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Guest Post: It’s Not If But When
Submitted by Luke Eastwood
It’s Not If But When
Since the 2008 crash there has been much talk about how the fundamentals have not been dealt with and the fact that the can has only been kicked down the road. Political mavericks and commentators such as Ron Paul have frequently pointed out that nothing has really changed and that we are heading for even bigger disasters ahead if we continue to play ostrich.
Likewise, the economic doom and gloom pundits – such as Peter Schiff, Marc Faber and Gerald Celente have been banging the drum for an unprecedented collapse that will make the 1929 western economic slump look like a tea party. First it was to be 2010, 2012, then 2013 and so on, but here we are still, in the tail end of 2015 and the dreaded collapse has still failed to materialise.
So, I’m sure that some people are probably wondering if these people are just carpet baggers, making a swift buck out of fear of an economic downturn. The truth is that we never left the economic downturn – we are currently in a period of manipulation that’s sole purpose is to mask the fact that there has not been a boom (or recovery if you like) to trigger the next bust.
The world economy is largely sustained by confidence and belief that pieces of paper (or digital records) have some inherent value relative to each other and relative to the physical realities of the world. In truth a paper note is worthless if people do not recognise its symbolic value or believe that the relationship between its value and the value of real-world objects (e.g. commodities) has been perverted or destroyed.
Of course, a carrot takes a similar amount of soil, water, sunlight and care to grow in California as it does in China or anywhere else, but in our insane financial system the relative value of the same carrot is vastly different in different places. Furthermore, if carrots are traded virtually on exchanges around the world the value of carrots becomes further removed again from its original value as a food items that requires a finite amount of resources to produce.
As with my ridiculous example, the value attributed to almost everything does not actually bear scrutiny, as the relationship between things and their value seems to be entirely arbitrary at this moment in time. Because this is the case, few people recognise the fact that the value of virtually everything is manipulated by both corporations and by governments. The idea that there is such a thing as a Free Market, that the laws of supply and demand dictate the value of items is now nonsense. While economists still spout the usual crap that they were taught at university and everyone in the corporate and governmental sectors play lip-service to established economic norms, the truth is that interventions are constant, albeit mostly covert.
While it is possible to manipulate the stock markets, the value of commodities and the value of currencies, then it will continue until it is no longer possible. This manipulation was always possible, but back in the days of stand-alone computer systems and trading tickets this was more difficult to achieve. Since the micro-processor revolution of the 1980’s financial markets have become computerised and now, thanks to open systems technology, everything can be connected to everything else. The technological revolution in finance has enabled the number of transactions to expand across the globe, but it has also vastly expanded the capacity for cheating – manipulation of prices.
All of the financial systems around the world are run by software, this may collect data feeds and present them in a coherent form, but software also enables data to be changed, sometimes explicitly through statistical analysis or by downright cheating. Obviously neither corporations or governments wish to admit to fixing figures, to precipitating rises in falls in currency, interest rates etc. through cheating – but in truth this is exactly what happens.
Even when they openly make adjustments (e.g. raising interest rates) the data used to justify such actions has been cooked up to fit the decision, rather than the decision being a reflection of underlying trends in the data. Data is statistically manipulated – through exclusion of unwanted inputs, skewing of the data, adjustment by a multitude of factors (e.g. seasonal) all of which is really a legitimised form of cheating.
Most people have no understanding of financial matters and even less understanding of how statistics can be used to change a data set to make the data say what you want, rather than interpreting it without bias. As a result of constant manipulation, both governments and corporations manage to convince themselves and the public at large that everything is ok, or very shortly will be ok.
So, in short, despite the fact that the world economy is really doing badly, we are not going to hear the truth until things are so bad that a statistical genius is unable to hide it. While confidence can be maintained the game will continue, with the average man in the street blissfully unaware that it is only trickery that prevents a total economic landslide.
The financial commentators I mentioned earlier are all aware of how the game works, however their predictions have been inaccurate so far because they failed to see the depth of the manipulation in play. It’s obvious that markets will eventually collapse, that economies will spin out of control, but in the meantime both governments and corporations will do everything they can to make everyone believe that the Emperor is indeed wearing clothes.
I’m not going to predict when a collapse is coming. I can see a gearing up for deeper financial, political and possibly military war between USA/EU against the BRICS nations, which could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. However, like everyone else, who is not party to advance knowledge of the trigger mechanism, I’m just going to have to wait it out and prepare for the worst.
A crash could be started deliberately, as has happened before, which will be preceded by quick exit of the smart money into physical assets (including carrots perhaps). I’d say that this scenario is highly likely, but that does not mean that some kind of perfect storm event will not blindside the movers and shakers and precipitate a crash despite everyone’s best efforts to maintain confidence.
As I said at the beginning, none of the fundamentals have improved. If anything the financial, environmental and social fundamentals of human society seem to have deteriorated further since 2008. All the evidence available, if interpreted honestly, points towards another deeper recession in the future. I have stopped listening to the doom and gloomers – I get on with my life without being fearful. However, I have made steps and continue to make further steps to ensure that when the inevitable crash does come its impact on my life will be as small as possible. I would advise anyone else who has not begun this process to begin immediately as it really is a case of - how long do we have left?
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Reich is just like Piketty. Both of them strive to divert attention away from what really drives inequality in order to save their particular economic priesthood from pitchforks.
No shit. Fuck that guy. And piketty. Their solution to EVERYTHING- give the government more money and more power over our lives. No thanks.
Extreme altruism: should you care for strangers at the expense of your family?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/22/extreme-altruism-should-you...
That is entirely up to each individual. What is not ok is forcing others, at gun point, to care for strangers at your expense. Which is what we have now.
Of course it's up to the individual but that broad is nuts.
She says that she doesn't care more about poor people she meets locally as opposed to those she's never met and she says that she gets no good feeling from giving charity. She does it because she feels compelled to do so without liking the fact that she does it. It's a bizarre mix of no empathy and extreme altruism. I might guess that this is some unusual manifestation sociopathy.
the bankers wont lose control. crash is not about them.
israel attacks iran, depopulation dominoes fall from that. that is the crash we need to perpare for, the elites depopulation dominoes.
the bankers wont lose control. crash is not about them.
israel attacks iran, depopulation dominoes fall from that. that is the crash we need to prepare for, the elites depopulation dominoes.
There's a difference between wanting to help people, and being emotionally compelled by one's own internal masochism...
This woman is not really helping others, she is scourging herself for some unknown inner reason. She sounds conflicted over her own perceived 'fortune' in life, and determined to punish herself for it.
Note the way she 'helps' one, only to immediately see her help as somehow taking something from some other, unknown needy person. So even when she DOES help others, her inner demon is compelled to declare that help as actually TAKING from someone else.
What is that really saying about the person she 'helps'? Do they not then become complicit in that 'denial' of help to others in her own mind? By NEEDING help, the needy are preventing her from...helping the needy. Giving her subconscious permission to resent the very people she is 'helping'.
She isn't helping anyone like that. She is just drawing them into her own internal conflicts in a way that allows her to share the blame with the needy who cross her path for her own inability to deal with their need.
A fascinating albeit extreme case which may provide some insight into the mind of progressive do-gooders. The part where she breaks down in tears because she ate a candy apple instead of buying antibiotics for poor people is tragically hilarious.
"She isn't helping anyone like that."
Actually she is. Any person who is really needy will just be glad to have her fork over what they need and (since they are likely not nuts like her) they won't care about her mental state, other than perhaps to feel pity.
She brings up interesting philosophical questions. Well, yes, if you give to one person, you can't give to another. Yes it is a question whether some local charity that helps people who aren't truly suffering, deserves more from you than a distant one that helps the actually starving. These are things that are worth working out if you are trying to do your best. However, having it be a part of your emotional life is pathetic.
I've recently had a chance to observe a group of about a hundred Japanese people interacting over a period of about 20 hours. It was a private concert held at someone's big estate on an island close to Hiroshima. Everyone seemed to constantly do something beneficial to the group (including a few of us foreigners). It was the exact oposite attitude I see in the UK or the US. Japanese seem to always put the interests of the group first. They also seem much happier than anywhere in the US and infinitely happer thatn the Brits.
I vote for extreme altruism over extreme autism
If you read the linked article, the woman who practices extreme altruism says that helping others doesn't make her happy. In fact, it makes her sad because by helping one person there are many others whom she can not help. What you saw in Japan was not an example of altruism but of voluntary interaction in which members of a group provide benefits to each other knowing that they can benefit from the reciprocal actions of others. You can see the same thing in the US among certain groups of people such as members of the same family or the same church.
indeed
The system works FEIN, just like the greedy socialist jews set it up.
"I have stopped listening to the doom and gloomers – I get on with my life without being fearful. However, I have made steps and continue to make further steps to ensure that when the inevitable crash does come its impact on my life will be as small as possible. I would advise anyone else who has not begun this process to begin immediately as it really is a case of - how long do we have left?"
Who knows. Best get ready, regardless:
http://readynutrition.com/resources/52-weeks-to-preparedness-an-introduc...
US Economic Recoveries in Perspective and Why This is The Worst
No doom, no gloom, just the facts in 11 simple charts Wall St. nor the Fed will ever acknowledge.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3538366-u-s-economic-recoveries-in-perspective-and-why-this-is-the-worst
I think many commenters on ZH could have said all that in one or two sentences.
{shrug}
Yeah, personally I'm doubling down on my gulag and carrot long trades.
One sentence - 12 words.
Long enough to in vest your cash in more tangibles and physical commodities.
Inflation and supply chain mismanagement make sure anything you need to sustain life costs more every year.
Either the dollar is worthless, or real stuff is worth more.
invest in what you can put under your own roof, and under your own control.
Call it a "material world hedge."
Thanks for the recapitulation of basic facts that the average ZH reader mumbles in his/her sleep.
Hoarde diapers and tampons, coffee and sugar, brandy and toilet paper, then you're king of the world when the SHTF and everybody will give you their physical Au.
"All of the financial systems around the world are run by software, this may collect data feeds and present them in a coherent form, but software also enables data to be changed, sometimes explicitly through statistical analysis or by downright cheating."
Whoa man. That's BIG news! This dude is a genius.
The desperate communists have me surrounded, crack me up. They are holding a hearing tomorrow with no due process, as usual. I guess me telling you that they were printing $750/head/day to process the smucks was the last straw, along with watching their system tank. I told Darpa they were going to blow up the system. Let the old-timers do what has to be done, and get on with your life.
Always interesting…
As I said at the beginning, none of the fundamentals have improved. If anything the financial, environmental and social fundamentals of human society seem to have deteriorated further since 2008. All the evidence available, if interpreted honestly, points towards another deeper recession in the future."
I agree that the manipulation will continue, until it can't.
And perhaps, therein lies the trigger. It's not so much about confidence being lost...
...as it is in worn out nerves simply losing it.
m
What good will physical Au do you if there is no productive output to purchase with it? A piece of bread will buy a bag of gold. Hoard the resources necessary to make bread.
If the FIRE economy crashes individuals will become more productive. Not only will they have to do so but they will finally be free to do so. And what makes you believe that one can't have both a five gallon bucket of flour and some gold or silver? Does bread evaporate in the presence of precious metals or visa versa?
Not a thing...
...unless ovens cost all the PM you got.
m
They'll have ovens in the camps. Big ovens.
Unless mankind suddenly forgets how to produce, there will continue to be "productive output." And depending on how necessary/desirable that produce is, it will (as Say's Law suggests) essentially create its own demand, particularly in the context of a global economic/monetary collapse.
What there will also almost certainly be, under such a scenario (where fiat currencies fail worldwide) is an acute shortage of money -- as in a commodity that is universally desirable, fungible, divisible, and durable. It is for this reason that the wisest so-called "preppers" accumulate not only a substantial store of food/essentials, but also gold, and especially silver (on account of its unique usefulness as a medium of exchange). No economy, global or local, can function satisfactorily in the absence of sound money. Furthermore, no one can reasonably hope to accumulate/store everything that is necessary for a tolerably comfortable subsistence. Consequently, those who lack universally acceptable money during the inevitable upcoming crisis will find themselves compelled to trade some of their precious stored commodities for something else they will discover to be acutely necessary; something that their preparations failed to take into account. Much better to have at your disposal an accumulated a supply of sound money when such an exigency arises.
it's called booze and cigs. seriously, I wil have preps for my family and i, and enough booze and cigs to get what i need from those around me.
Yes, ZH guys can recite this in their sleep. But nobody else gives a f*ck and will be shockingly blown away when everything falls apart. "But I thought the FED and our gov't had things under control since the financial crisis". - retards
hey luke! you talk like me (and jonathan papelbon) - old school. get ready and get through it!
That's it - damn - it was right there in front of me the whole time. I'm going long CARROTS!!!!!
Personally I prefer Danvers Half Long carrots. They produce a think, short root in my heavy soil rather than the stringy little nothings I get from standard seed.
I'm heavy into precious metals - lead and copper. Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Take care of those items and have the ability to protect it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPhw1Ldp0fg
The author made some good points that we've all heard before a million times. And to be fair, Peter Schiff never predicted a financial collapse on any time-line, he always says its coming but never "when". Author should research a little before calling people out.
Not sure how the article ends ..I stopped reading after this tidbit of wisdom...
Of course, a carrot takes a similar amount of soil, water, sunlight and care to grow in California as it does in China or anywhere else, but in our insane financial system the relative value of the same carrot is vastly different in different places. Furthermore, if carrots are traded virtually on exchanges around the world the value of carrots becomes further removed again from its original value as a food items that requires a finite amount of resources to produce.
Markets will have big sell-offs.
Economies will have big downturns.
BUT
There will NOT be any "crashes", ie collapses of economies, governments, currencies, etc.
There WILL be economic decline and stagnation, and a broad lowering of the quality of life, ie ROT, not crash.