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This Has Never Happened Before...

Phoenix Capital Research's picture




 

Something momentous is brewing in the markets.

Since 2009, the markets have always responded to Central Banking prodding. Whether it was the announcement of a new monetary program, interest rate cut, or even mere verbal promises of “doing whatever it takes,” Central Banks were always able to kick off a stock market rally when they wanted to.

Perhaps the best example of this was the US Federal Reserve’s ability to ignite the S&P 500 when it came dangerously close to collapsing.

I use the 50-week moving average as the standard for determining a bull market vs. a market collapse. When stocks are above their 50-week moving average, they are in a bull market. When they break below it, they are in danger of a collapse.

As you can see in the below chart, this line has been of great import for stocks in the past.

 

 

Once the Fed managed to kick off a new bull market in 2009, it became imperative to maintain the upwards momentum. As you can see in the chart below, there were two times in which the S&P 500 was in danger of ending this by breaking below the 50-week moving average: once in 2010 and again in 2011.

Both times the Federal Reserve was able to reverse this by announcing a new monetary program: QE 2 and Operation Twist, respectively.

 

 

The Fed also implemented policies to propel stocks higher when they hit this line in 2012, first by promising QE 3 and then unleashing QE 3 in September and November 2012 respectively.

 

 

Because the Fed was always willing to step in to prop up stocks any time they were in danger of breaking down, investors became conditioned to always assume the Fed could ignite a market rally.

Indeed, by the time 2014 rolled around, investors were so conditioned to believe in the Fed's omnipotence that it only took a non-voting Fed President to suggest a change in monetary policy to boost stocks when they came dangerously close to breaking down in October 2014.

 

 

Which brings us to today.

Stocks have cratered, slicing through the 50-week moving average with little difficulty. The Fed, unable to announce a new QE program due to political pressure (the media has picked up the narrative that QE increases wealth inequality) decided to deal with this by maintaining interest rates at zero at a time when over 80% of economists thought it was time to raise them.

Despite this, stocks barely bounced and began to break down again.

 

 

This has NEVER happened before. Previously even a hint of monetary loosening was enough to make stocks rally hard. This time around the Fed clearly acted to support the markets and the markets didn’t respond.

A TECTONIC shift has begun in the markets, if they no longer respond to the Fed's efforts to boost them, then it is GAME. SET. MATCH. for the Fed and its policies.

At that point, the END GAME will begin, ushering in a crisis that will make 2008 look like a joke.

Smart investors are preparing now, BEFORE it hits.

If you've yet to take action to prepare for this, we offer a FREE investment report called the Financial Crisis "Round Two" Survival Guide that outlines simple, easy to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from it, but actually produce profits.

We made 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

To pick up yours, swing by….

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/roundtwo-ZH.html

Best Regards

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE e-letter: www.gainspainscapital.com

 

 

 

 

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Tue, 09/29/2015 - 19:22 | 6608692 honestann
honestann's picture

Failure to raise rates is NOT the same as:
A:  lowering rates.
B:  another QE.

It remains to be seen what printing and distributing another $4T to $16T of fiat debt does to markets...

And for how long the effect lasts...  :-o

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 17:48 | 6608262 novictim
novictim's picture

The "Smart money" has already ditched this market.

This has to be the most obvious and inevitable stock crash in history.

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 19:15 | 6608650 TongueStun
TongueStun's picture

Smart money ditched this BS back after BOVESPA RISE 144%...and that was 2012

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 09:27 | 6606029 Grandad Grumps
Grandad Grumps's picture

This has been the plan all along. The same people/entities are still in control.

Wake me when Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Blackrock suddenly go out of business.

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 19:20 | 6608667 TongueStun
TongueStun's picture

Daime Jewmon....Jews, I'm not a jew but my wife and kids are jews, and ........

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 22:58 | 6605226 wiscodave
wiscodave's picture

As the old Boy Scout saying is "Be prepared".

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 18:30 | 6604200 newnormaleconomics
newnormaleconomics's picture

The TBTE banks' offshore shadow banking pass-through entities have turned off their HFT bots' bids, preparing to profit from shorting the bloody bleeping $h!t out of equity futures, junk, and EM debt, as they did for Dotcom stocks in 2000 and junk mortgage debt in 2007. 

GS and JPM will take down C, BAC, DB, RBS, BCS, and HSBC this time around. 

The most undervalued asset today is cash . . . and mattresses and safes in which to keep it. 

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 18:06 | 6604105 vinny vici
vinny vici's picture

Although the Fed's every whisper is closely analyzed, along with the FOMC minutes, it's basic purpose when it was established, was to stabilize the currency, an enterprise in which it has grossly failed.  Then the pols decided to saddle the Fed with the so-called "full employment" mandate, which became the "dual mandate." 

The dual mandate was doomed to failure from the beginning for a variety of reasons, not least the ability to measure and 'forecast' employment.

Now, we are seeing that yet another mandate (informal) has been somehow laid upon the shoulders of the Fed: bouy the equity markets.  Seeing that its newfound QE and Twist programs seemed to work, and in combination with ZIRP (to keep the debt service costs for the Treasury down) the fed, and investors at large, are now epoplectic as they see that these so-called 'tools' (now Yellen's 'tools') don't work anymore. 

Well, of course these Fed 'tools' don't work because now investors see that the 'funny mentals' are falling down before their very eyes and things just aren't worth the toll.  So let's blame this effect on China and EM.  Couldn't be anything wrong with domestic business conditions, could it? 

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 15:49 | 6603186 Md4
Md4's picture

A TECTONIC shift has begun in the markets, if they no longer respond to the Fed's efforts to boost them, then it is GAME. SET. MATCH. for the Fed and its policies."

The muted response to the Fed is MUCH more about China...than anything else.

I fully expect the Fed to pull out all the stops when the unwind starts, but...

...the rackets are GLUED to China at this point. I'll wager a lot of faith in what the PBOC and Chinese government has been saying in recent years is being debunked, as it should've been. Anyone who understood the central cause of the global economy's problem, can't come to any other conclusion than China MUST fail.

We already see major layoffs (40%) in one commodities producer, and that's just the tiny tip of that iceberg.

Today, China put up billboard's suggesting the Yuan will soon be a gold-backed reserve currency. They've been hatching their own propaganda campaign to persuade racketeers to believe they are in a relative position of strength.

I couldn't care if they had all the gold the world ever mined in their vaults...they are far, far weaker than they would have us believe, and they have 1.3 billion people to keep hopeful and civil. 1.3 billion...

THAT'S the show to watch, as it all gets started, and there's nothing that can be done about it. I'm convinced, although I can always be mistaken, though our own econo-disaster will leave a much bigger earthly impression, it starts in China.

The racket's eyes are on that place...not Yellen or the Fed...

...they'll get back to her when it all goes up.

Shaking like addicts needing a fix, of course.

m

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 15:57 | 6603277 Md4
Md4's picture

You know...

This reminds me kinda of a sci-fi movie where the mad scientist (greedy western corporations that outsourced us here) created a new creature (China), that started out ok, began growing massively, started going berserk one day, and, killed the "master" that created it...

...just before it self-destructed.

if only it were just a movie...

m

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 14:49 | 6602901 Ms No
Ms No's picture

The CB's unleash the mother of all QEs and then everybody sells into the rally within 12 weeks, two years later many are sitting at a pinecone fire cooking a $2,000 dollar can of baked beans talking about rumors of a new currency.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 13:43 | 6602575 ItsDanger
ItsDanger's picture

Need new headlines.  How many times have we read that this has never happened before?  September 28, 2015: This has never happened before!

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 13:26 | 6602509 zrussell
zrussell's picture

The next FED strategy is easy to identify!

 

CFE1     Consumer Funded Easing (of the banks)

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:33 | 6601939 Grandad Grumps
Grandad Grumps's picture

JMHO, this is simply preparation for the global savior to arrive down the road.

1. The Fed and many other of the current institutions must be discreditied.
2. People must be made desperate.
3. The solution to all of the people's problems must be presented to them ... for a small price (their freedom)

The last 7 years have been the pre-setup for the events to come. The people have been slowly fed the set-up material through the so called alternative media. Dissatisfaction has been building.

Now the set-up material is going mainstream, with the early adopters of the alternative media leaked material being used as experts. There will still be many denyers until the foretold/leaked doom and gloom manifests itself through a combination of overt acts by the controllers and a self fulfilling prophesy.

We are still being played. The controllers are working both sides of the street.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 20:04 | 6604567 The Darwin Mode
The Darwin Mode's picture

I think a lot of us see it this way, GG. I'm tempted to say it's obvious, but there is still too much unknown when one considers geopolitical variables and the range of contrasting false flag options on the table.

Some suggest an Israeli dirty bomb on American soil could set in motion a Hegellian global reset orchestration. But then it might be an EMP disturbance of national scale that effects such a reset, with ensuing events playing out differently. A cyberattack on Wall Street might be the likeliest false flag operation, but it too would introduce a different kind of paradigm shift than would the other two.

Who knows what TPTB have on the table; the end destination is presumably the same, but the path down which we will be herded is presently unknowable.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 21:44 | 6604982 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

the israelis have already done a dirty bomb on american soil.  it doesn't get a lot dirtier than the asbestos-packed wtc turned to fine, misting dust (and whatever that was that kept the steel hot for months underground and underwater).  if you are waiting, wait no more.

these guys are not as smart as they (and, perhaps, you) think.  were they, people as dumb and unconnected as i would not have seen through their ruse.  i mean, they know they're going to have the tower collapses videoed many times and yet the clearest, most instantly convincing disproof of the cover story is magnified, slow-motion video of the collapses.  buffoonery.  were they not so powerful and the justice system and media so utterly owned by co-conspirators, dick cheney would be in prison and chelsea manning would be free.

mind by mind.  do your part.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsoY3AIRUGA.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GNww9cmZPo

http://www.luogocomune.net/site/modules/sections/index.php?op=viewarticl...

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 03:55 | 6605582 jcdenton
jcdenton's picture

It wasn't a dirty bomb. And, yes the whole plan was to take down the financial system in 2001 ..

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/05/23/mapping-fort-lee-the-truth-behin...

And it was much, much more than Mossad. Dirty bombs don't turn steel into molten lava, that give off significant radiation signatures. Israel got their nukes from Texas. A foreign country just doesn't waltz into Texas and buy nuclear material.  You have to know somebody ..

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 00:50 | 6605427 Cosmicserpent
Cosmicserpent's picture

Teh Stoopid! It burns!

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:33 | 6601938 IMACOINNUT
IMACOINNUT's picture

It's a pleasure for me to read phoenix capitol's material as they make it sound as if the world still responds in normalcy and if only for a few seconds it provides a happy twist. Thanks for the moment.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:01 | 6601804 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

Dont forget when ever it suits them they simply change the rules. Reshuffle the deck add a few extra aces into their hands.

 Margine calls are for the little fishes first. Oh most of the exits will be bolted.

 I will say this about these crooks. They are consistant.

 You were warned.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 15:11 | 6602981 daveO
daveO's picture

Right. "the (NYC bankster owned) media has picked up the narrative that QE increases wealth inequality"-this is a signal of their change. The media never talks against their owners. Their reserves are stocked with 2 and half trillion dollars, earning .25%. QE's not currently necessary, but raising rates might cause debt slave defaults.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 10:15 | 6601618 CHoward
CHoward's picture

When your faith in a system fails, everything fails.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 10:04 | 6601554 messymerry
messymerry's picture

Not.  When the market starts to seriously collapse, the CBs will declare a force majeure and unleash the mother of all QEs. 

;-D   

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 14:52 | 6602917 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, and kill all fiat.

Global Weimar!!!!

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:44 | 6601989 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

I figure hyper-inflation and outlawing cash, and then things fall apart with "how far?" being the only question......

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 10:34 | 6601697 Elliott Eldrich
Elliott Eldrich's picture

"Not.  When the market starts to seriously collapse, the CBs will declare a force majeure and unleash the mother of all QEs."

Bingo! You nailed that one right on the head. They get desperate enough, they may even consider giving a few pennies to the slaves!

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:13 | 6601856 messymerry
messymerry's picture

Ha!  Fat chance on the pennies, but they will let us eat cake.

Probably yellowcake,,,

;-D   

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 12:42 | 6606746 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

I think what has been discovered is that the vacuum-tube algo-bots are now self-aware and no longer need, nor do they care about fiat money pumping in order to live.

The next part after Sky-Net becomes self-aware is it turns violently agains the humans and begins to destroy them and everything else in the world.

Didn't anybody learn anything from Terminator?

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