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Pending Home Sales Miss Fourth Month In A Row, As Northeast Weighs On Index
While the rest of the US economy was slowly but surely reentering a recession, with the only two pieces of silver lining being the relatively strong, if unbelievable, jobs data (driven by low-wage paying jobs) and the US housing market, moments ago we just got the latest confirmation that one of these two final anchors is slowly falling apart when the perpetually optimistic housing industry organization, NAR, reported that August pending home sales dropped -1.4%, on expectations of a 0.4% increase, and down from a 0.5% jump the month before. Confirming that the Chinese "hot money parking" bid is finally ending, this was the fourth consecutive miss in a row.
The alway entertaining Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, did his best to put some much needed lipstick on the pig saying that "even with the modest decline in contract signings, demand continues to outpace housing supply and elevate price growth in numerous markets. "Pending sales have leveled off since mid–summer, with buyers being bounded by rising prices and few available and affordable properties within their budget," he said. "Even with existing–housing supply barely budging all summer and no relief coming from new construction, contract activity is still higher than earlier this year and a year ago."
Don't worry Larry, this won't continue much longer: :according to Yun, sales in the coming months should be able to roughly maintain their current pace." However, even Larry is starting to warn that the future is no longer so bright: "he warns that there are looming speed bumps that have the potential to impact housing."
The only question is who to blame it on:
"The possibility of a government shutdown and any ongoing instability in the equity markets could cause some households to put off buying for the time being," adds Yun. "Furthermore, adapting to the changes being implemented next month in the mortgage closing process could delay some sales."
The breakdown shows that the traditional hot bed of pending home sales, the Northeast (NYC, Boston, DC) led the drop: here the Pending home sales index fell 5.6 percent to 93.3 in August. In the Midwest the index inched down 0.4 percent to 107.4 in August, and is now 6.5 percent above August 2014. Pending home sales in the South declined 2.2 percent to an index of 121.5 in August but are still 4.1 percent above last August. The only thing keeping up the pending home sales market remains California, and the West rose 1.8 percent in August.
And as we explained previously, once China fully cracks down on those pesky hot money outflows, one can kiss the California "pending" housing market goodbye.
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While the rest of the US economy was hastening reentering a deeper depression,
There, fixed that intro for ya Tyler. Who love you babe?
Shitty August/September weather....all those Tornadoes and Hurricanes. I will admit that I'd not buy a house in S Cali.. or Vegas, or um.....
"Seems it never rains in Southern California
Seems I've often heard that kind of talk before
It never rains in California, but girl, don't they warn ya
It pours, man, it pours"
Have a coworker whose sister-in-law is a realtor and she told him that she's never seen it this slow here in the NoVa/ DC burbs before, even during the crash. She said the last year she was nonstop busy but since July it's been dead. Home prices are dropping here but still nowhere near where they need to be before I buy. It's a positive trend though.
Xi Jingping is limiting Billions in Loot from moving out of China has to hurt Cali RE. It's devastating Macau and Singapore.
The legitimate money can still be transferred with some limitations from what I've read but the hundreds of millions of looted money is now substantially stopped.
Very close friend is in Real Estate on the north side of Atlanta - they're closing 150-200 properties per month. Selling like hot cakes. Over here in the Athens, GA area things are moving pretty well, too. I'm sure there are 'hot' spots - there always are.
This'll just make the builders and realtors more optimistic.......
Home sales turn downward in Northeast. Unforeseen lower temperatures blamed. Pending = "caint get a mortgage".
Blame it on the pending winter ahead and with it all that cold weather. Damn.
Assad "The Butcher" must be responsible!
Around here it's "inventory is going up!" That means things are great.
In the meantime everyone in the world is getting their real estate license. The shit show for that will be fun to watch.
'House flipping' seminars from all of the usual suspects in that slimy sector have been the ad of choice on radio stations for long about 3 years running. Never thought it would carry this far, but it just shows that indeed this is going to be the Mother of all economic Fuckers when the bow finally goes vertical.
It's not just that, it's very easy to get a real estate license and there are no jobs out there to be had. If you can take a couple classes and cough up some money (or put it on a credit card) then you're a real estate agent. It doesn't matter if you're dumb as shit or can't speak english.
How are the prices of RVs? Q99x2's spaceship has become uninhabitable due to the amount of FRAUDulent government statistics entering into its information gathering system.
Swirling the drain of dubiousness, Mr. Lawrence Yun, which in his future, sure as hell won't be Fun.
Meanwhile, looks like the selling is over. Time to take the indexes green for the day.
Chinese hot money went into West coast R.E. For New England, boomers are downsizing and moving south. Sw Florida where I live has entered bubble territory. New England has a long way to correct. The next generations can afford those homes and taxes making $35k a year unless its really out in the sticks.
Some anecdotal reporting on the RE up here in NH (northern half).
1). Inventory is building rapidly.
2). Most sellers still insist on listing with a "wishing price" instead of realizing it's a buyers market and starting with a lower price. Those homes are just sitting there, as are most anyway.
3). Homes in the lower pricing bracket (100-200K) are moving the best but still slow.
4). Lots of inventory priced in the 300-500K range, some are moving if they are unique (waterfront, etc) but most have gone months without selling.
5). Property taxes are fucking rediculous. I'm seeing some homes that have taxes equal to 2%+ of the listed selling price/ year. That's fucking nuts, and unsustainable, IMO. The yearly tax bill is almost as much as the annual house payment to buy it!
The one aspect of this crash that I'm going to enjoy the most is when the smug bastards at the town office realize that they are fucked out of a job because no one can pay their property tax bill. Sure, folks could lose their homes, that I DON"T look forward to and hopefully there will be a moratorium on taxes so people can stay in their homes (I don't think widespread foreclosures are in the future because of civil unrest issues). But, I don't see how the fuckers who have jacked the mill rate on property taxes up year after year (while awarding themselves both pay and pension raises) come out of this unscathed. That will be fun to watch.
Since June. Seems to have stopped raining in Northeast too. Great wweather should have bee good for real estate. Guess Not.
It started in July, here. Everyone must be busy enjoying the nice weather.
The weather was too nice to be buying homes.
Gas is too cheap to be driving all around looking at houses.
Unforeseen lower temperatures blame
Bull shit more like over priced shoddy tinder boxes no one can actually afford .
I live in northern NH, near the Canadian border. Most of the paper mills have closed. The factories that haven't left yet are run-down and planning to move to Mexico or close down entirely. Population has been dropping for two decades, leaving behind those who choose to live on the taxpayers back as parasites.
The growth industry here is now building prisons and stocking them with felons from all over creation. Many of them choose to live here upon release. How do you think that is working out?
So, just how are real estate sales gonna pick up in my neck of the woods? A nearby city is requesting government funds to knock down empty housing as hundreds of rotting homes are a fire hazard. Nobody wants them, nor can most even afford the taxes and upkeep if these homes were given to them for free.
Not to mention that will all the ex-cons roaming around here you'd have to build a moat and erect razor wire just to sleep safely at night.
Exceptional America. Land of the Free.
They're running commercials adnauseum in the Phoenix area telling people not to sell their homes because the market is still bottom bouncing and they should rent their houses out to capture income and tax incentives. Mmmkay...
ITS DA WEATHER! AKS ANYBODY ON CNBC!