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This Bear Is Just Waking From Hibernation
Submitted by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,
“Every man has a right to his own opinion, but no man has a right to be wrong in his facts” ? Bernard M. Baruch
“The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible.” ? Bernard M. Baruch
As the market drops 200 to 300 points daily on a fairly frequent basis these days, and has now dropped 13% in the last four months, John Hussman’s valuation analysis based upon historical facts is proving to be accurate. He’s not an “I told you so” type of person, but I am. The MSM stories follow the same old storyline – this is just a correction, time to buy the dip, stocks are undervalued, the Fed won’t let the market fall. We’ve been here before, twice in the last fifteen years. Wall Street and their media mouthpieces attempted to spread misinformation about the nature of the markets in 2000 and 2007, as epic bear markets were just getting underway. John Hussman cut through their crap then and he is cutting through it now.
“Is our profession really so lazy that we would advise people to risk their financial security based on tinker-toy models and pretty pictures that we don’t even have the rigor to test historically? Investors appear eager to ‘scoop up’ so-called ‘bargains’ on the belief that stocks are ‘cheap relative to bonds.’ All of this is predicated on the belief that profit margins will remain at record highs, that the Fed Model is correct, and that P/E ratios based on extremely elevated measures of earnings should be evaluated based on norms for much more restrained measures of earnings. Based on daily closing prices, the S&P 500 has not even experienced a 10% correction, yet the recent decline has been characterized as if investors are acting ‘like the world is about to end.’ This is not the pinnacle of human irrationality, but in fact, quite a shallow selloff from a historical standpoint. The fact that Wall Street is branding it otherwise is evidence that investors have completely forgotten how deep the market’s losses can periodically become.”
Hussman Weekly Market Comment, August 2007
Long-Term Evidence on the Fed Model and Forward Operating P/E Ratios
“Given the damage already wrought on the Nasdaq, there is a natural inclination to buy the dip. We believe that there is little merit in doing so. The current market climate is characterized by extremely unfavorable valuations, unfavorable trend uniformity, and hostile yield trends. This combination is what we define as a Crash Warning, and this climate has historically occurred in less than 4% of market history. That 4% of market history includes the 1929 crash and the 1987 crash, as well as a number of less memorable crashes and panics. We prefer to hedge until there is a rational prospect for market gains. When valuations are favorable, stocks are attractive from the standpoint of ‘investment’ – meaning that stock prices are attractive compared to the conservatively discounted value of cash flows which will be thrown off in the future. When trend uniformity is favorable, stocks are attractive from the standpoint of ‘speculation’ – meaning that regardless of valuation, investors are displaying an increased tolerance for risk which favors a further advance in prices.”
Hussman Investment Research & Insight, November 2000
The Dow has dropped 2,300 points with no particular event responsible. The Fed has continued to delay their perennially imminent interest rate increase, six years into a supposed economic recovery. Bernanke declared he would raise rates when unemployment reached 6.5%. According to BLS propaganda, that happened sixteen months ago. The Fed will not be coming to the rescue. Their credibility is shot. This correction is just the beginning. As Hussman points out, this market is still overvalued and primed for a vertical drop. The collapse of Glencore and their $18 billion derivatives book seems like as good a trigger as any.
If there is a single pertinent lesson from history at present, it is that once obscenely overvalued, overvalued, overbullish market conditions are followed by deterioration in market internals (what we used to call “trend uniformity”), the equity market becomes vulnerable to vertical air-pockets, panics and crashes that don’t limit themselves simply because short-term conditions appear “oversold.”
When you tell people in self denial the market could drop 40% in a few months, they think you are crazy. They declare this could never happen. They would get out of the market before it would fall vertically. Their memories are conveniently short as their normalcy bias and cognitive dissonance blind them to what happened over three months in 2008/2009.
So here’s an interesting question: how quickly, historically, have valuations tended to mean-revert? The answer is a bit tricky, because it depends on the condition of market internals. If valuations are elevated and market internals are unfavorable, valuations can retreat vertically. In 2008, for example, the market went from steep overvaluation to slight undervaluation within the span of three months, losing over 40% of its value. On the other hand, rich valuations have periodically been sustained for long periods of time, as they were in the late-1990s and in recent years, because investors stayed in a risk-seeking mood, as evidenced by uniformly favorable market internals.
Now for the really bad news. When markets are extremely overvalued, reversion to the mean requires a long period of undervaluation. They call this a secular bear market. We had one from 1966 to 1982. This one began in 2000 and will likely extend into the early 2020’s. We’ve now had two cyclical bear markets and one cyclical bull market within this secular bear market. Secular bear markets end with extremely low valuations (PE ratios of 10, Price to Book values under 1.0, Price to Sales ratios under 1.0). We are a long long way from the bottom of this secular bear.
What the historical evidence shows is this. First, the overvaluation or undervaluation of the market, on reliable measures, is generally “worked off” over a period of about 12 years, on average. That’s mean-reversion, but that’s not where the process ends. Rather, the valuation extremes of the market tend to be fully inverted over a horizon of about 18-21 years; ending with extremes of the same degree but in the opposite direction. That’s what we’ll call “mean-inversion.” Statistically, a period of somewhere close to two decades has typically stood between the wildest exuberance and the deepest despair on Wall Street, and vice-versa.
While the concept of mean-inversion seems strange – almost preposterous – it actually aligns very well with what we know about so-called “secular” market phases. Specifically, we can describe a “secular bull market” as a period that comprises a number of individual bull-bear market cycles, typically reaching successively higher valuations at the peak of each bull market advance. Conversely, a “secular bear market” comprises a number of individual bull-bear market cycles, typically reaching successively lower at the trough of each bull market decline. These “secular” bull and bear phases are each commonly recognized as lasting somewhere about two decades.
As usual, and expected, the perennial bulls working on Wall Street and blathering on the boob tube, care not a wit for history, facts, or the truth about markets. They are driven by emotion. Greed and fear alternate as human beings never change. We don’t improve over time. Our arrogance, hubris and delusional thinking always bite us in the ass. John Hussman provides the lesson, but the students aren’t paying attention. They are focused on the latest tweet or new social media IPO.
Following the panic of 1908, the stock market enjoyed total returns averaging 14% annually until the 1929 peak. The culmination of that advance was a 9-year period when stocks enjoyed total returns averaging nearly 26% annually. The most memorable secular bear period in U.S. history then began, running from 1929-1949. During those two decades, the S&P 500 would turn in a nominal total return of less than 1% annually, including an interim loss approaching 90%, and a negative real return overall. That period was followed by a secular bull phase from 1950-1965, during which the S&P 500 turned in a nominal total return of about 17.5% annually. The secular bear period that followed from 1965-1982 again left investors with a negative real return after inflation. The 1982-2000 advance represented a classic secular bull market period, and produced a total return for the S&P 500 averaging 20% annually. By the 2000 peak, valuations were so extreme that reliable valuation measures accurately projected negative total returns on a 10-year horizon (as we estimated at the time). The nominal total return of the S&P 500 since the 2000 peak has averaged just 3.5% annually, but even that gain is entirely due to the fact that valuations have again been pushed to offensive extremes. We fully expect that entire total return to be wiped out over the completion of the current market cycle. Doing so would not even bring the most reliable valuation measures back to their historical norms.
Remember the good old days of 2000? Budgets were practically in balance. Over 67% of working age Americans had a job. There were no American initiated wars raging in the world. The stock market was reaching new highs. Since 2000, the country has essentially been in recession, despite the fake economic propaganda peddled to the masses. The stock market peak was the end of the secular bull market. The market will need to drop by approximately 70% to reach its secular low. That can happen rapidly over the next couple years or drag on for another 5 to 7 years. But it will happen.
The beginning and end of secular phases are generally identified on a valuation basis, not on a price basis, so we continue to view the most recent secular peak as being 2000, even though prices are higher today.
The 2009 low is often discussed as a “secular” valuation trough. It didn’t even come close. While I did emphasize after the 2008 plunge that stocks had become undervalued relative to historical norms, remember that valuations similar to the 2009 trough were followed, in the Depression, by a further two-thirds loss in the value of the stock market. The market would have had to decline by an additional 50% to match the valuations observed at prior secular lows. I’ve regularly detailed the challenges that followed from my insistence on stress-testing our methods against Depression-era data, and how we fully addressed them in mid-2014. We don’t require anything near valuation levels of 2009, much less 1974 or 1982, in order to encourage a constructive position – provided that we observe an improvement in market internals. But investors shouldn’t kid themselves into thinking that some 18-20 year “count” began in 2009 from which many more years of advancing prices should follow, despite obscene valuations that already eclipse those of 1907, 1929, 1937, 1965, 1972, 1987, and 2007.
If there’s any “count” to be considered, investors might consider the one that began at the 2000 peak. They might also consider that the market peak in May of this year reached valuations more extreme than we observed at the beginning of every secular bear phase except 2000. The good news here is not only that secular bear markets contain a series of individual cyclical bull market advances, but also that the low of a secular bear, from a price perspective, has typically occurred earlier than the low from a valuation perspective (for example, the lowest price of the 1965-1982 secular bear was actually in late-1974).
I wonder how many willfully ignorant investors can handle a 50% to 70% haircut in their 401k, especially if they are over 50 years old. I wonder how many people still trust Jim Cramer and the Wall Street muppet fleecing machine to tell them the truth about the markets. The saddest part of this entire Federal Reserve created debacle is there is no place to hide. Bonds yielding 2% will provide a negative real return over the next ten years. Real Estate is at least 30% overvalued nationally, and as much as 60% overvalued in hot markets like San Francisco, Miami and NYC. The bear market will ravage all markets. I wonder how much angrier the populace will become when the current recession results in more job losses, bankruptcies and revelations of Wall Street malfeasance. Beware of the bear.
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how many willfully ignorant investors can handle a 50% to 70% haircut in their 401k
If the stock market falls 50% to 70%, the US economy will take at least a decade to recover since the wealth effect from the stock market was keeping the economy going.
A decade??? With the Fed and Congress helping??? I see piles of smoking rubble...everywhere.....
That is the most generic picture of a Bear on the internet. He could have done better.
Better?
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/11/24/article-1229998-075939A4000005DC-320_634x637.jpg
Damn. At a zoo?
Russia STRONG!
Not really their population demographics suck but at-least they recognize it and have very pro-household formation and reproduction incentives via tax and Government policy. All the other Western Nations seem to be purposefully doing everything they can to destroy the family unit and discourage reproduction especially of those that are productive members of society.
I can only laugh when ZH mocks Gartman for always being wrong while ZH predictions of stock market doom have been nothing but bullish indicators.
Think I'll buy some calls today. Thanks ZH! :)
Good luck buddy, for short term bounce, sure why not but this baby is going down.
Funny Money; you're either a clown or a full-blown Moron. Since you're incapable of any critical thought on your own, why not piggy-back another long-tongued, empty-headed fool, Jim Cramer.
Allow me to write them for you.
100 years from now (if the world isn't a nuclear wasteland) people will wonder what those cast bull and bear were for. Maybe, just maybe those megaliths in south america WERE from a much higher form of civilization, and the human condition is continual collapse over time not advancement.
"Indian Chief "Two Eagles" was asked by a white U.S. government official, 'You have observed the white man for 90 years. You've seen his progress, and the damage he's done."
The Chief nodded in agreement.
The official continued, "Considering all these events, in your opinion where did the white man go wrong?"
The Chief stared at the government official then replied, "When white man find land, Indians runnning it, no taxes, no debt, plenty buffalo, plenty beaver, clean water, women did all the work, Medicine man free. Indian man spend all day hunting and fishing; all night having sex."
Then the Chief leaned back and smiled, "Only white man dumb enough to think he could improve a system like that.""
I guess we just aren't satisfied with, Keep it simple stupid.
We all just need to endeavuor to perservere
I think white man went wrong because white woman are more expensive. A buffalo skin ain't gonna cut it.
I think white man went wrong because white woman are more expensive. A buffalo skin ain't gonna cut it.
The bull would be thought to be a fake golden calf. The bear; not sure.
Bears just love those chew toys once they tear the wrapper off.
This bear appears to be especially viscious. Perhaps because he has been kept locked in a cage for 15 years.
It never ceases to amaze me that people will have 5-100K in the "market" but have a home mortgage of 200K (or have a mortgage at all for that matter), auto loans and CC debt. Worse yet, they are the people that other go to for advice.
A 50-70% crash and we aint never coming back. Fear the walking dead coming soon.
It will be the literal dead. EBT's will stop, and all the gov't dependents across the country willl lift their fat asses out of their gov't paid for recliners to go do "something" about the problem and will be met head on by the police state they kept voting for. They will be tossed in FEMA camps or killed out right. All those s'heads who thought the gov't was the answer will be taken donw by the same entity they empowered.
More than likely they'll be crawling through your back window after you've run out of ammo and while you are taking a short nap.
Stock up on 22's for that running out of ammo stuff. Better than nuttin.
During the depression in the 1930's my Great grandparents handed out potatoes to kids every day at the same time, and my grandmother would make pies and leave them on the windowsill for the MEN to come and steal, because they had too much pride to stand in line with the kids and take the potatoes.
Nobody ever fucked with them, and if anybody ever did try to fuck with them, the rest of the people in the neighborhood would protect them.
People were different then. What's pride? Sad to say.
I have heard this frequently, "when the EBT's stop", but seriously, why will they stop? All the government has to do is print the money. Isn't the real question going to end up being how much those EBT payments are worth?
Including the Wall and 'K' Street Looters...
How is it going to recover? Raise taxes more? Ship out more manufacturing jobs? More illegal workers? More H1-B's? Eat more raising our obesity rates? Increase medical costs? Lower wages? Shittier jobs? Higher costs for education?
When you find the magical pixie dust that we can sprinkle over this shit mound of an "economy" and our "market" fixing all this crap you let me know.
FOOL !!! haven't you listened to Yellen ?!?!? Negative interest rates for the WIN !!! Now go take out a huge loan and buy yourself a house.
WHAT??!!??!
-you aren't going to buy a new car every three years ( times 2 for your spouse)?
-you aren't going to keep buying bigger and bigger homes to cash out of when you are 70 (if you or i even make it there)?
-you aren't going to spend $3,500.00 on cheap junk each and every christmas for the rest of your life...your kids need new i-crap11's, x-box9's, ps7's!! How dare you deny them their rights?
-new lawnmower with 95horsepower tractor, your neighbor just got last years model with 88hp...you need to upgrade!
Yeah...this thing is finished. Unfortunately the ecoMENTALLYILList's will get their sustainability. CO2 emission reductions will usher in an ice age and we will all starve (the good side to global warming is food) as the mid-west is in snow 10 months of the year. Oh well, at least VW did try to help keep us warm for a while longer.
It isn't as if all who don't continue monetary support of corporations by constant indebtedness will be taxed on their savings accounts or like they will ban cash so you cannot keep something for yourself for personal use... oh wait.
I don't know how cocaine (magic pixie dust) will fix this, it is one hell of a drug though.
People must figure that well if it crashes wait a few years and the equities market would come right back. Just like it did after '09. But maybe it won't next time.
It seems to me the Fed has been teaching the wrong lesson to investors.
Why do the woefully ignorant put their money into a 401K in the first place? That was a very hard lesson I learned after the first Internet bubble burst.
Why? For fuck's sake, this is a fucking government mandate depending on the company or agency most people work for!!!!
See the fucking problem yet?
The best you can do if you can't get around it is:
put in to the maximum match, get your penalties and taxes covered using OPM (your employer's) and cash it out repeatedly. Greed keeps people from paying the penalties, it is still free up to that point at least...take it out!
Yes, of course, but I am not being totally fair and many can also transfer to money markets where they will not lose anything, but don't make anything either. The wife parked her money there until Bernanke mentioned doing QE. Jumped back in, and is not back in money markets. Full circle but basically more than doubled her 401k, now the penalties don't look so bad honestly. But then what, to the mattress?
"Why do the woefully ignorant put their money into a 401K in the first place? That was a very hard lesson I learned after the first Internet bubble burst."
Maybe don't sell at the bottom next time?
What kind of woefully ignorant do not make some attempt to invest their money somewhere so as not to lose 10% of it every year to inflation by keeping it in a checking account?
wealth effect of the wealthy stealing from the middle and lower class and piling debt on to the next generation. We will be lucky if 30 years from now we have recovered from the damage of rescue the rich and screw everyone else. Please do explain why my rescue money gave Lloyd Blankfein a BILLION DOLLARS. I didn't get a penny and his corrupt firm broke the financial system by GAMBLING. An economy is not built on gamblers trading derviatives, math tricks of pumping a stock market to records or sending real estate to a record! Wall Street has lost its way...as the gamblers are rewarded for losing or winning. Main Street is gutted and taxes(not directly wall streets fault...just the crooks they back to be elected) are crushing people. There was never a real recovery for the 80%. But real economics always finds a way to destroy the crooked...and it is happending. No rescue for Wall Street next time!
record stock market and yet incomes haven't recovered.... time to break the crooked banks
You have to know when to hold them...know when to fold them...know when to walk away...know when to run... Kenny Rogers
run , run now.
I have a neighbor that first off still has his Obama signs in his garage and blames Bush still for everything. I pulled all of my stocks at 18,000...and so did several of my friends. We all have inheritances from recent passongs of our fathers. My neighbor..68 years old...wealthy has it all in the markets. After this little correction so far, he is miserable. I told him...SELL IT ALL NOW...and he just keeps saying.."AHHH we have good companies, they are not going anywhere..." This is the same mentality I was taught in High School years ago...Invest your money in stocks...reap an average of an 8% return...retire like a king. You would never sell. Where did that 8% figure come from? Anyway...it should be interesting watch his paper wealth vaporize ovr the next year or less with all of the rest...
That 8% came from a time when the interest rates were 12+...see the problem?
It is a generational thing, i think. They think always growing, we think tends toward zero (or that what we value isn't correct).
You hear "Time is money" everywhere, but i can promise one thing money does not equal time. I value time more than anything else, personal family time. Nothing is more precious than time, and it is always moving away from us.
I have someone very dear to me that has a very good amount in the markets and won't take it out because they don't want to pay capital gains!!!!!!!! They already lost what they would have paid out in taxes in the last few months... it is sad.
Why even use 'real' market terms such as 'bear' and 'bull' to describe markets since 2009 since it is really either the bubble bursting or the bubble being manipulated higher? To use bull or bear to describe this 'market' is an exercise in cognitive dissonance.
Now for the bad news.
Bear Naked Shorts...
"One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute."
William Feather
There's a scary bear under the porch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1EDMEL_b0o
That bear brings back memories of people I've found under my porch on Sunday mornings.
I do hope that is not supposed to be funny...
Why didn't somebody warn me about this?! Hussman, Stockman and all the rest who actually understand the real economy, have been ignored for years. Now that the shit is starting to hit the fan, they'll be burned at the stake for being right.....
It ties into a comment i made yesterday about farcebook and the who i-crap mentality. Free apps and all that are more than marketing and data mines, they are conditioned to form opinions on what is formed before they see it.
Why do people buy a couch, love seat, and a chair? Why not 5 chairs? Why not three love seats? Conditioning. People do not have free thoughts anymore, everything is conditioning. Ring bell, salivate... phone chirps...salivate. It is a world of fake friends, fake emotions, fake relationships, etc. When reality hits people like this in the face they are angry at themselves but must blame others. The addiction is worse than heroin or meth, literally. Why do so many get wrapped up in football and spend precious time on meaningless things...and get angry or worse, depressed when their team loses the game? An economy cannot thrive when it isn't based on reality, worse, civilized society cannot survive it. Look at pictures of people and their clothing each decade from 1900-today... it shows constant degradation. No, i don't want to wear 8 layers of clothing in the summer, but at least we now have A/C so we can wear a sport coat or some such.
Futures pointing the way to the equity cliff dive:
http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart
I enjoy Dr. Hussman's commentary. It's a must-read every Monday morning. Yet, his 10-year annualized return is -2.93%. Reminds me of Ned Davis' book... Being Right or Making Money.
I also read his commentary every week even though I can barely follow most of it. He acknowledges he erred after 2009, i.e., that he wasn't 'right', which has dragged down his 10-year return.
Sundials are never accurate on cloudy days, nor at night or when covered with snow. Hussman is back in the sunlight. His work on valuation and historical standard deviations show equity overvaluation of biblical disaster likelihood. Doubting his work was yesterday's news, wretched annual returns, etc. Looking forward, he will be celebrated as a profitable prophet or sweet cash lesser god.
Analogous to gold – let's see how that return stands after the implosion.
I believe that you are making the same point that Dr. John Husmman has been patiently expounding throughout 2015 - backed up with excellent analysis.
Yes, it is extraordinary that somehow a vast number of Americans have brainwashed themselves into believing that their 401K's can never go down. Heaven forbid that the "little retirement dream" of the Baby Boomers would suddenly collapse, and they would lose their share of Motherhood and Apple Pie.
The Wall Street Bankers said in 2008 that if the country takes major losses (i.e. if the banking system collapes), THEN those losses will be transferred directly into America's retirement accounts. You are witnessing the events that will make that come true.
Lets see:
-Baby boomer group is larger than current trends...that is downward pressure on houses, auto industry, well everything
-Corps have been cutting everywhere to chase a stock price that is now under constant pressure from above boomer issue
-Just in time inv., cell management theories, 6sig, etc. have pushed companies lean...but weak, not mean. they can't adapt to pressure from start ups overseas without sending their own plants there.
-Nobody is buying anymore. I for one will probably never buy a new car again in my lifetime. I plan to stay in my current home as well.
Those behind us can't find work, have massive student debt, and live in the basement of their parents home...no growth there either
EM's are in the same boat with debts and instability just as bad or worse.
This, for lack of a better term, is Kunstlers TRUE "Long Emergency".
well..."just the facts, ma'am" on 9/14 4:03 pm somebody bought 20K UVXY at $61 = $1.22 mil; subsequent drop to $40's....
then last night 4:27 pm 30K at $62 = $1.86 mil
surely some chump(s) buying too high with Aunt Elma's money, right?
I suspect that nominally the markets will probably rise in the next 10 years. In real terms they will be at best flat. This is the best possible outcome, IMO.
The majority of people I know are completely ignorant of matters related to their finances. You would think that with a serious nest egg on the line, not to mention their future standard of living at stake, they would educate themselves at least minimally. Not to be. The strategy is to hang on, turn a blind eye hoping it will all pan out. They are content getting slapped around, herded and sheared. They are getting exactly what their stupidity deserves. We're talking 99% of adults here. I've had people actually say to me, "If my 401 K tanks and I lose it all the gov will take care of me". Absolutely pathetic. Politics is the same. "Trump will fix it". America, you get what you deserve, unfortunately the minority of us with 1/2 a brain get what you deserve too. I personally can't wait for the giant flushing sound that carries the turds away.
Well said. Especially these words ... "You would think that with a serious nest egg on the line, not to mention their future standard of living at stake, they would educate themselves at least minimally. Not to be. The strategy is to hang on, turn a blind eye hoping it will all pan out. They are content getting slapped around, herded and sheared. They are getting exactly what their stupidity deserves".
I am not sure why Americans became such Big Babies when it comes to managing their own affairs. I agree with you that a vast number of people have thrown their money into 401K's that are managed by traders that they do not know or understand. Many other public service employees have thrown their retirement into managed accounts, and the funding of these schemes cannot possibly work out ... over the long term. It is "beyond ridiculous" that people think that Donald Trump, or any other person, is going to fix this problem. Nobody is going to fix this problem. Americans will be eating peanut butter sandwiches for their reitrement scheme. Most of Social Security will have collapsed, Medicaid will be gone, and many folks will be living in trailers. That is the Great Collapse, it is headed towards America with certainty.
You fuckheads that so callously refer to the non-priviliged American citizens as doomed and stupid are real men, women and children. You are no better than the banksters you revile.
When other's stupidity drags me (and others here) down with it, it pisses us off. You should be upset too, unless...
CALPERS is required to get a 9% return for its members. How the fuck?.....
But the government will take care of it.
Problem is, the governmnet is ALREADY taking care of it.
Wow, this is going to hurt many-many people.
Squid
Yes ... It's been a long winter
When NIRP comes, I bet stocks and bonds rise. If you had a bunch of money (too much to take out as cash) in the bank and the bank starts charging you interest on deposits, you probably are going to think about parking the money in a safe bond and maybe put some in the stock market as well. Valuations are f***dup now and could get even worse.
LMFAO!!!!
"If you had a bunch of money (too much to take out as cash) in the bank and the bank starts charging you interest on deposits, you probably are going to starting pulling that paper OUT of banks and put it in PMs, property, and maybe the fucking mattress!!!" - Fixed it for you!
And if they choose to ban cash...i will spend it on myself going to those places i see in pictures that i have not yet visited.
"I wonder how many willfully ignorant investors can handle a 50% to 70% haircut in their 401k, especially if they are over 50 years old."
Considering that the median 401k balance is about $36k, and the average person has less than $500 in savings, the "willfully ignorant" are probably already at, or near, a zero balance anyway.
what will happen again, as happened in 2007/08, is that many will lose their jobs. Unemployment in most states is poor. they will tap their savings and 401k to try and make it until they secure a job, believing that the same quality of a replacment job will be there for them to obtain. It won't. Their age will be held against them. They will refuse lower paying jobs, if even offered, because it's beneath them and can't pay the bills that exist. Many will file bankruptcy. They will spend the next 7 or 8 years trying to recover to live a modest retirement if they can ever retire.
Bernie Siegel just used the "Recession" word for equities, predicting a 20% to 30% drop in the 4th quarter or the next quarter. He was immediately attacked by the "Squawk on the Street" boys, arguing that healthcare accounts for 15% of the market while commodities only account for 7% and other non-points, to prove that the water is fine, come on in! Professor Siegel looked resigned, sheepish, ashamed to be shown with such sell-outs.
link?
---> President Trump
---> President Sanders
Get ready for one or the other when the shit hits the fan.
Fuck president. People will be wanting a Fuhrer. That should be interesting.
That WILL be interesting. *fixed it*
-and it will suck.
After you with the presdent, toaster. Anyone who wants power should automatically be disqualified. He will corrupt and overwhelm.
Viffer were you outside my apartment taking pictures in march 2009? Didn't see you but great picture of me.
The populace will drool in front of the boob tube and continue to do nothing as their country deteriorates into nothing...
See!!! What an arrogant cocksucker!
Show us where this ISN'T actually true. Football stadiums are full, and those who can't get or afford tickets drink until they pass out watching it at home. Yet few American's will even open a book to learn something new or better themself. Reality sometimes sucks, get used to it.
Slow but finally realized, a large portion of the posters on this site are the very people complicit in this economic ruination of America.
ZH is loaded with hypocrisy from the posters due to the very nature of their vocations. Never see one serving in the soup kitchen. They are too damned selfish and greedy. Just read the posts and if you are not "one of them", you are sheep to be fleeced.
Just a lot of trolls really. Many of the real posters were banned or chased off awhile ago.
By the way, isn't using the term "ZH" for the site one of the trolls' affectations?
You are very wrong. Most of the posters on this site would like to see the financial system of the USA returned to a honest system with a real Free Market. Nobody ever said that the Free Market was a pleasant place. Markets go up and down, gains are real. And losses are real. That is a true Free Market. It is also not possible for the people operating the system to "fudge the system" so markets go up constantly.
Your personal assumptions are also incorrect. I have volunteered at soup kitchens, and I have done humanitarian work for more than 30 years.
"ZH is loaded with hypocrisy from the posters due to the very nature of their vocations. Never see one serving in the soup kitchen. They are too damned selfish and greedy."
Slowly I've finally come to realize there is a certain segment of socialist society that cannot be made content about where that donated soup comes from, due to someone having to actually have to WORK at a "vocation" (that's normally called a job) in order to have the soup to donate to a charity (secular or otherwise) while the socialist waxes on incoherently about how cost efficient it is to have THE STATE stick a gun in my face to collect the money, in order to PAY for an army of bureaucratic pencil pushers, to document the transfer of one can of soup (from me to the charity) which winds up costing EVERYONE $500.00 after government carrying charges.
Now who's greedy, you & bureaucrats or me?
Merely pointing out the 'fact' of these problems is a testament. No one can change another. If one has the courage to speak the 'truth' to power and/or ignorance, then one has done much more than merely volunteering to bolster one's ego or conform to some religious doctrine....
The primary trend, as appraised by the Dow theory, turned bearish on August 20th, as explainded here:
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/08/dow-theory-update-for-august-...
The odds favor more declining prices, and hence it seems likely that the August lows will be retested again. Furthermore, all big bear markets were preceded by a Dow Theory "bear" signal.
I am bullish now thank you guys.
There is an old saying, 'There is a fool born every minute'. Thank you guys...
I convinced most of my friends months ago to cash out and hunker down, except 3 of which one double downed, BTFD chump... told me its the best time to get back in! The others are greatly appreciative of thier positions.
The saddest part of this entire Federal Reserve created debacle is there is no place to hide.
Sure there is. Move to a nice island in the south pacific. Or somewhere cheap-to-live in south or central america.
For assets, hide in physical gold and silver that you hold, hide, secure.
Get away from the financialized world if you want to "hide" and survive.
has anybody noticed his John Hussman's LOUSY (!!!) track record?
1. http://www.hussmanfunds.com/pdf/hsdperf.pdf
2. http://www.hussmanfunds.com/pdf/hsgperf.pdf
I don't take comments of a man performing that lousy serious.