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Case-Shiller Home Prices Disappoint (Again), Tumble Most In 13 Months
For the 5th month in a row, Case-Shiller home prices missed expectations and dropped 0.2% MoM in July (the biggest drop since July 2014). Year-over-year, home prices have been stable around a 5% increase for 6 months which seems oddly linear and seasonally-smoothed, but broad price gains YoY also disappointed again, rising 4.7% (against 5.2% expectations). San Francisco and Denver continue to see the highest YoY gains (10.4% and 10.3% respectively) and Phoenix posted its 8th consecutive annual gain - the longest streak among the 20 major cities Case-Shiller track.
Slowing?
On a M/M basis the has now been three months of consecutive declines:
From the report:
“Prices of existing homes and housing overall are seeing strong growth and contributing to recent solid growth for the economy,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The S&P/Case Shiller National Home Price Index has risen at a 4% or higher annual rate since September 2012, well ahead of inflation. Most of the strength is focused on states west of the Mississippi. The three cities with the largest cumulative price increases since January 2000 are all in California: Los Angeles (138%), San Francisco (116%) and San Diego (115%). The two smallest gains since January 2000 are Detroit (3%) and Cleveland (10%). The Sunbelt cities – Miami, Tampa, Phoenix and Las Vegas – which were the poster children of the housing boom have yet to make new all-time highs.
“The economy grew at a 3.9% real annual rate in the second quarter of 2015 with housing making a major contribution. Residential investment grew at annual real rates of 9-10% in the last three quarters (2014:4th quarter, 2015:1st-2nd quarters), far faster than total GDP. Further, expenditures on furniture and household equipment, a sector that depends on home sales and housing construction, also surpassed total GDP growth rates. Other positive indicators of current and expected future housing activity include gains in sales of new and existing housing and the National Association of Home Builders sentiment index. An interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, now expected in December by many analysts, is not likely to derail the strong housing performance.”
Charts: Bloomberg
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Good. those prices need to deflate a bit more so that the working man/women can afford property of their own.
What's the problem? Fuck the bankers and financiers, their money comes without and real work anyway (thanks to ZIRP/NIRP).
fuck em.
So true. My Dad's former house is still up over 400% from 2002 yet his wages have only gone sideways, maybe up a little but not more then 20% over that same period of time.
The CBs made ahuge mistake propping up overpriced houses for this long. They should never had let the bubble in the first place but then after it formed, they should have promptly let it correct.
They did not and now we are in a mess. It's global, not only in the usa. Norway, Australia, Canada, HK, etc are in worse shape.
This guy was just telling Yahoo investors to go long on housing stock.
So he can go Short, perhaps?
Any asshat can build a house. All he has to do is get a loan from a bank.
Wake me when there is some real movement like a 20% change. We have been trained to believe that the 0.2% changes mean something. They do not. It is noise. HFTs DO NOT manage the market based on daily news flashes, even though the media creates the stories to make us believe it is so.
10.3% rise in Denver...figures...I sold my Condo in June....after 5 years on the market...lol....I picked the bottom....
Damn man, congratutions (on the sale, not picking the bottom). Seriously. Life is short. Move on and enjoy the adventure.
That's no tumble, just sideways crap.
Absolutely. Let's see prices cut in half, then let's talk.
My house in Seattle is up 100% since 1998.
My wages are up 20%.
My property tax is up 150%.
Everything is in balance/sarc
BTW I hate this commie fag invested shithole of a city.. Need to sell this damn house and gtfo. Then hope they get a 9.5 quake followed by Rainier blowing.
Being house rich but bank poor. Sure doesn't help the economy. It's a death spiral.
Seattle is a great place, as is Portland. It's amazing just how sour you righ wing fucks keep yourself.
I see you have embraced the progressive suck.
Grimaldus
My wages are about the same as 1998 (peaked in 2009 then laid off). My condo is up about 35% since I bought it in 2012. Property taxes rise about 10% per year.
I look at Denver and San Fran and I get the local effects. However, house prices cannot rise above the ability to pay for them. If incomes are down overall then home prices nationally can only go so far. Interest rates are pretty much bottom and stablized. I will suggest that Obamacare is a large invisible tax that has reduced income for many, as well. It will not show up in the charts but people now pay much more for no extra service or care.
Eventually, all forces must balance.
Doesn't sound like prices are going down, just the rate of appreciation is slowing. Not sure about this headline of tumbling prices?
Low housing prices is better. Why doesn't anyone understand this !!!!
100,000 @ 10% > 300,000 @ 4%
Cheerleading high crapshack prices is a religion. It has helped mask the fact that most people's standard of living is actually falling and the economy is just smoke and mirrors.
As long as they hand out low-doc houses and zero down or near zero down, and the taxpayer backs all the bad loans, this farce will continue.
Weath effect ATM is broken -- time to juice it up with some NIRP
So I finally figured out that a "special" real estate agent sells only bank owned or repod homes around here in commiefornia.
So I've been following he's listings and guess what, after he sells a house nobody moves in it!?!? WTF?
He's trying to unload bank owned homes at top $.
Unfortunately for him and the bank people ain't got the dough no more.
"nobody moves in"
Probably Chinese. They are hoping to get refugee status when they face the death penalty back home.
Fuck overpriced housing and Central bank planning. Let the entire market and eCONomy crash. Maybe then we'll talk about an actual recovery.
Housing prices need to come down at least 50% from current levels before there can even be the beginning of a real housing recovery. And I own a house with a mortgage, in fact, it is my biggest traditional asset. I'd lose all equity and be underwater on the mortgage...
But THAT'S what has to happen, period. I'd much rather take my lumps on the current situation and re-enter a more sane, fairly-valued market. This shit is getting us all nowhere.
Scooby's building a new doghouse right now. I've got 125 yds of concrete in the footers/stem walls/slab/tiebeam.
Just the cost of concrete is ridiculous, not to mention the rebar, compaction tests, etc.
Everything government mandated to keep me safe.
Well then I said: "I'm not going to take this anymore" to "The Man", and I ended up joining Tyler and youz guys here at The Bite Club.
So far so good. I think we really got them and things are very much better off.