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Consumer Confidence Spikes Near 8-Year High Amid Global Turmoil But "Hope" Fades

Tyler Durden's picture




 

For the second month in a row, US Consumer Confidence (according to The Conference Board) soared in September. Printing 103.00 (smashing expectations of 96.8) in September, this is just shy of January's high going back to August 2007. The biggest driver of this seemingly odd exuberance (amid global escalation in financial and physical wars) is the Present Situation (up from 115.8 to 121.1) while "hope" dropped from 91.6 to 91.0.

 

 

As The Conference Board explains...

“Consumer confidence increased moderately in September, following August’s sharp rebound,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ more positive assessment of current conditions fueled this month’s increase, and drove the Present Situation Index to an 8-year high (Sept. 2007, Index=121.2). Consumers’ expectations for the short-term outlook, however, remained relatively flat, although there was a modest improvement in income expectations. Thus, while consumers view current economic conditions more favorably, they do not foresee growth accelerating in the months ahead.”

 

 

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions was more positive in September. Those saying business conditions are “good” increased from 23.7 percent to 28.0 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” declined modestly from 17.8 percent to 16.7 percent. Consumers were somewhat mixed about the job market. Those stating jobs are “plentiful” increased from 22.1 percent to 25.1 percent, however those claiming jobs are “hard to get” also rose from 21.7 percent to 24.3 percent.

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:11 | 6606163 terry44
terry44's picture

I put it down to brainwashing by the MSM.

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:16 | 6606183 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Demand has collapsed. Not sure how they work that fact into the "Consumer Confidence" calculations?

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:23 | 6606207 fudge
fudge's picture

Not sure how they work that fact into the "Consumer Confidence" calculations?

It's easy to get the right result when Mark Dice does the survey. ;)

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:52 | 6606296 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Euthanize him. Next liar, please step up.

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 12:45 | 6606759 knukles
knukles's picture

Was thst seasonally adjusted?

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 13:50 | 6607093 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

How can this be?

 

Unless they only read all the headlines on Yahoo news which are so out of touch with reality.

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 16:20 | 6607845 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

As a Consumer I am highly confident. Confident that the Fed and its bankster owners have boxed themselves into a corner and sold our economic soul for a few sheckels.

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:35 | 6606255 dimwitted economist
dimwitted economist's picture

LOL! What a Bunch of Horse Shit.. are people REALLY That Fucking Stupid?

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 16:19 | 6607843 t0mmyBerg
t0mmyBerg's picture

Football season has started so everyone is happy again.  Whoop whoop whho....

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:17 | 6606164 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Consumers are sheep, confident that the shepherd will watch out for them, oblivious to the concept of mutton.

By the way, if you find yourself in Western Colorado, try the local lamb at 626 on Rood.  The chef has it figured out.

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:21 | 6606198 nscholten
nscholten's picture

At least it is cheap. And you get fresh radiation from Hawaii

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:53 | 6606300 JRobby
JRobby's picture

If you are in Western Colorado, figure out a way to stay there until this blows over. Say 25 years.

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:13 | 6606170 Ataxic Press
Ataxic Press's picture

It's not called a "con" for nothing.

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:15 | 6606176 Superdave532
Superdave532's picture

Makes exactly as much sense as Obama's approval rating 

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:18 | 6606187 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

So I wonder what consumer confidence is in Caterpiller country, Peoria, Illinois? 

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:38 | 6606249 Slowdrip
Slowdrip's picture

I live in Central Illinois, most of the year to be around the Grandchitlens. Grew up here, CAT had been generational 'automatic' careers (100% benefit coverage, pensions etc.), for local highschool grads for the last 60 years. The street here seems to b saying, it's just another typical company corrective move to make the future, even brighter.....  

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:18 | 6606190 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Was the survey taken at the local Mercedes and Porsche dealerships?

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:19 | 6606191 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

Who the hell are they interviewing to get these survey results?

Not just this one, ALL of them...

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:29 | 6606230 optimator
optimator's picture

Methinks the poll was a randonly selected poll - Taken in the Hamptons.

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:19 | 6606194 NubianSundance
NubianSundance's picture

When you have a large number of people working for the government at local and national level there's bound to be a disconnect between them and the real world outside.

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:21 | 6606199 Collapsed_Elast...
Collapsed_Elastic_Pants's picture

As a consumer, I'm highly confident that I will never take out another mortgage, or have a car loan, or buy a gadzillion inch flatscreen. It's called living within my means. And my means is pretty mean.

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:22 | 6606201 starman
starman's picture

Waste of an article  waste of research!

Lies,lies,lies!

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:22 | 6606202 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Someone's been drinking too much of the Popes left over water.

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:54 | 6606303 Bear
Bear's picture

Holy smokes

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:53 | 6606205 Bear
Bear's picture

I don't know anyone who is 'confident' in the future ... but lots of people must visit MYTHMAKING.GOV regularly ... 1984 is upon us.

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:23 | 6606206 Baronneke
Baronneke's picture

For the second month in a row, US Consumer Confidence (according to The Conference Board) soared in September.

 

Says it all:  Govt. numberrors !!

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:25 | 6606217 Mark Mywords
Mark Mywords's picture

They should change their name to the "Confidence" Board. More appropriate and accurate.

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:24 | 6606210 CHoward
CHoward's picture

Consumer confidence is UP

 

Hope is DOWN

 

Worthless report

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:24 | 6606211 Mark Mywords
Mark Mywords's picture

Well, I guess the BTFD-ing will continue until morale improves.

I just want a *market* rout, not the end of civilization...alright, you got me - yes, I want to see that in my lifetime.

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:30 | 6606236 youngman
youngman's picture

With all those unemployed oil patch workers....I cant believe this number...even the Planned Parenthood people have to be scared

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:40 | 6606269 Mark Mywords
Mark Mywords's picture

What did Planned Parenthood ever do to you? Did someone there tell you that you had contracted the clap or something? Or perhaps one of their workers gave you the clap?

So much butt hurt over so little. Actually, over nothing, because that entire PP blow-up was just a lying scheme. Those people should be in jail.

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:36 | 6606244 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

I can't even watch this shit anymore.  Hard data ingorned in favor of surveys.  

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:52 | 6606294 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

 

 

One of the last 'lagging indicators' before the wide-spread layoffs ensue.   It's already beginning around the periphery.   The 'Rod of Gawd' comes when you see FB, TWTR, GOOG, NFLX & AAPL all announcing 'shifts in workforce' or some other euphemism for pink slips...

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:56 | 6606316 KansasCrude
KansasCrude's picture

What a bunch of MANURE,   Took my Dad to his Korean War reunion over the weekend.  They are having them more frequently as they are losing members each year.  As I have done this now 7 out of the last 8 years.  I have become more familiar and thus able to talk finance and outlooks with them and their spouses.   The ones that have been successful are sacred to death about what is going on.  They are pulling money out of the markets and looking for a SAFE place to put their cash.  They feel helpless and vulnerable as CD rates have been crap for years.  Several have lost serious money in the Oil and Gas markets as well as some stocks.  The sinking feeling of desperation is apparent as they fret over their net worth declining and how they will be able to protect their ass(ets). They are even selling blue chips like P&G and Pepsico even though they like the divvies.

While some have small amounts of PM's they have not been engaged in the market due to is moribund performance.  I found stressing the  "no counter party risk" as a credible discussion point.  Having APMEX in OKC where several were from seemed to have some value.   The reoccuring question was where do I put my money to be safe.....  As far as all the black swans in the eCONomy they are somewhat aware but the word derivatives might as well be a foreign language as no one has a clue of the potential to bring down the system.  The thought that the USD could take a big hit due to its debt and loss of the Reserve Currency status is not well understood either.

Along with the stories (even though I have heard most of them) one of the best things about the get togethers is no EFFING SMART PHONES as an artificial limb that must be constantly managed. My lord it is so refreshing to not constantly see one of those god forsaken things for a day or two.  The other was the aversion to Debt.....if you can't afford it you do without... 

Back to this silly absurd report.....The MORONS running the show are underestimating that the citizens are on to their BS....that they continue to lie to the extremes is now creating more fear and anxiety as more and more people are wondering why the truth is not available.....

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 10:59 | 6606327 henry chucho
henry chucho's picture

Of course C.C. is up,when the only things you have to buy with your own money (weed,booze,gas) are all going down,and everything the goobermint buys for you (food,healthcare,housing assistance) are all going up..

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 11:38 | 6606347 Bear
Bear's picture

Present situation is at 121 ... got my new iPhone; can't get much better than that

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 11:24 | 6606412 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

No one except Obama suporters will believe this bullshit!

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 11:34 | 6606447 BeerMe
BeerMe's picture

Overall I'm not seeing it.  People don't have that much money to spread around.

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 12:16 | 6606629 venturen
venturen's picture

don't you get it...YOU DON'T COUNT. Are you a public union worker? Are you a crony of the Democrats? Are you a crook from Chicago? Do you work for a mega bank located in NY? Do you work in silicon valley at some liberal oriented software scam? Do you work for a billionaire? Well then you wouldn't see it

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 12:10 | 6606587 Gatos Locos
Gatos Locos's picture

Oh well, I got tired of all this shit and I moved to the tropics.

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 12:14 | 6606615 venturen
venturen's picture

must be smoking hopium

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 13:32 | 6606976 ajkreider
ajkreider's picture

This really isn't that hard.

Gas prices down.  Confidence up.

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 13:54 | 6607117 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture
... banks getting tougher on struggling energy companies

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2015/09/after-months-of-...

Tue, 09/29/2015 - 14:37 | 6607338 Arthur Schopenhauer
Arthur Schopenhauer's picture

From the Consumer Confidence Survey's own website...

"The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was September 17."

https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm

S&P 500 on Sept 17th

             Date        Open         High          Low        Close           Volume

Sep 17, 2015  1,995.33  2,020.86  1,986.73  1,990.20  704,674,713

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