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6 Out Of 6 Fed Surveys Say US Is In Recession
For the first time since 2009, all six major Fed regional activity surveys are in contraction territory. So, time to hike rates?
Charts: Bloomberg
This sums it all up nicely:
Chicago PMI, most important regional survey, puts ISM at 46.9%. Great time to begin a tightening cycle Janet. pic.twitter.com/lg3wgMkUOq
— Not Jim Cramer (@Not_Jim_Cramer) September 30, 2015
Recession? pic.twitter.com/NUjTP17sLv
— Not Jim Cramer (@Not_Jim_Cramer) September 30, 2015
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Nope! NIRP!
Would say at least a recession is a fair statement
Layoff List: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
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Those Layoff Lists really don’t make much sense. Those people aren’t exactly ‘laid off’. Their jobs are gone forever.
Those surveys are raycessists
Think they are going to have to add in surveys to make things look better.
Or maybe just insert "not" into the next press release.
It's all made up anyways. Fuck it.
We have been in a paper depression for 15 years. Why not go full retard?
pods
Obozo on UN: The US is the strongest.
Hey... No other country's government has been as strong for Bruce Jenner as the U.S. Obama be teller of truth here.
Strongest welfare and food stamp enrollment as well.
The regionals need lessons from the Eccles bldg. on how to write a "good" report.....
In the past week, three friends of mine have lost their jobs.
One through a merger, where the 15 year employee lost out.
One, a 59 year old, experienced HVAC tech loses his job because after 100 years in the business the company is folding.
The last one, a 62 woman, a mid level executive--another victim of a merger who was leg go the day after she told her bosses she had breast cancer.
Never in my life have I seen "good" employees get whacked like this.
That sucks. If you can be replaced by a machine or an immigrant your days are numbered.
Happening everywhere though.
The HVAC tech has the best shot. Big money there if you roll solo or can field a team of mexicans.
pods
Many people think of the homeless in Los Angeles as being confined merely to Skid Row. Skid Row is the designated area in Downtown Los Angeles populated by many homeless residents. However, there is now growing homeless populations in Venice, Studio City, Highland Park, and Santa Monica. The challenge of course is the reality that rents are outpacing any real income gains.
I'm gonna have to file this article in the Bullish category unless there are any objections.
That's for their patients that chew gum.
How can we be in a recession with unemployment at 5.1%? Unpossible.
Exactly.......and we're not in recession until CBS, FOX, NBC, et. al. SAY we are. Dammit!!! Pay Attention here!
None of us will live long enough to see the next officially declared recession.
Here in canada we have only a technical recession. So we're OK.
Sure
"Here in canada we have only a technical recession. So we're OK."
Is that like being "almost pregnant"? Just wondering. :)
technical pregnancy, you can still do that coke a bit more. It wont make a difference, probably. What do you think? Now where is that QE?
He's only mostly dead!!
We can't declare we were in a recession, until we are out of one, this much is std textbook politics, plus being an election cycle makes it even more so.
The "new" definition of recession:
"When there's not enough for the 0.1% to steal, recession shall no longer refer to the common man."
Maybe that's where the term "technical recession" comes from? The plebes are already decimated, and the .01% are making less profits on their stolen loots.
Good thing recessions don't affect the "markets"
The Fed does not get to say when rates go up, the market does. Look at gold get smacked... $1112.
"Pffft...Who cares about Fed Surveys...Nothing but propaganda?" - Janet Yellen
The "real economy" still factors in to the GDP assessment, but there's other stuff in there too, like .gov spending and "double plus good" revision strategies that could make an "actual" recession merely look like slow growth.
6 out of 6 fed surveys have Yellin's finger less than one inch from the print button.
Fantastic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhvXtS9-IxM I spotted Yellen at the airoport today.
I hear gas turbines winding up.
Black Hawks just don't have the comforting wappa wappa wappa that the Hueys had.
Amazon can same day deliver via drones
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Remember/Helicopter_drop
Don't hold you breath about a money drop from a helicopter.
You have a better chance of them dropping hellfire missiles than currency.
Remember, someone has to borrow that currency before it comes into existence.
Unless you think the FED would slit it's own throat by actually printing currency not balanced by debt.
As Mako (Landofthefree) said, the helicopters are not coming.
pods
They should sell bombs and have them drone dropped at the stated shipping address. That would be very confinient.
Arnold brother, you got that one right. Check out the first four minutes of this one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRd-yMT_5NE
I suspect you may have sat through a few of these startups back in the day...
If you need a FED survey to figure out the score it's already too late for you...
Hedge accordingly.
NORMALIZE INTEREST RATES.
This entire policy arc has been a disaster. No productive capital formation can take place under ZIRP/QE.
End it.
It can no longer be "ended" without literally blowing up the golbal economic system, which will occur naturally.
truest thing i have read on these pages..
"This entire policy arc has been a disaster"
Not just Fed Policy but look at every single Government Track: Diplomacy? / Military? / Labor? / DOJ? / Municipal? / Drug Pricing Policy?/ etc etc etc
OBAMA IS A DISASTER ON EVERY FRONT
all by design
100 out of 100 survey of Hedgers say we are still in a depression.
You just can't see the bread lines this time around.
The bread lines are seen in the graph of food stamp recipients. It's the 21st century equivalent of the soup kitchen.
How many people have ever seen that graph if they aren't on ZH?
How many people would even know what a graph is if they saw one?
Isn't a graph one of those long necked animals at the zoo?
http://goo.gl/hdDt55
that raycessists
Hey TS. 'Bill of Rights' called you a stoopid yesterday in the Trump thread. You never called him out. Why? Don't let him call you that!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZrgxHvNNUc
Damnit Doctor, I almost choked on that one, you SOB.
http://d35brb9zkkbdsd.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/foodstam...
We are obviously in a down trend and things are improving. You guys just can't see the big picture...
down trend and things are improving...
Can someone help me out here? How is the US Department of Agriculture, (an executive branch dept.), able to produce tradeable script? I mean, this is through a mechanism with JPM right? Is the Treasury Dept. (another of Dear Leader's Czar run fiefdom), just exchanging zirp stuff to Janet to pass to JPM to load the cyphers on the cards directly or are there other skimmming locations before they reach the payday loan shops?
I know WB7 has a couple flow charts but are there other "official" ones showing who benefits like this chart clearly displays.
just wondering.
OK sleigher, but you stopped at 2011. It kept going up until June, 2013, and has declined since to 45.5 million - still a fuck of a lot, but there is a decline, which dampens your point just a bit. I consider your chart not quite honest. Things are bad, you do not have to cherry pick your data to make them look worse than they are.
I call a bit of bullshit.
For those of you that want a tighter look:
http://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/pd/34SNAPmonthly.pdf
Note, costs ('benefits') per person are also declining.
The whole trip is still bullshit, of course, but let us be really clear on where we have been and where we are - there have been attempts to rein this monster in just a bit.
Well I was just making a joke. Things sorta levelled off really in the past few years and maybe a small dip but yeah, I get it. The joke sucked...
Recessionary data points and lack of bond market liquidity are transitory.
Hike rates NOW to kill off the patient.
Any bets we end up in the red today? Just a hunch.
Not on a quarter ending day when the 2/20 payday gets booked.
Tag that hunch for tomorrow.
I feel tremors in the force. Just wondering aloud how much more bullshit supposedly educated people can swallow.
Gartman is short, remember?
i expect a +10 handle rally for the S&P 500 later in the session, it will be shorts covering.
Bah, Doomers! FED's got my back. To the moon, Janet!
6 out of 6 - that's just clouding the entire situation with facts. Knock it off.
Depression is Coming
Coming? Where you been for the last 15 years? Just wake up Rip?
Until I see tents in streets/parks in major cities I'll keep calling this a recession. Collapse is Coming may be more accurate.
SNAP and homeless shelters is the new soup kitchens and tents in the streets. Any "growth" we've had since the collapse in 2000 is strictly debt based, and we haven't had any real wage growth since the 70s. Look at food stamp usage, real wages, and labor force participation rates and then tell me it's not a depression. Did they teach you anything at Wharton, or were you just there for the chicks?
Little of both...
Take the debt away, cleans the system of this extraordinary monetary policy and we will see depression...everything done in the past 15 years was to keep us in recession territory.
I agree wholeheartedly with Engali. This depression has been papered over with EBT and social programs, housing, medical, phones, daycare, etc.......
The facade looks good but the rot behind grows. When the dollar becomes "normalized" and the US is forced into some type of austerity, well, that's when the Free Shit Army will be mobilized. They will move themselves or be herded.
Things can get so much worse...tough to call it a depression yet from what I see on a daily basis. This is the New Normal!
Feel free to make your way down through Lowell Massachusetts if its tents you need to see...
Hey BoR, how come you called ToungeStun a bad name yesterday? Huh?
http://ktla.com/2015/06/23/l-a-city-council-approves-aggressive-crackdow...
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-homeless-funding-proposals-l...
Janet: The eCONomy is strong (snicker, snicker) so we are going to raise rates by .25pt, but due to "outside forces" we are going to start a new bond buying program which is nothing at all like QE1, 2, or 3. We call it our Bond Savings program, or BS1 for short.
The Fed will continue to lie about the economy and delay a rate hike as long as they can get away with it. The cheerleading corporate media still think the Fed is in control.
Meanwhile stealth QE is currently going on via plunge protection team buying stocks to try and prop up the market and stop mass selloffs. PPT is designed to protect the assets of the .1%
Audit the Fed !!!
Audit the fed? lol....the socialist jew media has already asked the public, and a majority of the public "are against politicizing the fed by auditing it"....That was how they socialist jew media phrased the poll question....
Does it warm anyone elses heart that this shit has team micomanage mouth breathing?
Where is that lone dissenter dentist when you need him....
And bad news is good news once again. All we need is a negative print on NFP on Friday and the markets will be at new all time highs.
What about that 3.7% GDP in Q2??
Master Yellen will move in the opposite direction of normalization. Just ask yourself "What would be the most evil thing to do in this situation?".
So yeah, NIRP
recession, watered down term for Depression, since 2010
"Depression's just another word for nothin' left to lose"
- Yellen Mcgee
but even lesser jobs worse
and the stock market goes up, cwazy!
shits going to crash hard in october
the greater depression
A measly 250 pt rally to save the quarter. Me thinks there is no conviction.
9 outa 10 dentists recommend Cresttm
Choosey Moms choose JIFtm
and 6 outta 6 Bankers will always choose CTRL-Ptm
The writers here are funny as they flip flop back and forth. before the meeting they were going on about how rates should be hiked and now saying it'd be silly. I realize there are multiple writers at ZH but jeez, pretty silly to see the typical media flip flopping.
It's clear that not only is reading hard for you to comprehend, but so is sarcasm. Don't worry, you'll catch on..., hopefully.
Depression fk ur Recessionist!
Wow - didn't see this coming.
FUCK YOU YELLEN!!!
4th QTR Print for 2015 GDP will be 57% ...
(cuz science)
(and we'll arrest you if you question it)
Not a recession, just another tough spot. We just need a bridge loan to get past it.
Put me down for 4 billion. I'm good for it. I promise.
Negative rates will make debt never smarter.
We've been in a second Great Depression for years now; anyone saying otherwise is detached from reality.
Remember what pushed things over the adge, in '08, besides the obvious crap on Wall St.?
The threat of a tropical storm or even hurricane hitting Galveston.
The latest about the tropical storm in the Atlantic:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-storm-joaquin-east-c...
Will this be the 'event'?
I want this storm to just sit over Northern NJ/PA/NYC/Upstate, NY, etc. Like Agnes in '72. Dump at least 10" of rain in 24 hours type of event.
Just pull the plug, you PTB. Just pull it.
Hmmm, Not a word about this development on goggle news searches.
Don't worry. They will let us know if there is anything we NEED to know. They have been instructing the Chinese in how this is done. Don't press the point. We wouldn't want to be reading stories of your unpatriotic terrorist activities.
need to steal more from savers to get out of recession....blankfein needs a new plane....or Buffet needs a new train...or something.
This is a slow boring news day! Let's have a ZH fight to liven up the boring. Come'on bitchez.
Pick two members then we all go up thread to provoke them to start a fight. Come'on it'll be fun.
I pick TongueStun vs Bill of Rights. GO!
Get term life insurance policies on your elderly relatives.
Yet another one from the "everything is just fucking great", file.
Woman admits storing mom's corpse while she cashed checkshttp://www.fox5ny.com/local-news/26542990-story
We're on a "trajectory".......to hell!
If we keep increasing the GDP numbers along the way everything will be alright!
Who gives a flying fig about what the Data says.
We just have to take the data add a 2 here subtract a 4 here multiply by the average weight of a chicken feather and divide by the square root of the average circumference of a dog turd then Speak the Magic Words. Massago Numbero Economo! and Walla the economy is now back into positive territory.
What! The Sun-Hereald in Melbourne just printed that gold prices are down after positive data out of the US reminded the market that a rise in US interest rates is likely this year.
What a great time to buy moar stocks.
QE4 with a rate hike
Any minute now this little pressure cooker's going to blow. You might want to step back a few.Shhh, don't say anything.
Edit:
Maybe they went to lunch. Just keep an eye on them around 1 / 1:30 will see sparks fly after they had their martini's.
Edit.
They are probably with the hookers and blow now so we missed them. I'll get them again tomorrow. That was fun. Give it a try gang!
We've been in a recession for almost a decade. The money printing, AKA; Quantitative easing (QE) has only masked this fact. I have a close friend who is a store manager at a well known UK supermarket chain and SHRINKFLATION has happened to roughly 80% of products in his guesstimation over the last 4 years. Inflation is hiding in house prices, food, energy(despite the temporary low price of oil) fine art, land, hard assets and the last bastion will be precious metals when the penny finally drops.
TBH the whole system is a fucking joke and needs tearing down. The West are led by the nose by a bunch of Israel first Zionists traitors, in conjunction with unreconstructed kleptocrats in government and in the banking system, with a political class so devoid of moral fortitude they have acquiesced to the demands of the banksters and big corporations, in return for a tiny sliver of the pie. Our politicians are nothing more than risible individual's masquerading as public figures and statesmen, pretending to serve the public good, when in reality they only serve themselves. I have nothing but contempt for the whole system.
Wow. That's better than the 4 out of 5 dentists surveyed.
Whttps://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?p=we+are+the+champions&ei=UTF-8&hspa... must never forget!
It's right on cue. Knowing the Fed backed itself into a corner, they just gave themselves an exit strategy and a reason they can't raise rates.
The mainstream press reports US GDP as still growing (just abut the only world economy that is), yet everyone else knows that the USA is in recession.