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Zandi Says "We're Pumping Out Lots Of Jobs" As ADP Manufacturing Jobs Plunge Most Since Jan 2010
September isn't even over yet, but ADP already knows how many jobs were added for the full month of September: precisely 200K, which just happens to be the consensus expectation for Friday's NFP number.
With job growth having hovered back at its lowest since January 2014 for much of the year (with a modest inventory-stacking bounce in May and June), September's small beat (200k vs 190k exp) did very little to change that trend. Once again the gains were dominated by the Services-providing sector (188k vs 12k goods-producing) and large companies dominated the gains. Year-over-year job growth was 2.21%, the slowest since April 2014 and while construction rose 35k in September, Manufacturing dropped 15k. As Zandi said "The job market is a machine, it's just pumping out a lot of jobs," so we assume that means an October Fed rate hike?
"Steady"...
But Manufacturing jobs collapsed at the fastest rate since Jan 2010...
Incidentally, we noted precisely this a few weeks ago parsing the BLS data, only there the drop was the biggest going back only to July 2013. If ADP is right, expect Manufacturing Jobs slaughter on Friday:
Payrolls for businesses with 49 or fewer employees increased by 37,000 jobs in September, less than half of the August gain. Employment among companies with 50-499 employees increased by 56,000 jobs, 18,000 fewer than the previous month. Employment gains at large companies – those with 500 or more employees – rose dramatically from August, adding 106,000 jobs in September. However, companies with 500-999 lost 3,000 jobs. Companies with over 1,000 employees added 109,000 jobs, accounting for over half the total jobs added for the month.
Some more pretty, if utterly meaningless, charts.
Change in nonfarm private employment:
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry
As ADP details,
"Businesses with more than 1,000 employees contributed over half of the job gains in September, despite weakness in energy and manufacturing,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, VP and head of the ADP Research Institute. “The largest companies appear to be starting to overcome the impacts of weak global demand and the high dollar, while the smallest companies may have pulled back as concerns about the resiliency of the U.S. economy grew and consumer confidence softened.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The U.S. job machine continues to produce jobs at a strong and consistent pace. Despite job losses in the energy and manufacturing industries, the economy is creating close to 200,000 jobs per month. At this pace full employment is fast approaching.”
Full ADP Breakdown
http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2015/September/NER/images/infographic..." width="598" />
So Rate Hikes are coming? What is The Fed worried about?
Charts: Bloomberg
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EOQ paint the tape grape ape trade is ON BITCHEZ
Manufacturing Slides
Molly geez......we still have some?
He is clearly talking about hookers cranking out the jobs.
"Zandi Says "We're Pumping Out Lots Of Jobs"
This is out of context. Zandi is refering to "pumping out" of job in the US and moving them overseas /sarc
"September isn't even over yet, but ADP already knows how many jobs were added for the full month of September: precisely 200K, which just happens to be the consensus expectation for Friday's NFP number."
It's this kind of quantitative precision that makes the USA #1.
Nice.
In the olden days we called it extrapolation. Now it's just a WAG so we can have another long weekend.
However putting criminals on the street should be good for the Public Sector.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-29/big-bank-pink-slip-pandemonium-...
Yesterday's New York Times had another story on the crimes of the H1B program companies, this time how at ToysRUs, long term workers in the accounting department were told to let Indian H1B workers mirror their work. Once these Indian workers have learned exactly what to do, the Indian worker copycats return to an office in India while the American workers get pinkslipped. Of course, this use of H1B workers is completely illegal but the hack Obama political appointees at Labor and ICE are too busy creating harems for themselves to notice.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/30/us/temporary-visas-meant-to-import-tal...
Thank you for showing us what is under the hood. This is a well-selected expose on your part.
I'm no longer excited about the number of jobs added as this doesn't really indicate the health of our economy. I'm more interested in Gross Domestic Income. That is the real canary in the mine shaft.
does "income" include food stamps, disability, AFDC, housing, etc?
What about QE and ZIRP and all other forms of corporate welfare, which cost much more than those items?
More positive news on the Kenyan recovery !
Time for a 400 point Dow day! Fraud, deception and propoganda the new normal in American finance.
Window dressing. It should then be accompanied by upgrades, followed by massive selling.
In this way, the stock market will be "prepared" by Goldman and the cronies ... which was apparently the missing element for a September rate hike.
The Fed knows that low interest rates do not help an economy. They only serve to misprice assets and misallocate capital to otherwise undeserving projects.... and people.
In a tweet this morning, Alex Modestou wrote that Amplify Education laid off 800 employees today.
http://observer.com/2015/09/breaking-amplify-education-laid-off-an-estim...
Should force BLS below 4%
September was a weaker month for our manufacturing in the US and Europe, but there was an increase in China and the rest of Asia. I am assuming this is in anticipation of the pagan Xmas rights snd the sacrifice of debt-fiat to Mammon.
What do we manufacture here? Aside from War machines?
We manufacture future sign flippers...every god damn day...get fucking everyone
....southound skittles from northboud unicorns.
The plan has been for the US to retain just enough manufacturing of pretty much everything, just in case the globalist wet-dream of a globally interdependent economy fails.
Those whose "great work" is the creation of a global version of "Plato's Republic" (including its class structures) need to eliminate independence most of all.
By understanding this, it is also understandable that it is far more honorable to be a slave than a slaver. At least in being a slave we have independence of spirit.
The elitists have no honor, no morals, no ethics that would be recognized as human or worthy of God the creator... and it is this understanding that stands most in their way. And, it is for that reason that they are constantly endeavoring to corrupt us (the human domain) and break us down.
The world couldn't be any more different from Plato's Republic.
God the creator. Any relation to Cedric the Entertainer? Is he available for meet and greets?
Just joshing - I know he's not real.
Some mighty fine hearing protection.
http://www.surefire.com/tactical-equipment/hearing-protection.html
The U.S.S.A part time job machine is pumping out a lot of burger flippers, waitresses, and bartenders.
There fixed that for ya Zandi
this is relevant to both this thread & the college/"game of loans" one but in chatting w/our waitress at a beer night a few weeks ago found out she'd just graduated w/her masters in chemistry from gerogia tech. if an attractive young woman w/a stem masters from an upper-tier school can't find a "real" job in the age of "omg! women in stem! oh, the humanity!" things are bad...
Not just burger flippers. I have an extended family member, makes 6 figures , has 3 years to retirement. They call her on her vacation , tell her she needs to come the office the next day. Why? They want her security badge,she is being replaced by 3 recent grads at 25k each. They then had the balls to ask if she would train them at half salary for 6 months
Just went voluntary part-time at beginning of September - 30 hours per week - after working full time for a decade +. I'm still relatively young (33), have no wife/kids, and can afford the pay cut. I'm learning how to be poor, creating more free-time for my own intellectual pursuits, and starving the beast in the process. Beautiful.
Corporate America is in for a major catastrophe as many large employers become more like corporate adult day-care centers, with an aging and sick (both physically and mentally) population that is forced to continue to try to work. The youth will begin to see that they are essentially mules, expected to drag the older generation and all of their criminal instutions and programs along. Two problems: 1. They can't. 2. They won't.
I work in manufacturing.
Coming up through the ranks, skilled trades then into engineering, I came across any number of people who were merely trying to sustain their over-extended lifestyles, until they got their SS bennies. Many are/were (were=deceased), scumbags. They didn't belong in a machine shop supervising people who were smarter, and better educated, then themselves. Yet much of American manufacturing has been run like that, for at least 15 if not 20 years previous, to now.
The chances of a young person being 'blown in' to a higher-up by some older hack over stupid shit, are great, unfortunately. Some of these assholes, and their younger hack lackeys, are responsible for manufacturing's demise in this country, at least the part of it which was/is lost because the newer blood saw the writing on the wall, and didn't want to work around miserable assholes.For the past 15-20 years, manufacturing has been all about people digging in their heels, and resisting change.
If I had a dime for every time I've heard the phrase 'we can't find people', in the last 15 years...
They, TPTB, the shop owners, the managers who ran and continue to run the larger firms, fucking ruined it. ZIRP enabled the owners to build whenever and wherever they wanted to, and the problem has been compounded by globalization. Many of the best and brightest went into finance in the last 25 years, and I don't blame them.
I encourage young people today to do as you have done, live a simple lifestyle. Do it until this shit blows over, which will be in the next 5-10 years.
95 million not in work force- we will have a halocaust museum for them, or will they be the forgotten people?
msm never sees them never talks of them they are not there.
There are already statues of the Unknown Soldier. And in Canada they even killed another unknown soldier in front of it.
all msm talking heads can do is read a teleprompter. they're paid for looks not brains.
“The U.S. job machine continues to produce jobs at a strong and consistent pace. Despite job losses in the energy and manufacturing industries, the economy is creating close to 200,000 jobs per month, with minimum wage at best but mostly less as they survive on tips. At this pace full employment with really, really, really low wages is fast approaching. Also I like to suck big fat banker dick.”
*Fixed for truth
To which country is this machine pumping jobs?
I work for one of the Auto Insurance Mafia families (mine might be the only one with a female face). We've been adding employees like crazy lately but most of the positions are not capable of supporting a family, although many of these employees are supporting a family - I don't know how they do it. Oh wait, yes I do - up to their eyeballs in debt and marriages/partnerships defined by the need to support each other financially. We've also been adding quite a few high paying tech related jobs, but most of them are H-1B employees from India (much annual information about employer's h-1b filings is available free online).
The push to get everybody and their brother in college helped hide a weak job market, and now you've got hordes of "college-educated" (puke in my mouth and make me swallow it, please) people that spent nearly an entire Obama presidency racking up student loan debt trying to find jobs.
The constant trail of bright eyed sexy young people showing up to interview for a job they could have applied for and started when they were 18 years old makes me sad...
Can some one please throat punch that dumb piece of shit Zandi?
Go ahead....I doubt anyone would really care.
I was once an tech service engineer for a printed circuilt board company... back in 2000, the US had 150k employees engaged in the manufacture of bare circuit boards.. today only about 30k are engaged.
We could compete with Taiwan and Japan, but when CHina came on board with $50 a month labor that were willing to live in dormatories, work 6 12 hour days per week, and sell the same boards for 15 cents on the dollar, this industry was gutted.
Gutted folks.
Thank Nixon.
WE WILL ALL HAVE A JOB SOON!
GREAT NEWS!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYhtqys3t_4
Service sector jobs up big. Here where i live a big hotel is opening and their hiring 140. Lots of part time workers sweeping floors, making beds, working in the kitchen washing dishes. Life is good.
Zandi's comments on CNBS reminded me of this quote:
"It's better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than open it and remove all doubt."
It's disappointing the brains that love the 200k increase monthly love it as an addition to the base of 142 million working(today) or 134 million working (October 2012).
Job growth has slowed from 2.34% for the last twelve months ending February 2015 to 2.09% for the last twelve months ending August 2015.
That sharp slowdown is set to continue, even with their 200k estimate for September. But they are not going to tell you that.
And I didn't even mention the impact of full time to part time jobs.
Mark Zandi is the biggest clown in our solar system (now that they found water in Mars, assuming there areother maritan clowns like Zandi) Every prediction that clown made on job numbers were wrong for the last 3 years.
Question for HR types. Say you have one of these great, new ,part-time, low pay, no benefits jobs.. Who is the least disgruntled and best hire. The Millennial, who was told if he got a degree there would be a job waiting that would set him on the course to a great life, or, the Boomer, who was told if you slog it out for 40 years you can retire comfortably and enjoy the rest of your life on your own terms?
I'm not HR, in fact I hate most HR hacks, but I'd venture to guess the boomer, who wants to tie themselves over to SS, or perhaps is on SS but has no savings, will gladly take the job.
We're fucked.
The most disgruntled is the HR person, who has to lie about what a great opportunity this job is and has to deal with these angry and pissed off applicants. Even worse, they cannot figure out why, despite the shitty job market, the cnadidates don't seem to give a shit as to whether they get the job or not.
Well hears more good news I used to get 6 job listings in my email a day, jack of trades I know. Now squat nada. Its proof enough for u all! Now I have to search for them. Yes I work full time, but like a 2nd job on side or 3rd.
September 29 , 2015
Hudson's Bay Co - 265 Mostly in HQ / Corporate
Amplify Education - 800
Halliburton - Management Layoffs Coming?
PL Electric Utilities - 57 Possible Layoffs
Chesapeake Energy Corporation - 750 ?
Zandi takes into account this small sample of layoffs and firings. Liars.
Bank of America - Layoffs, No # yet
History Colorado - 22% of Staff
September 28 , 2015
Alexander County IL - Layoffs Possible
A&P Montvale HQ - 319 Layoff Notices
Whole Foods - 1,500
Central Virginia Training Center - Some Layoffs
Carter Fuel Systems in Logansport - 100
Zandi - bag boy for the big boys downtown