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Even Evercore ISI Is Now Using The "R" Word, And What Happens Next

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Evercore ISI, the company which unlike the ISM, conducts business surveys that are not only credible, but actionable, just looked at the latest data, and had the following observation: "Evercore ISI trucking survey is down a big -1.3 to 51.0 versus its peak last year of 65.4. The tech survey slipped below 50.0. If they don't stop declining soon, we will become more worried about recession risk."

More details:

 

So what happens if the economy does, as not only Evercore but as 6 out of 6 regional Fed surveys suggest, roll over into recession?

If the economy goes into recession, S&P declines average -31%. If the economy remains in expansion, S&P corrections average -15%

Finally, it's not just the fundamentals that are concerning - the technicals are perhaps an even greater fear:

 

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Wed, 09/30/2015 - 16:02 | 6612668 Mark Mywords
Mark Mywords's picture

Technical analysis. How 2008.

Wed, 09/30/2015 - 16:04 | 6612681 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Chicken Little Sky falling charts.

Only, the charts are actually falling.

It must be real.  

Wed, 09/30/2015 - 16:07 | 6612698 Jethro
Jethro's picture

So, when is Mr. Yellen announcing QE4?

Wed, 09/30/2015 - 16:27 | 6612804 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Just in time for Christmas bonus season on W street! Merry MOAR.

High end car/yacht dealers gotta eat too!

Wed, 09/30/2015 - 16:23 | 6612778 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Survey = Perception.

Just because someone is walking doesn't mean they are healthy.

Wed, 09/30/2015 - 16:23 | 6612781 vq1
vq1's picture

"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."

-Warren Buffett

 



Wed, 09/30/2015 - 16:29 | 6612816 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

it sounds like evercore agrees with janjuah. the fed starts buying at ~ 1500.

Wed, 09/30/2015 - 17:12 | 6613030 Mark Mywords
Mark Mywords's picture

Starts?

Wed, 09/30/2015 - 19:22 | 6613561 khakuda
khakuda's picture

Good thing Ed Hyman sold ISI to Evercore at the top.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 06:24 | 6614841 redd_green
redd_green's picture

Does this mean my food bill will start dropping too? 

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