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Even Evercore ISI Is Now Using The "R" Word, And What Happens Next
Evercore ISI, the company which unlike the ISM, conducts business surveys that are not only credible, but actionable, just looked at the latest data, and had the following observation: "Evercore ISI trucking survey is down a big -1.3 to 51.0 versus its peak last year of 65.4. The tech survey slipped below 50.0. If they don't stop declining soon, we will become more worried about recession risk."
More details:
So what happens if the economy does, as not only Evercore but as 6 out of 6 regional Fed surveys suggest, roll over into recession?
If the economy goes into recession, S&P declines average -31%. If the economy remains in expansion, S&P corrections average -15%
Finally, it's not just the fundamentals that are concerning - the technicals are perhaps an even greater fear:
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Technical analysis. How 2008.
Chicken Little Sky falling charts.
Only, the charts are actually falling.
It must be real.
So, when is Mr. Yellen announcing QE4?
Just in time for Christmas bonus season on W street! Merry MOAR.
High end car/yacht dealers gotta eat too!
Survey = Perception.
Just because someone is walking doesn't mean they are healthy.
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
-Warren Buffett
it sounds like evercore agrees with janjuah. the fed starts buying at ~ 1500.
Starts?
Good thing Ed Hyman sold ISI to Evercore at the top.
Does this mean my food bill will start dropping too?