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The Model X Debut
Early in 2013, I did a laudatory review of the Tesla Model S (at which time, if I had any sense, I would have loaded up on the then-$40 stock), and I continue to believe it is the best car I've ever had. Around the same time, I put $5,000 down to reserve my spot for the Tesla X SUV. This product has been delayed for a long, long time, but Elon Musk promised it would start shipping in "Q3 2015". I cynically predicted he'd probably roll out one vehicle on September 30th, and I wasn't too far off: he rolled it out the day before. That is, last night.
I got an invitation to the event, which was held at the Tesla Factory. It's been many, many years since I've been to anything resembling a product intro, so I decided to go. I drove over the Dumbarton Bridge to Fremont, and I joined a fairly large crowd of other people who had also received invitations.
So we waited..........and waited...........and it got dark......
Then they finally let us in and, happily, there were unlimited free cocktails. I could get used to this!
And then, once again, we waited.........and waited..........and it was obvious that, as with the Model X, things were "delayed."
The event was supposed to start at 7;30, and it was getting close to 9. I was alone, but listening to other conversations, it was apparent to me people were running out of things to say to one another.
At long last, they let us into the room where the big event would be. At about 9 p.m., the loudspeaker announced "Mr. Elon Musk", and he strolled on stage. I've got to tell you, he's not the most fluid speaker on the planet, which surprised me. It seems I'm not the only one with this opinion.
He walked the audience through the car's safety features, its rapid acceleration, its automatically-opening doors, and the air control. He proudly stated that the air filtration was so good, measurement equipment literally could not detect any pollen, bacteria, or viruses inside the vehicle. It is literally as clean as a hospital operating room, and in "Bio Weapon Defense System" mode (yes, I'm serious), you could literally just hop in your car and survive a terrorist attack.
The lengthy delay for the speech was somewhat irksome (although the free drinks helped pass the time), but some luminaries were pretty peeved.
Here's a (not great quality) video I made for Musk demonstrating the car's gimmicky gull-wings when parked between two other vehicles.
There's no doubt that the Model X will be selling swiftly for a while, since there are already tens of thousands of people committed to doing so. The one and only topic Musk didn't mention in his presentation was price (and no one bothered asking, since I guess this was a solidly upper-middle-class-or-above crowd) but there's a finite number of people willing to spend six figures on a vehicle which, while spiffy, isn't exactly gorgeous aesthetically, and it isn't particularly large, either (I think the "SUV" moniker is stretching it a bit; it's more like a somewhat bloated Model S).
I think Tesla's product delays and high product prices are going to catch up with it, so I put on a small short position today. I'm looking forward to getting my X when it finally ships in a few months, but I don't think this is the game-changer that the Model S was in 2012.
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Another toy for the Silicon Valley crowd to fill their artificial lives. Let’s wait what the build quality is of these because I’ve heard there is some work to do on that part.
Interesting to see how this will sell because most of the audience will already have a Model S. Tesla is going to get competition on this market from German manufactures. The only thing keeping Tesla up is the US gov (and other govs) supporting them by subsidizing the cars and attempting to destroy foreign competition (Volkswagen for example).
I stoped reading after you said that you got the s model, then you reserved x model.
You guys are all missing something huge.
THERE WAS A BLACK GUY AT THE EVENT!!!
… the booze WAS free.
I think Tesla's entire business model is flawed. It's backwards. For any startup aren't the crucial questions: 1) how big is the market? and what's the multiple? (that is, what percentage of the market will Tesla capture?). The high-priced, low-volume luxury vehicle market has many buyers willing to pay up for technology subject to fads or fashion.
If their intent had been to develop economic electric vehicle technology, especially batteries, they should have walked in the footsteps of Japanese companies like Honda. By manufacturing motorcycles Honda learned how to become a high-volume, high-quality, low-cost original equipment manufacturer. Tesla should have focused on the highest volume market possible, such as motorcycles or economy cars. Those volumes dwarf the luxury automobile market. By doing so, they would have traversed the "learning curve" far faster than their current pace. Also, to compete with established luxury automobile manufacturers they have to commit limited resources to features that have nothing to do with electric vehicle technology.
I could be wrong, but I cannot think of a single example of a luxury automobile manufacturer that successfully became a profitable manufacturer of high-volume economy vehicles. I can think of some dismal failures (e.g., General Motors' attempts to compete with the Japanese).
Some may point to Tesla's enormous market capitalization as some sort of proof of their success. But, I think it is far more indicative of the massive distortions induced in the markets by the Fed's serial bubble generation schemes. Tesla's manufacturing volume versus market capitalization in comparison to other vehicle manufacturers is an unreal outlier. In fact, I think Tesla owes its very existence to the Fed's serial bubble making policies.
The coming recession and collapse of the massive worldwide bubbles in the commercial and residential real estate markets, corporate and sovereign bond markets, world stock markets, massive industrial and commodity overcapacity and malinvestment, etc., blown by the serial bubble makers in the Eccles building. In Washington, D. C., will sorely test Tesla.
Fofoa is fond of saying 'hyperinflation will fix that'.
Right now a lot of things exist only because of the Fed's reaction to the dying dollar system. After the funeral there will be a good deal of reality checking done. A cow will again be wothe a few hundred chickens and companies that make shit will actually go broke.
In our current world GM is still a going concern. It won't exist when it has to show a GAAP profit year after year.
Reality check: a 50 lb bag of corn or wheat costs aout $13 at retail. It can feed a man for a month.
If a Tesla X costs over 100K, it will buy about 10,000 bags of grain. Feed a man for close to a thousand years.
Think I'll take the grain.
… no hot chicks for YOU !
You are a douchebag.
We appreciate your input.
"Early in 2013, I did a laudatory review of the Tesla Model S (at which time, if I had any sense, I would have loaded up on the then-$40 stock), and I continue to believe it is the best car I've ever had. Around the same time, I put $5,000 down to reserve my spot for the Tesla X SUV."
"I got an invitation to the event, which was held at the Tesla Factory".
"Then they finally let us in and, happily, there were unlimited FREE cocktails. I could get used to this!"
"I guess this was a solidly upper-middle-class-or-above crowd"."I think Tesla's product delays and high product prices are going to catch up with it, so I put on a small short position today. I'm looking forward to getting my X when it finally ships in a few months, but I don't think this is the game-changer that the Model S was in 2012. "
HOW MUCH did you receive in subsidies all in for your purchase of your Tesla X ?
-Just so WE ALL know: how much input have WE have input...
It's 5k per car, either a dealer write-down or write off on taxes,I don't remember which off hand though, but I sure remember the 5k per car number.
Interesting think I also learned today, Calii still has a sort of "cash for clunkers' on the books and gives 1500 per car if you junk your car after it fails a smog test.
Musk has taken at least $4.9B (that's B for billion) from taxpayers so far for Tesla, SolarCity and Space X. Tesla will not be profitable until at least 2020 assuming the Model 3 can be delivered in 2017 and priced around $35K, both of which now look highly unlikely. He has a track record of breaking promises to people from whom he borrows money. IMO, Tesla is simply another wealth transfer conduit.
Thanks. Always glad to point things out.
I second your emotion, Arb. Anybody who thinks Tesla was a buy at $40 because even more wads of stolen QE loot flowed into its coffers is a douchebag.
Another expensive toy for rich jerks with self esteem issues. Way to be relevant, Musk!
What next, a trip to Mars?
This company loses thousands of dollars on every product that can only be purchased by the 1% ers. Why do so many dweebs living in their parents' basement like this guy?
And why does my sorry ass paycheck have to subsidize this mofo (muskman) and all who buy his gov motors?
Musk is a crony chosenite capitalist who gets lots of money for DC and Silly-CON Valley.
Can I recharge it with bitcoins?
nope. and dont try to charge your iphone from the cig lighter. your phone battery will be flat in 5 seconds.
"hmmm my phone went dead but at least my range increased by 47m"
Musk actually went on and on about something I think he called "holster-free phone holder" or something, although I didn't know WTF he was talking about.
"Musk actually went on and on about something I think he called "holster-free phone holder" or something, although I didn't know WTF he was talking about. "
Were you even sober by the time Musk came 'round to gave you the biz?
Did you drive yourself home in your Tesla X after those free drinks? -How many do you think?
You do understand that if You didn't pay for those 'free' drinks that they were paid for with other taxpayer's money in the form of rebated corporate tax deductions to the un-profitable company don't you?
Musk is a crony fascist bidness man feeding at Wash DC and SillyCON Valley trough of money.
The guy is also a fat shit. At least Larry Ellison and Jobs were fit and slim in black. Jobs also could put on a show. Making people wait until 9 pm. Endless product launch delays. Clown show.
California libtards pushing the Global Warming Agenda. Too clueless to realize they are being dusted 24x7 by the Fukishima mist of MOX and other radioactive agents. Their vineyards, hopefully Pelosi's but not Coppola's, are getting a nice daily dose of CS-137 (Cesium). Enjoy that contaminated sushi while you worry about all the wrong things.
Fuki will just keep leaking while you are delusional about AGW. Japan has no fix, no clue what to do.
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/06/west-coast-of-north-america-to-be...
I think you're on to something with the short;)