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Stocks, Commodities Surge On 'QE4 Hope' After Chicago PMI Collapse
"Bad news is good news" again... for the global money-printing reflation trade...
Some context for this surge...
But it appears stocks are losing faith..
Charts: Bloomberg
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End of quarter. Go back to sleep.
They will be crying 96 tears if you believe this.
What? You don't you believe? Look at Glencore, saved by magic and on their way to Nirvana......
How is your virtual portfolio doing Ron Insana?
Seeing all these charts and how serious everything looks, I thought back to a show on the FOX Business Network (FBN), a 5:00P weekday show called "Happy Hour," presented by Cody Willard, Rebecca Diamond and Eric Bolling. The show was cancelled in May 2010, replaced by the much cheaper to produce "The Willis Report." "Happy Hour" aired from the Bull & Bear Bar in the Waldorf Astoria. On the show you would have Rebecca talking to bar patrons, ex-hedge fund manager Cody discussing the market conditions and sometimes the Illuminati and Eric just acting surly. It is no surprise that only Eric Bolling remains on FBN, on a really demented show call "The Five," which is an unwatchable roundtable show featuring the most boring talking heads outside of drug addled Charlie Rose.
As for the stock market today, it reminds me of a person who has lost his balance and, flailing his arms, tries to regain his footing. Only instead of seconds before the smackdown to the sidewalk, this stock market descent is in slow motion, heading toward a 14,000 Dow sidewalk.
Come on! It is great to watch Bolling go after Jerry Rivers periodically.
My TZA stopped out this morning, not unexpected - a bit of a rally was overdue, then I watched a recovery to yesterday's close. It's OK, I took my months play money and ran, but still...I wouldn't be totally surprised if the Russell turned red by the close. Wacky fucking place, but I like to have a little skin in the game to make my retirement less boring.
When someone's giving out free money make sure you get some.
As lucrative and moral as selling snuff films. Profiting from destruction. At least undertakers have the respect to not gloat and be happy at our loss.
This is why only fools remain in the casino and anyone speaking the truth is atracked.
IKR. Those remaining fools fail to realize that if the economy wasn't a heaping pile of ash, then QE would not be required.
And the effect of this highly specious QE4 would be what? Not sure, but I bet it has something to do with the velocity of money which is still in the shitter and headed lower still.
And since nobody's going to look it up for themselves, here is a chart of the velocity of money:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V
FYI- it's NEVER been lower than it is right now. Not since they started collecting data on it (shortly after WWII). And it'll go lower stilll.
So, does a buzzer go off when we hit zero??
At 1.0 there is no multiplier effect for that money in the real world economy. And remember, most of QE stays in the canyons of Wall St to begin with, so you're already in a realm where the multiplier is a FRACTION (less than 1). So you do a trillion dollars of QE and you get only a few billion of improvement in the real economy. Pretty cool, huh?
I'll look into the buzzer thing. Seems like there should be one, doesn't it?
Assuming they don't actually use helicopters, how will the paper-drop actually take place?
I am going to assume the Fed will print and buy the worthless SLAB's and distressed oil field debt?
Don't know, but I suspect they'll find a way. My bet is a GIANT "go for broke" government works program with 100% of it's cost paid for by printed Fed money. They aren't going to cut you a check personally, in case you were wondering.
Why not a personal check, Dubya did it? $20K rather than $2K is my suggestion.
The Fed needs to start a public works/infrastructure spending program using their so-called "profits" that they otherwise would have returned to the Treasury. With the current composition of the Congress, it would be difficult to get a fiscal stimulus program run by the government approved. So, the Fed will have to step up to the plate and do it themselves. This will get some money to Main Street and into the economy instead of the banks.
This is sarcasm, right?
prob'ly not
Thanks NoDebt, this got me thinkin' (always a dangerous process) about how this can be. One obvious thought is that a lot of QE 'money' (as digital ones and zeros) got borrowed to buy or buy back stawks. The buy backs got retired, end of velocity. The other thought is that there is an increasing amount of physical cash just sitting 'outside' of M2 - ie holed up in literal piles of cash kept outside the system in various black market operations.
I live in dope country, and I have seen a few of those piles. Trust me, right now there are many hundreds of thousands of USDs sitting in rubber-banded piles of a thousand or ten thousand each - it's harvest and move to market time - sittin' out in the hills and valleys with folks that do not have much in the way of checking or savings accounts; much less 401Ks and brokerage accounts. (Our local small-town Community Credit Union is off the fucking scale of deposits per population area served -'course this is M2).
And more cash keeps coming in, and will through November. LOTS of it - and I don't think it gtets into M2.
So how much black market cash escapes M2, and is it enough to lower the ratio significantly?
Anybody?
Ooorrr.., is today a short covering rally for what has been a good quarter for the shorts?
Awesome more money for the .00000000000000000000000000000000001%
There's no way they can start more QE this year when they've just said last week they hope to raise rates this year. They've got to get themselves out of that box first. Anyone buying here on the hope of more QE quickly is going to be really dissapointed.
ZIRP for 7 years, don't put QE4 past these Harpies and Warlocks.
Student Loan Default Swaps and Auto Loan Backed Securities...FED buying them from Wall Street hand-over-fist.
RUT is already rolling over though. I expect stokks to go back to UNCH by the time the PPT 3:30 ramp rolls around.
Not sure, End of quarter, got to keep the shit propped up.
True that.
Yep Gilnut, RUT started almost 4% up, now less than 1% - and I stopped out at open, which was OK, but I do wish I'd kept the faith. HUGE fucking buy at 1245, which bumped TZA a dime - past yesterday's open. I think RUT just might close red, but I'm pretty sure the PPT will keep the Dow and sacred 500 green for the day. Tomorrow is any fucking body's guess...
Rally so that we can unrally for the new rally.
Gartman stopped out of short ES yet?
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1.
a sudden powerful forward or upward movement, especially by a crowd or by a natural force such as the waves or tide.
"flooding caused by tidal surges"
synonyms:
gush, rush, outpouring, stream, flow More
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verbI mean how many times can those boys cry wolf. Zero Rates have been a disaster for the real economy...unless you live in a banking, IPO or government center...this is the stuff of death
The high is now beginning to dissipate before the needle has been fully withdrawn from the arm.
Humans are still selling. The Fed's plunge protection team is buying.
Audit the Fed NOW !!!
You know we're getting close when even Bloomberg admits the obvious:
U.S. Stocks Rally to Shave Worst Quarterly Rout in Four Yearsyawn. window dressing day. when clueless fund managers get to sell their losers to buy next week's losers. all with other people's money.
Today good news is good news and bad news is good new, well this AM anyway!
Surely they can kill Gold this time. What's seems to be the problem??
A measly 250 pt rally to save the quarter. Me thinks there is no conviction.
So bad news for the middle class and poor is good news for the wealthy? Damn it's so simple!
This whole thing is too fucking bizarre for me to deal with.
Still raising rates Janet?
"I would really like to (see my dot plop), but well, slack this, slack that, slack off. Macroprudentially an all, the data is um... well, you know I would really like to an all.......but...choke, choke.