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Atlanta Fed Slashes Q3 GDP Estimate By 50% To Just 0.9%
Yesterday, when the Atlanta Fed boosted its Q3 GDP tracker from 1.4% to 1.8%, the permabulls were crowing how the global recession has been called off. We are confident they will be mysteriously mute, however, following today's dramatic revision lower which cut the number for the current quarter by half to just 0.9% as a result of the previously reported tumble in the advance report on U.S. international trade which slashed the Atlanta Fed's model contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth by 0.7 percentage points to -0.9%.
As a reminder sellside consensus is at just 2.4% still, if not for long.
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Warming up for QE4.
Exactly. PPT has run out of short term ammo to keep this "market" above the 15999.99 water mark. Can't raise rates so the only tool left in the chest is there handy QEhammer.
Real GDP is at least 5% lower than that if you use accurate inflation data such as the Chapwood Index.
In 2014, official inflation was 0.8% while Chapwood Index was 9.7%. So official real GDP was inflated by 8.9% in 2014
This is in fact one reason all CB policy is failing and they know it. They are in fact lying about inflation, they know rates should have gone up a long time ago, they know hyperinflation OR the death of fiat is inevitable now.
Hedge accordingly, it''s all we can do anyway.
The system that got us into this mess is caught in its own trap and they have to lie since the truth too horrifying. The system could be fixed, but would require things like a physical monetary policy and a balanced government budget. There'll be blizzards in hell before that happens......
What magic faeiries do you imagine emerge to reward us for balancing the budget?
What is the economic benefit of a balanced budget?
Its one of the most fundamental questions/paradigm shifts of economics.
Governments are not households.
Deficit spending by governments is just another easy way for the bankers to increase the debt and avoid having their necks stretched.
When private debt formation slows, government has to pick it up or the system implodes.
Oh, and fuck economics when you deal in a debt backed fractional reserve currency. The simple money function overwhelms everything else.
pods
Balanced budgets leads to the proper deployment of capital and resources.
How fucking stupid are you? Look what "free money" and deficit spending have done you stupid fuck!!!
gross mis-allocation and mal-investment of captial and resources!!!!
Are you studying eCONomics with Krugman or something?!?!? LMFAO!!!!
We can only run a long term deficit by using funny money to buy votes and then voting for more deficits......
yes that is the problem. Welfare at all levels of society. Fuck em all. A balanced budget with mark to market GAAP means that you must produce as much real value as you consume. This means you better allocate the real capital and resources that you have wisely.
there will be MOAR
The Fed, it's analysis, and all the criminal fucks associated with this private bank should be executed for treason.
Don't think beyond that truth. We can make the death of those associated with the Atlanta Fed more humane in appreciation of their "truthiness", but otherwise fuck em.
Would you like a side of onions with your double shitburger , sir?
I recall in September of 2008 when it was finally decided that all of the early 2008 reported GDP figures were wrong and the recession really started in December of 2007.
Give Dick Fuld a kick in the ass as he is heading out the door. Cry for more charity from the people who suffer your existence and the weight of your rule in silence.
Pitiful.
Kind of like a lake in California...just slowly drying up
Not quite ... the lake is already dried up.
It is just given the illusion of having something in it with all the sewage being dumped into it.
Missed it by that >< much!
I'll say it again: the highs are now beginning to dissipate before the needle has been fully withdrawn from the arm.
But that heroin is produced in an ISO9000 compliant facility,
utilizing only organic, free-trade, non-GMO corn starch,
and certified "no preservatives added".
Put options and gold bars, bitches
S&P going under 1900. And the market breaks in 3..2..1.
Hey Gang. 0.9% is better than -0.9%. Let's cheer up ok?
Zoinks!!
Given that the US population is set to grow by 1.3% this year, 0.9% is effectively a contraction.
Of course Americans never mention this. Much easier to succumb to perverse dreams of economic collapse in 'demographic disaster zones' like Germany and Japan - where economic contraction can and regularly does mean real income growth.
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In terms of GDP, the ruling elite really need to enforce a Party Line. Divisions and disagreements, they should know, let little truths leak.
CNBC still not bringing this up. still only referencing the shit-stain ISM for the market drop.
hard to imagine they still consider themselves wall street "NEWs"
head cheerleader cramer's thesis falling apart that lo interest rates have NOT been the reason the market has gone up, the fed is NOT the reasons stocks move ... oh, and great job jimmy convincing all those people to go buy houses & load them up with shit from HD & LOW - u on the boards of those companies or do they just throw u a brown paper bag every month to fuck the little guy "like your former life on wall street"?
So then, what are the house' odds for a 2015-brand-by-any-other-name of QE if the current trajectory continues...?
The blue chips better move the goalposts again...
Typical Exit Interview
Environment
Multi-national corporations essentially print revenue per employee on scale, minimizing cost per employee to maximize profit, and trade expenses with like corporations to eliminate tax liability, maximizing rent/income per employee with real estate purchases. Although America has substantially devolved over the last decades, several effective communities remain, maximizing income/rent, and therein lies the balance. The economy distills character.
System Issues / Priorities
Real people have real expenses that must be met for them to be productive at work; IS System inadequacy is a critical failure; Many times, new supervisors simply follow the example they witnessed as staff; Corporate adopts what appears to be irrational policies each time local managers fail to solve problems, because, under the law, corporations are required to treat each individual the same, regardless of merit, and over time, so-regulated errors spin out of control.
Discussion
Labor is quite familiar with the labor pool applying for positions and their potential landlords. Making an economy ‘fit’ is far beyond corporate capability, because it requires character.
Conclusion
Economics is a chaos out of order and order out of chaos process. The utility worker has substantial leverage to increase efficiency and quality, because there are many cooks and one utility. In this position, you want to begin with order.
Just because labor is a bull in a ‘china shop’ doesn’t mean that it does not appreciate china, which is why labor keeps its distance from the product.
Oops
Is this estimate based on old or new math?
It's really negative.
Just another lie.