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Does Not Compute: DOL Continues To Paint Rosy Jobless Claims Picture As Challenger Sees "Surge" In Unemployment

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Does not compute.

That may be the best way to summarize the discrepancy between the statistically-massaged, seasonally-adjusted initial claims data reported by the DOL, which moments ago printed at 277K in the latest week, modestly higher than the 267K reported last week, and just above the 271K expected, however as the chart below shows, the claims trend remains at the lowest level seen in decades.

Even more curious was the drop in Continuing Claims which declined from 2244K to just 2191K, below the 2,230K expected, suggesting tomorrow's NFP report should have no problem priting above 200K.

Which on the surface is great... and then one looks at the Challenger Job Cuts report released just an hour earlier, which painted a dramatically different picture. From the Challenger report:

The third quarter ended with a surge in job cuts, as U.S.-based employers announced plans to shed 58,877 in September, a 43 percent increase from the previous month, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

 

The September total was third largest of the year behind July (105,696) and April (61,582). It was 93 percent higher than the 30,477 planned layoffs announced the same month a year ago.

 

In all, 205,759 job cuts were announced in the third quarter, making it the largest job-cut quarter since the third quarter of 2009, when planned layoffs totaled 240,233.

It gets even more confusing when looking at the full year trend, where one notices that so far in 2015, employers have announced 493,431 planned layoffs, 36 percent more than the 363,408 cuts tracked from January through September a year ago. The year-to-date total is actually 2.0 percent higher than the 2014 year-end total of 483,171. "The Q3 total was 40 percent higher than the previous quarter’s 181,213 job cuts. It was 75 percent higher than the third quarter of 2014, when 117,374 job cuts were announced."

 

Some commentary: "Job cuts have already surpassed last year’s total and are on track to end the year as the highest annual total since 2009, when nearly 1.3 million layoffs were announced at the tail-end of the recession,” said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas."

Most damning was the report of layoffs in the west, which according to Challenger just spiked to the highest in over three years, on the back of the mass terminations announced by Hewlett Packard in September, just so the company can buy back more stock.

And some concluding observations from Challenger:

For the year, the biggest job cutting sector is energy, which has announced 72,708 job cuts since January 1. Most of the energy cuts occurred in the first half of year, with just 12,208 job cuts recorded in the latest quarter.

 

“While oil cuts have slowed, the issues that helped drive oil prices down in the first place are still impacting the economy. We continued to see the ripple effect of low demand last month when heavy-equipment maker Caterpillar announced plans to reduce its workforce over the next year- and-a-half,” said Challenger.

 

We could see more fallout, which appears to have its origins in China, which after years of building up its national infrastructure appears to now have far too much capacity. As a result, manufacturing plants, retail stores and even entire apartment building are sitting empty.

Someone is lying, or perhaps the US Department of Labor simply did not get the memo?

 

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Thu, 10/01/2015 - 08:44 | 6615188 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

I hope Trump keeps the heat on these false BLS numbers.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 08:47 | 6615192 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

Remember the 94 million....

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 08:53 | 6615217 two hoots
two hoots's picture

 

We are near full employment but have a way to go before the decline in quality employment slows.  We will continue to have flashes of layoffs in the “produce nothing” jobs (except gov).

 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 08:55 | 6615223 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

We are near full employment

 

Hold on.....I want to snap a picture of that.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:04 | 6615262 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

It's things like this that support my "None of us will live long enough to see the next officially declared recession" comment I put up often on ZH.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:11 | 6615301 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

In the future, even thinking the word recession will get you sent to the rehabituation FEMA camps.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:35 | 6615467 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Be CAREFUL! "Recession" sounds too close to "Racist" and you will be deemed one if you declare it.

... And, as zit-faced Zuckerberg said to Angela Merkel yesterday at the UN meetings, "We're working on recasting the word "Racist" onto everything, and anything that we find distasteful, and subject the perpetrators to harsh prison times and extended fines. 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 11:05 | 6615877 silverer
silverer's picture

And don't use the word "bigger".  You have to say "larger".

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:23 | 6615308 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Everything you need to know about Employment in one picture:

http://tinyurl.com/njh28co

5% of the entire population (nearly 8% of the Labor Force) just gave up working or looking for work over the last 15 years.

Welcome back to 'That 70's Show'...

 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 08:56 | 6615226 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Someone is lying...

No shit, at this point I'd like to know of a US gubbamint agency that doesn't lie through their teeth... 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:04 | 6615257 Bill of Rights
Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:24 | 6615405 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Initial claims have no relation to the long term unemployed / underemployed numbers.

That number will not be addressed publicly.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 10:57 | 6615850 PlayMoney
PlayMoney's picture

When someone is obviously lying, and one of the options is the govt......well.........

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 08:46 | 6615190 Takeaction2
Takeaction2's picture

It amazes me...every morning I get up...check ZH...same stuff....tons of jobs being lost....wages down, ect.  Yet the show still goes on...what is holding this together??

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 08:47 | 6615194 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

Printing money.....and lots of it.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 08:53 | 6615208 Mostly Harmless
Mostly Harmless's picture

...and then you tune into the msm and it's "Everything is Awesome"...and because it's October and the best month of Football, feminists are going to get in your face with pink ribbons in their never ending quest to keep the vagina on a pedestal.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 08:58 | 6615232 Mark Mywords
Mark Mywords's picture

No matter where women put.their vaginas I'm certain the GOP will still want to control them.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:21 | 6615380 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

Someday my grandkids will ask me where I was during the great vagina wars.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 10:24 | 6615715 The Merovingian
The Merovingian's picture

Some of the fallen heroes of that Great War .....

http://www.greatwallofvagina.co.uk/great-wall-vagina-panel-2-0

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:22 | 6615394 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Since when have Liberal Dopes such as yourself cared about Vaginas? you kill Babies and sell their parts...for profit.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:27 | 6615416 novelator
novelator's picture

Can't believe anyone with a working brain still buys into the notion there's a difference between Left or Right, Dems or Repubs. They both want the same things, are working toward the same goals.

 

You must be new.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:37 | 6615476 JRobby
JRobby's picture

+1000

A divided electorate is the number one tool employed in pursuit of those goals.

It is working.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 11:43 | 6616051 schnydz
schnydz's picture

So you can't have a difference of ideas? I for one do not want a power hungry candidate looking to put government in every damn part of my life. Which is why I don't vote for anything that starts with a fucking D.  

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 11:02 | 6615867 silverer
silverer's picture

Is that why you are a Republican?

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 08:57 | 6615229 NYPoke
NYPoke's picture

EBT Cards & Apathy.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:08 | 6615282 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

See instructional video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzspsovNvII

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:12 | 6615311 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Lots of bubble gum and floss. We're fine. She can take it.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:38 | 6615422 JRobby
JRobby's picture

"Yet the show still goes on...what is holding this together??"

 

A cooperative (owned) MSM

FDIC

SSA

Food Stamps

Housing Assistance

UI

It has been 7 years now, so the "used to it" syndrome has taken hold. Dependence on GOV = control by GOV.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 10:11 | 6615659 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Everybodys kids naturally.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 12:08 | 6616143 Niall Of The Ni...
Niall Of The Nine Hostages's picture

Quite simple really. The army and police are still getting paid.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 08:54 | 6615199 ajkreider
ajkreider's picture

Well let's see.  If HP says it's going to layoff 30K employees by 2018, why wouldn't that show up in September's unemployment claims?  Hmmm. Truly, it's a mystery. 

For those that care, the unadjusted number of people collecting benefits is about 1.8 million, which is the lowest in 15 years - despite a surge in covered employees.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:04 | 6615261 Not if_ But When
Not if_ But When's picture

While your first paragraph makes a valid point, the rest is out there.

There are a sh*tload of employees who aren't eligible for a claim due to a lengthy period of unemployment before finally getting a job and then being laid off very shortly later.  And a multitude of other factors (such as laid off p/t people seeing that their UI benefits are only a pittance so they get an even shittier new p/t job to improve their standard of living - sarc/).  And people simply exhausting their benefits, etc, etc, etc

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:12 | 6615304 ajkreider
ajkreider's picture

Look, to be sure this relies on government data.  But the St. Louis Fed tracks the number of employees who are elibigle for benefits on a quarterly basis.  And that's at an all time high (it's less than total employed).  This is why the insured unemployed rate, that they also track, is at an all-time low at 1.4%.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:20 | 6615376 KansasCrude
KansasCrude's picture

With the population growing at 2% a year shouldn't every employment number be at all time highs every year...... Not a valid argument IMO

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 11:57 | 6616098 ajkreider
ajkreider's picture

Yes, but the RATE has gone down.  Which means employment is increasing faster than layoffs - which is the point.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 12:35 | 6616324 Not if_ But When
Not if_ But When's picture

Will you kindly read just one article about p/t employment and under-employment please before spouting on about how well things are going?  Thank you.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:05 | 6615267 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Benefits go away after 26 weeks. 99 weeks has been rescinded I believe. 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 11:13 | 6615908 silverer
silverer's picture

I think the admin realizes it helps to do it that way.  Because after 26 weeks, a lot of people go back out and get jobs to work long enough to qualify for another 26 weeks, then go back to deadbeat status.  This allows the DOL to churn the numbers and make it look like people are getting jobs.  I would like to see a recidivism report:  How many stay in the welfare job cycle system? Work, get fired on purpose, collect, then repeat?

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:15 | 6615289 KansasCrude
KansasCrude's picture

With 94 million out of the workforce due to a number of circumstances, mostly no jobs. Plus lots of job losses that don't qualify for unemployment benefits the number of people collecting bennies is a poor measurement.     As far as the folks not showing up for perhaps as long as two years not necessarily wrong. My brother got laid off from Sprint last year and wont' show up as unemployed until next month as he had earned a 1 year severence for his 25 years of service.....bad news is he has NOT found a job in spite of always looking for one.....So the backlog of folks from a lot of Fortune 500 laid off with severences is now flowing significantly that will also add to the sad numbers. Can also tell you the losses from the energy sectors are past getting ugly. 

I would love to see the SURGE in covered employees.....lol.  With the low end of the labor force including lots of college grads performing in the service industry where job longevity is not the standard I can't find a lot of truth in that statement.....You have to be a moron to believe the tripe the gubmint is peddling.  The only thing many believe is they are pathological liars attempting any set of illegal activities to remain in power.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:55 | 6615578 imapopulistnow
imapopulistnow's picture

The magnitude I dunno, but what is a trend, helped along by Ocare, is using part time workers. This gives companies greater ability to cut back hours rather than lay off and to encourage enployees to quit by scheduling so few hours they decide to move on. Hence, no unemployment claims by them and no rate increases on the employer.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 08:51 | 6615205 praps
praps's picture

Amazing how Tylers can write and publish this in just 15 minutes.  They've had an hour longer than that for the challenger data but still..

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:02 | 6615247 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Hilsenrath is still faster.  By a ton.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:07 | 6615276 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

"Before it's news."

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 08:51 | 6615207 abyssinian
abyssinian's picture

People lose their jobs but refused to claim unemployment, and they also stop looking for jobs, because they have so much much saved and continue to spend to support this fake economy.  let's just go with that to support these mainuplated numbers. 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 08:53 | 6615214 ghengis86
ghengis86's picture

My brother used to work for Challenger. They've git warts and problems like any big firm, but their data was solid and they do real information gathering unlike the pure fiction that is the DOL numbers.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 08:54 | 6615221 Not if_ But When
Not if_ But When's picture

There is often a delay between layoffs and actual initial claims filed.  It used to be (and I think still is) that one would have to wait for severance or any accrued vacation pay to expire before actually collecting UI benefits. 

Some file a claim right away regardless - Others wait a bit knowing this.

btw, I do not believe the household survey for 1/10th of one second.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:01 | 6615237 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Someone is lying......     Ya think so???

Not a chance!  All of the Obama regime tells the truth, just like he does!

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:02 | 6615249 ajkreider
ajkreider's picture

Well, if there's ONE stat the gov should have right, it's this one - since the states report and they should know who they are paying money to on a weekly basis.  Seems like there should be a guy in a cubicle with a few spread sheets working this stuff out in about an hour.

 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:12 | 6615306 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Got any official data about expired claims and if those people became magically "employed" after their benefits ran out?

I didn't think so.

Not our problem. Bye, and good luck.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:01 | 6615244 RobD
RobD's picture

Got word of more layoffs coming by the end of the year where I work. Would be the third wave this year. We are already pretty thin but as I posted last week things have slooooooowed way down.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 12:21 | 6616228 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"Got word of more layoffs coming by the end of the year where I work."

Which Industry: Tech, health, Financial, etc?

 

 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:13 | 6615313 slnewton42
slnewton42's picture

Millenials living with their parents working at Starbucks. 80% of the jobs during the recovery are service sector (read that wait staff). Millenials are putting off their first house; remember housing drives the economy... it will impact at some point. The student debt can't be discharged and impacts ability to get a mortgage.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:25 | 6615409 Phillyguy
Phillyguy's picture

Employment statistics put out by the Labor Department are fiction. Good jobs continue to be out-sourced to low wage platforms in Mexico, China, etc. >90% of “new” jobs are Temp positions- low pay, no benefits or job security.  See: The US Economy Continues Its Collapse by Paul Craig Roberts; Link: www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/08/10/us-economy-continues-collapse-paul-c...

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:27 | 6615414 fowlerja
fowlerja's picture

I wondered what does "statistically massaged" data mean well I could not have  said it better...  

"Scans of mental activity, such as fMRI or PET, are basically complex graphs that represent the relationships of data gathered in very narrowly defined experiments and which are then statistically massaged with special-purpose software. But for most of us non-scientists, it’s easy to look at these images as objective snapshots of thought. It is even easier for us to impose what we want to believe about human nature on those pictures, getting a comforting feeling of certainty."

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 09:56 | 6615591 MASTER OF UNIVERSE
MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

White man speak with forked tongue.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 10:28 | 6615732 homebody
homebody's picture

Companies must lay off thousands more so the country can avoid a full depression - Obama economics triple seasonally adjusted of course

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 10:28 | 6615735 silverlining
silverlining's picture

Headlines on unemployment/jobless numbers are a joke. The 'Not in Labor Force' number has climbed from ~78mil in 2008 to now 94mil. 16mil more Americans in past 7 years have decided they don't need a job anymore? Living off food stamps is better live huh? What lame propaganda.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 11:00 | 6615858 silverer
silverer's picture

Chicago politics changed the job goals of virtually all the US departments.  They've all been politicized and corrupted.  Their job is now to try to get sheeple to continue to believe everything is OK so the looting of the US treasury can continue as long as possible.  After the collapse occurs, the president will claim he read about it in the papers, and agree with everyone about what a sad and unforeseeable tragedy it was.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 11:19 | 6615943 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

The headlines are all absurd lies.

The good news is that DOL does still supply reliable statistics if you dig down.

I wonder how long that can last.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 11:47 | 6616061 GTC
GTC's picture

DOL = Dept of Laughter

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!