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This Is The Endgame, According To Deutsche Bank

Tyler Durden's picture




 

DB's Jim Reid lays out the "endgame" scenario, one which this website first said is inevitable back in 2009. With Citi and Macquarie already on board, expect what was once merely the figment of a "deranged tinfoil conspiracy-theory blog's" imagination, to become global monetary policy. And yes, the real endgame is the one we have said from day one: total fiat (and conventional economics) collapse.

* * *

From Deutsche Bank's chief credit strateigst

Our thesis over the last few years has basically been that the global financial system/economic fundamentals are so bad that its good for financial assets given it forces central banks into extraordinary stimulus and for them to continue to buy assets in never before seen volumes. The system failed in 2008/09 and rather than allow a proper creative destruction cleansing, policy makers have been aggressively propping it up ever since. This has surely led to a large level of inefficiency in the system which helps explain weak post crisis growth and thus forces them to do even more thus supporting asset prices if not the global economy.

However since the summer this theory has been severely tested by China's equity bubble bursting, China's small 'shock' devaluation and the start of a rundown in reserves for the first time in over a decade. We've also seen associated commodities and EM woes, endless unsettling speculation about the Fed's next move and more recently the idiosyncratic corporate scandal around VW and funding concerns around Glencore. The hits keep on coming. Is it now so bad it’s actually bad again?

The most recent leg of the sell-off begun after the Fed held rates steady two weeks ago as the narrative focused on either this reflecting worrying economic concerns or a Fed that is a slave to financial markets and losing credibility. So do we think we're now entering a period where central banks are increasingly impotent? The answer is that they have been for a while on growth so not much has changed. However they can still buy more assets and continue to keep policy loose. Although we don't think QE and zero interest rates does much apart from prop up an inefficient financial system it’s all we've got until we have a huge policy sea change which probably only happens in the next recession (more later).

So for now we think central banks are trapped into continuing on the same high liquidity path. The BoJ and the ECB are likely to do more QE in my opinion and the Fed is going to have a real struggle raising rates this year which has been our long-term view. Indeed we have sympathy with DB's Dominic Konstam that they may also struggle in 2016. At the moment central banks are fortunate that they have the conditions to do more as virtually all are failing on their mandate to keep inflation close to or at 2%. The real problem would be if inflation was consistently looking like breaching 2%. Then central banks would generally be going beyond their mandate by printing money and keeping rates close to zero. So in short the 'plate spinning' era continues for a number of quarters yet and certainly while inflation is so low.

We think the end game is that when the next global recession hits, then QE/zero rate world will be re-appraised. Perhaps the G20 will get together and decide to try a different approach. In our 2013 long-term study we speculated how we thought the end game was 'helicopter money' - ie money printing to finance economic objectives (tax cuts, infrastructure etc). While it has obvious flaws and huge risks (eg political manipulation and inflation), one can argue it will always have more economic impact than QE in its current form. However that's perhaps a couple of years away still.

For now, a lot depends on whether the turmoil accelerates the next recession quicker than we think. If 2016 is a recessionary year for the US and the global economy with China growing notably south of 6% then risk assets will fall significantly further. However if the global economy stumbles on in positive territory then risk assets will likely recover, especially if the ECB and BoJ do more and the Fed continues to hold or as a minimum reduces the dots a fair degree on any small hike. That's our base case for the moment and fortunately our main asset class - namely credit - is starting to get to levels where we have only been wider during recessions or during the existential Euro crisis of 2011/12. So the risk reward looks decent. VW and Glencore have sucked Euro IG into the problems that US credit has been dealing with all year but I'm not sure they're symptomatic of a wider DM corporate governance issue in the VW case or a precursor for similar funding concerns elsewhere in the case of Glencore.

Yes we've moved into a higher volatility world. To be fair we thought this would be the case ever since the Fed stopped QE 12 months ago. This marked the point where there was a bit more two way central bank tension. The ECB and BoJ haven't been able to completely offset it. However higher vol usually brings better entry levels and therefore it isn't necessarily a bad thing when investing new money. Obviously it would have been better to have been more defensive this year which we regret but one has to regroup and look at things as they stand now.
For Q4, the seasonals start to look better. Experience tells you that if there is going to be a scare then August and September seem to be the months these scares get amplified. By mid October markets often enjoy a better run into YE and into the start of the new year. While it seems crazy to base one's entire investment strategy on the calendar it’s not usually wise to go against seasonals. China's data is probably the key macro factor though. If the data stabilises as our own economist Zhiwei Zhang thinks (he was more bearish than consensus in H1 but thinks stimulus will now kick in) then the market's nerves will calm and vol will fall. If he's wrong then we may have to consider a worst global growth outcome for 2016 and recession risks that mount. So a lot depends on China into YE. Given its opaque nature one can see why there is concern and confusion and whilst we're medium-term bears on China's economic sustainability we think for now they have ammunition to manage the economy - albeit one that is increasingly inefficient and propped up like many others around the world.

In short it’s a highly inefficient global economy and financial system absent the arguably necessary creative destruction post the GFC. However for now we still think we're in the highly accommodative central bank 'plate spinning' era and think assets will respond more positively in Q4.

* * *

Because doing more of the same that has already failed, is all that's left. And, let's not forget, there's always this...

 

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Thu, 10/01/2015 - 12:55 | 6616444 PrawnStar313
PrawnStar313's picture

*spits coffee on PC screen*

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 12:56 | 6616455 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, more garbage from some very scared paper-pushers, fuck em.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:04 | 6616502 strannick
strannick's picture

Deutsche Bank desperate for an endgame reset as it has more f"ed up derivates than any other megabank

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:18 | 6616584 negative rates
negative rates's picture

If insanity is the name of the game, then doing more of what has failed is a prudent policy.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:44 | 6616733 froze25
froze25's picture

OK, heres my plan.  We jackup another 1 trillion in debt, build the Space elevator, mine asteroids and create major space infrastructure.   

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:47 | 6616743 eurogold
eurogold's picture

Look out DB is going to blow soon ! Taking everyone with them.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:49 | 6616753 coinhead
coinhead's picture

No shit... isn't this article about a pot calling something a negro?

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 14:32 | 6616983 F22
F22's picture

Dude...did somebody say pot??

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 15:26 | 6617296 The Pope
The Pope's picture

Translation: DB announces that it's the next Lehman.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 20:58 | 6618797 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

Translation: DB announces ZeroHedge has been right all along.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:49 | 6616752 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

A lot of people and funds went short for the comming crash.

Everybody is almost 100% sure it's comming real soon and a shitload of people went short on a 1 month time horizon to make sure they'll more the maximum amount of profit for the cheapest price.

If it crashes in the next month, they'll make over 1000% in profits.

BUT!!!

What if it doesn't crash?

What if it goes sideways?

Or what if it goes up? Their losses would be astronomical!!!

And don't forget that derivatives are a zero sum game! There's a shitload of people who have interest in keeping this market sideways!!!

So read about a total reset real real soon with a bucket of salt.

I've seen numbers that aren't so bad at all for the industry. And for a player like deutche bank who went massively short, that could kill them causing a crash of it's own but to late to save them.

4 week

4 weeks and if the market doesn't crash then a lot of big boys will bite the dust and cause a crash on their own.

And who would be interested in a scenario like that... GoSh GS I don't know... who profited from the Lehman crash and who is a pro in playing this game...

Remember, the market is NEVER EVER predictable!!

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 14:09 | 6616867 negative rates
negative rates's picture

I hear things are good in Austin Texas right now, might move there soon myself, good weather, lots o jobs, family close by, gonna have to consider it, that or baltimore, check back with me in 3 days.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 19:20 | 6618409 divedivedive
divedivedive's picture

I'm in Austin at the moment - first time back in 17 years. I liked it better back then. The new airport is massive. The traffic is oppressive. I can't believe how patient these people are. To me - the town feels very much like Orlando. Lots of young hopeful/wishful people - who won't last long. But Austin is a very pretty town.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 19:44 | 6618516 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

 

"If it crashes in the next month, they'll make over 1000% in profits.

BUT!!!

What if it doesn't crash?"

When the "players" short the market, the players will crash the market.

 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 14:18 | 6616911 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Deutsche Bank desperate for an endgame reset as it has more f"ed up derivates than any other megabank

Deutschebank is not the only one interested in getting on with the endgame.  They have shit they want to do, and I have shit I want to do.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 15:31 | 6617335 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

DB acting more and more like the Lehman....  Dead company walking....   Lets keep it alive and instead let the world die....

 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:04 | 6616510 JRobby
JRobby's picture

"The system failed in 2008/09 and rather than allow a proper creative destruction cleansing, policy makers have been aggressively propping it up ever since."

7 years later, this is not news

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:09 | 6616538 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

7 days later this wasn't news. When those fuckers stood behind Paulson that day with his napkin in his hand. We all should have known we were fucked !!!!!!

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:20 | 6616601 negative rates
negative rates's picture

a couple of paulsons drug dealers were taken out and he flipped his lid, could happen any day of the week.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:25 | 6616638 hannah
hannah's picture

we were fucked back in 1913 when they approved a central bank. nothing 100 years later will change the inevitable collapse of a fraud system. qe doesnt matter. interest rates dont matter. the debt is too great. the only end game is total collapse of fiat to zero value....

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:46 | 6616739 froze25
froze25's picture

True in deed.  Fire up the Lazarus machine and re-animate Andrew Jackson.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 14:37 | 6617005 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

The Only Problem Is That It Could Take Decades To Play out. Forces Everyone To Play Their Game

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 14:51 | 6617093 Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

In an energy based economy, irregardless if all energy based products settle with your currency, the game is over when the energy is gone.

2 generations left.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 15:30 | 6617322 The Pope
The Pope's picture

In a literary based economy, "irregardless" is not in the dictionary the same way that it is inside THE MYSTERY MACHINE

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 15:39 | 6617382 Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

Oh great my 'grammer' lesson of the day.

You wanna play with Scooby bro? Welcome to The Bite Club!
http://www.1888goodwin.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/dog-bite.jpg

Try it bro!

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 16:02 | 6617494 The Pope
The Pope's picture

My bad. Who in their right mind would EVER pick a fight with Scooby Doo? My comment was merely a hidden & exploitative attempt to post a link to sexy Daphne (in a bikini), for the benefit of everyone here who, like myself, have relinquished all grip with reality and have subsequently regressed themselves to the cartoon world.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 18:15 | 6618146 Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

Pzzzzft. Whatever bro.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:05 | 6616515 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

You've gotta have sympathy, or else....

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkXIYgsvO0c

 

 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:07 | 6616526 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

GS, Citi, DB, ol' Marc of Marc to Market fame, the US$ proponent at Brown Brothers Harriman, and all the other traitors who have destroyed the economy now get to lecture us on what they see coming. If I planned a prank on someone I could probably tell you what was going to happen, too. 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 17:44 | 6617999 tommylicious
tommylicious's picture

fukk dey ayss.  they just tryin' to rev up the q4 bonus pool mark!

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:23 | 6616623 Kurpak
Kurpak's picture

I thought Deutsche bank's 75 trillion in derivatives exposure was the end game. 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 12:55 | 6616447 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"creative destruction cleansing.."""  What the fuck?  How about prosecuting, convicting and EXECUTING the financial fucking perps!!!!

Nothing changes until this  happens motherfuckers!!!!

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 12:59 | 6616468 J Jason Djfmam
J Jason Djfmam's picture

That would be just like Nazi Germany's persecution of Jews.

Without the Nazi Germany part.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:01 | 6616482 Jethro
Jethro's picture

The PC movement has backfired, because their ammunition, "racist" no longer works. You can only be called a racist so many times before the accusation turns you into one.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:17 | 6616579 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

The PC movement knew that race can only be exploited to a certain extent. Therefore they chose other avenues: homosexuality, gender, and obscenity in general (look at what they show on teevee...) It looks like it's working out really well for them.

Highly suggest watching the new South Parks this season if you haven't yet. Good god... is the commentary more righteous than ever.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:33 | 6616676 Jethro
Jethro's picture

....I gave up TV a long time ago.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:47 | 6616745 froze25
froze25's picture

Then Download them, legally of coarse.  The New Southparks are seriously great.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 14:00 | 6616813 general ambivalent
general ambivalent's picture

Did the show recover from Season 15 (2011)? Thought it went downhill then and stopped watching.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:51 | 6616761 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

"We need to be looking forward, not backward"- BHO

 

 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:55 | 6616784 general ambivalent
general ambivalent's picture

Some migrant crisis comedy, pretty funny:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyE78eyFRa8

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:04 | 6616486 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

We all know that isn't true thanks to affirmative action in America!  Case in point, we will be executing Jamie Dimon and Blyth Masters!!!

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 21:35 | 6618943 Tallest Skil
Tallest Skil's picture

The Haavara Agreement was the best thing to happen to Germany in a long time at that point.

Shame the Brits wouldn't just protect those poor talmudists as their ships sailed to Palestine... 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 15:23 | 6617279 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

"How about prosecuting, convicting and EXECUTING the financial fucking perps! "

 

+1 

ISIS has the right idea but is beheading the wrong people...

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 12:57 | 6616459 Fester
Fester's picture

"Re-appraised" as in kill the banker.  Ok, where do I sign up.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:00 | 6616476 matinee55
matinee55's picture

add painfully in front of kill please

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:05 | 6616466 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Sigh... can't make it to ten words without a spelling mistake.

edit: Thanks Tyler - you're on it.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:07 | 6616525 Mostly Harmless
Mostly Harmless's picture

Yea, I gave up pointing out grammatical / spelling errors years ago.  It really doesn't take that long to PROOF READ.  I think the online world has brought us to a place where cranking out info is more important than the quality of said info.

…I'm also willing to bet that most of the comments (even on ZH) are posted without even reading the entire thing.  Sigh…the "Idiocracy" is catching.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:15 | 6616570 Ataxic Press
Ataxic Press's picture

I think the online world has brought us to a place where cranking out info is more important than the quality of said info.

OMG - your cynacism knob is turned up to eleven.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 18:07 | 6618099 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

"Proofread" is one word, not two

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 18:12 | 6618127 o r c k
o r c k's picture

If at rally thit impatant?

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 14:28 | 6616950 Right-on Left-off
Right-on Left-off's picture

I think the online world has brought us to a place where cranking out info is more important than the quality of said info.

I'd say it's gotten to the point that there is no decipherable info.  With the mis-spellings and innuendo language (or is it white man's ebonics?) it's often impossible to even get an inkling of what is being conveyed.  I now skip posts where in the beginning (years ago) I never used to.


Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:00 | 6616478 Diplodicus Rex
Diplodicus Rex's picture

"However that's perhaps a couple of years away still."

Please tell me that's not true...

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:02 | 6616485 Jethro
Jethro's picture

each day this continues, is another day to prepare.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:01 | 6616483 RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

DB is right...central banks should have let DB's derivative book blow up.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:27 | 6616648 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

"The system failed in 2008/09 and rather than allow a proper creative destruction cleansing, policy makers have been aggressively propping it up ever since.  "

 

You criminals would know as well as anyone since you blew your own balls off trying to skim and steal the collective productivity of the entire world...

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:02 | 6616489 Vlad the Inhaler
Vlad the Inhaler's picture

"If 2016 is a recessionary year for the US and the global economy with China growing notably south of 6% then risk assets will fall significantly further. However if the global economy stumbles on in positive territory then risk assets will likely recover"  In other words, our thesis is that the market might go up, or the market might go down.  Where's my bonus??

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:03 | 6616500 TheIlluminaughty
TheIlluminaughty's picture

DB: "Shoot me now and get it over with"

This reads like a proverbial suicide note 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:06 | 6616512 buzzsaw99
Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:06 | 6616519 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

They better RESET ASAP. ...... People I talk to are finally not paying the debt any more...... I'm not sure if they have some have finally woke up or they just can't do it anymore. ..... But the end results are pretty much the same. ....... People are sick and tired and pissed off.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:24 | 6616630 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Yeah we are fed up with being fed up, if we lose our motivation, it's game over.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:06 | 6616521 HoserF16
HoserF16's picture

< DB should be saved by the tax payers it's been screwing for decades

< DB should be Abolished; which will inturn, bring-down the entire global banking system. (My Choice)

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:08 | 6616524 doggis
doggis's picture

at the moment central banks are fortunate that they have the conditions to do more as virtually all are failing on their mandate to keep inflation close to or at 2%. The real problem would be if inflation was consistently looking like breaching 2%.

WTF!!! SHOW ME ANYWHERE IN THE LEGAL "ACTS" THAT CREATED THESE CENTRAL BANKS, WHERE IT SPELLS OUT A 2% MANDATE???

WHO THE F*CK LABOURER WANTS TO LOSE 50% OF THE PURCHASING POWER OF THEIR RESPECTIVE CURRENCY IN THEIR LIFETIME?? ONLY THE CORRUPT MOTHER F'S CALLED "BANKSTERS - THAT IS WHO[M]!!!!!

PS MR REID - CREATIVE DESTRUCTION INCLUDES YOUR CESSPOOL OF FRAUD AND STEALING OF DEUTSCHE BANK!!! DB SHOULE HAVE BEEN FOLDED IN 08/09 AS IT WAS INSOLVENT!!

 

 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:08 | 6616537 HoserF16
HoserF16's picture

Doogy, my ears are ringin' but I like your style.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:07 | 6616529 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

"We think the end game is that when the next global recession hits, then QE/zero rate world will be re-appraised. Perhaps the G20 will get together and decide to try a different approach."

Pffft! More like "then a QEx/negative rate world." The central bank emperors cannot dare admit they have no clothes and that their economic theory is pure garbage. 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:13 | 6616555 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

their economic theory worked exactly as planned

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:08 | 6616532 MASTER OF UNIVERSE
MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

The end game was engineered to be zero sum so that ZOMBIE Empire would eventually manifest in reality to take out all the Corporatists that have ripped us all off out of sheer greed, & hubris.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:08 | 6616534 wmbz
wmbz's picture

"The system failed in 2008/09 and rather than allow a proper creative destruction cleansing, policy makers have been aggressively propping it up ever since".

 

That is an absolute fact, but who thought or thinks that CB's would ever alow that to happen? The shit has not even close to hitting the fan yet.

Before it does these assholes will pull out all of the stops and go to wharp factor 5 on the printing press. So the fecal matter will splattered all over the world.

That we can count on.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:26 | 6616646 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Yeah, it will bounce back off the wall and into their mouth.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:50 | 6616756 froze25
froze25's picture

Then we can take that shit that they ate, re-shitted and re-feed it to them so they are eating re-shitted shit.  The worse type of shit there is.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 14:10 | 6616870 wizteknet
wizteknet's picture

no thank you

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:09 | 6616540 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

"allow a proper creative destruction cleansing"

Bailout bank recipients ranked largest to smallest:

1. Deutsche Bank

2..............

Why is Germany looking for free resources in Ukraine?

Any questions?

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:13 | 6616554 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Bingo, don't overthink this people.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:11 | 6616547 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

The data that these institutions are looking at definitely indicate that a recession is imminent.  They are especially worried that the Fed didn't increase rates because there is no wiggle room left.  Once the Fed sets the rate in negative territory we are truly in an unknown scenario.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:16 | 6616575 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

allow a proper creative destruction cleansing

Dennie Hastert
John Boehner
RNC
DNC

and slated...
Hillary
Kerry
Buyh(s)
Rubio
Pelosi
.........

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:27 | 6616653 venturen
venturen's picture

they are puppets....that actually have no power. 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:45 | 6616726 optimator
optimator's picture

CHANIN OF COMMAND:

BIS

IMF

FED

BANKSTERS

GOVERNMENT

 

 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 14:11 | 6616875 wizteknet
wizteknet's picture

u forgot mcconnell

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:16 | 6616576 Doom and Dust
Doom and Dust's picture

Helicopter money is a red herring, and a dead one at that. Ain't gonna happen. Even Helicopter Ben couldn't pull it off. Current QE is in fact very effective in making the super rich even super richer, doubly so when everyone else becomes poorer.

Never change a winning scam.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:33 | 6616674 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Helicopter money comes in different forms. The Bush administration used helicopter money in the form of tax rebates twice.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:43 | 6616730 Doom and Dust
Doom and Dust's picture

Good point. But it didn't print that money, merely borrowed it from the rest of the world. And no administration can print money since that business is privatized.

 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 14:02 | 6616807 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That's the point, they borrowed it, which is how our debt based currency comes into being. The treasury issues debt which is then bought up by the primary dealers. The fed then buys the bond with their funny money, putting helicopter money in the system. Simply put; our "money" is borrowed into existence. 

 

http://www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse/chapter-8-fed-money-creation

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:41 | 6616719 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

Doom and Dust - I expect a helicopter drop to families between $3k-$4k early next year. It wont end the deflation cycle but slow the inevitable contraction down a bit. That will be a time I put in extra hours for my small biz for further hedging. The whole idea if your not very wealthy is to be the last one having to eat beans daily. 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:58 | 6616803 Doom and Dust
Doom and Dust's picture

I believe a helicopter drop on the scale of current QE? would in fact be very effective in ending the deflation cycle (as well as helping my own small biz). I just don't see it happening given current interests and powers alignment.

The whole idea if you are very wealthy and yields are low is to make everyone else poorer. Wealth itself is a relative thing.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:19 | 6616599 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

The Roman empire did ponzi for 900 years, they didn't have facebook.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:22 | 6616614 ghostzapper
ghostzapper's picture

The end game for DB is its equity trading at $0.00.  

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:23 | 6616618 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

We think the end game is that when the next global recession hits, then QE/zero rate world will be re-appraised."

The "next global recession"???...

Jimmy... you be puffin some fine shit brotha!!!

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:29 | 6616662 venturen
venturen's picture

what is shocking is the raw acknowledgement that the leaders are on a road to nowhere....just plate spinning until the day of reckoning. 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:40 | 6616712 optimator
optimator's picture

No, not the road to nowhere, they've taken us down the current road before, Weimar Germany.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:35 | 6616682 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

This is like the guy who hasn't paid his bill in four years, telling you he "might" be going bankrupt.

No shit Sherlock.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:42 | 6616725 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

China just needs to loan all those SOEs enough money to cover current debts and then some.

Sure, it is the gateway to hyperinflationary hell....but we are already on that one way road so why not make the journey as enjoyable as possible.

The well informed know that these loans will never need to be paid back (because that is not possible without unrealistic growth) so they will take the money ,live another day and watch as the monetary system collapses and along with it all debt obligations.

...hey buddy can you spare a dime (or half a trillion of them).

At this point if someone was willing to lend me a billion at low interest on a 10 year payback, I'd take it. I would budget enough to ensure I could make payments for 5 years. If I was wrong and math is no longer applicable in today's system...well, hopefully my estate can sort it out. If I'm correct I buy some of those eternal life  treatments and enjoy my last few centuries of life learning Mandarin and finally get good at shredding on the 6 string....and maybe finally learn to do a proper long draw shot on the pool table.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:46 | 6616741 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

What I want to know is DB exposure to the VW debacle.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 14:01 | 6616820 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

Does it matter to DB before they sell the shares?

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 14:19 | 6616915 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

Don't care about VW shares.

More interested in DB.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:48 | 6616746 Helllo123
Helllo123's picture

Anybody has a course document from Deutsche for us please?

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:50 | 6616755 nnnnnn
nnnnnn's picture

the system failed because us-oligarch jews made it fail  

 

 

they didnt let it fall into ression as it should do

they abadoned gold standart

they printed endless money to give their own cooperations

they forced people to invest their money and let them gamble

they destroyed the middle class and people are in debt/student loan before they even start to work

they invest endless money into military and world control

 

just imagine how fucked up it is. the rigged system is on collapse and the goldprice is on the lowes lows since mid 2011

i posted some months back the gold price will fall even lower  because its a fucking scam system 

if you invested in gold they want you to lose on gold  wtf

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:57 | 6616779 froze25
froze25's picture

I don't think these "Jews" are really "Jews", I know some Jews and do business with them.  They are alright guys, no BS and live up to their end of the deal.  Most of them I have done volunteer work with for non-jews (well I don't really know what religion the people that benefited were).  I think its safe to say that the people on the top, behind the curtain if anything are Satanist that may call themselves Christians or Jews but really aren't.  Probably why they are so concerned about Life extension so that they can delay the final reckoning with the GOD. 

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 13:57 | 6616795 insect0man
insect0man's picture

DoucheBank.

Ameriquest/Argent Mortgage's primary warehouse lender?

THAT Douchebank?

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 14:21 | 6616919 Not My Real Name
Not My Real Name's picture

Actually, that looks more like signs of somebody interested in pimping his blog.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 14:18 | 6616904 kelley805
Thu, 10/01/2015 - 14:23 | 6616928 Not My Real Name
Not My Real Name's picture

Do you also have a sister who makes $43924.43 a week working from home on the Internet? (Not that I'm interested.)

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 20:13 | 6616942 TrustbutVerify
TrustbutVerify's picture

I would like to see a detailed listing of what makes up the derivatives column as shown above, and elsewhere.  Are puts and calls not derivatives?  And in the case of an 'adjustment' or correction, to what extent to these derivatives cancel themselves out?  

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 14:47 | 6617070 Raoul_Luke
Raoul_Luke's picture

Yep, ZIRP, Helicopter Money and then Hyperinflation.  We know what, we just don't know when.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 15:00 | 6617139 MauritiusGold
MauritiusGold's picture

Do analysts ever analyse their own companies?

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 15:05 | 6617173 polo007
polo007's picture

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/30/us-markets-bonds-ecb-idUSKCN0R...

Extending quantitative easing challenges ECB's bond holding limits

LONDON  |  By Marius Zaharia

If the European Central Bank decides to extend its asset-purchase program in response to global growth risks and flatlining inflation, it could hit its self-imposed limits on bond ownership in several countries within a year.

Analysts say this would happen first in Portugal and Finland, followed closely by the most important euro zone member, Germany.

The limits on individual bond holdings, set by the ECB to avoid becoming mired in any future debt restructurings, were raised for most government bonds to 33 percent from 25 percent earlier this month.

Other factors defining how long the ECB could extend QE include a ban on holding more than a third of any country's government debt and the fact that bonds must be bought in proportion to each country's contribution to the ECB's capital.

If the ECB hits those limits in Germany, it could, in theory, buy other low-risk German assets such as corporate debt or government agency debt.

And if even more easing were necessary, analysts say the ECB would simply scrap the limits on the German assets it can buy.

But would the ECB take a similar decision in junk-rated Portugal, or would it simply leave a country it has publicly praised for its economic reforms out of a stimulus program?

If Portugal, which had to be bailed out in 2011 needs to restructure its still onerous debt in the foreseeable future, the ECB would find it hard to avoid any losses if it held more than a third of its debt.

"The limits are important. The higher the share of the market you own the more problematic it becomes to engineer a restructuring if needed down the line," said Luca Cazzulani, rate strategist at UniCredit, who estimates the limit would be reached in Portugal as soon as the current trillion-euro QE program ends in September 2016.

"This is the trade-off, but I don't know where they would put themselves in this trade-off."

CREDIBILITY

Working out how long extended QE might last is difficult. Analysts must make assumptions on the future price of the bonds and the pace of government debt issuance, among others. Bonds from Italy, Spain or Portugal that the ECB bought at the height of the crisis under a previous scheme called the Securities Markets Programme (SMP), which count toward the totals, further complicates the picture.

Cazzulani, who does not include future debt issuance in his estimates, says the ECB could buy German debt for seven more months at today's 60 billion euros per month pace after the current scheme ends.

Citi strategists, who assume no change in the pace of debt issuance but do not include SMP purchases, say extended QE would first run into ECB limit in Finland, then in Germany, at around the same time in October 2017.

That may seem as a long way off, but ratings agency Standard & Poor's has said it expects QE to reach 2.4 trillion and be extended to mid-2018.

If the limit were reached in Finland or Portugal, "they would fudge it", says Harvinder Sian, global head of G10 rates strategy at Citi. "These countries are not systemically important."

In practice, they would probably slow down bond purchases in these countries before the limit was reached.

In the end, discussion of limits on QE, which risk leaving the ECB without ammunition, may be academic.

"If the ECB wants to do it, they will do it and ignore any of the previous limits they previously imposed on themselves," said Marius Daheim, senior fixed income strategist at SEB.

"If they feel it really is economically necessary to expand QE they will not back off just because it would violate 25 or 33 percent buying restrictions. That could be the maximum loss of credibility they could impose on themselves."

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 15:50 | 6617440 Exit through th...
Exit through the gift store's picture

The party is over as soon as the bunkers are complete.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 17:06 | 6617778 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

The Global Economy is 'Bernie' from 'A Weekend at Bernies'.

 

One hand is marked 'Emerging Markets'...and the hand raises as a Central Bank puppeteer raises it.

One hand is marked 'Developed World' ...and that hand rises and falls in response to another Central Bank puppeteer.

A foot is marked 'Commodities'...and it, too, has proven to rise and fall in response not to the needs of the body economic, but in response to a Central Bank or Government puppeteer.

And another foot is marked 'FOREX'...and again the same.

 

And if you've seen 'Weekend at Bernies' you will note that despite how 'Bernie' stumbles about in a most unconvincing manner, his family, employees, and business partners long suspend their disbelief in him, and never evince the slightest suspicion that he might be dead.

So he shambles about falling into one catastrophe after another that would kill any living man for a long time before anyone stumbles on the truth.

He's dead.

Yet, once it is acknowledged that he is dead, the world does not come to an end.  The family mourns and moves on.  The business changes hands.  The employees find new positions. And life goes on.

And the tragic things are not these transitions.  These transitions are the inevitable evidence of life.

The tragedy is that for a while they were all the captives of a dead thing.  They were captives because the fear of change was greater than the change itself.

Such are we.

Thu, 10/01/2015 - 17:04 | 6617808 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

Which flavor of collapse is your preference?

 

Would you prefer to default on your mortgage, and any other debts you have, while the real value of any cash-on-hand you have sky-rockets... when debt contagion collapses the money supply?

Or would you rather have the value of your paper assets, stock, bonds, currency, etc go to zero while thier nominal value explodes, as people lose faith in the currency, and everything whose value is tied to it in preference for concrete physical objects?

One or the other was inevitable since the world embarked on this road at the end of the 19th Century.

Sat, 10/03/2015 - 05:37 | 6624202 Elio
Elio's picture

I dont believe this helicopter money thing seriously even for a second. Do you guys seriously believe they are going to give you FREE MONEY WITHOUT INTEREST ?? If that happens that would be a good day because that means DEBT SYSTEM TOTALLY COLLAPSED.

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