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Major Hurricane Bears Down On Bahamas, May Make US Landfall By Sunday
It’s no secret that PhD economists employed both in the public and private sectors enjoy scapegoating the weather for bad economic outcomes (e.g. “snow in the winter,” “residual seasonality,” poor jobs data is all summer’s fault, etc.), and all sarcasm aside, natural disasters can and do occasionally wreak havoc on economies (not to mention people) and so it’s probably important to take note of Joaquin, the 10th storm of the season which is bearing down on the Bahamas, threatens the US East Coast, and has some folks buying Home Depot shares.
Here’s Bloomberg:
Joaquin became a major hurricane as it tears toward the Bahamas and government forecasters said they can’t rule out a strike on the U.S. East Coast as early as Sunday.
The 10th storm of the Atlantic season had top wind speeds of 120 miles (193 kilometers) an hour as of 5 a.m. New York time, up from 115 mph earlier. It was about 65 miles southeast of San Salvador, Bahamas, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory. Computer models diverge on the storm’s track, with one from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts taking Joaquin away from the U.S. mainland and into the Atlantic. Others predict it will hit the Eastern Seaboard, possibly near Washington.
Joaquin’s hurricane-strength winds are forecast to reach the Bahamas early Thursday. It’s a Category 3 system on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, a major hurricane with sustained wind speeds of at least 111 mph. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day with top winds of 140 mph, according to the NHC.
Here's your full Joaquin preview courtesy of the National Hurricane Center:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015
...MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL BATTER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 73.7W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM N OF SAMANA CAYS BAHAMAS
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bimini
* Andros Island
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Andros Island
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete in the central Bahamas.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 73.7 West. Joaquin is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west- northwest is forecast tonight, followed by a turn toward the north and an increase in forward speed on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will move near or over portions of the central Bahamas today and tonight and pass near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast in the next day or so, with some fluctuations in intensity possible on Friday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (27.99 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of the central Bahamas through Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Friday. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeastern Bahamas through tonight.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the northwest Bahamas within the hurricane warning area, and 1 to 2 feet is expected in the southeast Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected over the southeastern Bahamas with 2 to 4 inches over the northwestern Bahamas. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States today and spread northward through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
And here's a look at the possible paths for US landfall...
Of course you can take that with a grain of salt because after all, weathermen are surpassed in their abject inability to make accurate forecasts only by economists.
In any event, for those looking to trade around Joaquin, consider the following...
Home Supply $HD, Generators $GNRC, Water Treatment $FLS, Roofing Material $OC stocks up today. #Joaquin pic.twitter.com/qM06dP688r
— Bryan Wood (@bryanwx) September 30, 2015
With a hurricane closing in on the East Coast, shares of home supply companies have rallied http://t.co/BBd9Dheonj pic.twitter.com/NQl1GQjsMV
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) October 1, 2015
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Is Obama Home?
Wall street is a tie.
Ok, here goes.
Dear God,
Wipe those fuckers out.
Signed,
Pissed off
Sooooo, this is bullish, right?
Yes, they will now have a narrative to use in explaining the bad economic data. It's not as surprising as snow in winter but it will do.
Joaquin, Pedro, Juanita, Perez, Fernando, Rodriguez... all have been bearing down on and making landfall in the U.S. for decades. Why the hype all of a sudden?
It's coming straight at us!! <runs in circles, waving hands in the air>
(Screams and jumps out the window)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anwW_5kialI
AAAAAAAGH!
WE need to have the incompetent punks in Washington tax 'global warming' (i.e. carbon tax) so that these hurricanes go away.
Because they are so competent at fixing things.
Because hurricanes prove that global warming is real despite the fact that temp hasn't risen since 1998 while CO2 concentration has.
Stupid is as stupid does...
The 1998 claim is laughable...
I was wondering when you would show back up to lecture us again.
A hurricane thread, lol....no doubt.
Yes Flaky, provide us with links that are even more laughable.
If Gartman was a weatherman, he'd be warning Cuba of a direct hit right now.
It's impossible to serve up anything as ridiculous as WUWT...
BTW, 17 or so of the 20 hottest months have occured since 1998....
6 monthly records have been in the past 12 months...
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
What the gov't paid scientists won't admit is that CO2 is a TRAILING indicator, as evidenced by the Vostok Ice Core data. Basically, it shows that spikes in CO2 levels are always followed by a STEEP drop in global temperatures, going back about 500,000 years.
But I'll leave it to the Enviro-progs to tell me how this interpretation is wrong based on observations made using data obtained from only the past several decades.
They also forget to mention that warm periods are good, and that Ice Ages are bad.
They lack the "emperical data" to back up what every fifth grade science student can figure out on their own. But they are not the deniers, right? Great example of being educated beyond one's capacity to learn.
Never occured to you that C02 can be the dominant forcing or a feedback when the Milankovitch cycles are dominant?
Yep, you are clearly educated beyond your capacity to understand. You fit in perfectly here...
I'd be happy with it just wiping out Jew York Shitty.
Similar track to Sandy in 2012. You may get your wish yet.
Some of us ZH'ers live here
Have family here
Been through Sandy
It sucked
People died
Perhaps this one will turn right, maybe I'm the only one here that hopes so
Grew up in NYC area (Long Island). I remember a direct hit by Belle in mid 70's while parents were in Florida. Some storm. Went down to SC to help my dad after Hugo- unbelievable. In Miami after Andrew- blocks wiped clean. I still have family up and down East coast from SC to Maine. You have at least one here who wishes good luck and safety to you and yours. Pay attention and pick up everything flyable in the yard if it starts to come your way.
This ZHer is in NC.. about as East Coast as the East Coast gets if you catch my drift. Really hope this shit stays offshore.. cleaning up after these things is a nightmare.
Yeah, but Krugman's prostate shrinks to the size of a raisin jizzing over all the broken windows and the government money being spent to clean up after a storm.
Who da fuck comes up with these names... what happend to Jack or Jill...gheezee
The PC bed wetting thumb suckers.
In the Atlantic Basin over half the people live in countries that speak Spanish.
Oh, do these folks pay for the NWS? No, an english speaking country pays for that they are just free riders, Jack and Jill here we come
Remind me the last time a hurricane struck in the south Atlantic or along the Iberian peninsula.
Ez raciss wad you say!
Atlantic storms were named from lists creates by the national hurricane center. After running out of names, they are now named by the World Meteorological Organization.
Who pays the majority of the Useless UN's bills.. The point stands twirp..
"Tears toward the Bahamas!" - at 5 mph
who writes these Bloomturd headlines?
PS - it's going to stay offshore
Calm yourself down.
I'm waiting to hear Al Sharpton insist on some storms being given some of those 'unconventional' names currently favored by the African-American community. We'll never see a storm named Mohammed, of course, because drawing pictures of it would be Islamophobic.
My vote is for Laphreaqua.
(Mom must have been a Rick James fan.)
Hassam would be good.
Ben Shalom may even be better.
Wet Swan. Bring on the seasonal adjustments
With a little hope it wipes out the State of New York once and for all...
We don't need ISIS. We have people like you who would gleefully wipe out millions of Americans.
Oh but they don't think like you so they'te not *real* Americans.
Lunatic.
Sorry I should have said please....did I touch a nerve?
Dope.......
he's new.
I assure you he's not new.
YOU. NEW. SHHHHH!
http://www.zerohedge.com/users/mark-mywords
He's sensitive.
A bunch of the left hand side of the bell curve are like that.
Yeah, but if it was the south he'd be saying sayonara to all those redneck bitter clingers.
Shit goes right over you head, eh?
Welcome to the Hedge. Try not to get your panties in a wad next time.
BTW, I agree with BOR. A hit on JooYork would be outstanding.
With a little luck, your families entire gene pool will be wiped out. Hopefully slowly and extremely painfully.
Seek help.
He already has. He is in the proper place for help.
Where else is he going to read the suggestion that a flamethrower might be quite affective in the realization of his desire?
See. I am beyond help. So I just serve here to give help to others.
I come here for the occasional CLICK BAIT fotos. But I'm even 'newer' than the other guy so my opinion (on anything), by virtue of the gang rule Magna Carta, amounts to squat.
Actually, I come here to post a comment and then laugh at my own literary genius. It's kind of like admiring your own artwork after having signed your name in piss on a concrete wall. Picasso to you, Piss to everyone else.
Unless you really are a literary genius, gifted with a razor sharp wit, and can be completely absurd, reviewing your own comments here isn't much different than looking into the bowl after a dump.
Get that finger out of your ear! You don't know where that finger's been!
Another butthurt newb.
This is fight club.
If you cant take the heat, head back to the highly moderated CNBC for your daily dose of State programming.
Imogene Bailey? Wouldn't mind putting a hurting on that butt.
What heat exactly? He wants 20+ million to die...i think anyone with that line of thought should be eradicated from this earth.
Just the shitholes in NYC, LA, D.C., San Fran, Shitcago, Detroit, Seattle, Miami, etc.
If I've left anyone out then feel free to add your name to the list.
There are shit holes in every country, state, city, borough, town, and village. You name population centers for what reason? More shitholes there to kill? There are also 1000x more innocents. Can't we just eliminate anyone with a sub 120 IQ? Probably take care of a lot more problems that way.
With a little luck, your ability to write properly will be enhanced. And the possessive form of 'family' is...
Gramer Kop...
his genes... Every family sharing those common genes are not necessarily his family. More than 1 family shares those genes.
We had record rainfall two days ago along the Blue Ridge from the last storm, so the ground is soaked.
Could be major flooding in mountain areas where no one expects it.
Weather forecasters have a (deserved) bad rep concerning accuracy but they have been all over the board on this storm, whether it would even develop, where it would go, how strong it would get. Don't expect them to suddenly get their groove on now, it's going to go wherever it wants and be as strong as it wants. Should have a female name. ooh, did I say that out loud?
Sounds like it is going to hit at the wrong time of the month?
As to you substance regardging this one you are 100% correct. Yesterday it gained hurricane status and they didnt expect it to strengthen and it could hit Georgia to Iceland.
This morning I woke up and it was a Cat 3 and rising and is going to clobber my in laws place.
pods
Just in time for 16 feet of snow.
No connection.
The key is within the graphic that shows the 'STEERING WINDS'. I'd be looking within the area of stratospheric geoengineering and the HAARP status over CONUS and the Atlantic in order to deternine the track.
Those bozos who call themselves 'meteorologists' (they play them on the TV, you know) only report (READ THE SCRIPT that is given to them).
'KATRINA' and 'SANDY' come to mind, here.
Oh lookie, a HAARP whacka-doo...
Bozos? Look at your.... avatar
"Now this is just what we should avoid, and be careful not to restrain the liberty of the observer. Every one must consider the usage prevailing in his own country and the extent of his means; we should remember that one who is ordered to observe certain regulations does not effect half so much as one, who investigates according to his own judgement. Liberty should be respected everywhere; but especially in science should her spirit guide all our inquiries. By some very general indications they may be directed in such matters, that the general utility be promoted by the cooperation of all; only such restrictions should be made as are necessary to contribute to the interests of science, to promote the common welfare, by pro posing some rules and discussing them. By this means we may obtain a general method to be followed in making our observations and in publishing them."
ROYAL DUTCH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE SUGGESTIONS ON A UNIFORM SYSTEM OF METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS (1872)
ironically the author's name is ... Buys-Ballot !!! Anyway, The frontrunner to the International Meteorological Organization (IMO) here were all navy guys (military!) so no need to wonder where the funding is coming from. The IMO was morphed into the WMO, World Meteroloical Organization, which is basically the driver of the system that created the AGW debate:
http://www.wmo.int/pages/publications/bulletinarchive/archive/58_3_en/58...
WMO bulletin July 2009 A history of climate activities
----------------------------------------------------------
ALL roads lead to PARIS
" it's going to go wherever it wants and be as strong as it wants."
Some would suggest that it will go wherever the HAARP operator tells it to go.
Uh oh, you used HAARP, you'll have Flakey on your ass.
Like so many things these days we are beyond peak saturation.
Too true;)
Shemitah
Eevryday is Shemitah day.
If not, you can be sure you'll be reminded of it.
Jubilee year. Super Shemitah til next October.
So it's getting to be like Black Friday sales that last forever?
It must be a vast right wing conspiracy against Hilary or, it's Bush's fault or, if it hits your wife, it's your fault...
Back to killin' snakes...
Speaking of killin' snakes: Florida is organizing yet another python hunt in the Everglades. Mid-January to mid-February I think. A few years back one of Florida's senators participated. I wasn't sure which snake to root for.
Dustify congress.
Weather porn = weather hysteria = climate hysteria = "global warming" = exploding heads.
Putin's fault (cue the images of bloody & maimed innocent victims)
Be careful what you wish for.
Fuck hurricanes, I don't have time for that crap today. Of course, I don't live on the east coast either. LOL.
As "The Pope" rightly said, this is definitely, absolutely and without any shadow of doubt Putin's fault.
Russia must be bombed and Putin brought to heel for the bombs he's dropping in Syria which are causing abnormal weather patterns around the world. I mean, like, I'm told by the Pentagon that it's raining in London. That MUST be Putin's fault. There's no other explanation.
F O R W A R D --->>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
/s
It's only raining in London because it's not snowing. & that, of course, is because of global warming (also caused by Putin).
The silence here at Zero Hedge is deafening. The cognitive dissonance is making heads expolode (Miffed). Putin & Paris. LULZ
Here we go! The excessive TV hype! The weather idiots with TV shots of them being blown over in the driving storm.....stating the obvious. The local dumbshits in prone areas stating 'how it never happens here and I'm waiting it out' -- so they can be rescued. The endless mindless replay by the media on past hurricanes and the wanton damage done.....and Joaquin is following the same track!! The countless endless puff piece stories on power outages and someone's little pet fluffy not being taken for their favorite walk. The tiresome endless shots of street puddles and downed tree limbs. And, of course, the spinmeisters all a twitter about the coming age of global warming. And in the end, true to form, the storm will take a track out into the ocean and/or weaken considerable, at which point the mindless TV hypsters will tell us ' we dodged the BIG one!! Lucky us! .........did I mention the politicians of the states being impacted doing face-time on TV already pleading for Federal assistance? Sigh.
That's why I joined the cord cutters some 10 years ago. Turn that shit off.
I'm still waiting to see Jim Cantore catch a 2x4 to the head at 150 mph.
pods
Now that's some teevee I could enjoy.
Weather happens.
Weather Weapons.
Whether weapons or weather.
Let's see...most of the major news networks are on the east coast..a hurricane is heading their way..wonder what the lead story will be on the nightly news... wonder if anything else will be happening in the world today?
I see more paper records being destroyed.
Almost an identical track as Hurricane Sandy.
and Erin
http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/september-11-hurricane-erin-missed-new-york-city-20140911
As the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 were unfolding in New York, Washington, D.C. and near Shanksville, Pennsylvania, a hurricane was spinning off the Northeast coast.
Went to HD early this morning ...all generators sold ,sump pumps depleated but still a few around ....
Good luck. I went through Sandy and moved a year later. Still own a generator. Always smart to have one of those.
Oh boy...broken windows all around!!!
Bullish!
I think we should follow the Pope's weather forecasters more closely..they knew this was going to happen..so they planned their trip a week before this hurricane...well done!
"500 hundred days to avoid climate chaos"...
So Laurent Fabius was off by a couple weeks ?
No fatal hurricanes in US Since Katrina. That's why Anderson Cooper had to visit La. on tenth anniversary to remind us how bad the weather has gotten.
There was "Superstorm" Sandy, the worst "non-hurricane" to hit the east coast in a few decades. Non-hurricane my ass, the insurance companies lobbied hard for the term "superstorm" to get out of paying their claims. IIRC, though Katrina was wider and had higher winds, the storm surge was actually higher during Sandy. Fucked a lot of shit up big time, and caused some deaths. Like Katrina, they are still rebuilding.
Gonna be nothing
...Saint Joachim was considered a “forebearer of God”...
Suddenly the name of this hurricane makes sense to me...but hey, what do I know...I'm just a conspiracy theorist !
Sharknado V....get the cameras ready....
Hurricane? I think you mean a Krugman-jobs-creator storm.
Ala, Basitat's Things Seen and Things Unseen...
"Others predict it will hit the Eastern Seaboard, possibly near Washington."
What are the odds it will wash away all the filth and corruption?
I know wishful thinking, back to watching the Cramer reco's on twitter so I can make some money.
Hey where did all the reco's go?
You can watch it live here:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-62.66,21.79,482
Waaaaaaay cool.
Thanks, nice link.
Probably nothing. But warmer oceans makes another East Coast tidal surge (and/or Gulf Coast disaster) inevitable. It'll take out Manhatten, the Bronx and Staten Island too.
... again.
Just like a politician. Promises, promises.
And that's a reason to buy Home Depot shares? Geez.
This one is Geo-Engineered
Geo-Engineered? Straight through the path of where there are military exercises currently , and required that FTA warning of air trafic issues?
Need more carbon tax to be sent to the owners of the central banks. Will solve all weather problems.
/sarc
In other news, Hurricane Mohammed continues to bear down on Europe
Please please hit washington!!!
Optimum storm tracks: 1. Up the Hudson River, 2. Up the Potomac River, 3. Straight up the Delaware Bay ;0
4. Straight up the taxpayer wazoo.
We are reporting that hundreds of millions of people will be affected by this storm even though it is heading out to sea.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zd0p96miSK8
Oboy! We can count on FEMA showing up with a budget of 2 or 3 billion dollars and 2 or 3 truckloads of bottled water. Then, they're gone.
Mrs. Silencer is from New York, and she has memories of the tail end of Hurricanes sweeping through. Says they're pretty wild. Head to basement. Listen to the world rage outside...
We don't get hurricanes here in California. We do, however, have a lot of pregnant Mexicans, which in the long run is far worse.