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Mid-East Coup: As Russia Pounds Militant Targets, Iran Readies Ground Invasions While Saudis Panic
Back in June, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, Qasem Soleimaini, visited a town north of Latakia on the frontlines of Syria’s protracted civil war. Following that visit, he promised that Tehran and Damascus were set to unveil a new strategy that would “surprise the world.”
Just a little over a month later, Soleimani - in violation of a UN travel ban - visited Russia and held meetings with The Kremlin. The Pentagon now says those meetings were “very important” in accelerating the timetable for Russia’s involvement in Syria. The General allegedly made another visit to Moscow in September.
The timeline here is no coincidence. Iran has long provided covert and overt support to the Assad regime via financial transfers, logistical support from the Quds, and via the involvement of Hezbollah in the Assad government’s fight to regain control of the country.
As we’ve documented extensively over the past several weeks, what appears to have happened here is that Iran, unable to simply invade Syria in support of Assad (because doing so would obviously be a disaster in terms of preserving the optics around the P5+1 nuclear deal), turned to Moscow which has in the past used Russia’s Security Council veto to block the referral of the war in Syria to the Hague and which is a known ally of both Tehran and Damascus.
While it’s unclear exactly what the pitch was to Putin, Russia clearly saw an opportunity to advance The Kremlin’s geopolitical agenda at a key time in history. Moscow is keen to put on a brave face amid the most contentious standoff with the West since the Cold War (as a result of the conflict in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea) and amid the related effort to preserve Gazprom’s market share in Europe.
In short, Putin looks to have viewed this as the ultimate geopolitical win-win. That is, Russia gets to i) expand its influence in the Middle East in defiance of Washington and its allies, a move that also helps to protect Russian energy interests and preserves the Mediterranean port at Tartus, and ii) support its allies in Tehran and Damascus thus preserving the counterbalance to the US-Saudi-Qatar alliance.
Meanwhile, Iran gets to enjoy the support of the Russian military juggernaut on the way to protecting the delicate regional nexus that is the source of Tehran’s Mid-East influence. It is absolutely critical for Iran to keep Assad in power, as the loss of Syria to the West would effectively cut the supply line between Iran and Hezbollah.
The same dynamic is playing out in Iraq. That is, Iran is fighting ISIS via various Shiite militias just as it’s fighting the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen via the Shia Houthis. It is thus extremely significant that Baghdad has agreed to share intelligence with Syria and Russia, as that effectively means the Iran-backed Shiite militias battling for control of Iraq will enjoy the support of the Russian military.
What should be obvious here is that this is a coordinated plan.
The Kremlin has effectively agreed to bring the might of the Russian air force to bear on Assad’s opponents in Syria and on Sunni militants in Iraq in support of Iranian ground troops and because the US and its allies have failed so miserably in terms of fielding anti-Assad rebels who don't turn out to be extremists, Putin gets to pitch the whole thing as a "war on terror." It would be difficult to design a more elegant power play.
If you think that’s far-fetched, consider the following just out from Reuters:
Hundreds of Iranian troops have arrived in Syria in the last 10 days and will soon join government forces and their Lebanese Hezbollah allies in a major ground offensive backed by Russian air strikes, two Lebanese sources told Reuters.
"The (Russian) air strikes will in the near future be accompanied by ground advances by the Syrian army and its allies," said one of the sources familiar with political and military developments in the conflict.
"It is possible that the coming land operations will be focused in the Idlib and Hama countryside," the source added.
The two sources said the operation would be aimed at recapturing territory lost by President Bashar al-Assad's government to rebels.
It points to an emerging military alliance between Russia and Assad's other main allies - Iran and Hezbollah - focused on recapturing areas of northwestern Syria that were seized by insurgents in rapid advances earlier this year.
"The vanguard of Iranian ground forces began arriving in Syria: soldiers and officers specifically to participate in this battle. They are not advisors ... we mean hundreds with equipment and weapons. They will be followed by more," the second source said. Iraqis would also take part in the operation, the source said.
And then consider this, also just out (via Reuters):
The Russian Foreign Ministry said on Thursday it would consider any request from the Iraqi government to conduct air strikes against Islamic State inside Iraq, but said it had not yet received such an appeal, the RIA Novosti news agency reported.
It cited the foreign ministry as saying it would evaluate the "political and military" logic of such a move if a request was forthcoming.
Finally, to drive the point home and further confirm the veracity of the thesis outlined above, here’s Saudi Arabia panicking at the prospect that Russia’s presence is set to completely disrupt the Mid-East BOP (via Reuters, yet again):
Saudi Arabia, a leading foe of President Bashar al-Assad, demanded his ally Russia end its raids on Syria, saying the strikes had caused civilian casualties while failing to target the hardline Islamic State militants Moscow says it opposes.
In remarks at the United Nations in New York, a senior Saudi diplomat suggested both Russia and Assad's other main ally Iran could not claim to fight Islamic State "terrorism" at the same time as supporting the "terrorism" of the Syrian authorities.
Saudi ambassador Abdallah Al-Mouallimi expressed "profound concern regarding the military operations which
Russian forces have carried out in Homs and Hama today, places where ISIS forces are not present. These attacks led to a number of innocent victims. We demand it stop immediately and not recur."
"As for those countries that have claimed recently to join in the fight against ISIS terrorism, they can’t do that at the same time as they support the terrorism of the Syrian regime and its terrorist foreign allies like Hezbollah and the Quds Force and other terrorist sectarian groups," he added in comments broadcast by Saudi-owned al-Arabiya television.
ISIS is a common acronym for Islamic State, also known as ISIL. Lebanon's Hezbollah Shi'ite militia openly fights on behalf of Assad's government, and the Quds Force, part of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards, is also widely believed to be aiding Damascus.
It would be difficult to overstate the significance of what appears to be going on here. This is nothing short of a Middle Eastern coup, as Iran looks to displace Saudi Arabia as the regional power broker and as Russia looks to supplant the US as the superpower puppet master.
Do not expect Saudi Arabia and Israel to remain on the sidelines here.
If Russia ends up bolstering Iran's position in Syria (by expanding Hezbollah's influence and capabilities) and if the Russian air force effectively takes control of Iraq thus allowing Iran to exert a greater influence over the government in Baghdad, the fragile balance of power that has existed in the region will be turned on its head and in the event this plays out, one should not expect Washington, Riyadh, Jerusalem, and London to simply go gentle into that good night.
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If you check out the daily earthquake map, you'll see that somebody is really bombing the ME back to the dark ages:
http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/
Damn!
Gog and Magog in Death Match III. Starring Mushroom Cloud and Zombie Apocalypse.
I ponder whether the Tel Aviv Zionists will attack Damascus against the defending Russian air force? It only leads to speculation but I have to think that Anglo-Zionist reign of terror is nearing its terminus. This also goes for the Saudi fascists who must be worried that they can't buy Russia or pull any shit without getting more deeply involved. I often think about a short, sharp, shock to the House of Saud will collapse the house of cards for the entire Anglo-Zionist empire.
Putin done killed all the Zios in the motherland?
Check out our New Obama Video Game
Sling BS, violate the bill of rights, dodge the birth certificate and more
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For those who consider voting for Carly Fiorina:
Carly Fiorina calls for WW3: Enforce no-fly zone over Syria & take down Russian jets if needed! (short video)
Fox News headline "Russian Aggression" is surreal, btw.
Every fucking candidate on both sides are total lunatics.
America bomb brown people = evil, bad, cruel racist
Putin bomb brown people = fuck brown people
Brown people can be good or bad, fuckface..... sheesh.
"Remember... er... Russian jets have been, basically, conducting dangerous, and unpredictable, maneouvers areound our waters, our borders and our territory"...
Aww... y u no like shoe on the other foot?... Go pound, Carly, you're giving Americans a bad name. Like, tragically, most Americans do.
US illegally bombs ISIS in Syria-no big deal. Britain, Australia and France join in-no big deal. Russia comes in legally-Big Deal. The hypocrisy here is astonishing.
"The Putinator has an answer for every dirty trick the west throws at him."
fiorina has done a pretty good job taking down lucent and hp
Morally, financially, spiritually and now militarily bankrupt; USSA is coming down in a pile of stinking hubris. As with the collapse of the USSR, don't be surprised when bits of Merca begin to splinter and disintegrate.
Onward to the tsunami of homecoming Saudi Mercan petroscrip dollahs washing US all to hyperinflationary hell!
"Nobody should be surprised that Putin has decided to go full-on neocon. It didn’t take me much time in Russia to realize that Putin’s alleged opposition to the arrogance and military bullying of the Bush regime wasn’t really based on any concern for national sovereignty, something undeniable by 2014, nor was it based on any principled opposition to imperialism and militarism. Putin and his fans, fair-weather or otherwise, were angry that the US was able to engage in such treachery while they were not. We have seen how any criticism of militarism, war, or imperialism flies right out the window when it’s happening under the tricolor.
Back in the days of the Iraq insurgency, many of us who opposed it believed it would lead to some sort of collapse- the empire would stretch itself too thin, sacrificing living standards on the home front to sustain a never-ending war. I remember people predicting that Bush would invade Iran after reelection in 2004. Some predictions were even more alarmist, saying that Bush would launch an invasion of Iran in 2004 so that he could call off the elections. Yeah, that was a negatory on both of those predictions, but there is some truth to the idea that the wars cost America big time not simply in money, but in living standards.
Of course America had a lot longer to fall, and while there are grave concerns facing American workers today, on paper at least, the economy is growing. Not so in Russia. At no time has Russia’s post-Soviet economy seriously rivaled that of the US, nor of most European countries. Even some former Soviet republics and Eastern Bloc nations can boast higher living standards than Russia or at least most Russians,and inflows of Russian immigrants testify to that. Even if things are roughly the same on an economic level, the greater degree of freedom seems to seal the deal.
This is why Putin’s latest military adventure is so insane. Russian military spending is out of control and what gains it can possibly obtain cannot possibly make up for this. The inferiority complex and obsession over the idea of being a superpower are increasingly driving the little president to punch above his weight, particularly as the Russian economy continues to decline, reversing what gains Putin could (somewhat spuriously) claim in the mid-2000’s. While it appears that the Kremlin is putting its war in Ukraine on hold for the moment, it will still have to pay to prop up its pseudo-states in the Donbas, just as it pays to prop up Transnistria, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia.
It was speculated that Putin’s plan was to set up the possibility of a “reset” at the recent UNGA gathering, but this is unlikely. Russia most likely isn’t able to really take the fight to ISIS in any decisive way, at least with the resources they have in country now. At best they can prop-up Assad and perhaps prevent a bloody end for him and his family, but this doesn’t really help Putin that much. At best he’ll gain some PR points at home with the vatniks, but Russian history shows that the population does not in fact endure indefinitely for the sake of its leaders. Go back in time to 1920 and ask Nicholas II if you don’t believe me. Oh wait, even if you could travel back in time to that year, you wouldn’t be able to ask Tsar Nicky because he was dead. Not so smart now, are you, time traveler?
Once again the supposedly brilliant strategist who always outfoxes the West has gone and stuck his dick in an anthill for what appear to be, at best, really naive motives. Russia may soon go from steady decline into free fall. That’s what happens when you write checks your army and economy can’t cash."
What a one eyed load of crap . Go Putin -the Worlds last great hope.
And they tell me that travel between alternative universes is impossible!
Your cut and paste skills have improved remarkably...
Here's the website this drivel came from... http://nobsrussia.com/2015/10/01/imperial-hubris/
And this is the author's facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/Nobsrussia
Standard Disclaimer: Give that Latvian a potato.
That's one person's view of Russian affairs. An American who lives in Russia as it happens.
There are millions of people in this world and many of them have more positive views judging from Putin's domestic popularity.
So what's your point of selectively copy/pasting this guy's views if not to spread anti-Putin propaganda?
When a zombie apocalypse starts, Vladimir Putin doesn't try to survive. The zombies do.
So it seems the New World Order is going to be something else than everybody here expected...
formadesika3 What we're dealing with here is what we'll be dealing with continually with the rogue Iranians -- they will be trying at every opportunity to violate UN management of the nuclear deal just as they are violating the UN travel ban. Senator McCain has been warning about this.
And how many UN mandates has Israel ignored for its own benefit?
I can't say I am a fan of either country but please, at least be unbiased or use logic with your argument.
Senator McCain is a war pig and a lackey of Israel, enough said,.
McCain ''They are bombing our terrorists''!!!!!!!!!!
"We can't have Assad who was voted in by 50 percent of Syrians, fighting our terrorist to save his country''
>>>>>>
America is a sick country supporting terrorists all over
>>>>>>>>>>>
Netanyahu makes Hitler look like a choir boy.
Israel ZioNazis are committing slow genocide and theft of land for years against people that have nothing more than stones to fight back with.
Isreal considers all NON Jews to be their servants and cattle. (read theis Talmud)
Israel specifically targets women and chldren and hospitals using F-16s , cluster bombs, white phosphorous.
Israelis laughed and partied last year while children were being butchered by their cowardly IDF goons.
Israel spits on Christians and calls them ''useful idots'' behind their back.
Have Americans fallen so low to support and fund these psychopaths??
McCain ''They are bombing our terrorists''!!!!!!!!!!
"We can't have Assad who was voted in by 50 percent of Syrians, fighting our terrorist to save his country''
>>>>>>
America is a sick country supporting terrorists all over
>>>>>>>>>>>
Netanyahu makes Hitler look like a choir boy.
Israel ZioNazis are committing slow genocide and theft of land for years against people that have nothing more than stones to fight back with.
Isreal considers all NON Jews to be their servants and cattle. (read theis Talmud)
Israel specifically targets women and chldren and hospitals using F-16s , cluster bombs, white phosphorous.
Israelis laughed and partied last year while children were being butchered by their cowardly IDF goons.
Israel spits on Christians and calls them ''useful idots'' behind their back.
Have Americans fallen so low to support and fund these psychopaths??
Has now the Chinese and Russian era begun ?
I think given its history Russia deserves to be a global leader with China, not USA also because of USA's history. Still USA demands a global leadership role. That is like a serial killer demanding to be elected president or vice-president.
"I dont get it; If russians want to kill arabs, how does this affect me in my remote little corner of america?"
It doesn't directly involve you Dave, but it does indirectly. Indirecty in that you are presumably a tax payer, and therefore a defacto supporter of the US government. This makes you a Zio slave, Dave since your tax dollars are used to fight Jewish wars in the ME. Russia is raising the stakes in this particular Jewish war so you can expect the US to up the ante and come down on you the lowly peon for the goods/manpower to do just that.
That's how it affects you.
70 years of PAx Americana hubris now hoisted on its own petard.
Tipping times and new "bottom lines"...
Iran is trying to not lose the strategic linkages it has already. And of course it would try to capitalise, if it can maintain those linkages. But that is a big if, and one the Jews will certainly try to derail.
I have been half expecting an attack on South Lebanon, spilling over into Damascus. For Israel that is one way to bring the issue of Hezbollah and Iran to a head, and by way of implication blacken Russia's role in helping bring Iranian intervention to within spitting distance of the Golan in order to stage an attack on Israel, etc. So pre-emption is one way of taking he initiative. And take note that the Arab league and Saudis were strongly supportive of the last IDF attack on South Lebanon.
From Wikipedia's 2006 war article:
It's almost the same polarization now, with the possible exception of Iraq's Govt and PA. The common factor, then and now was? ... yup ... the desire to hinder and reverse Iranian strategic influence.
I think there is little chance of Russia gaining the ascendancy in Iraq, as the Iraqi air force is now structured around some very capable new US supplied F-16 squadrons, and the Central Govt only exists still due to Western intervention and its air cover and forces support and training. Western airpower is already abundantly present in Iraq. It is not clear Iran's influence on Iraq will grow from here. There may be many Shites in Iraq, but they are a separate state with their own particular security interests and needs as well.
There is another option here, the US and UK and EU woo Iran and play Putin at his own game. And thus they require Israel to make their peace with Iranian-backed militias and stay out out of Lebanon and Syria, entirely.
Which is all Hezbollah originally wanted.
At which point ISIS gets smashed by US and allied air power, with the Iranians and Syrians doing the business on the ground with RuAF close air support to assist.
But, that's the easy part of this, a frank deal still has to be made in advance, for a prompt progressive withdrawal of all foreign combat forces from Syria, bar none, after the Syrian conflict is over, and that's where the rubber meets the road here.
Basically everyone's military has to bug-out and go away.
If the Russians and Iranians wanted to stay at that point that would in fact lead to a general regional war.
But then we are still left with the Kurds, who are then heavily armed, and still want to carve up parts of Syria, Turkey, Iraq and Iran, to make another state. Just like ISIS did.
Well, if the US then has good relations with Iraq, Turkey and Iran, the Kurds can also be put back in their box, and probably without more war.
But can Russian do the same here?
I don't see how.
So Iran may not see this as a 'nexus', as much it sees an opportunity to preserve Assad, and Hezbollah, and as a strong deterrent to the IDF.
Which it will probably need, btw.
And the Russians can not deter the IDF at all ... nor the Saudis.
But the US and Allied forces actually do have the ability to pull them up short, and make them all play nice.
And that is what Iran may see as more valuable to its broader medium-term interests.
Whistling in the graveyard, Element? I hope you've got your rabbit's foot at the ready.
All I can say about that option is WOOHOO. Please email me when that happens in case I'm in a coma or deceased.
I wonder if Putin and Netanyahoo discussed that in their recent meeting in Moscow? If they did who do you think was the discusee and who was the discusor?
What did you have for breakfast this morning? A marijuana omelette.
One often hears a comparison of the US to the ancient Roman Empire. I would refine that a bit and compare the US to Julius Caesar.
On my new watch it is always the Ides of March and the US is forever climbing the steps to the Senate with his dear allies and friends.
Oh, look, here comes Brutus now.
And my dear friend, if I may say this, you don't look attractive at all with little beads of perspiration on your forehead. Perhaps you should try a new foundation.
Ah, cmon. You know Element, he has no theories but he has lotsa hypothesis.
I see that the USA is reporting a whole bunch of LIES and mistruths about Russian attacks on ISIS. Even using footage from 2012 in Iraq passing it off as happened yesterday.
Russia Today calls them on it everyday.
We ge RT here 24/7 on our cable and SAT systems. They continue to destroy CNN and FOX
The ZIO NeoCON cancer has finally metastasised.
Radical surgery is the only hope.
Is it me, or is Washington's iceberg of BS now coming into full view? Looking at BTL comments everywhere there seems to be a full consensus that US is full of crap on this one. Even posters on various sites who previously passed their days repeatedly charging "putinbot" windmills now seem also sick of this unbearable level of BS that is being served up in the media. I sense a change.
According to my professor Putin is a white man and as far as can be ascertained has never been accused of of flagrant rampant faggotry fucking fat faggot white boys in orgies in bathhouses. sThat's all I need to know.
US Mideast policy image
On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a blistering critique of US foreign policy to the UN General Assembly. On Tuesday, Barack Obama shoved a knife in Putin’s back.
This is from Reuters: “France will discuss with its partners in the coming days a proposal by Turkey and members of the Syrian opposition for a no-fly zone in northern Syria, French President Francois Hollande said on Monday… French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius “in the coming days will look at what the demarcation would be, how this zone could be secured and what our partners think,” Hollande told reporters on the sidelines of the annual United Nations General Assembly… Hollande said such a proposal could eventually be rubber-stamped with a U.N. Security Council resolution that “would give international legitimacy to what’s happening in this zone.”…(France, partners to discuss northern Syria ‘safe zone’: Hollande, Reuters)
The real reason the no-fly zone issue has resurfaced is because it was one of the concessions Obama made to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for the use of Incirlik airbase. Washington has kept the terms of that deal secret, but Hollande has let the cat out of the bag.
The significance of the Reuters article cannot be overstated. It suggests that there was a quid pro quo for the use of Incirlik, and that Turkey’s demands were accepted. Why is that important? Because Turkey had three demands: 1–Safe zones in north Syria (which means that Turkey would basically annex a good portion of Syrian sovereign territory.) 2–A no-fly zone (which would allow either Turkish troops, US Special Forces or US-backed jihadi militants to conduct their military operations with the support of US air cover.) 3–A commitment from the US that it will help Turkey remove Assad. Incirlik changes everything. US bombers, drones and fighters can enter Syrian airspace in just 15 minutes instead of 3 to 4 hours from Bahrain. That means more sorties, more surveillance drones, and more air-cover for US-backed militias and Special Forces on the ground. It means the US can impose a de facto no-fly zone over most of Syria that will expose and weaken Syrian forces tipping the odds decisively in favor of Obama’s jihadi army.
Incirlik is a game-changer, the cornerstone of US policy in Syria. With access to Incirlik, victory is within Washington’s reach. That’s how important Incirlik is. And that’s why the normally-cautious Putin decided to deploy his warplanes, troops and weaponry so soon after the Incirlik deal was signed. He could see the handwriting on the wall. He knew he had to either act fast and turn the tide or accept the fact that the US and Turkey were going to topple Assad sometime after Turkey’s snap elections on November 1. That was his timeline for action. So he did the right thing and joined the fighting. http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/10/01/putins-blitz-leaves-washington-ra...