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The Farce Is Complete: Stocks Soar Most In 4 Years As US Job Market Disintegrates
We suspect more than a few traders will need this tonight...
First things first, we have this...
Chinese stocks (trading in US) rose 6.5% today - the biggest day since May 2010:
And this -Today saw an epic squeeze of shorts - "most shorted" surged 5% off the opening lows which is the largest swing we could find on record
And finally this: Today was the biggest intraday reversal higher in The Dow since 2011
Thanks to this...
spoofer in eMini using a order size of 584 $ES_F $SPY
— Eric Scott Hunsader (@nanexllc) October 2, 2015
With cash indices all ramped into green for the day:
But there was only one thing driving US equities today... USDJPY, which got the momo going:
So 120 will be used to launch the 3:30pm ramp
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 2, 2015
SPX would already be above 2000 if payrolls were negative
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 2, 2015
And a collapse in VIX finished it off:
And US equities (except Small Caps) were ramped all the way into the green for the week, even Trannies
But credit was not buying it at the end:
Away from the silliness in stocks, everything else was 'silly' too:
Treasuries soared at the payrolls print with yields collapsing and flattening across the curve... before Europe closed and the Treasury selling was unleashed...
But remained lower on the week:
The USD was crushed lower after payrolls but bid back to the moon alice after Europe closed:
Commodities were very mixed on the week but industrials soared later in the day after precious metals exploded on payrolls data:
But Silver (up 6%) was the big winner from Payrolls:
And here is crude on the week... testing and failing at the week's close...ramping today onthe rig count dcline after tumbling after payrolls
The bottom line - The Pure-Play QE Trade is back on... but be careful what you wish for because of reflexivity...
Rate Hike Odds vs. What Determines Rate Hike Odds pic.twitter.com/qjOsJoJMx3
— Not Jim Cramer (@Not_Jim_Cramer) October 2, 2015
Charts: Bloomberg
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Central banks are now the prime investors with unlimited electronic funds.
Thanks for the meditation video Tyler. After watching my leveraged bear ETFs through the day, I needed a laugh after screaming like a maniac the last 1,5 hours...
zirp forever moar.
Face it...
economic activity can cool down
to Zero degrees Kelvin...
and stocks will still be bid up
because of the bankers, their state apparatus and their machines.
“There are no markets anymore, just interventions.”
-Chris Powell, GATA
http://www.gata.org/node/6242
Let's also face the fact that in this era a good economy for the working and middle class does not correlate well with high stock prices.
..or maximum banker and corporate bonuses as well as a nanny-state government.
Squeeze the shorts, and suck in some more sheeple.....The Chosenites tend their flocks well.
Well, if this doesn't make the natives restless, then they are no longer natives....they've accepted slavery.
Sometimes The Dragon Wins. (Sucks)
I tried to avoid this. I didn't want to be involved in your world any longer. I was honestly fed up with you people and your rotting rubbish heap of a world.
In a word, I was exhausted from my fruitless exertions, unfortunately.
But I've changed my mind because, well, this show you put on today is pitiful. a farce should be funny, but this one hasn't made me laugh even once.
"What I thought I'd do was I'd pretend I was one of those deaf mutes."
I do think that there's's more Time and Price to the Downside for the S&P500.
1987 lasted 61 trading days, 2011 took 66 trading days. Currently, 2015 takes 56 trading days.
Price also suggests a Lower Low will be seen in OCT: specific dates are OCT 8-10, OCT 16-19 and OCT 29-NOV 1 to expect a short term change in Trend.
http://tripstrading.com/2015/10/03/sp500-1987-vs-2011-vs-2015-pattern-of...
What difference does it make?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfTfsWhZi5E
Published on Feb 25, 2015The first episode of BestEvidence goes to the root of what’s happening to American jobs.
It examines the U.S. labor force participation rate going back to the first days of the Eisenhouser Administration (January 1953). After the rate stabilizes in the early 1960s, three distinct periods of time are clear by inspection.
For each period, BestEvidence breaks down the rate into its constituent parts—the labor force itself and the working age population from which it’s drawn (see below)—and looks at their respective changes.
The third and current period is a bloodbath.
BestEvidence discovers and presents here a stunning inverse correlation between the labor force participation rate and the U.S. monetary base starting in October 2008—exactly when the labor force participation rate entered a swan dive and the monetary base exploded.
This is no accident.
The episode concludes with a few words on the direction of BestEvidence, as well as the show's format.
=========
Ben Bernanke's Sovereign Deceptionhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmPUKy-3OfY
==========
Fed Audit Shocker: They Come from Planet Kleptohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jt377DV2BKs
Ben Bernanke has lied to congress on numerous occasions as well as helped bankers/financiers commit treason.
If he is not executed well shit goes south, he will be one the first to be hunted.
I know of at least two private islands to take as part of that search.
The middle cannot hold much longer, neither can the supply lines.
Correct, and those stocks will in fact be useless because of what they are priced in.
PPT did it's thing big time today or it would have been a massacre.
But if we get another blackish Monday then today will just be a highly manufactured dead-cat bounce.
I do think that there's's more Time and Price to the Downside for the S&P500.
1987 lasted 61 trading days, 2011 took 66 trading days. Currently, 2015 takes 56 trading days.
Price also suggests a Lower Low will be seen in OCT: specific dates are OCT 8-10, OCT 16-19 and OCT 29-NOV 1 to expect a short term change in Trend.
http://tripstrading.com/2015/10/03/sp500-1987-vs-2011-vs-2015-pattern-of...
I feel like a Road Grader ran over me today. That Video works. I am calm and will enjoy my wine tonight instead of the reverse.
*hushed, whispered tone*
.....Fu-u-u-ck Tha-a-a-a-at......
Yes sir ..., good things started happening during the day.
I don't know what they were, but they must have been great!
No doubt. Man's abilities are boundless! The Titanic is unsinkable...oh wait. We can build a city on sinking land where storms flood the swampland every single year, call it New Orleans...oh wait (what did the native americans say about that...) Forget napalm!
"I love the smell of nuclear annihilalation in the morning" ...
15,695 nuclear weapons (estimated but top secret-useless statistic?) - it only takes a few dozen to completely change the planet (for the worse apparently- will it help reverse the so called global warming statistics? Carbon Dioxide is loved by trees- which we cut down with reckless abandon- ist that the reason for CO2 increases- either way higher numbers is better for the green stuff)
Lets start airstrikes from 5 of the nine nuclear powers, and support differing opinions of what is required, because well...its ALL GOOD TODAY! I don't know how they get so much done so brilliantly. Lets play live chess with the overpopulated plant, they are just useless eaters anyway. PRINT SILVER! PRINT GOLD! (un-named for his sake, he is trying to fix it- THE "Chief, Taxing Divison" of a state in the US stated -paraphrased slightly- We are incompetent, we can't get our act together, we will not have it fixed by year end...regarding tens of thousands of incorrect letters sent to businesses and residents of this unnamed state. The letters, although incorrect, will continue, at least through the next quarter, and probably to the year end. This is the second year this happened, resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars the state says taxpayers owe, but they dont.
Aren't loans and such based on that, budgets of... well ALL IS WELL IN THE WORLD (AT LEAST THE SUN IS SHINING)
Who has nukes:
Russia
United States
France
China
United Kingdom
Pakistan
India
Israel
North Korea (If they can get bombardment figured out, what about those with more money and ability? - are we sure it is only nine countries? How?
HOW WILL MANKIND POSSIBLY MANAGE THIS ISSUE? A COMPUTER HAS TAKEN OVER A SYSTEM AND THEY CAN'T STOP IT (taxing issue above, but this is in every part of government (the best that money can buy), and coming to every single alphabet letter agency in every part of the USA at Federal and State levels. GOD HELP US ALL, WE NEED IT!!
You are overthinking this bigtime. STOP.
Only one rule applies. When fraud is the status quo, possession is the law.
get your tribe in order.
Why this is the worst recovery in US history...(and with today's job revisions, the US hasn't created a single (net new) full time job since July 2007 while the US population has increased by 20 million).
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3538366-u-s-economic-recoveries-in-perspective-and-why-this-is-the-worst
And....
Despite $400 billion in 2015 "stimulus" the US (and global) economy is slowing and heading for recession.
When Congress raises the debt ceiling in December...all the "stimulus" of spending above and beyond tax revenue since May absent dollars collected for this spending will need to be resolved.
Who's been buying and who will buy this time?
Why the Fed's likely answer to extend and pretend is NIRP!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3548606-todays-stimulus-and-who-will-pay-tomorrows-bills
$400 Billions doesn't buy Hamptons real estate like it used to...and the private jets and don't forget the bribery...oops political donation.
$400 billion conservatively levered in today's market a 100x's could have some impact...
oh you mean practicing your first amendment right?
god bless the united rich
The blood letting never really stops, it is now increasing and will soon enough get to the right people.
Just wait until the really smart (presently still employed) engineers and scientists start losing their jobs and fear for their lives or that of their children...
Remember, it was in fact German scientists that gave us the bomb.
If only I had a penny every time they promised me the farce was complete...
it's a recovery
it NEVER Gets old....
Just BELIEVE it Bitches...
The recovery will continue until morale improves.
So, is this "lift off?" ... or does it get "robuster?"
gafaw ... gafaw ... gafaw ....
Omaha • ConAgra will cut about 1,500 jobs, or approximately 30 percent of its global, office-based workforce, and move its headquarters to Chicago from Omaha, Nebraska, the company said Thursday.
http://www.sltrib.com/home/3013854-155/conagra-cuts-1500-jobs-moving-hq
Double bottom on SPY. Buy with both fkn hands!
lol. Double bottoms are WEAK lows.
Or kinky comfort $
+1
This is the type of SPY action that could well continue Monday.
Hiralious!
WTF!! 60 pts of positive movement on shit NFP data (it's fake and it's still shit)???
crazy as fuck buying/spoofing in e-mini futs. BOJ going bonkers.
let's see the CBs *real* balance sheets. they must own everything at this point.
this shit show has to end at some point.
I DONT EVEN KNOW WHERE TO FUCKING BEGIN AFTER SUCH A FARCE OF A DAY LIKE TODAY WAS.
WORST JOBS REPORT THAT I CAN REMEMBER, AND NOT ONLY DO STAWKS TURN AROUND NEARLY 500 PTS INTRADAY, BUT NOW I NEED TO FUCKING LISTEN TO THIS JACKASS MUSLIM OBAMA SPEAK ON TV.
THERE IS ONLY ONE SOLUTION AND ONE SOLUTION LEFT.
NUKE MANHATTAN AND NUKE LONDON, 2 OF THE MOST CRIMINAL PLACES ON THE FUCKING EARTH. FUCKING SCUMBAGS.
AT LEAST CHINA ADMITS THEY RIG THERE ''MARKETS'' THE U.S PRETENDS AS IF THESE ARE REAL MOVES BY ''INVESTORS''. MAKES ME WANT TO PUKE
take your emotions out of play. it will help you trade.
was thinkin thismarketisrigged was pretty chilled today, only 4 on the "fucking" count
lol havent traded in years, not do i own any stawks.
why would i, this is the biggest farce in the world. i mean seriously, how can someone even trade? trade on what? whenever someones tries to use charts or economic news, it means shit.
just look at today. worst jobs report in a while, and yet what the fuck happens? the ''market'' has its biggest intraday reversal in 4 years. i mean serious,y give me a fucking reason why?
its not because ''investors'' decided to buy going into the weekend, its because the fucking ppt is always there to make sure the banksters do not lose there shirts on a daily basis.
these ppl need to be silenced once and for all.
"just look at today. worst jobs report in a while, and yet what the fuck happens? the ''market'' has its biggest intraday reversal in 4 years. i mean serious,y give me a fucking reason why?"
.... shorters were taken out back to the wood-shed, they had it coming
short skirts and high heels, they had it coming.
then do something about it . . . .
thismarketisrigged -> I feel your fucking rage with the machine.
US is not about the people anymore, we are scum parasites to the banking elite. They are completely disconnected from us. What they are connected to is free money from the Fed, insider information on JPYUSD moves, and no fucking risk, they can inside trade with zero risk. When news is bad they get more free money. They roaring laugh at income inequality, and sing "we're in the money" when layoffs exceed 5000 for the day. If a banker gets a conscience for more than 1 second he is either nail gunned or takes diving lessons from the roof. The media feeds the public morphine, they feel no pain, as their taxes go up, jobs go down, standard life decreases, or the ignition switch in the car kills them.
Once you realize it's about free money, you may not feel better, but it may explain source of the rage.
bought glencorp at a 1.09, i can't help i'm happy at 1.51.
Any way to point Joaquin in the right direction?
My post at 10:06 this morn" best Black Friday Eva! Until 3:30"
The softball questions from the "media" was almost as pathetic as the answers. And then at the end of the theatre shit show Obama goes and hugs the gut. Forming public opinion is an art.
I'm all in, next stop new highs!!
Better hop on..., the train is leaving the station!!!
;-)
fake ass manipulated fucking Fraud Markets....
hope u all r "proud to be an american"...
now run out and buy that new yacht or Bentley...
cause this economy is rocking....
DEATH TO THE MONEYCHANGERS.
Predictable. I was actually surprised futures were down this morning after the bad reports came out since the Fed gets cover to continue getting paid to do nothing until they ramp QE4.
Same here. Had the employment data been positive futures would have dived as Fed more likely to stick to their guns on rate normalisation.
that actually gave me a chuckle. not the futures direction but that last part.... classic.
I was surprised at where the market opened as well. Everyone and their dog should have known the report would be weak.
We did see that bizarre kind of action a couple times before when QE was still going on. Cover shorts and go long at 1900 was the play and worked well. Re-shorting after the run didn't work out so well, everyone must have had visions of money drops clouding their judgement and were willing to stay long over the weekend.
This is a useful video. Fuck that.
The Traders Dictionary:
Farce = That thing that occurs when central bank goading becomes epic.
“Where the Shorts Are” from “Where the Boys Are ” by Connie Francis
{A mean-reversion machine manifesto}
Where the shorts are, buy-stops wait for me
Won’t leave a trace, their gains erased
Firearms won’t help, unfortunately
Where new shorts are, my best spoofs will be
They’re hunkered around the next pivot down
But I know they’re not lookin' for me
In the crowd of a million quotes they won’t know which one’s mine
I’ll make price climb to the highest steeple and build myself a shrine
Till they fold ‘em, I'll wait patiently
Where the shorts are, where the shorts are
Where their stops are, profits wait for me
Till they fold ‘em , I’ll wait …
Very apt KCS. Today's market reminded me of the classic Paul Tudor Jones 'Trader' vid.
The main point I took from that was it's shorts that fuel these rallies. They read the headlines, pick where they want to be short, and enter.
Only to be hit by a steamroller......
Probably only 1/2 shorts, the rest were longs continuing from when they bought, as indicated by volume spikes on short-term charts early in the week.
Every one has a perspective, it seems 3 main ones here: 1) angry approach; 2) "I'm done with this" by a few posters below. 3) My purely non-personal technical approach, admittedly culled from 4 years of trading. I'm convinced there's no conspiracy to ramp bad data to piss off ZH-ers, instead it's continued mean-reversion that's dominated for 7-8 years, impersonal and largely automated, and invite all to read my detailed, second reply in today's earlier "VIX Fat Finger" thread.
Next week's battle will be for those re-shorting at the 20 Daily Moving Averages vs. perma-longs, like pension funds, trying to push back to mid-Sept levels. The reason it confounds is that data never matters unless extreme (today's didn't qualify, within 70k standard error), they're using moving targets, MAs, with envelopes equidistant above/below to sawtooth about, flipping at envelope extremes back to central MAs. Competing firms means it's never precise and of course hard to trade, but their general tactic seems to me unmistakable.
I think it more likely we get turned back within a month to new lows, but no one can forecast it far in advance, as each day presents a new technical data point that, if strong enough, makes a full envelope trek possible, raises the MA bounce point, etc., which is why I'm in cash at every day's end. I know you trade, so good luck.
Thanks for your analysis KCS, always interested in your obsevations, Likewise, I'm normally in cash at the end of the day, only exceptions being the odd TRIN buy or sell at cash market close.
No real expectations for next week 'cept to note market sentment remains short-term bearish so I expect more shorting to drive markets even higher, at least Sunday night LOL., and China depending!
I've experienced the emotions on here you mention. It's their pain I refer to re shorts driving the market higher.
Good to hear you remain unbiased. Good luck with your trading too. Hoping to become a better trader too.
Covered short TNA calls this morning (thank God) for a few pennies, and picked up a boat load of the 67 calls three weeks out dirt cheap. Sold 62 and 63 strikes short going into the close against 1/3 of my longs (which are all over the place in mid to high 60's). So in other words...expecting this rally to continue a bit...plan to bleed out short calls with each move higher. Still have some long calls up in the 70's range from previous spreads if they want to keep up the march higher.
Always have to take advantage of these drastic moves in one direction or the other to pick up hedges on the cheap...even if they never materialize, all it takes is one fucked up day and they pay for themselves thousands of times over.
GL guys
Well-played, JMF, nice to see enough volatility for you to work, unlike early this year. As you know, I don't trade via advance forecast, but if pressed I'd have to agree with you, I think the battle I noted above could tip temporarily toward the bulls, as 8-year permabulls come back in strong, but it's precisely their unwinding after getting back long that will provide the final downside stops to take us lower. Don't know if you've seen monthly charts lately, but it's looking like a prlonged bear could be tripped soon unless they really get busy. Biggest inflection point in a decade, IMO.
Amazing. I JUST returned from Fort Lauderdale today. Thousands of giant yachts clogging all the docks. I wonder if they ever move them around.
We won't see any meaningful decline in these 'markets' until something happens that makes 9-11 look like nothing.
SERIOUSLY WHEN IS IT GOING TO END? I was hoping to for something to happen between Sept. 18-29. Shemitah year anyone??? BUT NOTHING SO FAR. I'm disappointed. I want off this ride. I can't stand the lies that are pushed down as truth anymore because I know better. Something PLEASE fucking crack already.
Exactly. Stuff is cracking, it is just not visible yet. Earnings are cracking, pension funding is cracking, insurance companies are cracking, savers are cracking, commodities are cracking, China/Emerging markets are cracking, Japan is cracking and the debt keeps building. We all know it can't be paid back, so it either defaults (deflationary) or the government prints money to bail it all out (inflationary). Basically, everything is overvalued unless the government monetizes the whole thing and validates asset prices which will destroy the average guy with little in the way of assets and a lot to lose from inflation. But, as Bernanke wrote in his paper, "Deflation, making sure it doesn't happen here." First whiff of deflation and the Fed starts printing away to buy up more bad debt.
So, my bet is the little guy takes it in the rear. That is how it always works.
Let's see what happens when millions of Americans can't afford anything for the Holidays.
Black Friday may be black this year for other reasons that have little to do with bargains. For me and mine, we're going to bolt the doors, darken the lights, pop in Mad Max Fury road, crank up the volume and suck down some adult smoothies.
That is coming for sure! I have no doubt in my mind that retailers will be CRUSHED this year. Most Americans are simply getting by these days and that is about it.
when something is preordained and you understand that, more time is a blessing.
more time to stack metals.
more time to trade fiat shit-wipe dollars for real assets.
more time to gird your psychological loins.
and more time to go out into the fake-ass USSA while it's still normal and enjoy simple things like a dinner out, a fully stocked costco or grocery store, a walk through the park, etc.
By November Macy's will be excepting EBT, THe Morg will insist they be reloaded every Friday. It's for the Chilins
This is why the dollar selloff is coming. No cred left
ZH, No NEED to complain, right?
You knew that the global economy was going to disintegrate.
OK, now there is a COMPLETE DISCONNECT between Mainstream USA and Wall Street.
The bankers are living in Money Paradise, while Americans collect unemployment. Or nothing.
And YES - the Fed is directly responsible for this!
Earnings season should take some of the wind out of the sails, unless bad earnings are good for stocks? I just don't know anymore.
NEWSFLASH- EARNINGS HAVE NOT MATTERED SINCE THE FINANCIAL CRISIS.
ONLY THINGS THAT MATTER TO THE STAWK ''MARKET'' IS THE USD/JPY LEVEL.
ALSO, STAWK BUYBACKS I SHOULD MENTION.
EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS ARE SO LOW, U BASICALLY NEED TO EARN AN F REPORT IS = TO AN A+ REPORT IN TODAYS ''MARKET''. MAKES SENSE I KNOW
Dude... I feel your pain. I gave up shorting 2 years ago... How smart you are doesnt matter anymore. Accept that and life will become much easier and you wont need the CAPSLOCK
Q3 earnings will be fucking terrible but who cares, cheap $ to fund more M&A and buybacks, groovy man!
Where is the additional 'flow' coming from?? We all know its the flow that matters. I thought it was drying up??
Is this all just direct manipulation on low volume?
TYLER...need a piece on the flow and if the trend is broken or if something else is at play here.
Well bad earnings based on the estimates that were made last month would be terrible for stocks. BUT REMEMBER EARNINGS ESTIMATES CAN BE ADJUSTED RIGHT UP TO THE POINT THEY ARE RELEASED.
What was a $3.84 expected earnings report can be adjusted by analysts down to $1.50 with no consequence at all. Then when the company announces they made $1.60, HALLEFUCKINLUJA!!!!!! RAMP THAT BITCH 20%!!!!!!!!
It doesn't matter that they earned less than half of what people expected just a week before. THEY BEAT THE NEW NUMBER!!!!!!! Algos see a beat and they buy, buy, BUY!!!!
But then again, terrible earnings are great for stocks because it means more Fed money.
EVERYTHING IS GREAT FOR STOCKS!!!!!! You didn't get the message?
+1 So true
Earnings?
We don't need no stinkin' earnings
We got buybacks on the backs of the muppets
The curtain was pulled back long ago, it's a brick wall. On it are the words...Fuck You!
P.S. We run the world...Banksters Inc.
Now eat your bowl of gruel serfs and shut up.
It's been really fun, but I'm done.
What's the use in commenting on this stuff, or posting charts or trying to make sense of something for which there is no sense?
It's all pointless.
Yeah, I think I'm done with daily stock watching for now. This shit isn't good for you... mostly because of the drinking after.
I don't think alcohol is the right drug for this.
"looks like i picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue"
never gets old...
You wait until AFTER? I didn't realize that was an option.
We know the world is for shit. We know it's run by criminal psychopaths who divided and conquered us over things that really shouldn't fucking matter to anybody else other than the individual person.
Liberty and freedom: Two of the most useless words ever created. Right up there with hope and faith.
I hear ya, I need a drink man! I was up 8k on the day until that last push up round 1925. lost a little over half....oh well, no steak this weekend, but I guess I didn't do too bad considering the nut baggery. I was listening to the Shadow Traders today and P.Rez was just like, this must be a change in trader disposition, he doesn't believe in algos or manipulation, which, I mean EVERYONE isn't out to get you, but you can't ignore the fact that this stuff does happen. Guess if you are a long term investor then the sky is really the limit until the people finally decide that they have had enough of the marlarkey.
Amen to that. Absolute imagination, corruption, fantasy...
I've been done. I stopped engaging in civil discourse over a given topic a few years ago because I realized there could be no civil discourse as everything seemed to be relativistic, then I stopped commenting on politized issues as speaking on such things can have unintended consequences, now I rarely comment at all as it seens hardly worth the energy as everything is upside down as well as sideways and cannot be reconciled by any form of logic, fuzzy or otherwise.I'm a square peg in a society dominated by round holes...
Dude, do I get you.
Ever since Hammering Hank stole a trillion from us for his friends- I've been up in arms. I blogged for 6 years about this criminal regime they installed in the US especially that mystery asshole who masquerades as our leader.
What we have witnessed is unprecedented. The inmates have control of the prison. The government doesn't lock anyone up, the FED counterfeits trillions and uses it's proxies to prop up the stock market and drive gold thru the floor. I was reading about the Swiss looking into PM rigging last night amongst 7 banks and I burst out laughing.
How long can this shitshow continue? A lot longer than any of us thought possible. You are not alone.
Unprecedented is right and the machine (that I scoffed at the notion long ago) has done its job most effectively, as we now have a sound bite society dominated by people who were never taught or have lost their ability to think critically. Good citizens of the united world are what graduate now.
I've thought much on the the old slogan"kill your television" and I think it is more apropo today than it was back in the day. Victims are now the guilty ones and we treat symptoms rather than look for root causes. Side effects? Who cares if one of them is homicidal tendencies or death, hey at least they're honest right? We are bombarded with info reality and most cannot see what is plainly in front of them. I see us caught in a matrix, a prison without bars so to speak. The lunatics run the asylum and they get more insane with each passing day and my only saving grace is that I have many more days behind me than are ahead. Whatever insanity this is, is unsustainable and critical mass is on the horizon...
Just take a break whenever you need, the markets won't go away.
Remove any bias (easier said than done i know), and remember the markets are just a method by which few strong hands take money from a vast majority of players.
Sort of like poker....well, exactly like poker.
Nothing like poker anymore. There is a lot of excess capital that in a normal market economy would have died. This excess is drastically warping market behavior.
If you remember that capital obtained fraudulently has a different risk profile than a normal market participant you can usually protect yourself from the abnormal.
Just dollar cost average and forget about it.
Here´s an interesting one! VIX ( Wichs/ sic) means having a wank in German.
Funny that! No?
PEAK MANIPULATION.
We know these numbers are fake, they know these numbers are fake too.
There's something rotten in the state of Denmark.
-- Shakespeare
Ha! Saw the numbers at the open then the numbers at the close. Everything seriously red and dying at open, everything spectacularly green and alive at the close, even effing treasuries!
Thought to myself, ZH'ers heads are gonna explode on this one! Lovin' it.
Have a great weekend folks ROFLMfuckingAO!
ZH'ers heads are gonna explode...YES.But....ZH'ers heads not SURPRISED this happened...we have seen this far to often lately.
Enjoy the Yuan smack coming Sunday.....
The trader junkies want another hit of the good stuff...just one more time and they come clean and produce jobs....just one moar
If you did your DD, read all the financial news, monitored the layoff reports, called companies, crunched your analytical tools, and concluded that the employment numbers would miss - you would have been absolutely right - and had your ass handed to you by this rigged casino market.
we all saw goldman setting up this one last week into this week.
god's work.
This is a great place to short from.The hopium will be short lived and the squeeze was just a rinse out in front of Q-3 earnings.
Me Hope u right. I'm soo short right now I looking up at cockroaches!!
You speak of GAAP or non-GAAP, unadjusted or seasonally adjusted?
neither, In my bank im just going to classify everything down to my "The Donald" toupe as an asset, mark it to fantasy and move my massive steaming pile of junk bonds from available for sale to investment held to maturity and call it a day and let you try to figure out why I would do that.
Who will win the Chicken Dinner?
It's too late for those shenanigans Knuks.
There comes a point in every cycle, when even a turd with lipstick, is still a turd.
The non-GAAP farce has run it's course, and is reflected in HYG, and other corporate debt indexes.
Assuming some idiot CEO tried to mis-state earnings, there's no benefit, as their cost of borrowing will rise if the Fed. lifts rates. ;-)
The buyback ponzi will be exposed for all it is...
Nope... If anything these guys will report earnings on the barrel head, in hopes that the Fed. will come to the rescue again.
BTW? I keep reading stories about banks [primary dealers] making insane profits from excess reserves, and playing the equity markets with almost zero risk exposure[borrowing costs], and then announcing massive layoffs? WTF?
The CORP's particularly MULTI-Nationals have huge exposure to rate increases. I've always said the markets will dictate risk, with or without the fed.
Yes indeed Yen you do "keep reading stories about banks [primary dealers] making insane profits from excess reserves, and playing the equity markets with almost zero risk exposure[borrowing costs], and then announcing massive layoffs"
And most ironic is that the vast majority of those excess profits have been eaten up by legal costs, fines and settlements, let alone salaries and bonuses. Meaning, nothing has been accomplished except the raping of the entire system. Parallel phenomenon to the Clinton Initiative extorting entire countries.
The New Normal Absolutely breath taking in its magnitude, scope and depth
The puppets pushing on strings, might want to consider 'piano wire'.
The "daft" uneducated financial news the MSM feeds the public of the "United Banana Repubic of Amerika" is asstounding.
First of all, the issue isn't 25 basis points for ANYTHING consumer related.
There's long term sovereign swaps agreements, Cov-lite, and other derivatives that trade on 1-3-5 bps, because of the Federal Reserve idiocracy.
What do you think ME, EM, Sovereigns use as collateral? When $USD borrowing costs rise even 3-5 basis points for one of those market segments, it creates a cascade event on the secondary market because yields/risk are priced artificially LOW.
There's no risk premium, because the Fed. is manipulating global interest rates. That in itself generates risk, as lenders hoard assets, and tighten credit.
The markets are already dictating interest rates, and the Fed. is scared, because any rate increase they introduce will be added to the prevailing market "risk premium".
Raising rates 25-50 basis points has nothing to do with the American consumer. Hell, you can go lease a new car with zero down[ reg, transfer fees ect] for 3 years at almost zero percent interest.
don't short until you see the whitefish in their eyes!
Pfft, we don't need no stinking fundementals!
The counter punch is a sucker punch.
You'll never see it coming.
It makes all the sense in the world, unless you thought the market was still based on the underlying economy and earnings. All that matters now is the mother's milk that Janet gives. This was the first step to QE4 so in the electronic playground things went up
Indeed, how many times have we seen the only chart that matters on ZH? (i.e. Fed money printing corelation with the S&P)
All that matters now is the mother's milk that Janet gives...ewwww, I think I just had a mini-stroke trying to keep that mental image out of my head...
This is not what SHOULD happen but in a purely fiat system, with humans at the controls of the money system, it is the only thing that can happen.
We will see a crack up boom and we will never be allowed to have a deflationary collapse.
Both however result in the loss of perceived wealth so the end will be pushed back as far as possible.
Investing is impossible now.
Double bottoms aren't by any means always weak, see stocks circa '02-'03.
I think what we just witnessed was the ultimate act of desparation. Rising PM's might indicate someone doesn't think they are going to be able to steal any more gold in the near future from another middle eastern country. If left alone to free market forces, that might turn out to be the straw that they think could break the camel's (market's) back. So I think we might have just witnessed a complete market fraud show done in pure desparation to keep the game going a bit longer. This game is about over, and they know it. Just look at the graphical symmetry between the DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P 500.
Get thee prepared !!
nah, nothing is over. a 6% move in paper Silver really isnt much. PM's are volatile. This type of market action is precisely what happened literally all the time in the 2010-2013 period. Bad news equals more/continued fed easing which supports asset prices.
The sheer and utter insanity of what they are doing amazes me. The worse things get, the worse they make things. I guess when you have nothing to lose you do things like that. So the banksters that own the Fed are 5 Trillion in the hole. Let's see if they can stomach 10 Trillion, after all, it's really only little green pieces of paper.
back to the good old days of bad news is good news. Fed Fund futures kicking the rate hike can to 2016 = party on!
"Now go home and get your f**king shine box."
Best Mob movie, *ever*...
Damage control team gets a bonus kicker for this week.
Boss!
De plane, It's de plane !
Okay so it's BTFD again or no? Very confused.
1343 SPX into October FOMC
said by a card carrying member of the PINKO FASCIST COMMIES...
dont tell John Birch...
This is before my time, Gramps...does 'pinko' mean they are gay, also?
Think they are trying to convince the world that this is a double bottom - that the re-test that everyone has been talking about has been successful - "look at the market shoot up. Party Time!" They can protect important support that way and can use short-covering as fuel on the way up.
Think they are also trying to put some fear into overconfident bears and show that they can still move the market when they want to.
Problem is the world is falling apart. The thin veneer of normalcy will only hold for so long. Cracks are appearing all over the place in the macro data from all over the world. It is only a matter of time before there is something big enough to crash through in a way that PPT cannot protect against. Until then, it will be a bumpy ride!
Good luck - its a dangerous world out there!
It's all about where the monies at. Charts like this , show the path to the money !
Do you believe in magic?
Here are some signs of a coming recession.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-02/us-factory-orders-flash-recession-warning-drop-yoy-10th-month-row
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-02/us-financials-default-risk-spikes-2-year-high
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/09/27/vix-predicts-pits-while-pundits-have-fits/
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/05/29/mergers-and-acquisitions-set-record/
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/20/fed-warns-of-two-bubbles/
Here is how to prepare.
http://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/
Promote yourself, elsewhere.
Well you can tell everyone I'm a down disgrace
Drag my name all over the place.
I don't care anymore.
You can tell everybody 'bout the state I'm in
You won't catch me crying 'cause I just can't win.
I don't care anymore I don't care anymore
I don't care what you say
I don't play the same games you play.
'Cause I've been talking to the people that you call your friends
And it seems to me there's a means to and end.
They don't care anymore.
And as for me I can sit here and bide my time
I got nothing to lose if I speak my mind.
I don't care anymore I don't care no more
I don't care what you say
We never played by the same rules anyway.
I won't be there anymore
Get out of my way
Let me by
I got better things to do with my time
I don't care anymore I don't care anymore
I don't care anymore I don't care anymore
Well, I don't care now what you say
'Cause every day I'm feeling fine with myself
And I don't care now what you say
Hey I'll do alright by myself
'Cause I know.
'Cause I remember all the times I tried so hard
And you laughed in my face 'cause you held all the cards.
I don't care anymore.
And I really ain't bothered what you think of me
'Cause all I want of you is just a let me be.
I don't care anymore d'you hear? I don't care no more
I don't care what you say
I never did believe you much anyway.
I won't be there no more
So get out of my way.
Let me by
I got better things to do with my time
I don't care anymore
D'you hear? I don't care anymore
I don't care no more
You listening? I don't care no more
No more!
You know I don't care no more!
"fuck that" pretty much sums it up.
Whats the problem? Everybody knows it's volatile out there, instability etc. Up 300 one day, down 300 the next. Its the new normal. Gerald Celente predicted a great crash by the end of the year, he has 3 months left or a public apology will be required.
Do you require a public apology from the nig-tards on CNBC and Bloomturd, as well? Did you get one in 2002 or 2008? Grow up, fool.
its friday...bonus chart??
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/02/us-usa-fed-stability-idUSKCN0R...
Prick asset bubbles with rates? Fed officials split
BOSTON | By Jonathan Spicer
The question of whether the Federal Reserve should adjust interest rates to deflate risky financial market bubbles split some top Fed policymakers on Friday, suggesting the controversial idea is re-emerging as the U.S. central bank approaches an historic policy tightening.
Giving the central bank an effective third mandate - beyond its formal objectives for inflation and employment - has won more adherents since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, which some blame in part on too-easy monetary policy in the preceding years that allowed risks to take root.
As the Fed approaches its first rate hike in nearly a decade, one reason to act sooner than later is to head off any brewing instabilities in risky corners of financial markets such as leveraged loans, high-yield debt and even automobile lending.
So far the Fed's approach has been to use financial regulations and supervision of banks and other firms - so-called macroprudential tools - to head off any emerging risks. Monetary policy has focused on achieving the goals of 2-percent inflation and maximum stable employment.
But Fed officials discuss financial stability quite frequently in their meetings and those discussions already do influence policy decisions, according to a paper co-authored by Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren.
"There are reasons to believe that financial stability should be an explicit consideration of monetary policymakers," concluded the paper, published Friday at a Boston Fed conference attended by central bankers from around the world.
Rosengren, among the dovish Fed officials who prefers to keep rates low to boost employment, called the research "an initial foray into this area ... but it does capture I think the way we seem to behave."
The paper was based on the number of times Fed officials mentioned terms related to financial stability in policy meetings from 1987 through 2009, which is the latest year for which transcripts are available.
References spiked in the late-1990s technology bubble and again in the recent crisis, it found, with for example "stock market" referenced 1,210 times in that time frame, "bust" 982 times, "volatility" 853 times, and "froth" 30 times.
Concerns about possible bubbles in the financial system have increasingly come to the foreground as policymakers consider when to begin raising rates after nearly seven years near zero, with Fed Chair Janet Yellen and most others predicting the move will happen later this year.
Yellen and others have publicly worried that keeping borrowing costs too low for too long can fuel too much risk-taking by investors and possibly destabilize the economy.
However Narayana Kocherlakota, another dove and the head of the Minneapolis Fed, came out strongly against adding the goal of stabilizing the financial system to the U.S. central bank's list of duties, saying that doing so would add to existing public uncertainty over the Fed's existing two goals.
"Adding a financial stability mandate would likely generate more public uncertainty about policy choices and economic outcomes," Kocherlakota told the conference in response to the paper.
The Fed should only be concerned about financial stability to the extent that it affects its ability to reach its other two goals, which are enshrined in U.S. law.
The Fed should be clearer about its existing goals, and should promise to calibrate policy so that it can reach its inflation goal within two years, he said, adding it would need to ease - not tighten - policy to reach such a deadline.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, also in Boston, cautioned that monetary and macroprudential policy discussions should probably be separated to protect the central bank's cherished independence.
"If effective monetary policy means taking away the punch bowl just as the party gets going, then effective financial stability policy might mean taking away the punch bowl before the guests have even arrived because the risks to financial stability build up over time and action likely needs to be taken earlier in order to be effective," she said.
While the Fed is bound by the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform law to defend against risks to the financial system as a whole, it has generally interpreted that to mean directly supervising banks and other financial institutions, and writing tougher rules on things like capital standards.
Randall Kroszner, who was a Fed governor during the crisis, said the central bank is still struggling to figure out its new role of ensuring financial stability.
"We don't want to have central banks to prevent risk-taking from occurring," he said. "It's a much trickier issue."
You guys have short memories.
Today looked to me like the pefect "MOR QE PLZ" bad-news-is-good-news trade that we seen several times a week, from Gold's highs in 2011, running to about late 3rd Quarter 2014. Even better Gold and Oil seem to be "calling the market's bullshit" so they should rise along with the fake indexes.
Well, that's my theory anyway. I am hedged if I am wrong.
Fewer and fewer good jobs is very very bullish.
Means negative interest rates and QE4,QE5,.....QEto infinity!
Dollar will be free-falling at some point. The Fed will continue printing.
Tell me when you want me to play Taps.