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Goldman's NFP Post-Mortem: A December Rate Hike Is Now A "Close Call"
In addition to the Fed's credibility, one other privately-controlled organization that has seen its credibility completely crushed in recent months is the Goldman economic forecasting team (if not the team that "forecasts" Fed monetary policy, simply because Goldman controls the Fed and tells it what to do; as such what Goldman "thinks" the Fed will do is usually ironclad) whose Jan Hatzius "for what it's worth" forecast above trend growth for the US economy in 2014.
So, "for what it's worth", here is Goldman jobs report post-mortem (in a parallel report Goldman just cut its Q3 GDP forecast from 2.0% to 1.9%), in which the bank admits that the report was a disaster, and that as a result "we now see action at the December meeting as a close call."
1. The downshift in job growth continued for a second month, with nonfarm payroll employment increasing by just 142k in September (below consensus expectations of a 201k increase). Job gains for the prior two months were also revised down by a total of 59k. Private payroll growth increased by 118k in September, following a gain of 100k in August. The average increase in private payroll growth over the last two months of 109k has fallen well-below the 205k per month pace in the year through July. The slowing in private payroll growth has been fairly broad-based, with notable weakness last month in manufacturing (-9k), mining & logging (-12k) and financial services (flat). Government employment growth remained firm, rising by 24k.
2. Other details in the establishment survey were similarly downbeat. The average workweek declined to 34.5 hours, reversing its gain in July. Average hourly earnings (AHE) were unchanged on the month, and increased by just 2.2% from a year earlier. Although some weakness in AHE was to be expected based on calendar-related distortions, the result was below our forecasts which had taken these factors into account.
3. The household survey showed a decline in household employment of 236k (+269k on a payrolls-consistent basis). The U3 unemployment rate remained at 5.1%, but declined on an unrounded basis (from 5.112% to 5.051%), and the broader U6 underemployment rate fell three-tenths to 10.0% as a result of a large decline in involuntary part-time employment. The labor force participation rate fell two-tenths to 62.4%.
4. With payrolls, unemployment claims, consumer sentiment, vehicle sales, and a number of business surveys in hand, our preliminary read on the September Current Activity Indicator is +1.9%, down from the +2.7% figure in August.
5. In recent weeks we have argued that the FOMC is on a narrow path to liftoff in December—needing to see continued solid domestic growth, better inflation trends and easier financial conditions. At the moment we look to be off that path—domestic activity has slowed somewhat, and neither inflation nor financial conditions have improved—and we now see action at the December meeting as a close call.
Which, of course, should only come as a surprise to muppet clients: after all the same Goldman two weeks ago admitted that "our “GSFCI Taylor rule” suggests that the FOMC should be trying to ease rather than tighten financial conditions. Our own view in terms of optimal policy is quite strongly in favor of waiting well into 2016."
And what Goldman wants, Goldman gets, even if it means that now instead of a rate hike, the market should start pricing in the odds of a NIRP, or maybe even QE4, announcement in December.

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Goldman’s “forecasts” should be used as a renewable energy source.
I hear that dried-up shit burns really gewd. ;-)
Looney
Wish someone would put a slug in both of their craniums...
Why put Lloyd out of his misery?
He is just starting out on the chemo train.
pods
To put him out of our misery.
Touce!
Hell awaits that MF.
He may not get in… I’ve heard it’s restricted.
Seeing these two disgusting faces, the only right thing is to spit right into it.
I wish he would take the same stance as Steve Jobs. Speed up the process.
QE IV in the works AFTER Tiaa-cref sells and only then. When the teachers unload the asset purchases resume.
"We're in the money !" Banksters suck.
Two of the biggest cons in American history!
I can only hope both those fukkers die a slow, painful, horrible death.
Death is forever because it resides in an eternal state, which is the "absence" of time.
The biggest con currently resides in the white house.
I know people are stupid, but how much longer can people keep believing this shit? Can they say " rate hikes next month " for the next year? Fuck sakes.
They got away with " the economy recovered for 7 years", this may go on a while.
Here is an hour long version of Everyting is Awesome. Watch and listen for the full hour and you too will believe we are in a recovery.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCKONHUigVk
Did you see the message below the channel's name? Making a 10 hour version. Find out where that chap lives and stay away from any "gun free" zones nearby especially if his mother goes door-to-door petitioning against cockroaches because her son doesn't like them; he might take an insanity break.
how long until uncle warren announces his disease that will conveniently kill him when SHTF?
He's has been dying from the same heart attack for the last twenty years. (Michael Corleone discusses Hyman Roth)
Satan already has his soul, so that flabby husk could last - though it would be great if it was something quick and we didn't have to hear him say another word or see another stupid article about him on the low-brow financial rags.
If Satan has his soul, then does Jesus have your soul? It is one or the other...believe it or not makes no difference, for the truth always surfaces; usually when it is too late.
Shut the fuck up with your Hebrew tainted religion.
That is some weird shit right there, just sayin'.
Moar QE maybe.
More QE, only called something/anything OTHER than QE.
"QE4? What are you talking about? We didn't do any more QE!"
Punxsutawney Phil has more credibility than that bunch of wide boys.
… and a nicer personality.
This is so easy; if inflation is at 2%, put prime at 6%, then send every American $6 Million taxed at 10%.
We can put some in treasuries earning 8%, buy a house, a new car, send the kids to college, eat out more often and tip well.
If you believe these liars you should have your head examined...what they meant to say was...No Rate Hikes + Negative Rates.
http://news.muckety.com/2010/01/08/six-degrees-of-phil-gramm/23671?plnk
nov/1999 106th congress
hillary & bill your two presidential couple
We will still be talking about a rate hike next year...not going to happen.....the next hurdle is a debt ceiling that they are going to hit early for some reason....I thought Obama fixed the debt problem...he said so....he fixed the deficit....so hes says
You'll be scared stiff and froze by then, but keep hope alive for the tribe, denile is not just a river in Egypt.
Wow this clown show is getting good now! LMFAO!
Goldman wants MOAR? No! It can't be!
JESUS !!!!!!!!!!!!! Going by the market turnaround it looks like bad news is good news (still).
ZIRP and QE trump everything. Amazing.
Get the F*ck out of the market 'cause common sense will wipe you out.
There will be no rate hike, and these assholes know it.
Being the *perverts that they are, they love jerking people around, because...they can!
* Yes I know it gives perverts a bad name.
I don't trust Lloyd Blankfein...he has done so many underhand deals...wait..what's this...look at the picture...where is his left hand...ugh..
I'm sure Warren's first thought was:
"What's Becky doing behind me?"
How's that Lymphoma cancer, Lloyd?
Still eating you up inside?
Hey Lloyd here's hoping your cancer kills you slowly and very painfully. And when your suffering here on earth is over I hope you rot in Hell and burn for an eternity. Have a nice day
Neither Jamie or Lloyd had/have cancer; they only wanted to help "special" clients grab some money by shorting the company prior to the announcement; when the CEO of a major cartel bank makes such an announcement, the stock of that company takes a temporary downward hit. Magically both will be cured as Jamie already has received the miracle; thus no evidence of real treatment and neither will there be of Franknstein.
Hey Warren I hope you choke on your next ice cream cone you piece of shit.
Everytime I look at either of those bastards I have to take a shit.
"Involuntary-Clench"
Buffet's left hand looks reptilian and I would know; I deny any relation.
Odds of QE 6 before 1% FED FUNDS rates.
25%
100%
Forget about rate increase. I really think there is some back door QE ( not official to the public) going on since the end of summer.