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"They Just Don't Want A Job" - The Fed's Grotesque "Explanation" Why 94.6 Million Are Out Of The Labor Force
In a note seeking to "explain" why the US labor participation rate just crashed to a nearly 40 year low earlier today as another half a million Americans decided to exit the labor force bringing the total to 94.6 million people...
... this is what the Atlanta Fed has to say about the most dramatic aberration to the US labor force in history: "Generally speaking, people in the 25–54 age group are the most likely to participate in the labor market. These so-called prime-age individuals are less likely to be making retirement decisions than older individuals and less likely to be enrolled in schooling or training than younger individuals."
This is actually spot on; it is also the only thing the Atlanta Fed does get right in its entire taxpayer-funded "analysis."
However, as the chart below shows, when it comes to participation rates within the age cohort, while the 25-54 group should be stable and/or rising to indicate economic strength while the 55-69 participation rate dropping due to so-called accelerated retirement of baby booners, we see precisely the opposite. The Fed, to its credit, admits this: "participation among the prime-age group declined considerably between 2008 and 2013."
And this is where the wheels fall off the Atlanta Fed narative. Because the regional Fed's very next sentence shows why the world is doomed when you task economists to centrally-plan it:
The decrease in labor force participation among prime-age individuals has been driven mostly by the share who say they currently don't want a job. As of December 2014, prime-age labor force participation was 2.4 percentage points below its prerecession average. Of that, 0.5 percentage point is accounted for by a higher share who indicate they currently want a job; 2 percentage points can be attributed to a higher share who say they currently don't want a job.
And there you have it: there are nearly 100 million working-age Americans who could be in the labor force, but are not "mostly" because they don't want a job.
Nothing about the lack of job demand as mega corporations continue to lay workers off in droves instead of hiring, instead using every last dollar of free cash flow to buyback their own stock to boost executive compensation instead of growing their company and hire more workers.
Nothing about the collapse in small business formation - that driver of 80% of US employment - as firm exit rates are now greater than firm entry rates
Nothing about the inability to get a job in a world in which the rest of
the global is lapping the US in educational and labor skills.
Nothing about the US economy never having left the post-2008 depression where $4.5 trillion in Fed credit was created just to boost the S&P to all time highs and never making it to the actual economy (until the helicopters finally start paradropping of course)
Nothing about millions of aging, 55 and over, Americans refusing to retire or quit their job simply because they have no return on their savings to fall back on thank to the Fed's ZIRP, thus keeping the labor pipeline clogged and preventing younger Americans from getting promoted and achieving better paying jobs.
Nothing about a Millennial generation encumbered with $1 trillion in debt, that is so terrified of its job prospects and having to pay down its debt, it choose instead to keep rolling and piling on to this debt by remaining in college indefinitely
Nothing about the perverted incentive structure of a welfare state that makes it more attractive to collect generous government handouts which end up punishing hard work.
None of that.
You see, it is because Americans "mostly don't want a job."
And these are the pompous academic "intellectuals" who are supposed to micromanage the US economy. But how can they fix the biggest problem facing the US economy when they fail to even accurately diagnose what the problem is?
Which, incidentally, is why the same old Fed tools will be used and abused in hopes of kicking the can down a few more months at at time, be it QE 4, 5, 100, or ever more negative rates, both of which are coming.
How long will this continue? Now that is a very simple question: it will continue until the dollar loses its reserve status, just like the pound before it, and the livre before that, and the guilder before that, and so on.
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The Federal Reserve is the official US Office of the Economy. That is why they gave themselves the power to print money.
If people do not have enough work or money to live on, the problem lies with the office responsible for the economy. The people themselves have absolutely no power to create their own jobs when the entire economy is shrinking thanks to official policy.
How about companys flooding the job market with H1Bs to compete with Americans for the few jobs that exist?
Anytime you see one of the Fed people its some kind of fat f**ckr that obviously did nothing but inherit a position. I'll tell you fat f**cks this: I'll trade jobs anytime. I don't think I'll have any problem being you-- Just going to dinner and telling goalseeked lies. Then you can be me: Trying to scrounge up actual work from customers who are so far under the gun that as common decent people they will still lie about what they can afford to pay to have their shit fixed. And as for getting a job, all a person has to do is bring their good reputation, customers, tools and infrastructure, and billing system to one or your sh*thook buddies for the privilege of getting half or less than what they used to make. Alternatively, go through the educational system to the point of achieving some specialization that supposedly qualifies the specifications of these "job openings". Then you're totally screwed. You might know quantum something or another up one side and down, but the specs change just a hair and your skills ain't sh*t. And then all these dickfu*ks in "high" office saying the people won't work.
Nice way to test the fallout cloud.
It's very radioactive.
confusus (sic) he say...when you pay a benefit for not working....people drop out of the labor force... socialsit donkeys are buying votes with benefits... i would estimate that the true number of people who would not be looking for work if they weren't getting paid to do nothing but use socail media to order a uber cab on their i-phones....would be around 20 million....just saying.
FUCK THE FED
FUCK WASHINGTON...AND ANY MOTHERFUCKER SPEWING SHIT OUT OF IT.
The douche in that picture makes me want to beat the shit out of him and his kind. Good thing I'm on prozac so these feelings will never manifest.
When it hits, your prozac supply will dry up. Then you can grap a rope and find some of these critters.
Well, in a sense, this is true. Take for instance a laid off engineer. After 20+ years in a respectable job, he might not be interested in ding frys are done, sell off all his shit, move in with his elderly parents and say fuck the world. And I wouldn't blame them for doing so. There's always a negative consequence for fucking people over, you can't have it all motherfuckers.
Just don't forget. Dont forget when ya come to kill me, please don't forget to bring me my hundred million dollar bonuses!!!
well, once you have a job, you have to pay back those student loans. and being unemployed is actually better than being underemployed. underemployment will be on your record and no one wants to hire a burger flipper for a real job. unemployed? well, you can always be freelancing or "finding yourself" or any number of reasonable excuses.
the good jobs are vanishing, the decent jobs are being created for foreigners who can be underpaid and locked down with H1Bs. My wife gets job offers in the US all the time.... until they discover her status as being eligible for an insta-green card. Then nope, zero interest, they do not want people they do not have complete control over. H1B? work unpaid overtime, no vacation, shit healthcare, 40% below market, and they have complete control over your visa. Green Card? haha, they might dare to leave and find something better. fuck that
Interesting.
H1B? work unpaid overtime, no vacation, shit healthcare, 40% below market, and they have complete control over your visa. Green Card? haha
Exactly!
How are the unemployed supposed to "find" themselves when they have barely enough money to keep themselves fed? You only get unemployment benefits (that are a fraction of your old pay) if you are laid off and, other than about $133 in SNAP benefits for food per month, and a few hundred a month if you have a kid, the government isn't handing out anything to anybody.
I understand what you are saying about the impact on a resume as opposed to the burger flipper job, but I hardly think its a choice many are able to make without suffering relatively more hardship.
The real problem is, everyone knows they're going NOWHERE.
You aint rich, you aint going anywhere.
We are the conquered masses led to believe we're free. The financial coup of 1913 is slowly heading east. Either you submit or watch your nation go up in smoke. Just look around and talk to people, you'll soon realize how far we have to go before we're truly free again.
I think Russia, and the rest are on to them, but how will the World respond? What will they try to do to US? And what will the criminal network within let happen, again?
That is one offensive banker's biatche.
If the choice for me were a McJob, or working under the table for $12-$15/hr., I'd take the latter.
At last count, the underground economy in the U.S. was around $2T or so, and has exploded under Obama. It can be lucrative for a lot of people, folks are eager to pay cash and keep stuff off of the books.
Exactly, there is a real reluctance to pay tax when your Government is screwing you every single day with IRP, NIRP and free money for the rich
Well...if we're gonna be truthful, it's not that I want a job
Why take a minum wage job, when SSD, EBT & Welfare pay them more. Not to mention they can sit around all day watching TV, Playing Xbox or just pounding down some Grogs. I say we give Oblaba his wish and overlaod the system and thus crashing it, as promised by our fearless leader or should we say the real decision maker the Iranian Bullyker... Valerie Jarret. We know it will happen, so get it done already! I am ready for thr reset!
Gotta be disabled to collect SSD (and you will make a fraction of what you were making before you went on disability), EBT averages $133 per month and welfare, or TANF, which is only available to people with kids, is TEMPORARY, recipients must work as soon as they are able to, within two years of coming on assistance, and the average benefit is $300-$400 a month for a family of three (not enough to live on, who has extra money for "grogs"?). Why work when you can have it SO GOOD??? Dolt.
And there you have it....why I'm buying more Aussie medium cap, massively profitable, no debt Aussie Gold mining stocks Monday. You can keep your physical Gold, lovely as it is, when this rolls over there will only be one place to be invested and its not the Banks.
Any miners in particular stand out? I will wait for Tuesday...
They cant get there heads around why Donald Trump is gaining in popularity, will probably remain completely ignorant until he is sworn into the White house,
The Knights [T]emplar [
S/:Tv
I feel there are 90m people out there, with a lead weight of debt, loosing houses, cars, health, that want to rip someones throat after reading this
They won't read it. The MSM will make sure of that.
i dont know about you but im tired of cock slaps to the face by these gay fags. it would be easier to take if my dog didnt understand econ better. get those pitch forks sharpened fight club its on now
The United Nations, stated some years back, humans need to consume less, as the planet can't take it. So I guess we should see a continued contraction of world labour forces.
In fact we will have to pay people to choose not to work in the traditional sense, or reduce the hours to create 2 jobs and put everyone on a max 2 day working week.
Why should humans need to work if we can get technology to make JOBS redundant to humans. We could do something more creative with our life, other than WORK !
That's where we're heading.
None of them want to work. Just as all of them bought too much house. And none of them want to pay the mortgage.
Listen to These scumbags never stop the lies and manipulation. I still cannot believe the masses haven't burned this cesspool of a government down to the ground. At a minimum just take the $500 million away from this asshole and then on to the next asshole. Just leave them broke and naked. What the fuck are they going to do about it.
The Fed could always hire 94.6 million "Fed Governor Assistants" at $100,000 a year.... But here is what would happen....
4 million would not show up the first day
10 million will not show up the second day
The Fed will discover that 10 million lack basic reading and writing skills
Another 10 million don't speak any English
Another 10 million will spend all day on social media
Another 10 million will spend all day on porn sites
Another 10 million will call in sick after buying drugs with their first paycheck
Another 10 million will file discrimination lawsuits because they were given "Assistant" jobs rather than "Executive Assistant" jobs
Another 10 million will show up and start writing policies that attack conservatives
Another 10 million will show up and start looking for ways to hire their brothers, mothers, cousins, and relatives into the same jobs
And 600,000 will actually show up, have skills, and be good workers...
But why does anybody need to work in the US when they can just Print all their problems away with no downslide, no coscequences and never has to be payed back. Sure the Rich would get more free money than the peasants, but what difference does it make.
Retire? Who can retire with the Fed's zero interest rates..??
They created the no retirement situation. Only people that can retire are govt workers and their hefty pensions.
deleted...(double post)
Yeah well, who wants a minimum wage job that wont even pay the rent or buy food while they look out the window at some manchild who never grew up driving around in a 200K toy that he never worked for?
Answer>>>>>>>>>Nobody.
You sound jealous of the person driving the '200k toy'.
The real culprit is 50 million illegals diluting the US job pool. If you remove 50 million or even half that amount from the US job market, employees are a more valued commodity and as with anything of higher value it is worth more.
That theft of jobs, elections and tax dollars by illegals along with the theft of tax dollars by government unions and subsidized union jobs and pensions, like GM, USPS, and 'prevailing wage' BS is killing the American workers jobs and standard of living. Government jobs, pay, benefits and pensions become bloated pigs while the average citizen standard of living becomes emaciated.
Maybe the Fed is right. Perhaps the ones not working in that age group resent being forced to work for a few FRNs while the Fed is handing out billions of them to their friends for free (and Washington wastes them like toilet paper). More and more workers are feeling like chumps in this Fed system.
And they should. Because you are right.
From today's New York Times, Paul Theroux writes of "The Hypocricy of 'Helping' the Poor"
In relative terms; if you have a $1,000 you will never spend and you give a $1.00 to charity you are hardly magnanimous.
Da Gubbamint makes a two prong attack: they kill all chance for business to grow and create jobs, and then they make it more profitable to stay at home on da welfare (for many people.) Then they come up with this idiotic notion that people don't want jobs?
Find me a job that pays enough to live off of. I'm at $18 an hour working for the USPS...an employer that really sucks...and I am barely making the bills. No insurance, health or life, and no retirement. No, I'm not a union protected full benefit worker for the USPS; I'm in the shadow labor force they had to create to get the work done since the union rats won't break a sweat (except at Xmas; they really work then.)
Notwithstanding those who actually want a job, but can't get one that's commensurate with their ability (education and experience), how is this a surprise, when there are other alternatives? E.g., Become an
Baby Boomer (retired 10 years ago, at age 60)
Blog site manager/owner
Early Retiree
Entrepreneurial Tax Dodger
Eternal Student
Criminal in a Gang
Disabled and morbidly obese (a fast-growing population)
Disabled War Vet with benefits
Drug Lord
Illegal Alien (working their tail off, but not paying taxes)
Incarcerated Convict
Oligarch Job Creator (who has an army of minions to do the real work)
Professional Gambler
Retired Fireman, LEA or Military person
Retired Gov Employee
Welfare Queen
etc, etc.
That's millions and millions of people, "Living the American Dream": Easy money, and an acceptable lifestyle.
All those retirees you cite can only happen at the tax payers expense. That is, if you have a union job paid for or subsidized by working citizens, you can retire early. That includes your mentioned; 'Baby Boomer (retired 10 years ago, at age 60)', few can afford to do so unless paid for by the confiscation of money from other peoples pay check. The baby boomers are among the highest employed group in America.
Their ia a need to outlaw government unions and government subsidies of unions such as the bull shit called 'prevailing wage'. Liberals and their butt buddy unions are a disease destroying America.
Baby boomers aren't retiring because they don't have enough retirement income.
Criminal in a gang has a short life expectancy.
"Eternal" student needs funding
Disabled and morbidly obese is a miserable existence that earns a fraction of what your wages were before becoming disabled
Incarcerated convict...right
Welfare queens no longer exist. TANF if only $300-$400 a month, only available for 24 months for people with dependents (and who wants to be responsible for kids?), during which you have to seek employment.
So, the money for these people may seem "easy", but its not enough, and the lifestyle they have is not what most people would consider to be "acceptable" unless you are resigned to hopelessness.
Welfare Queens and their associates have branched out into different endeavors to make ends meet, some listed above. Considered some of those options myself.
The funny thing about ZH-ers is that your dream is to cancel all social support and force those 94 millions to work for $7 an hour. That will surely shrink inequality. ROFL!
Well, certainly it's not that simple. Some other changes will need to take effect. That's *if* the Authorities finally lose. Time, and the plebe's access to knowledge will tell.
Hungry and broke motivates one, too ...
The saddest part of not reporting and ignoring the true unemployment rate is politicians deceiving the people for the sake of optics.
Hank Fuckwad Paulson is just like Dark Side of the Moon. Years later he keeps showing up at the top of one of my lists.
Here's a little anecdote, a microcosm of why people are opting out of the system.
I registered my adopted dog with the county, of course I had to get his vaccinations for rabies (which is a bullshit scam but that's another story) and pay $30 for the license.
This is something you have to do every year, and every three years you have to pay for a (bullshit) rabies vaccine booster which costs something like 100 bucks after you factor in the vet visit etc.
I decided not to register my dog the next year because I think it's a big fucking scam. Here's where it get's good.
They sent an underage civilian to my house knocking on my door asking why I hadn't registered my dog. I told him to fuck off. Then a couple months later they sent another one knocking on my door that I also told to fuck off.
Then they sent me a letter in the mail threatening me that they would send a deputy sheriff to my home and cite me if I didn't register my dog. I tore it up.
Then a deputy sherriff came to my house and left me a note that said they would give me a ticket if I didn't register my dog.
So I registered my dog.
In this free country if you opt into the system you will be hounded for more "gibs me dat" by whatever institution you opted into. Having a job, paying your taxes, being a "citizen" of this country means you get fucked with if you decide to opt out.
I talked to a bunch of my friends and they said "yeah thats why we don't register our dogs"....but I had to be a good citizen and opted in, now it's got me until my dog dies.
Just remember goys, they hate us for our freedom.
just a gentle notice to you - they will dun you *after* your companion has passed, or until they accept notice of the death. Thinking *ahead* now, are you?
Enjoy your time together!
Do you have any idea how much excise tax is on a car in Massachusetts or the insane amount that connecticut charges you to register a car or what an expired meter parking ticket costs in nyc??? $30 for anything now let alone a fee or fine is nothing
Probably not totally untrue but the "Furious Auto Workers Demand More Than "Hot Dogs And Hamburgers" As US Car Sales Soar" story illustrates why
Ike Reilly is an American singer-songwriter, musician, and writer as well as frontman and founder of the indie-rock band the Ike Reilly Assassination.
Ike Reilly, Lights Out:
It won't be long till the money's all gone
and the trucks roll in and shut the power down
and the life I've built
out of credit and sin
gets put into collections
as I'm messing with the breaker
sorting out the problem
trying to figure out if I really even got one
Lights out
anything goes
ducking all the crosses
slipping all the low blows
right now it's just the lightning that glows
Yes I'm lookin' for the family
Yeah, but all I ever find is problems
I gotta tell ya all about a time back when I had one, yeah...
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zN3CbDWBNM