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Have We Reached A "Peak Water" Tipping Point In California?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Gaius Publius via DownWithTyrannry blog,

It may be a see-saw course, but it's riding an uphill train.

A bit ago I wrote, regarding climate and tipping points:

The concept of "tipping point" — a change beyond which there's no turning back — comes up a lot in climate discussions. An obvious tipping point involves polar ice. If the earth keeps warming — both in the atmosphere and in the ocean — at some point a full and permanent melt of Arctic and Antarctic ice is inevitable. Permanent ice first started forming in the Antarctic about 35 million years ago, thanks to global cooling which crossed a tipping point for ice formation. That's not very long ago. During the 200 million years before that, the earth was too warm for permanent ice to form, at least as far as we know.

 

We're now going the other direction, rewarming the earth, and permanent ice is increasingly disappearing, as you'd expect. At some point, permanent ice will be gone. At some point before that, its loss will be inevitable. Like the passengers in the car above, its end may not have come — yet — but there's no turning back....

 

I think the American Southwest is beyond a tipping point for available fresh water. I've written several times — for example, here — that California and the Southwest have passed "peak water," that the most water available to the region is what's available now. We can mitigate the severity of decline in supply (i.e., arrest the decline at a less-bad place by arresting its cause), and we can adapt to whatever consequences can't be mitigated.

 

But we can no longer go back to plentiful fresh water from the Colorado River watershed. That day is gone, and in fact, I suspect most in the region know it, even though it's not yet reflected in real estate prices.

Two of the three takeaways from the above paragraphs are these: "California and the Southwest have passed 'peak water'" and "most in the region know it." (The third takeaway from the above is discussed at the end of this piece.)

"For the first time in 120 years, winter average minimum temperature in the Sierra Nevada was above freezing"

My comment, that "most in the region know it," is anecdotal. What you're about to read below isn't. Hunter Cutting, writing at Huffington Post, notes (my emphasis):

With Californians crossing their fingers in hopes of a super El Niño to help end the state's historic drought, California's water agency just delivered some startling news: for the first time in 120 years of record keeping, the winter average minimum temperature in the Sierra Nevada was above freezing. And across the state, the last 12 months were the warmest on record. This explains why the Sierra Nevada snow pack that provides nearly 30% of the state's water stood at its lowest level in at least 500 years this last winter despite precipitation levels that, while low, still came in above recent record lows. The few winter storms of the past two years were warmer than average and tended to produce rain, not snow. And what snow fell melted away almost immediately.

 

Thresholds matter when it comes to climate change. A small increase in temperature can have a huge impact on natural systems and human infrastructure designed to cope with current weather patterns and extremes. Only a few inches of extra rain can top a levee protecting against flood. Only a degree of warming can be the difference between ice-up and navigable water, between snow pack and bare ground.

 

Climate change has intensified the California drought by fueling record-breaking temperatures that evaporate critically important snowpack, convert snowfall into rain, and dry out soils. This last winter in California was the warmest in 119 years of record keeping, smashing the prior record by an unprecedented margin. Weather records tend to be broken when a temporary trend driven by natural variability runs in the same direction as the long-term trend driven by climate change, in this case towards warmer temperatures. Drought in California has increased significantly over the past 100 years due to rising temperatures. A recent paleoclimate study found that the current drought stands out as the worst to hit the state in 1,200 years largely due the remarkable, record-high temperatures.

The rest of Cutting's good piece deals with what the coming El Niño will do. Please read if that interests you.

There's an easy way to think about this. Imagine the thermostat in your home freezer is broken and the temperature inside goes from 31 degrees to 33 degrees overnight, just above freezing, with no way to turn it down. Now imagine the Koch Bros (and "friends of carbon" Democrats) have emptied your town of repair people — every last one of them is gone. It's over, right? Everything in the freezer is going to thaw. Then the inside is going to dry out. And everyone in your house who doesn't already know this will figure it out. All because of a two-degree change in temperature that can't be reversed.

When it comes to climate, two non-obvious rules apply:

  • Change won't be linear; there will be sudden bursts at tipping points.
  • Pessimistic predictions are more likely to be right than optimistic ones.

Most people get this already, even if they haven't internalized it. Which is why most people already know, or strongly suspect, that California and the American Southwest have already crossed a line from which there will be no return. This revelation, from the state's water agency, just adds numbers. Time to act decisively? Do enough people think so?

Negative and Positive Takeaways

I said that two of the three takeaways about California, from the text I quoted at the beginning, were these: "California and the Southwest have passed 'peak water'" and "most in the region know it." The third is from the same sentence: "though it's not yet reflected in real estate prices"  — meaning farm land as well as urban property.

It's just a matter of time, though. Prices will fall as awareness hits, awareness that future prices can only fall. Note that prices in bear markets tend to be decidedly non-linear. And when that awareness does hit, when land is cheap, insurance expensive and the population in decline, nothing coming out of the mouths of the Kochs — or methane-promoting politicians in the Democratic Party — will change a single mind. (In terms of our playful freezer metaphor, you know the thing's going to end up in the yard, right? It just hasn't been carted out yet.)

But that's just the negative takeaway. There's a positive takeaway as well. It's not over everywhere, not yet. From the same piece quoted at the top, referring to the tipping point of extreme weather:

This [incidence of extreme weather] is "a" tipping point, not "the" tipping point. We have slid into a "new normal" for weather, but please note:

  • We're talking only about the weather, not a host of other effects, like extreme sea level rise. I don't think we've passed that tipping point yet.
  • We can stop this process whenever we want to — or rather, we can force the "carbon bosses" and their minions in government to stop whenever we want to stop them. They have only the power we collectively allow them to have.

It really is up to us, and it really is not too late in any absolute sense. For my playfully named (but effective) "Easter Island solution," see here. For a look at one sure way out, see here.

Will it take a decidedly non-linear, noticeably dramatic, event to create critical mass for a real solution? If so, we could use it soon, because the clock is ticking. It may be a see-saw course, but it's riding an uphill train. (Again, the real solution, expressed metaphorically, is here. Expressed directly, it's here. Everything less is a delaying tactic.)

 

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Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:37 | 6633248 Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

The photo looks like half-dome in winter vs. half-dome in summer.

All I know is not to climb that fucker in winter.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:55 | 6633318 Payne
Payne's picture

If the snow pack was extra thick does that mean a New Ice age ?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:59 | 6633341 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

"The photo looks like half-dome in winter vs. half-dome in summer."

Not that it would matter to you, but they were all taken around the same time in March (March 19 give or take a couple of days).

Man, talk about the Tylers throwing a raw chicken into alligator infested waters with this article.  

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:02 | 6633352 Four chan
Four chan's picture

it looks better without snow.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:10 | 6633383 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

I still say you've got the best avitar on ZH Four Chan . . .

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:22 | 6633434 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

I've never been able to read his text.  What did he say?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:37 | 6633503 jimmytorpedo
jimmytorpedo's picture

He said, "lick my nipples"

Or something like that.

Just upvote him.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:54 | 6633571 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

2015 vs 2012 pictures - that is supposed to be significant?

Are you kidding?

Even 120 years is an insignificant period of time.

 

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H. L. Mencken

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 22:17 | 6633831 Motasaurus
Motasaurus's picture

Meanwhile on the East Coast and in the Mid-West the snow pack didn't fully melt until the end of July. 

I wonder if there might be some kind of correlation between the two events. 

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 00:07 | 6634155 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Moar hoaxisms.

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 01:19 | 6634284 Macchendra
Macchendra's picture

Darwin awards everyone an upvote for standing up to those greedy scientists.

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 07:19 | 6634655 TongueStun
TongueStun's picture

Global warming is manmade.....IT'S A FUCKNG MANMADE SOCIALIST  JEW MEDIA LIE TO RAISE TAXES ON WORKING PEOPLE....

 

If I wanted to read STUPID SOCIALIST JEW MEDIA LIES I'D GO TO ABC

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 08:34 | 6634823 ClimateWarrior
ClimateWarrior's picture

I have nothing to do with Jews. Or socialists. I am a scientist, though. Can you think critically?

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 07:00 | 6634621 Not Goldman Sachs
Not Goldman Sachs's picture

Grrat lakes pipeline bitchez. Never say never.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 21:54 | 6633760 billybobtx
billybobtx's picture

No, he clearly said "MOTORBOAT"

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 00:39 | 6634215 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Agriculture works better without snow.

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 08:28 | 6634806 ClimateWarrior
ClimateWarrior's picture

And without water too?

(I love clueless comments)

Alex

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:24 | 6633445 californiagirl
californiagirl's picture

This article does not mention that Antarctic ice is at a record high as measured by NASA satellites, that it just snowed in Yosemite, and recently at Kirkwood, that the Pacific Decadal Oscellation (PDO), which has been is a negative (cool) phase since the end of the last Super El Nino in 1998, has been showing signs of switching to a positive phase which is likely to bring much more rain to California for the next decade or so, or that the Sun cycles are showing declining activity. 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:33 | 6633480 techpreist
techpreist's picture

The thing is, the Earth is very much a metastable system, and small changes can cause large, unpredictable changes at a local level. Nature is not conducive to central planning.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 22:20 | 6633840 McCormick No. 9
McCormick No. 9's picture

But Central Planning is exactly how the global power want to solve the "water crisis"!

I live in the SW. Better than average water year this past year (10/15 to 10/15), to be followed by an epic ENSO water year.

All you'll hear next year is stories about CA floods.

These fuckers aren't prophets, but they sure like to make dire predictions. "Peak water", my ass. The stupid cocksucker that wrote this article is a fucking idiot. Weather is a random system. I say this stupid motherfucker should hire some technical analysts to "predict future weather" just like they predict future stock prices based on past events. A LOAD OF BULLSHIT.

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 00:41 | 6634220 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

There's no reason to believe that what's happening isn't natural. To point the finger at man (or VW emissions cheating for that matter) is unsupportable since we lack a real understanding of what cycles the earth does go through. Who's to say the prior ice age will not be repeated in the future?

I have a hard time swallowing the 'it's all our fault' syndrome. Nature is a lot more resilient than people give it credit for, just look at how nature works constantly to destroy what we've built. Nature is presistent and relentless.

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 06:05 | 6634544 Augustus
Augustus's picture

The article does not include the real context of the current water situation.  Evidently the last 150 years or so have been very abnormally wet for California.  What is really happening is that rainfall / snow is returning to the real normal.

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 08:37 | 6634826 ClimateWarrior
ClimateWarrior's picture

Not really. This drought (2012-2014) is unprecented in at least about 1200 years, and getting worse rapidly.

.

 

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 08:35 | 6634824 ClimateWarrior
ClimateWarrior's picture

What is better? No plan or wrong plan?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 21:16 | 6633645 Implied Violins
Implied Violins's picture

Yup. That's the scientific aspect. However, I'm disappointed: I scanned all the posts and didn't see anyone mention the whale in the room:

GEOENGINEERING, PEOPLE!!

http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/

Until this bullshit stops - and it is world-wide - we can't fully know what's really going on. And it won't stop until people start looking up and noticing that things are not what they used to be decades ago. I mean, my God, just go outside and look at the sun (after the chemtrails dissipate) - what color is it now? And what color was it thirty years ago?? That alone should get people thinking...

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 22:11 | 6633817 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

++Nice.

I've been going there for quite some time.

So many layers of deceit and radically excessive over centralization already.

The author of this post (as presented by the magnificently talented Tyler's) is actually very impressive. Legitimacy is mingled with bullshit. Talented though for sure.

Some folks even think this stuff involves genuinely satanic elements.

Of course those folks tend to believe in God.

The malignancy consuming humanity goes far...past 'climate change'.

If these 'leaders' who are so concerned about climate change were actually worth considering as intellectually credible.. Wouldn't they also be concerned with the immediate madness of this entire construct of 'government' which has slaughtered literally hundreds of millions of human beings over the course of these last few generations? I mean come on??

The current 'political arrangement' is really so out of touch with reality that they actually believe humanity is so fucking successfully stupidified as to continue following the demand to go FORWARD off a fucking cliff?

Global warming/climate change my ass.

Humanities current single most pressing issue is the direction we are being herded toward. Why should we trust the current crop of sociopaths?

 

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 00:39 | 6634217 MEAN BUSINESS
MEAN BUSINESS's picture

Putin seems concerned with AGW and "immediate madness" as you put it. He's exposed the 'War on Terror' for what it is. He took the opportunity to discuss the real danger to humanity. Are you saying he's, what, misguided, and CHEMTRAILS!!!! is where we should all be focused?

SHAKEIT FFS, humanities pressing issue is population.

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 01:16 | 6634279 Implied Violins
Implied Violins's picture

No, the world's most pressing issue *IS* Psychopaths:

http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/psychopaths-in-power/

These very bastards are using the MSM to push their woe-is-us overpopulation BULLSHIT to blame *US* for all the shit that ***THEY*** HAVE CREATED TO KILL US OFF: GMO's, vaccines, fluoride, AMA medical poisons, radiation, chemtrails, etc.

These bastards have decided they don't need us any more, and will start ratcheting up their agenda to KILL US OFF over this next year because too many of us are awake now, too many who can stifle their 'plans' which do NOT include US. If you are identifying with their propaganda, then YOU are deluded!

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 02:43 | 6634366 californiagirl
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As mentioned by this climate change website  (http://www.oceanites.org/antarctica/), 90% of all ice and 70% of all fresh water is locked up in Antarctica' ice. So, why does just about all the MSM, and all IPCC devotees, igore the record ice in Antarctica?  You would think it would be an important climate factor.

Due to increased ice, they may have to relocate some of the Antarctic research stations because the supply ships can't get in. 

http://m.phys.org/news/2015-05-antarctic-sea-ice-logistic-problem.html

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 08:45 | 6634846 ClimateWarrior
ClimateWarrior's picture

Antarctica is melting too. Well documented now. Why do you thinks it is ignored?

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 08:30 | 6634811 ClimateWarrior
ClimateWarrior's picture

Yeah, just ignore the FACT that 2015 will be the hottest on record, following 2014 which was also hottest on record, and 2016 will be... you got it, also hottest on record.

 

BTW you have no idea why there is increasing floating ice around Antarctica - hint, it does NOT mean cooling.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 21:58 | 6633768 Pickleton
Pickleton's picture

Not that it would matter to you but California started entering a significant drought in 2012....

 

Forgive me if I don't throw my arms up and proclaim the sky falling.

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 23:10 | 6633996 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

"And across the state, the last 12 months were the warmest on record."

Absolute, utter, bullshit.  I'm in the Mojave Desert aka High Desert, normal July/August temps used to be 110+, I've seen 124 in the past. Went on hikes as a kid where my ears would ring from the heat.

This summer I don't think we had more than a couple days above 110.  It's been practically cold, compared to the past, particularly in the evening.

Even NOW (8 PM), this moment, there is already snow in Big Bear and Wrightwood (Mountain High) and today's high was 66 and right now its a chilly 55.  Last week we were in the high 80's.

As far as high desert temps go, this has been mild

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 00:52 | 6634240 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Annecdotally: Summer here in coastal CA (just NW of LA), was the warmest, and most humid I can remember (~40 years). No June Gloom, many days in the 80's, rather than the "normal" upper 60's/low 70's. A bit more inland, it seems days over 100 were far fewer than usual however, temps remained pretty solidly over 90, with no breaks in that trend. No heat waves, but a constant warm spell for about 3 months.

Entropy? :P

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 03:00 | 6634384 californiagirl
californiagirl's picture

I made several trips to coastal California (just north of Santa Barbara, near wine country) in July and August. The weather was gorgeous, in the high 60s to mid 70s. Even inland, wine tasting, was pleasant, not getting above the 80s. Compared to trips in previous years, it was just about normal, though perhaps a bit cooler.

I certainly wouldn't consider this year the  hottest. I have a photo I took about a decade ago showing the outside temperature reading on my car"s dashboard at 110 degrees (in Silicon Valley). That was the hottest day I can recall during my life growing up in the Valley. But it wasn't the hottest year. There were earlier years where there were more days in the high 90s and low 100s. The past 3 to 4 years prior to this year have had unusually cool summers.

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 01:53 | 6634323 fencejumper
fencejumper's picture
July Was Hottest Month Ever Recorded; 2015 Still on Pace as Warmest Year

 

http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/earth-record-warmest-july-2015-0

 

The First Six Months of 2015 Have Been the Hottest on Record

 

http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/earth-record-warmest-january-ju...

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 06:10 | 6634556 Augustus
Augustus's picture

The problem with those statements is that the time frame for records are simply too short.

Past temperature have been much higher for extended periods.  Just no one around with a thermometer to measue and write it down.

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 08:47 | 6634855 ClimateWarrior
ClimateWarrior's picture

We know that Earth warmed more than 1 °F/century. That is significant change already. We know it happened 99,9 % of history and order of magnitude slower.

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 06:30 | 6634590 cavedigger
cavedigger's picture

Utter crap. Just because MSM parrots the administration's line on climate change does NOT mean it is so. They cherry-pick and adjust the temperature data to make it say what they want it to say. And they're coming out with more alarmist headlines everyday because of COP 21 in December. Now I'm going to fire up my wood-burning stove because it has been cold here recently.

 

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 11:30 | 6635558 fencejumper
fencejumper's picture

Nonsense. Since when is weather.com the MSM?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:19 | 6633421 Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades's picture

No - that is too logical.  It would simply mean that global warming is accelerating!

 

It is just like the Fed and BLS.  We are in a recovery!  The labor markets are great!  We'll just take more people out of the labor market as needed to get the unemployment rate where we want it and the Fed will move the goal posts as needed so that it doesn't have to increase interest rates (god forbid b/c our economy would crater if they went up 25 basis points lol).

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 08:49 | 6634861 ClimateWarrior
ClimateWarrior's picture

Global warming speed up is a BAD thing. Economic recovery is a GOOD thing. Why to you mix these two?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:28 | 6633456 DocMims
DocMims's picture

Too many people moving to California for the desert environment to support.  They have pumped the aquifers dry to pour water on the desert for too many years.  Based on the trees. the last 3 photos appear to be taken in the same year.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:36 | 6633499 techpreist
techpreist's picture

When they leave the state, people from the Midwest should put up "No Calis" signs to match the "No Okies" signs Californians put up during the Dust Bowl.

Seriously though, they ruined much of Colorado. Let them eat the consequences of their 'enlightened' policies.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:52 | 6633562 duo
duo's picture

Still, where the hell are 100 million refugees supposed to live (the Democrat dream scenario)?

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 02:29 | 6634361 o r c k
o r c k's picture

Sweden.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:54 | 6633573 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Wait till another thirty million immigrants come in from overseas to share the water resources.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 21:28 | 6633687 Sanity Bear
Sanity Bear's picture

Suddenly, millions of Mexicans being in California does matter.

 

Enjoy your daily shower ban, libs.

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 00:07 | 6634157 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Amigo, is that you?

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 03:25 | 6634411 Diplodicus Rex
Diplodicus Rex's picture

Docmims - You're right about those trees. They never grew an inch or put on a single additional needle in 4 years. Highly suspicious.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:36 | 6633249 lostintheflood
lostintheflood's picture

best information i've seen on climate change...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ew05sRDAcU

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:15 | 6633408 gammab0y
gammab0y's picture

That was worth the time.  Thank you!

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:35 | 6633489 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

The Suspicious0bservers channel should be visited everyday.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:36 | 6633498 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

Good. But thats just facts. How about humor?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W33HRc1A6c

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:45 | 6633526 Roanman
Roanman's picture

Excellent stuff.

Far superior to the Chicken Little bullshit being proferred by the above climate liars,

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 21:20 | 6633640 Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture

Thanks for that link.  It's the best 'broad summary' I have seen yet.  Great info.  I live in SW Canada and I can tell you that I have seen nothing that even hints of global warming.  Like the coldest and snowiest December last year in all of Calgary's recorded weather history.  The year before that, the heaviest September snowfall ever... one that destroyed a million trees in this city alone.  They were in full bloom and the leaves caught tons and tons and millions more tons of snow.  A lot of damage to this heavily treed city.   SNAP.  SNAP.  SNAP.

Thanks again.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 21:23 | 6633669 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

The Stupid runs strong in this one...

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 08:34 | 6634822 sdmjake
sdmjake's picture

Apparently you didn't see that excellent documentary, "Day After Tomorrow". Global warming makes everything super cold.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 21:19 | 6633651 Deus Irate
Deus Irate's picture

Many thanks for the link fellow weary traveller.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 21:43 | 6633733 californiagirl
californiagirl's picture

This one is also worth watching.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ANMTPF1blpQ

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:36 | 6633251 Perimetr
Perimetr's picture

Rush Limbaugh says global warming is a liberal hoax.

I know he must be right because Missouri has put a bust of him in the Hall of Great Missourians, at the capitol in Jefferson City.

No sh*t

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:51 | 6633304 Timmay
Timmay's picture

If the global or regional temperatures are "wrong", what they supposed to be and according to whom??

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:11 | 6633389 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Did Winston teach you nothing? The temperature is whatever they say it is, and if it is right or wrong.

Feel the boot???

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:13 | 6633399 surf0766
surf0766's picture

How many times do the "scientists" have to get caught manipulating the data before the world walks up to this scam.

 

John Holdren in the 1970's.. global cooling. Next ice age coming

John Holdren   Obama administration,, global warming.

John Holdren 2012 "Climate Change"

 

 

He skipped talking about "Global Climate Disruption". I guess he never got the talking points memo

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 21:11 | 6633628 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Making shit up are we?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 23:14 | 6634013 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Doesn't change a thing...

Quote mining is for for lawyers and shills...

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 00:35 | 6634206 Tallest Skil
Tallest Skil's picture

What a neat premise. So even when, say, the United Nations itself comes out and says, "The force behind 'climate change' is economic, not meteorological," you can simply dismiss that as being a "quote" which was "mined" and therefore false.

Must be nice to have a world view predicated on feelings rather than fact. And by nice I mean more depressing than the fires of Hell itself.

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 03:52 | 6634433 MEAN BUSINESS
MEAN BUSINESS's picture

My three words of wisdom for my kids: Look after your teeth, don't smoke, and never marry a lawyer...

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 07:36 | 6634686 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Doesn't change a thing...

Quote mining is for for lawyers and shills...

And there it is on full unglorious display. Flakmeister struts about the chessboard knocking down pieces, takes a shit and declares victory. Well played!

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 07:54 | 6634723 schadenfreude
schadenfreude's picture

He is the "Gartman" of climate forecasts

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:38 | 6633257 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

You see the Chinese have these secret blast furnaces that are invisilbe. They use them to melt the snowpack.  

- Donad Trump 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:44 | 6633280 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Well, at least that's 100% more believable than the AGM nonsense.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:57 | 6633329 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

Bump 100+

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:18 | 6633419 BigJim
BigJim's picture

AGM?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:29 | 6633458 jay35
jay35's picture

Let's go with Anthropogenic Global Mourning, Alec. That seems to be all they do anyway.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:43 | 6633276 loregnum
loregnum's picture

Good ol' humans...acting like a planet's entire history can be tracked over the last 120 years. They also think they control what things like the sun can do to a planet.

If humans don't wipe themselves out sooner than later, I imagine than in the next century or so that people will lok back at this period and just shake their head at the things some believed in. They'll laugh at the idea that humans are the mian factor in how the climate operates. It's no different than how we can look back at people of the past and wonder how they could be that stupid.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:56 | 6633324 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

They also think they control what things like the sun can do to a planet.

Thank you!  It is the epitome of arrogance for people to believe that humans can have more effect on the climate of the Earth than the Sun can.  This kind of thinking just proves that things like a real science education and critical thinking skills are dead in most western countries.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:05 | 6633360 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

Remember the Exxon Valdez? That was very visual.  Man can fuck things up just fine. Maybe not to the same degree as a huge fucking comet or asteroid hitting the earth or the universe imploding into a singularity...but we are working on app for that. 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 22:40 | 6633902 Cornfedbloodstool
Cornfedbloodstool's picture

Fact: The average hunter gatherer in Europe circa 20k bc had a better standard of living then your average nig-nog living in intercity werever.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:40 | 6633508 Thorny Xi
Thorny Xi's picture

Believe it or nor, the sun's output is known and monitored. It's not changing enough to correlate with sea and air temperature changes. P

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 22:08 | 6633808 Pickleton
Pickleton's picture

http://www.dakotavoice.com/2009/06/nasa-study-shows-sun-responsible-for-planet-warming/

 

Believe it or not, NASA seems to think it's had a significant impact.

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 23:28 | 6634060 yogibear
yogibear's picture

At some point the sun will get so large and hot that it will burn off the earth's atmosphere.  Eventually the sun will change. 

The looney left-wingers may stop all the autos without much of an impact? Maybe.

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 07:37 | 6634565 MSimon
MSimon's picture

Believe it or nor, the sun's output is known and monitored. It's not changing enough to correlate with sea and air temperature changes.

Well the UV band has changed a lot. Maybe it is not total output that matters but the wavelength distribution.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:47 | 6633292 RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

The family had property within Yosemite Park for over 50 years, we finally sold the last part of it a few years ago because the health of the Sierras had been in an obvious state of decline for a long time.

California has been turning back into a desert for at least 15 years.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:51 | 6633300 Laddie
Laddie's picture

Just look at California's population growth and the changing demographics since 1960.

Germany will be having similar problems as will England and the rest, such as Sweden.

Germany now expects up to 1.5 million migrants in 2015 Oct 4, 2015

"Overpopulation in the United States will become THE single greatest issue facing Americans in the 21st century. We either solve it proactively or nature will solve it brutally for us via water shortages, energy crisis, air pollution, gridlock, species extinction and worse.

U.S. population will double from 300 million to 600 million on its way to 1 billion in the lifetime of a child born today if we fail to change course."

Frosty Wooldridge 2000

This is by design of course not mere happenstance.
Ted Kennedy is not responsible for the Immigration Act of 1965

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:29 | 6633462 Chris Dakota
Chris Dakota's picture

Immigration Act of 1965 was three (if I am not mistaken) Jew congressmen.

Jews use immigration as a weapon.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 22:12 | 6633819 Pickleton
Pickleton's picture

On what fucking planet do you live that 3 congressmen pass and enact a law idiot.  Please ignore the 533 OTHER people that must be involved.

idiots use jew hatred to hide their small ... intellects.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 22:15 | 6633827 Chris Dakota
Chris Dakota's picture

Yeah they pushed it through, 3 merry jews. yup

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 00:42 | 6634223 Tallest Skil
Tallest Skil's picture

Keep your mental defects to yourself, please.

http://web.csulb.edu/~kmacd/books-immigration.html

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 06:16 | 6634562 MSimon
MSimon's picture

And you are powerless to stop them. They use chemtrails, HAARP, and secret mind rays. There is nothing you can do about it except live in agony.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:51 | 6633303 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

My sister and brother-in-law (one of them; we have a large family) has a lovely place in Rancho Bernardo, San Diego area.  It's a very nice Mediterranean-style house, valued at about $1.8 million.  This past summer I was visiting them and, without thinking, asked if they were considering selling it fast before everybody realized the area was going to be uninhabitable sooner rather than later.  They thought I was kidding.  This guy is a brilliant engineer, and my sister's pretty sharp too.  They've just got so much normalcy bias and wishful thinking in place they can't see the obvious.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:11 | 6633390 Faeriedust
Faeriedust's picture

Yeah.  And my Little Brother gives marching orders to rocket scientists at NASA, but he spent half a million on a small waterfront mansion in Norfolk, VA.  Only one street in their neighborhood flooded last week, so obviously his property values aren't in any danger from climate change!

Strange how people can define "normal" without any reference to history or science, isn't it?

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:51 | 6633305 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

When are people going to stop believing this non-sense about human caused global warming and face the fact that natural causes of climate change are what is occurring?  The evidence is overwhelming that not only is the Earth's climate changing but so are the climates of other planets in the solar system.  All of this is related to changes on the Sun and how the Sun interacts with the planets in the solar system and has nothing to do with fossil fuels or any of the other anthropomorphic climate change BS TPTB are trying to push down our throats so they can enact their carbon tax and carbon "cap and trade" schemes to squeeze the last pennies out of the middle class around the world. As with all these kinds of past psyops and scams just follow the money and ask "cui bono"?  Or are you human caused global warming zealots too stupid to do that?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:11 | 6633391 Tallest Skil
Tallest Skil's picture

One small quibble. Anthropogenic, not anthropomorphic. That'd mean drawing a smile and sunglasses onto the Sun.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:15 | 6633407 Postal
Postal's picture

Denier! Off with his head!

/sarc

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 07:35 | 6634684 Gold Dog
Gold Dog's picture

We should call that Rico guy----he can fix this!

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:53 | 6633312 BouncingCat
BouncingCat's picture

"For the first time in 120 years..." You mean this happened before? Before man was desecrating the Earth? Who was humping Mother Gaia back then?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:11 | 6633387 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Papa Sol.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:56 | 6633579 Kyrie eleison
Kyrie eleison's picture

"nearly 30% of the state's water stood at its lowest level in at least 500 years this last winter"

 

I call BS.  Lewis and Clark never reached the Pacific coast until 1805.  Who was around 500 years ago to measure the state's water level?  Lies.

 

 

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 22:16 | 6633829 Pickleton
Pickleton's picture

LOL, that's like that news clip I heard today of South Carolina's idiot governor proclaiming that they haven't seen that kind of rain in 1000 YEARS.  WTF was around measuring rainfall back then?!

 

LYING FUCKING LIAR THAT LIES!

 

 

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 22:32 | 6633871 californiagirl
californiagirl's picture

"nearly 30% of the state's water stood at its lowest level in at least 500 years this last winter"

Doesn't that mean that 70% of California's water was NOT at its lowest level in 500 years???

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:53 | 6633315 itstippy
itstippy's picture

The Buenaventura River has enough fresh, clear water to supply the entire drought area West of the Rockies now and in perpetuity.  It's what California dreams are made of.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:56 | 6633322 The Pope
The Pope's picture

I think we need to send all the climatologists on a (one way) mission to Mars to see if this phenomenon is happening there too & they can report back on their findings.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:00 | 6633343 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

I think we need to send all the climatologists on a (one way) mission to Mars to see if this phenomenon is happening there too & they can report back on their findings.

Save the money . . . it IS happening on Mars also. I guess there must be a lot of invisible cars and coal fired power plants on Mars.

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 02:02 | 6634332 californiagirl
californiagirl's picture

Clearly they have ignored the solar-system-wide climate change discussed in the Suspiscious0bservers video posted in an earlier comment. Many planets are undergoing much more drastic changes than the Earth. Here is another video on the subject:  http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Km3uhv6oVWg

Or perhaps the climatologists will still prefer to believe that Jupiter's, Mars's, Venus's, Saturn's, Neptune's, and Uranus's climate change are also anthropogenic. I am still waiting for a "reputable" science magazine to publish an article explaining how it is all man's fault.

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:57 | 6633328 atomicwasted
atomicwasted's picture

First time in 120 years =/= first time ever.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:57 | 6633330 gmak
gmak's picture

What about 200 years ago? didn't 'we' go through the same thing?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:05 | 6633351 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

What about 200 years ago? didn't 'we' go through the same thing?

Actually about 200 years ago we were just coming out of a mini ice-age called the "Dalton Minimum".  The "Minimum" was in reference to the lack of sun-spots for an extended period of time which caused global temperatures to plummet for about 40+ years.  Evidence is pointing to the Sun doing the very same thing right now . . .

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:57 | 6633332 Faeriedust
Faeriedust's picture

Frankly, I cannot understand why all the technology companies in California, so full of supposedly highly intelligent people, continue to insist on building bigger and bigger headquarters there, or why their entrepreneurial spinoffs don't have the common sense to move to Omaha, or at least Atlanta.  The fundamental water problem in California is too damned many people.  The ecosystem simply can't support all those guzzling sprinklers, showers, toilets, and car washes.  It's insane, and either they move out or they'll start to die off.

Of course, there are also numerous engineering adaptations that could be initiated, like CLOSED reservoirs underground, instead of open to evaporation into superheated desert air.  This technology was perfected about three thousand years ago in the Middle East; it could be implemented in about six months if Californians got serious about dealing with the situation.  I can only be but so sympathetic to people who sit around crying and gnashing their teeth instead of rolling up their sleeves and getting to WORK on solving their problems.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:36 | 6633495 alphahammer
alphahammer's picture

"or why their entrepreneurial spinoffs don't have the common sense to move to Omaha"

BBBWWWAAAAHHHHAAAA!

Because Omaha. I've been there. 

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 06:04 | 6634539 MSimon
MSimon's picture

I grew up there.

Omaha

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:36 | 6633496 general ambivalent
general ambivalent's picture

Should be pretty obvious by now. If their headquarters run out of water and have to shut down their stock should rip for a good 3 percent for the day.

Catastrophic drought is the new broken windows.

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 01:33 | 6634295 MEAN BUSINESS
MEAN BUSINESS's picture

80% water useage in Cali is AGRICULTURE. The 'folks' are going to have to do battle with Big Ag. The 'folks' will win because the farms simply can't.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:57 | 6633335 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

Bogus, the trees are exactly the same in all pics except 2012.  

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:02 | 6633353 hannah
hannah's picture

i go get tacos every time there is an el nino.....ole..! fuck california....

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:10 | 6633368 gmak
gmak's picture

What about 200 years ago? didn't 'we' go through the same thing?

Anyway, the rats are deserting the sinking ship.

 

"Top Scientist Resigns Admitting Global Warming Is A Big Scam"

 

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 01:41 | 6634313 MEAN BUSINESS
MEAN BUSINESS's picture

No. PSSSSTTT, it's different this time.

"September 2015 - Russia admits global warming is a threat to humanity" Congrats VV Putin, you've come a long way since *fur coats* :)

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:08 | 6633374 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Based on the lunatics who run this planet, climate change is likely to be moot.

More likely humans will be offed by them than climate change.

Humans have fucked up the land, the air, the rivers and the seas.

Anyone really believe the atmosphere got a pass?

 

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 01:52 | 6634319 MEAN BUSINESS
MEAN BUSINESS's picture

Lunatics R us. The warming, REAL climate change, awaits us all...

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:09 | 6633378 TuPhat
TuPhat's picture

I'm glad those 'paleoclimate' people can tell what the weather was 1,200 years ago because the weatherman can't get tomorrows weather right. Somehow I just don't buy this crapola.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:18 | 6633417 arbwhore
arbwhore's picture

Weather is not climate. Climate can be observed from historical clues but neither weather nor climate can be accurately predicted.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 22:41 | 6633908 NuckingFuts
NuckingFuts's picture

Yes, many geological and biological indicators can provide reasonabley sound data on prior climate. All of this "people weren't there, so how can they say", bullshit is a little juvenile and beneath what I would expect from ZH. And before you say it, I am not a commie, gay, Jew, or libtard. I am just a student of environmental sciences, who understands that human observation it but one form of data.... And is often unreliable.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:21 | 6633427 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Weather is to climate as a car is to traffic.

Hope you don't drive, if you can't tell the difference.

 

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 02:03 | 6634334 MEAN BUSINESS
MEAN BUSINESS's picture

By all means, enjoy the luxury of not having to buy it. Future generations won't have that. Think 7 generations for starters.

The Tragically Hip / Road Apples/ The Luxury - 1991

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iN7l6IiytNM

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 05:52 | 6634533 MSimon
MSimon's picture

I can accurately tell you what the temperature was at the local measurining station for all of last month. I don't have the records for all of next month. 

 

A thousand years ago will leave traces. Next month has yet to do that.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:09 | 6633380 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Deport all the illegals

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:17 | 6633414 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

to mars...we don't want them coming back...

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:24 | 6633440 Chris Dakota
Chris Dakota's picture

no they can make rain, many are Indio and they work cheap.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:12 | 6633396 Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades's picture

I for one see profound irony in a "DownWithTryanny!" blog advocating extreme and unconstitutional government tyranny to compel not just a reduction in carbon emissions but zero carbon.  LOL.  This is a great article to save and refer to so we can remember how asinine and irresponsible the predictions were.  Like "The End of Snow".   It will snow again in CA and when big storms hit it will of course also be blamed on global warming.  Climate alarmists just don't understand standard deviation.  CA precipitation has a large standard deviation.  But the larger area of collossal ignorance is the complete failure to understand geologic time.  The "worst drought in 1,000 years" is insignificant in a 4.5 billion year timespan.  Climate in CA has changed dramatically over time.  Death Valley used to be Lake Manly and was once 80 miles long and 600 feet deep.  Obviously the climate is profoundly different now and will undoubtedly be profoundly different as geologic time continues.  These self absorbed ignoramuses who think the climate of their completely insignificant time on earth needs to be kept inviolate are nothing more than useful idiots to the scam artists who will be happy to create "carbon trading markets" or some other bullshit confiscatory scheme with the force of government behind it.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:26 | 6633450 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

+1M

 

Great piece of work there, Jack.   Perfect.

 

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:33 | 6633481 alphahammer
alphahammer's picture

Putin is a hero. End the Fed. 9/11 was an inside job done by aliens (grey with big heads and funny eyes) Buy gold.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 21:13 | 6633633 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Touche...

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 02:16 | 6634341 MEAN BUSINESS
MEAN BUSINESS's picture

Alas:

"I'd rather be a tortoise from Galapagos or a span of geological time than be living in these dog years"

Rush / Test For Echo / Dog Years - 1996

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8XP4zW1FEg

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:14 | 6633403 Mad Cow
Mad Cow's picture

 

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:23 | 6633439 logicalman
logicalman's picture

If you lot stop farting, maybe the world will survive!

As Mr. Carlin said 'the planet will be fine, it's humans that are fucked'.

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:21 | 6633431 Au
Au's picture

What a crock of shit article

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:22 | 6633433 Chris Dakota
Chris Dakota's picture

OMG 2.5 yrs of  light rain and warm and it's THE END OF THE WORLD!!!!!!!!!!!

QUICK CALL THE UNITED NATIONS!

AGENDA 21 NOW!!

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 02:23 | 6634353 MEAN BUSINESS
MEAN BUSINESS's picture

Lore, Oh Regional Indian, and Benb are crushed. Please don't rub it in. Agenda 21 @ ZH WeR them.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:30 | 6633443 squid
squid's picture

"This explains why the Sierra Nevada snow pack that provides nearly 30% of the state's water stood at its lowest level in at least 500 years this last winter despite precipitation levels that, while low, still came in above recent record lows."

 

Stopped reading after that.

How in the hell would they know what the snow pack was doing 500 years ago?

Did they use some of Michael E. Mann's hockey stick technology to get that information?

 

That's why I stopped reading.

 

If the situation is bad, you don't have to embellish and make stuff up. Just tell us what you know. I'm really not interested in what you imagine, I have kids to tell me about imaginary things, I don't need that from state-employed so called scientists.

 

Squid

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 21:15 | 6633642 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

And pray tell, when have you ever taken 30 minutes to search out a reputable source as to how they measure it...

Too ignorant or too lazy, your choice..

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 22:22 | 6633847 Pickleton
Pickleton's picture

Because 482 years ago, they were barely trying to make maps of the area, let alone measuring snow packs.  You must be too obsequious to know that tree rings are not definitive snow pack measurements.

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 23:27 | 6634058 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

The onus is on you to show why tree rings among other proxies are not valid. That is the way Science works. You can't just claim it....

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 05:33 | 6634513 MSimon
MSimon's picture

It is up to you to prove that units of sexual congress per year are not a valid proxy. That is the way science works. There are quite a lot of possible proxies and every one is true until proven otherwise.

 

Science. Believe it or else.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 21:48 | 6633744 Herodotus
Herodotus's picture

Spain found and named California in 1533.  That was only 482 years ago, not 500.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 22:44 | 6633919 Cornfedbloodstool
Cornfedbloodstool's picture

er ah something about icecores or some shit.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 23:23 | 6634047 MEAN BUSINESS
MEAN BUSINESS's picture

Dr. Chris Field, lead author IPCC AR5 WG2 speaking at Harvard President's Panel 13APR2015 on California situation. It's in the WG2 report if you really want to dig for the gold : 0

Couldn't get copy URL at time so you'd have to skip to the ~1:20 mark

http://www.harvard.edu/president/news/2015/presidential-panel-on-climate...

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 20:10 | 6637860 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

You wouldn't unless you were there; it is fallacy.  That is why evolution and millions and billions of years fits in the same category.  The only way we can know is if the One who created all of it told us and He did.  All the evil we see increasing and all the hostilities that are ever increasing; He warned us this would and will continue to until He comes to clean up our mess; a familiar theme throughout human history.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 20:25 | 6633448 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Scientific literacy is in short supply, it would seem.

 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!