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Russia Escalates Syria Proxy War: Threatens Full Naval Blockade Of Syria

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Last week, NATO's supreme allied commander for Europe, General Philip Breedlove, suggested that Russia has effectively declared a no-fly zone in Syria. 

That contention was supported by Moscow’s rather bold move to effectively instruct the US-led coalition to keep its planes out of the sky starting last Wednesday. Ultimately, The Kremlin has declared a monopoly on Syrian air space for the duration of Russia’s military campaign, marking an epic embarrassment for Washington, and serving notice to the anti-regime forces operating in Syria that there’s a new sheriff in town. 

Well, don't look now, but in addition to the de facto no-fly zone, some experts are out suggesting that Russia is set to use its Black Sea fleet to enforce a blockade on the Syrian coast. Here's Sputnik:

Russia's Black Sea Fleet may be used in Syria to blockade the Syrian coastline and deliver armaments, as well as possibly deliver artillery strikes, the head of Russian State Duma's defense committee and former Black Sea Fleet commander Vladimir Komoyedov said.

 

"Regarding the large-scale use of the Black Sea Fleet in this operation, I don't think it will happen, but in terms of a coastal blockade, I think that it's quite [possible]. The delivery of artillery strikes hasn't been excluded; the ships are ready for this, but there is no point in it for now. The terrorists are in deep, where the artillery cannot reach," Komoyedov said.

 

Komoyedov added that the size of the naval grouping used in the operation will depend on the intensity of the fighting. He noted that currently, the navy's Mediterranean flotilla is currently sufficient for actions in the given area.

 

Komoyedov also said that auxiliary vessels will certainly be used in the operation against ISIL to deliver armaments as well as military and technical equipment.

Meanwhile, the aerial bombardment continues unabated as Russian warplanes have reportedly destroyed "a terrorist base in the woods" where tanks - which are ironically Soviet made- were stationed. Here's RT:

The Russian Air Force in Syria has conducted 25 sorties on 9 Islamic State installations in the last 24 hours, eliminating a disguised terrorist base equipped with tanks, a command center and a communication hub, the Defense Ministry reported.

 

Russian bombers taking off from Khmeimim airbase knocked out a terrorist base hidden in the woods near the city of Idlib, eliminating 30 vehicles, among which were several Soviet-made T-55 tanks.

 

“Six airstrikes hit the base, and the terrorists’ equipment was fully destroyed,” Konashenkov said. 

And here's the video which purportedly shows the attack on the hidden ISIS base:

While according to Russian weatherwomen, mother nature is smiling on The Kremlin's efforts (via The Guardian):

It’s warm and sunny in Syria – and conditions are perfect for flying fighter jets and launching airstrikes, according to a weather report broadcast on Russian state television. 

 

“Russian aerospace forces are continuing their operation in Syria. Experts say the timing for it was chosen very well in terms of weather,” said the forecaster in a segment aired on Rossiya 24 on Sunday, standing in front of a screen showing a Sukhoi Su-27 fighter jet with the words “flying weather”.

For those wondering how long it would be before an "accident" took place, "inadvertently" pitting Russian fighter planes against NATO, we got the answer on Monday as Turkey scrambled F-16s to the border after Russia allegedly violated Ankara's air space. Here's a bit of color from BBC:

Russia said the incident was a "navigational error" and that it has "clarified" the matter to Ankara.

 

Turkish jets patrolling the border were also "harassed" by an unidentified plane on Sunday, Turkey said.

 

Turkey, a Nato member, has called the Russian strikes a "grave mistake".

 

Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told Turkish TV that the rules of engagement were clear, whoever violates its airspace.

 

"The Turkish Armed Forces are clearly instructed. Even if it is a flying bird, it will be intercepted," he said.

Only, that's not true, because the first time Ankara shoots down a Russian "flying bird", Erdogan will have a real war on his hands and will swiftly discover that while bombing air force-less Kurdish separatists with impunity is easy, dog fights with Russian fighter pilots are not, and just about the last thing Turkey needs with inflation soaring and the lira tumbling and elections looming is to go to war with Russia. 

In any event, the situation is clearly escalating, and as the Russians get more bold with each passing NATO bluff and subsequent fold, the stakes get still higher. As hyperbolic as it may sound, the West is now one Erodgan miscalculation away from open warfare with Russia and Moscow looks to be just days away from enforcing a full naval blockade of what is rapidly becoming a Mid-East Kremlin colony.

 

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Mon, 10/05/2015 - 14:34 | 6632004 flapdoodle
flapdoodle's picture

Blockading the Bosphorus is a trick Turkey can use *once*.

They can even keep it blockaded for a while, but it will probably cost them the Haggia Sophia turned into a parking lot.

In the case of a real war, I don't think Russia would even try to "run" the blockade until they were reasonable certain they could get through (e.g. they basically take control both sides of the strait).

I do have no doubt that NATO has mines and other nasties hidden away in the strait, but I also have no doubt that the Russians know where they are all hidden.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:05 | 6630902 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I'm sure Putin never thought of that possibility since sailing ships through the straits is a very new phenomenon for the Russian Navy.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:28 | 6631015 Poundsand
Poundsand's picture

That choke point is really tight - less than 2000' across with a couple of bridges over it.  Yeah, I can't imagine that in the 100 years or so of sailing through there that they haven't thought long and hard about it. 

If a blockade there is attempted, it would be an act of war.  Russia simply can not allow a large part of it's navy to be locked up like that.  To do so, would be inviting war on a large scale.  Not just proxies.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:33 | 6631049 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

there is a steadily changing wiki article about the key treaty: Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits

interestingly, the current version states that it was the US that recently went against it by passing with "exceedingly armed" navy vessels (Russia complained)

as a reminder, both the US and the UK have always defended this 1936 treaty, then otherwise the Black Sea would be closed to them

nope, the last thing Turkey might want is anything that changes this agreement. it survived WWII and the Cold War

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:28 | 6631013 schadenfreude
schadenfreude's picture

This would escalate things on next level to WWIII

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:55 | 6631155 MadVladtheconquerer
MadVladtheconquerer's picture

Well, look at the bright side:  you'll get much lower stock prices!

And Russian equities woud be available for pennies on the rubble!

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 22:51 | 6633938 gonetogalt
gonetogalt's picture

I see what you did there...

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:44 | 6631100 MadVladtheconquerer
MadVladtheconquerer's picture

And Turkey is part of NATO.  So, if Turkey finds itself in hostilities w/ Vladdy, Vladdy will be facing

US fighter a/c as well as Turkish.  And yes, the Bosporus can be closed and would expected to be in the

event of hostilities btw/ Russia and Turkey/NATO.

As Vicki Sue said:  Love the escalation.  Probably why LMT stock is soaring today.

I miss the Cold War.  Stingers and Manpads anyone!

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 15:23 | 6632178 CWolfRu
CWolfRu's picture

Are you really want to die in agony or just so moron that don't understand what are you talking about?

 

Cold War? Screw you, fag.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 22:26 | 6633857 Joe A
Joe A's picture

NATO's article 5 will be dropped faster than the French can drop their guns. With Erdogan in power in Turkey many of Europe's political elite -apart from many Europeans- are not willing to come to his rescue. They know what kind of game Erdogan is playing.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 22:22 | 6633846 Joe A
Joe A's picture

If they want to turn Istanbul into a smoking pile of rubble.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:05 | 6630891 TalkToLind
TalkToLind's picture

Nevermind Syria. Y'all bitchez should stop typing comments and go get your flu shot. Yeah, and if you end up with a capsule shaped lump under your skin, don't worry about it! That's just the medicine's "delivery system". Shalom.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:05 | 6630900 Bankster Kibble
Bankster Kibble's picture

It's a little soon to be certain that Russia is going to blockade the coast.  This story came from the Duma, not the Kremlin, and I have observed that Duma representatives love to talk in front of a camera and microphone as much as American Congresscritters do.  It could be a trial leak, or it could be speculation on the part of Mr. Komoyedov.  Probably the latter, because he did say "possible," not "certain."

 

That said, Russia is in a good position to do just what Mr. K speculates.  But I'll wait until the Defense Minister or the Prime Minister says something before I'll believe it.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:05 | 6630901 SMC
SMC's picture

“Russia Escalates Syria Proxy War”  ROFL…

Translation:  Russia is doing what is necessary to win.

Just think how angry “Just Us” must be… that a military is not using their products and maximizing their profits.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:10 | 6630916 TicoTiger
TicoTiger's picture

The fearless, invincible head choppers, child rapists and organ eaters are proving to be little more than fish in a barrel against a real military power. Erodgan had better be careful as well or his "forces" will be on the receiving end of a giant turkey shoot. If Russian jets really get serious, I doubt that his "allies" in NATO and USSA will show up for the party.

 

Thanks Mr. Putin for showing us that the modern Khazarian-zombies just can't hack it in the light of day. 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:10 | 6630921 will ling
will ling's picture

vlad is impaling stumpy mccrazy with each passin' minute. POUR IT ON VLAD!

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:17 | 6630948 pupdog1
pupdog1's picture

"General" Breedlove is a warmonger who makes American Neocon warmongers look like cub scouts.

Breedlove shows just how dangerous American taxpayer-funded NATO really is. His dream is to preside over a global conflagration (while watching from a safe distance), and Ash Carter's dream is for his pals to sell weapons to all of the West.

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:23 | 6630989 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

i can't imagine a tougher one two punch than barack obama and ashton carter.  just the combat experience alone . . . .

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:59 | 6631568 agent default
agent default's picture

It is a strange thing with generals.  They always see Patton or Rommel in the mirror.  Never Galtieri or Gamelin. 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 22:20 | 6633837 Joe A
Joe A's picture

Or Petain...

You're right, they are very vain people willing to sacrifice ordinary men and women for their place in the history books.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:18 | 6630962 where_is the_nuke
where_is the_nuke's picture

Nice.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:28 | 6631010 Falling Down
Falling Down's picture

Can't wait to see the convoys of American arms shipments from Turkey into Syria being blown up by Russian jets.

(pops popcorn)

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:29 | 6631020 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

You guys crack me up. Grainy, highly-edited footage of freefall bombs landing in a wooded area somewhere on the planet is absolute proof of Putin's veracity while everything the US says is a lie.

Root on Grandmother Putin all you want but beware of the ultimate consequences. He is twisting the nose of a vain, weak man who is in full control of all the military resources of the United States, and trying to prove that he can out-Barack Barack. I wouldn't count on tame acceptance of this personal insult.

It will take some time for a response to percolate through the pipeline, my guess is about a month, but I do not suppose that the US and the anti-Assadists in the ME are going to back down. One interesting straw in the wind that has already come up is the suggestion that Saudi Arabia has been considering the supply of high-tech anti-air assets to the opposition but has been blocked by the US, which worries about them falling into the wrong hands.

I submit to you that these items are about to fall into what you guys might refer to as the wrong hands-- meaning someone who will point them at Ivan, not someone who will point them at GI Joe. Escalation is proceeding apace on both sides and we will soon start seeing more friction in theater.

One suggestion for you all: Geiger counters are worthless in this type of situation because they saturate under exposure to large radioactive outputs, you must get a war survey meter and/or high range dosimeters. Two weeks of MREs should do for a shelter ration since radioactive decay makes it safe to come out after 14 days in virtually all cases. Don't forget your water and some way of moving filtered air inside your shelter.

Oh, and you're gonna need this as well.

http://www.oism.org/nwss/#Message3444

 

 

 

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:34 | 6631047 NubianSundance
NubianSundance's picture

I think some of the comments here on this type of story is just blowing off steam and anger at the one sided bullshit promulgated by the usual suspects, MSM, that's my 2c.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:44 | 6631102 farflungstar
farflungstar's picture

Your saint Barry von Butthurt won the Nobel Prize so he is reduced to waging war on the sneak, like a scared little boy, via proxies, disinformation, bribes...no massive amount of troop deployments to countries who didn't invite them - yet. 

Leather Barry and his neocon harpies took the route of confrontation, now they act all surprised when they meet some? ISIL we were fighting for a year, these morons complain Russia is taking up the slack?

Your tinfoil hattery mixed with vague threats of impending Armageddon are vey unbecoming.

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:58 | 6631173 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

If you can think of a single instance where opposition has induced President Obama to abandon his plans, I'd be interested in hearing about it. Far from caving, he always digs in and doubles down. Doesn't mean that I approve, just that his M.O. is very consistent and needs to be taken into account. You guys assume the war is over and I suggest that it is barely getting started.

I've done my duty and pointed out that this is going to get worse and there are some valuable information sources you can consult if the need suddenly arises. Most people wouldn't know where to start looking. Now they do.

If you prefer to remain in ignorance and denial, that is okay with me, but at least allow your fellow man the opportunity of choosing thier own informed pathway if they so desire.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:11 | 6631258 MadVladtheconquerer
MadVladtheconquerer's picture

Bardick Oblowme is a raghead, ya know.

 

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:29 | 6631023 magnetosphere
magnetosphere's picture

surely antiaircraft missiles are now on their way to isis?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:31 | 6631032 viator
viator's picture

A Russian SU-30SM fighter will beat a Turkish F-16. Sukhoi SU-30SM fighters are Russia's most advanced fighters and would be a handful for almost any other fighter aircraft. Russia has intercepted and turned back Israeli fighter jets over Syria. I expect the Russians will tell Turkey fine but we don't want any Turkish military planes over Syria bombing Kurds either.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:53 | 6631140 MadVladtheconquerer
MadVladtheconquerer's picture

Except in the event of hostilities w/ Turkey, Vladdy will be facing US F16s and F22s.

Hey!  Maybe we can try out those rotten F35s too!  And we'll see how bad they really aren't!

Time to get that F22 some air-to-air. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_NATO

And the Bosporus will be unavailable.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:00 | 6631191 Cundium
Cundium's picture

Great, US has bigger dick. So take it in you mounth, dumb.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:17 | 6631295 MadVladtheconquerer
MadVladtheconquerer's picture

Ahem, I think taking it from the other end is what you're getting at...

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:17 | 6631296 MadVladtheconquerer
MadVladtheconquerer's picture

Ahem, I think taking it from the other end is what you're getting at...

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:39 | 6631777 datura
datura's picture

Except in the event of hostilities with Russia in Syria, Turkey's F16 and F22 will be facing the Russian S-400. Good luck with that! 

 

The U.S. and its allies can’t even carry out the air reconnaissance of the Russian Federation forces now. A source in military circles of the American military in Turkey reported that NATO aircraft, trying to get close to the forces of the Russian Federation, has been identified by radar, and the source of the radar could not even be traced.

The Russians have indicated that they can see everything, and getting closer is not worth it, otherwise it will be shot down“, – said the American military. Frankly we were surprised by the air defense system of Russia, most likely there are the latest systems S-400. I have no other ideas,” – said Colonel Jack Jacobs.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 14:40 | 6632026 blentus
blentus's picture

Are you retarded?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:30 | 6631379 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

There are Mig 31s, and Mig 29s in Syria already. There is more than enough interceptor power to deal with Turkey, let alone with a hige anti aircraft infrastructure which has not even been lit up.

Let's get real. This was for the West was a dead end from day one, and Russia has made the trip alot shorter for them, unless they want to start WW3.

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:32 | 6631038 fowlerja
fowlerja's picture

Taking a clue from America..the Russians film their bombing runs for public media consumption ...good weather helped film the mushroom bomb drop...very nicely done by the Russian public affairs department..if this keeps up IS.IS is going from a present tense verb to past tense...WAS.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:32 | 6631043 nnnnnn
nnnnnn's picture

 

 

the west is provoking a ww3 in any possible way

no matter how i look at syria iraq, it looks like its a big trap for the begin of a global war in combination with reformation of world finance system

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:34 | 6631056 KCMLO
KCMLO's picture

Wow, this is unfolding way faster than I thought.  The fact that Russia was able to indentify and strike THIRTY vehicles really underlines (publicly) how incredibly bullshit the US airstrikes in Syria have been.

Of course the US will claim said vehicles belong to anti-Assad forces and not ISIS (otherwise we would have hit them right?). 

The best thing the Russians could do is to constantly, and publicly supply their intel (bomb cams, surveillance feeds, etc) to show they're actually striking Al-Nusra and ISIS.  Even more egg on the face of this charlatan administration.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:55 | 6631153 Newspeaktogo
Newspeaktogo's picture

Gotta give you 10 more up arrows for that one.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:42 | 6631093 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

If the US just had TRUMP as Prez the MIC would be unleashed and it would be fucking on. Be careful what you wish for it's just an election away.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:48 | 6631110 NubianSundance
NubianSundance's picture

The reason there are cutbacks in US forces is precisely because the money is running out to pay for all these fancy 50 billion dollar aircraft carriers as I'm sure you are aware.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:33 | 6631743 researchfix
researchfix's picture

Which will be sunk 30 minutes after they are called a threat.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:52 | 6631125 farflungstar
farflungstar's picture

Except that it would be unleashed to destroy ISIS. Trump is straight up not a fan of ISIS and has shown willingness to work with Putin, not these skumbag headchoppers and thugs.

No one has any use for ISIS right now except for asshole AmeriKans...oops and GCC monarchies along with israel and Turkey, all great allies of ours who can't be bothered just openly invading Syria and getting rid of Assad themselves, not sure why, maybe they're scared?

Russia is destroying terrorists...I can't believe anyone at all would be crying about it, but Americunts and their media sure are, albeit in a roundabout way.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 11:56 | 6631161 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

The last time I saw a clip of Trump talking about Syria and Pootin, Trump believes, "... Mr. Pootin is a nice person but he is going to bog down in Syria."  Stay tuned for tomorrow, Pootin may declare a no fly zone over Syria and that will be it for the intwerwebs and my cozy life in the woods.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:01 | 6631198 Moribundus
Moribundus's picture

Six Russian fighter jets type Multirole Sukhoi SU – 30 SM have intercepted 4 Israeli McDonnell Douglas F-15’s fighter bombers attempting to infiltrate the Syrian coast.The Israeli F 15 warplanes have been flying over Syrian airspace for months and in particular the coast of Latakia, which is now the bridgehead of the Russian forces in Syria.

 

The Israeli jets would generally follow a fairly complex flight plan and approach Latakia from the sea.

 

On the night of 1 October 02, 2015, six Sukhoi SU-30 Russian SM fighters took off from the Syrian Hmimim airbase in the direction of Cyprus, before changing course and intercepting the four Israeli F-15 fighters off the coast of Syria, that were flying in attack formation.

 

Surprised by a situation as unexpected and probably not prepared for a dogfight with one of the best Russian multipurpose fighters, Israeli pilots have quickly turned back South at high speed over the Lebanon.

 

The Lebanese army has officially announced at 2313 Z (local time) that four “enemy aircraft” (Israeli) had crossed the airspace of the Lebanon.

 

This ‘incident’ between the Russian and Israeli combat aircraft struck with amazement the command of the Israeli air force, which has estimated that a possible dogfight between F-15 Israelis and the Russian Su-30 would have led to the destruction of the four aircraft Israelis.

 

Israel has strongly protested to Moscow of the incident but the Russians demanded explanations about the presence of Israeli military aircraft in full Syrian airspace.

 

This incident indicates that the protection of Syrian airspace is now under the protection of the Russian air weapon. What causes gnashing of teeth in Washington.

 

The incident has been ignored by major news agencies but relays political and media of Israel in the United States, Europe and in the Arab world will redouble their efforts to demonize the Russian support for the Syrian Government.

 

Source: www.liveleak.com

 

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:27 | 6631367 Volkodav
Volkodav's picture

never confirmed   accepted as fake

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:01 | 6631202 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

Go ahead Erdogan, knock that battery off of Putin's shoulder.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:02 | 6631209 anachronism
anachronism's picture

The Black Sea Fleet has been supporting Assad's government in significant ways for at least 2 tears. Back in 2013, the ships were deployed in order to jam and misdirect whatever cruise missiles that the USNavy might launch. Now the possibility of using its own cruise missiles against anti-Assad forces comes up. But this is only for show. Why waste a half million dollar weapon on a fixed target that doesn't have any air defense capability?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:54 | 6631839 Freddie
Freddie's picture

I would love to know what capabilities the Russian ships have and planes.  We all heard the USS Donald Cook story.  The Russians supposedly have some

 

Is it this KRET jammer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ifayCpCo0k

Or this:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3151339/Russia-claims-dev...

I think it might be almost like a microwave pulse that would fry a Tomahawk.

Russian female cadets jumping out of jets at 380 kmh.  Pretty girls.  I bet many were terrified.  I would be pissing in my pants.   Russia looks like America about 80 years ago. America is feral now with white males worshiping their Trayvon thug ball players.

Russia has really advanced since Putin.  They have a leader who supports his people and country. Everyone in the US Govt f**ks over Americans.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeQqv95kq9A

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 15:02 | 6632102 spyware-free
spyware-free's picture

The state-of-the-art Russian electronic warfare system Krasukha-4 has reportedly been deployed in Syria.

http://sputniknews.com/world/20151005/1028033057/syria-russia-electronic...

"The system has a range of 300 kilometers and is designed to counter airborne early warning and control systems and other airborne radar arrays.

The Krasukha-4's range allows it to effectively disrupt low Earth orbit satellites and cause permanent damage to targeted radio-electronic devices. Ground-based radars are also a viable target for the Krasukha-4 system."

This is part of the reason why Russian AA batteries are so effective. They can see you but you can't see them.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:05 | 6633135 MSimon
MSimon's picture

The inverse square law might dispute some of your assertions.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 19:04 | 6633128 MSimon
MSimon's picture

The evidence available does not support the Donald Cook story. The ship never changed its planned itinerary and US sailors can not resign.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:23 | 6631327 rejected
rejected's picture

The Vietnam Song... applies here too.

and its 1,2,3 what are we fightin for?

don't ask me i don't give a dam, the next stop is Vietnam,

and its 5,6,7 open up the pearly gates. Well there aint no time to wonder why...WHOPEE we're all gunna die.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7Y0ekr-3So

 

But hey,,, you'll be employed..................... that is until you die.

Take this Vietnam veteran's word for it,,, you ain't fightin for freedom, justice, and the American way!

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:18 | 6631668 smacker
smacker's picture

Obola: "Hey Mr Putin!  Stop bombing ISIS. They might be terrorists, but they're "our" terrorists."

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:12 | 6631255 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

With Russia’s Dep. Army Chief due in Israel, Moscow posts 64 S-300 ship-to-air missiles off Syria, N. Israel


http://debka.com/article/24929/With-Russia%E2%80%99s-Dep-Army-Chief-due-...
Mon, 10/05/2015 - 16:59 | 6632553 monk27
monk27's picture

Interesting ! I wouldn't be so sure that the F-22, a few of which we have already sent there, is so immune to an S-300 shot... The Russians had a long time to plan for it.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:13 | 6631268 TAALR Swift
TAALR Swift's picture

The part that is taking up a fair bit of my analysis time, are the various scenarios that involve southern Lebanon and southern Syria.

As long as Hezbollah stays away from Israel, and directs its energies towards real estate in southern Syria (retake land from ISIS and other Rebel forces), there is little chance that its southerly neighbor will do more than covet the greener pastures to the north.  Perhaps this is where many Palestinians could resettle to, to get out of the concentration camp that is Gaza?

In an arid land, he who controls the water, controls everything.  (Otherwise you're left with having to use nuclear reactors to power desalination plants).

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:22 | 6631692 Rhett72
Rhett72's picture

They should resettle in Jaffa (ie "Tel Aviv"), their home.  Most of the Gaza refugees were expelled from there by the Israelis in 1948.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 14:10 | 6631903 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Israel loves to see Hezbollah spill it's blood on other Arabs. Israel will stay out of the action as long as possible. I would anyway.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:13 | 6631272 Moribundus
Moribundus's picture

Russia "Violated" Turkish Airspace Because Turkey "Moved" Its Border.

http://www.moonofalabama.org/

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:53 | 6631525 rejected
rejected's picture

Excellent. Everyone should read the article.

Most also seem to forget the Turks invaded Syrian airspace in the past and the Israelis tried it just last week.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:16 | 6631284 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture
Chinese warplanes to join Russian air strikes in Syria. Russia gains Iraqi air base
 http://debka.com/article/24926/Chinese-warplanes-to-join-Russian-air-str...
Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:21 | 6631323 MadVladtheconquerer
Mon, 10/05/2015 - 17:00 | 6632565 monk27
monk27's picture

WaPo ? Really ?? LOL!!!

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:23 | 6631331 NubianSundance
NubianSundance's picture

Saw that too, but another poster viewing Suez canal traffic says only Chinese oil tankers have passed through recently. Of course Chinese warplanes can fly with refuelling via Iraq/Iran but its quite a route. PS US relies on Russian airspace permission to reach Afghanistan. It can get round it via Pakistan but much more dicey is that route.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:29 | 6631374 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

You cannot totally predict Armed Forces Operations by any World Power.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:27 | 6631365 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

The US creates the Mess, Russian and China clean it up.

These Ziocons or whatever, seek to control the Entire World like Hitler.

Too bad not everyone agrees with you.

American Citizens need to strike these dual-nationals and imprison them.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:01 | 6631584 Lucky Leprachaun
Lucky Leprachaun's picture

At a minimum ensuring no dual-citizens having power in the GOvernment or security apparatus.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:50 | 6631503 rejected
rejected's picture

debka is an Israeli mouthpiece. While their articles have some truth, much propaganda is passed if one reads between the lines.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:56 | 6631543 Volkodav
Volkodav's picture

do not trust debka

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 14:52 | 6632064 Deathstar
Deathstar's picture

The kikeistanis are NOT to be trusted in ANY form.

 

They actually teach their children that it is ok and righteous to lie to and exploit the goy in any form.

This is verifiable FACT.

 

Remember Kikerberg say facebook users were dumb fucks?

-A prime example

 

Needless to say I immediately erased all posts and deleted the account.

 

Fuck the kikes!

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:16 | 6631286 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

If you think according to standard strategy, The Russians, like any other country woulld seek to control airspace and protect their assets. War 101.

Syria asked the RF for help. The RF will not tolerate any threats against their forces, the same as the Us , French, or British would.

These incursions by ZATO and Israel need to stop: The RF Federations has given FAIR WARNING.

The Perfidy of the Anglo-Zionist Powers is on full display. They want a Globalist Empire. The SCO and Russia want National Self-Determination! Is that not what the US went to war over the UK with?

The USG is controlled by Terrorists and Gangsters. They MUST be eliminated!

The Actions of ZATO are in complete Violation of the UN Charter.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 14:49 | 6632056 Deathstar
Deathstar's picture

ZATO  

 

LMAO   NICE!

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 17:39 | 6632704 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

IS not National Aspiration and Independence in The UN Charter?

FUCK the US and its Colonial Owners.

ZIONISM is Racism!

Although the UN seeks Power beyond its manifest, ALL countries have the Right of Self-Determination.
Syria elected Assasd. For the US to try and overthrow him makes me an Enemy of the USG.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:19 | 6631299 Mike Masr
Mike Masr's picture

 

https://theintercept.com/2015/10/03/one-day-after-warning-russia-of-civi...

Yesterday afternoon, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power marched to Twitter to proclaim: “We call on Russia to immediately cease attacks on Syrian opposition and civilians.” Along with that decree, she posted a statement from the U.S. and several of its closest authoritarian allies — including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the U.K. — warning Russia that civilian casualties “will only fuel more extremism and radicalization.”

Early this morning, in the Afghan city of Kunduz, the U.S. dropped bombs on a hospital run by Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF)). The airstrike killed at least nine of the hospital’s medical staff, and seriously injured dozens of patients. “Among the dead was the Afghan head of the hospital, Abdul Sattar,” reported the New York Times.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:21 | 6631320 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Samantha Power needs some dick, which she is obviously NOT getting at home.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:59 | 6631564 Lucky Leprachaun
Lucky Leprachaun's picture

SHe was ok until that bastard Sunstein banged her up.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 14:14 | 6631933 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Sunstein (Zionist) hied some trucker to fuck her.

Who would toch that dry fucked up cunt?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:43 | 6631792 farflungstar
farflungstar's picture

The AmeriKan political class has turned into a gaggle of crazed, lying Communist cunts defending lowlives pretending to be freedom fighters and its media has become Pravda. 

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:21 | 6631316 Duc888
Duc888's picture

I just think it's kinda funny that after the three hour meeting at the UN with PUTIN and Obummer, that the USA completely capitulated re: Ukraine.

We've completely backed down.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:24 | 6631341 jtg
jtg's picture

As we should.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 17:29 | 6631334 SSRI Junkie
SSRI Junkie's picture

---->obola is love

---->iran is taking over syria

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:27 | 6631362 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

NATO is pure unadulterated BS. 

If NATO had any moral gumption it would stop Turkey constantly threatening Greece and causing unrest amongst the Muslim monorities in Greece.

Bottom line though is that both the US and Russia have bombs to send us to Mars first class.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:29 | 6631376 Moribundus
Moribundus's picture

The representative of the Euphrates Volcano command of the FSA and the Kurdish YPG told Sputnik that the command supports Russia's operation against ISIL and requests military help.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20151005/1028038570/syria-fsa-command-asks-russia-for-help.html#ixzz3niBAMsfG

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:31 | 6631384 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture
A  pastiche of the Protocols of the Elders of Zion

. . . by Arch Stanton 

“Our aims succeed according to plan!”

"Perfect! It is perfect! Our aims proceed according to plan almost exactly as we envision. The stupid goyim slowly hang by the rope we sold them!

It will not be long before we can start culling the goyim herds in earnest. They have paid for their own destruction; they have paid for the gas chambers we built for them in the FEMA camps. Our terrible fantasy will soon become their reality. Again and again, they always forget.....

http://www.darkmoon.me/


Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:36 | 6631414 jtg
jtg's picture

Why would Russia blockade the Syrian coast?

From who or what? Is NATO going to invade Syria from the sea?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:43 | 6631453 rejected
rejected's picture

Arms shipments to the five "freedom" fighters from their supporters...

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:36 | 6631417 Moribundus
Moribundus's picture

Who has stronger arguments Obama v. Putin: 

http://cs625731.vk.me/v625731139/48a1a/-tgwjYYfz4k.jpg

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:41 | 6631447 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture
Are the Israelis trying to provoke WWIII? It looks like it. Maybe they want to force the US into taking reckless action on their behalf…

http://www.darkmoon.me/

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:55 | 6631531 Lucky Leprachaun
Lucky Leprachaun's picture

"Maybe they want to force the US into taking reckless action on their behalf…"

How could you even suggest such a thing.  Naughty!

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:44 | 6631470 Deathstar
Deathstar's picture

Fuck the UN

Fuck NATO

Fuck the Trilateral Comission

Fuck Bilderberg

Fuck CFR

Fuck isreal

Fuck the drug dealing CIA and their paid muslim minions

Fuck the shitskin in chief

Fuck the democraps (commies)

Fuck the repukelicans (fascists)

Fuck the MSM

and fuck the kikes behind it all!

 

GO PUTIN!!!!

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:48 | 6631491 Lucky Leprachaun
Lucky Leprachaun's picture

Russia is in Syria at the invitation of the legally recognized Government. The ZIoCons/NATO have no legal or moral basis for objecting to a Russian/Syrian no fly zone.  I just love to see this happening.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:53 | 6631519 Element
Element's picture

Firstly:

Russian Navy would be toast if they fired on a western jet operating over Syria. There will be aircraft all over that region sitting in aircraft shelters with anti-ship weapons and anti runway weapons on wings, ready to go, and the eastern med filled a few dozen high performance western submarines with torpedoes and anti ship weapons already tracking and ready to go.

So that's pretty much out.

Secondly, the countries around Syria have some spectacularly capable long range SAMs and sensors, especially around South west, Northern and Southern Syria. The range of their sensors and missiles is much further than people think, (the PAC3s alone have about three times the range of the Patriot long-range SAM of Gulf War 1, and lot of Syrian airspace will be covered by multiple types of long range overlapping SAMs.

Thirdly:

Same apples to long range naval SAMS of the various neighbor countries navies, who all have some very impressive naval SAMS as well, plus of course very capable anti ship weapons, including missiles, guns, torpedoes and advanced sea mines, plus naval spec forces. For some reason people in here seem to think these don't exist.

Fourthly:

Every country in the immediate region, including those in Europe, will either be flying regular air patrols, or will have jets with pilots sitting in cockpits with air to air missiles and fuel on wings, as you read this, ready to launch oh, maybe about 1,500 fighters, as necessary, the moment any western jet is attacked by Russian ships or aircraft, over Syria.

Fifthly:

As for the bombing, good luck to them, I mean that. At least they're attacking targets outside of the urban areas. Maybe they'll use helicopters with guided missiles for the urban fight, but I suspect unguided rockets and cannons will be the tool they use. Except MANPADS are sure to dissuade that pretty quick. So then they'll still be left with the need to use more expensive newer standoff weapons from higher altitudes with good Intel. And I suspect that is where they are really going to struggle, both with costs, and effects, and with suitable targeting Intel. Alternatively they just attack with barrel-bombs, and Iron bombs.

Well, you can imaging what the media will do with that, and they will say Putin is no better than Assad. They may then discover themselves the operational, practical and media real-politic reasons for why the West has been limiting even its precision attacks. And if ISIS goes to ground they can do what the Vietnamese did, ride it out, out wait them, bog them down, embarrass them and attrite them.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:56 | 6631539 Deathstar
Deathstar's picture

Let me guess....

 

 

You fist bump and chant USA! USA!

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:58 | 6631548 Element
Element's picture

It's called disinterested analysis dumbfuck pootie troll.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:08 | 6631606 Deathstar
Deathstar's picture

Why don't you start ANALyzing the CIA and their drug dealing  Air America unit...  well, that's too easy.

 

Try ANALyzing why america is the #1 top terrorist organization operating under the guise of "spreading democracy and freedom" and wrapping it in a flag and delivering by eagle...

 

When in fact it is to steal gold for the banksters, secure oil rights for big oil from installed puppet regimes, place military bases to the next plundering and to foment "controlled chaos" in order to control....

Oh, the list is too much to mention.

 

 

Well, that may be too hard for you.

 

Go back to your chanting USA USA USA!  It serves you best.

 

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:13 | 6631639 Element
Element's picture

I'm busy with this right now, but I'll get right on it after that, thanks for the tip.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 14:51 | 6632063 blentus
blentus's picture

You call it disinterested analysis, but it actually looks just like a huge pile of shit.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 14:49 | 6632058 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

let me guess, you don't have a single counter to everything that's been mentioned in this analysis... I can only assume it's because his analysis is correct, and you know, so now it's time to misdirect and shit all over everything...

oh by the way... *fist bump* USA! USA! ... bitchez

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 15:57 | 6632305 corsair
corsair's picture

His "analysis" is partly straw-man, partly non-sequitur (which BTW is his usual style).

Each of his "points" can easily be debunked, but it's really not worth the effort.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 21:19 | 6633654 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

yeah, I get it, you can't debunk them so you pretend they're easy to debunk instead... you're lazy, but please carry on...

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:07 | 6631605 smacker
smacker's picture

From what you say, the Russians are not achieving anything and should go home immediately to avoid being wiped out at any moment.

I wonder then, why it is that Washington and Westminster and their allies in MSM and elsewhere are wringing their sweaty hands and have resorted to making nasty public speeches about the Russians bombing terrorists in Syria?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:21 | 6631686 Element
Element's picture

We will see.  ;-)

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 22:15 | 6633826 trulz4lulz
trulz4lulz's picture

A human cannot be a human when it relies on its masters mindset.

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 04:15 | 6634450 Element
Element's picture

Why the hell would you want to accept a 'master' in any form?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:34 | 6631747 silverer
silverer's picture

Do you have lunch with John McCain?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:36 | 6631760 Volkodav
Volkodav's picture

bored

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:51 | 6631827 researchfix
researchfix's picture

Seems you are in your element. Like a pig in the dirt.

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 15:25 | 6632185 spyware-free
spyware-free's picture

Yes yes. We know. Russia would be obliterated if the US and their allies wanted to. Russia telling them you have 1 hour to get the fuck out of Syria and the US complying to that demand is proof of that.
If instead you said that NATO would retaliate to Russia downing a NATO jet by bombing hospitals and weddings your bullshit might be a tad more believable.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 15:27 | 6632190 CWolfRu
CWolfRu's picture

Salo confirmed, now leave away you 2-colored blind mess.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 12:55 | 6631538 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

"Last week, NATO's supreme allied commander for Europe, General Philip Breedlove, suggested that Russia has effectively declared a no-fly zone in Syria"

No, no! That is not true. I posted that fact over 48 hours ago and I was told by our Israeli friend that "Jack Burton is full of shit".

Along with other attacks on my sources and knowledge. Why is it when my posts are proven true by later evidence, that the fucker Trolls stay away and we don't hear from them.

I said my sources in Russia told me about the No Fly Zone! Yes, I have a source, in 2015 it is not hard to get and keep sources all over the world.

So "Troll " from Israel, "Iwas right", and "you are still a cunt!"

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:12 | 6631623 Element
Element's picture

You realize all prior no-fly zones related to UN Security Council approval of an agreed mandate in order to apply one?

A unilaterally imposed no-fly zone, directed or used against Western jets, is called an air to air battle.

And yes, you are slopping around a wheelbarrow full of runny bullshit.

Another rumor is not confirmation of policy.

And given your penchant for being a mouthpiece for Russian ultra-nationalists I'm not at all surprised that to them you're a useful idiot.  But thanks for clearing that up!  lol

You're welcome.  :D

 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:31 | 6631728 silverer
silverer's picture

Whatever.  But the UN doesn't represent me.  And the representatives that are supposed to represent me don't either, and they put the UN together.  So they just make this shit up.  It doesn't make any of it legitimate. 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:31 | 6631729 Volkodav
Volkodav's picture

Syria is sovereign nation to declare own no-fly.

Requested Russian assist....so there

nothing to do with UN 

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 14:09 | 6631902 Element
Element's picture

Try to follow it.

Iraq was attacked by ISIS and large parts of it overrun and sacked, people mass-murdered.

The Attacker claims to have setup an unrecognized state in the failed-state-like parts of Syria.

And alliance allied to Iraq invoked the right to collective self-defense, and attacked ISIL's alleged state within the uncontrolled portion of Syria.

They did not attack the Syrian State or its forces, at all.

They attacked the part which the Syrian Govt was no longer in control of.

It was also an attack on the enemies of that Syrian state's people, and thus was providing collective self-defense to the Syrian people as well.

The law does not require permission of the state in that circumstance.

That is the basic argument.

Take it up with them if you disagree.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 15:13 | 6632140 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

LMAO. They attacked the part which the Syrian Govt was no longer in control of. ???? Really? Is that why Russia has so many ISIS and other extreme militant targets to bomb - because we attacked them already?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 15:37 | 6632237 Element
Element's picture

Why don't you go to the US DOD website and have a look at the detailed strike stats they have listed there. You can contact them and tell them how much they suck at bombing ISIS, and offer them some free sage advice.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 16:03 | 6632332 spyware-free
spyware-free's picture

.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 16:04 | 6632337 spyware-free
spyware-free's picture

"Why don't you go to the US DOD website and have a look at the detailed strike stats they have listed there. You can contact them and tell them how much they suck at bombing ISIS, and offer them some free sage advice."

You sound offended. Defending your bosses I see. Wake up. They're not as loyal to you as you are to them.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 16:19 | 6632410 Anunnaki
Anunnaki's picture

lies, damned lies and statistics

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 16:18 | 6632405 Volkodav
Volkodav's picture

only in your head plays that way

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 15:10 | 6632128 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

You realize all prior no-fly zones related to UN Security Council approval of an agreed mandate in order to apply one?

Yeah right!  Just like the USA had "UN Security Council Approval" to implement numerous no-fly zones over Iraq before the war there in 2003.  It's bad enough you are a Troll but at least try to get your facts straight.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 15:34 | 6632223 corsair
corsair's picture

General Philip Breedlove, suggested that Russia has effectively declared a no-fly zone in Syria

Element: all prior no-fly zones related to UN Security Council approval of an agreed mandate

Is English your native language?

effectively - actually but not officially or explicitly

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 16:02 | 6632314 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

time to split some cunt hairs...

No fly zones are historically "related" to UNSC resolutions.  However, that does not mean that they are not unilaterally imposed w/o UNSC consultation (e.g. the Northern & Southern Iraq observer zones).  One key to being a successful hegemon is being able to take the ball you're "given" and run with it...  

If Putin wanted to stoop to the level of the USSA, he could unilaterally impose and enforce a no-fly zone over Syria in support of UNSCR 2139 (it's not like the US armed forces didn't just admit to bombing the fuck out of humanitarian aid givers).

What's good for the goose is good for the gander.  The fact that some (most???) of the locals would cheer on someone stooping to Uncle Sam's level is another matter.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 22:23 | 6633850 Element
Element's picture

Yes, but look at the forces he has, to the forces he faces. At a minimum the IDF and also probably Turkey would order long range SAMs on alert and waltz in with their jets and start a fight and the F-22A would show up about three seconds later and that would be the end of that. The air base would be under about 100 very large craters within the hour. And an outright attack on Assad, Iranians and also on ISIS would commence thereafter. Any Russian ships that want to hang about or make and issue will not last more than a few minutes if they fire. This is not to say Putin is not dumb enough of belligerent enough to try it, just that no one will be respecting any no-fly assertions he makes, and the outcome will be predictable. A cold war v2.O will be on 1952 style, at that point.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 22:28 | 6633861 Rock On Roger
Rock On Roger's picture

How can a F-22A make 100 very large craters?

 

You're a shill for zion.

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 04:47 | 6634474 Element
Element's picture

Who the hell said the F-22 would do that? ... not me ... oh, you just did!

I'm tremendously flattered though that you persistently think my little remarks here are so capable, so well-informed and internationally influential as to warrant special payment by a state on the other side of the planet. Unfortunately I'd only ever work for the Commonwealth of Australia, but I'm a bit of a square peg for a round hole, and they can't afford me.  :D

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 10:31 | 6635311 Rock On Roger
Rock On Roger's picture

you wrote this

 

"the F-22A would show up about three seconds later and that would be the end of that. The air base would be under about 100 very large craters within the hour."

 

Your remarks are contradictory and narcissistic.

And full of shit too.

Wed, 10/07/2015 - 06:46 | 6638787 Element
Element's picture

Petty russian troll looks for fault, can't find one, so must pretend he did.  hahaha  :D

And I love the 'logic', for even if you were not just contriving total horseshit, your conclusion is what? I therefore must be? A "shill for zion".  ROFLMAO!  :D

You totally nailed me dude!  hahaha!

I can see your point!!!  :D

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 05:12 | 6634505 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

I think that is an unrealistic scenario.  As long as Assad is in power, the Russians are in Syria by lawful invitation, and Syria is a sovereign State.  In terms of (local) TPTB's hierarchy of needs, right after self preservation, and an adjunct of it- is no public humiliation and supplication to another power.  No one (in the neighborhood) wants to initiate an act of war against the Russians (who are lawfully in the sovereign State of Syria right now) for fear of real (non nuclear) retaliation.  Erdogan can unify his base and divide the opposition by picking on the Kurds, but with the push of a button (that was programmed long ago in Crimea), all the Turkish installations along the Bosporus are history, and so is Erodgan's reign (not to mention exposing NATO Article 5 as actually being "voluntary" since no one wants to actually play the strategic nuclear card).  Even the Nutty Yahoo wouldn't want to go there, because he would have only two non-nuclear options as a next step 1) a very public supplication and mea culpa before Vlad combined with very large compensation payments to the families of the fallen, or 2) the destruction of the Israeli facilities and machinery that make up his rather shallow bench.  

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 06:40 | 6634604 Element
Element's picture

Nuttyhoo and Erdogan are not exactly exemplars of cool-heads. They both tend to over react and get vehement with threats.

Nutty sees Iran as a genuine strategic threat and they are more than capable of eliminating the Russian influence that's providing cover for Iran to expand their combat forces up to the Golan. They're more than sufficiently equipped to both wipe out the Russian air and naval forces in minutes, and to defend themselves with a multi-tiered missile defense. And too strike back in kind at any necessary level.

And frankly Russians providing cover for Iran is quite sufficient provocation to send nutty over the top and go for a preemption here.

Erdogan is as much an ultra-nationalist as Putin is. He knows Washington is firmly backing his stance re the two armed Russian strike aircraft intrusions. If anything Erdogan is even more hot-headed than nutty and more likely to shoot down Russian fighters with no further notice, and engage in air and naval battles. I get the feeling he'd like to do just that.

The Turks definitely want Assad and the Russians and Iran gone from Syria, just as much as anyone else does.

The US and UK do too.

Saudi's and GCC do too.

I don't think any of them are as scared of Russia or Russian forces as you think.

And both Turkey and Israel have extremely capable militaries and excellent SAM defenses and very modern naval forces and one of them has its own nuclear weapons, and the other has about 65 US B-61 tac-nukes stored at Incirlik air base - right now.

If it kicks-off the Saudis and GCC will provide support, as would the US and NATO, to either Israel or to Turkey. The Saudis are itching to do this and I suspect the Americans are ready to fully back Israel or Turkey if a fight starts.

Russia is as exposed at any other state here, and it holds a weak and tenuously exposed military position.

And looking at the overall situation, the best outcome here for Washington and NATO is for Israel to take out the Russians, rather than for Turkey to do it.

That said, it is entirely possible that Saudi Arabia preempts either of them, as it also has a very strong air force, excellent weapons and a top-shelf SAM defense system. Again, not exactly exemplars of cool-heads.

So as I see it the Russians is very close to getting zapped in Syria. It may happen, it may not, we'll see. But the risk of it is very real for Russia.

Feel free to expound other views, I'd like to hear what you have to say.

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 08:25 | 6634786 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Fortunately, neither Nuttyhoo nor Erdogan can actually operate a missile battery, and as bad as some of their "war mongering" advisors are, the few I know are more coldly calculating than Tricky Dick.  Looking at history, it is generally some freshman bench warmer proxy with dated equipment vs the varsity, with a few notable exceptions like Sarajevo airport, where cooler heads at NATO prevented war mongering Wesley Clark from starting WW3.  As many generals as Erdogan has retired or jailed, it still takes substantial time to fail an utterly inept and idealouge psychopath all the way up to the general staff of an established institutional military, although looking at my calendar (which isn't on Bibi's Tehran Nuke Time) it's close but still probably a few years off.

From a technical standpoint, both sides like to tout their anti-missile capabilities, but they only like publishing the results of testing them versus the dated equipment of the bench warmer proxies, and without all the SEAD tools that can be brought to into play (short of anti-satellite, at which point blind nuclear powers would might fall victim to their own paranoia).  

1 Russian sub in the med with cruise missiles can literally shut down Israel, laying waste to its water and oil processing capacities, and preventing resupply, and thus restricting the ability of the IDF to project force on even an intermediate basis into either southern Lebanon or the Palestinian territories, which seems to me would be a non-starter for the IDF general staff.    The head of the current head of the House of Saud would roll if its export oil capacity was attacked, on the other hand KSA is one of the countries where an utterly inept and idealouge psychopath could already have failed all the way to the general staff (or simply been placed their on the whim of a corrupt absolute monarch, since the the institution of the MoD is politically weak).  Turkey is the most complicated, both virtue of history (military and the perpetual East-West pivots) and NATO membership.  But I don't see that Russia can avoid a full military response if it is attacked, otherwise the Black Sea fleet is landlocked.

Of course, all this is predicated on TPTB being rational (and into greed and self preservation).  If they are actually insane, then all bets are off... (For the dimmer wits of the peanut gallery... insane means they do not engage in rational thought and planning, however amoral, and thus they are not greedy, and they have no secret long term plan to oppress and destroy you.)

BTW - how much do we actually know about the location of this Russian incursion?  Was it an incursion into Turkey proper, or that part of northern Syria that Erdogan's (and Langley's) proxies are currently occupying...  I haven't seen any of the Foggy Bottom spokebitches releasing Google Earth images with big red X's... so I don't really know what to think yet...    

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 09:12 | 6634895 Element
Element's picture

Some tangential food for thought:

http://www.albawaba.com/news/prince-most-saudi-princes-favor-coup-749912

The 'incursion' will be a radar log track that we'll never be seeing.

The Russians admitted to the first one. I haven't heard comment on the second one.

Re the Russian sub, that was the first thing I thought of, and the obvious deterrent to doing it, but one the Israelis have put a vast effort into defeating. In the end the sub will run out of missiles, and it has to get back through choke points. I guarantee you they won't make it through alive. So it cuts both ways, the kikes have the subs and SLCM options too. Plus you can bet the USN is all over the SSN and SSGNs and feeding the data to Israel in near real time to cue threat vectors.

As for SEAD, I don't think they have anywhere near enough in the area to be effective and the SAMs have a very good chance of defeating SEAD weapons, the Russians are not even slightly stealthy, they rely on speed and the Israeli and US systems were designed for that. And you can be sure fighters will be all over any SEAD aircraft early and destroy them. Frankly, taking out the Pantsirs and destroying the runway-taxiway and fuel and munitions is not going to take long.

Tue, 10/06/2015 - 15:29 | 6635730 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

I don't quite know what to make of the coup rumors, are they coming from Turki (the Sudairi, and the current King's full blood brother, not the Diplo-Spook) or one of his kids, or a new "reform or die" player... If it's really 80% support then "all it takes is one man willing..." and there is precedent here (Faisal).

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 16:17 | 6632401 Anunnaki
Anunnaki's picture

How do you explain Obama's bombing of Syria? American Excepitonalism. Meaning they are excepted to be expected to follow the UN rules?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:00 | 6631572 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

"Russia's Black Sea Fleet may be used in Syria to blockade the Syrian coastline and deliver armaments, as well as possibly deliver artillery strikes"

Since the most vital lands in Syria are coastal lands, ports and airfields, all within range of naval gunfire and missile attack, a Russian Naval presence off the coast, able to send in artillery support to the Syrian Arab Army would be a giant plus for Syria. Naval support is much cheap than air strikes and there is little risk.

And as for the Israeli troll. Yes, I was in the Navy so I know how it works. You little cunt!

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:05 | 6631599 David Wooten
David Wooten's picture

O/T sorta.  Some reports have it that the Oregon shooter, Chris Harper Mercer, was on a Russian terrorist watchlist and tried to enter Syria recently.

 

http://www.eutimes.net/2015/10/oregon-mass-shooter-on-terror-list-obama-...

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 15:07 | 6632117 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

. . . the Oregon shooter, Chris Harper Mercer . . .

Major hoax there . . . "crisis actors" used at Sandy Hook were filmed at the scene of the "Oregon shooting".  Wake the fuck up people!

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:09 | 6631624 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture
16,000 Ukrainian troops defect Donbas with weapons, prosecutor says

October 05, 13:42 UTC+3
Deputy head of Ukraine’s armed forces mobilization department earlier reported that during a sixth wave of call-up almost 27,000 conscripts, around 50% of the total, had dodged army service

http://tass.ru/en/world/826234

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:30 | 6631725 Mike Masr
Mike Masr's picture

Fuck the banderist neo nazis in Kiev. Fuck them all to hell. Glory to Novorossiya!

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:12 | 6631633 CHoward
CHoward's picture

Hahaha  Hey - you bozos in the Pentagon - you're REALLY Putin's "prison bitches" now!!!!!

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:27 | 6631712 silverer
silverer's picture

So I'm a bit confused.  Let me see...  It's now God bless Russia?  Not God bless the USA?  Still a long way to go, but OMG what a mess out there!  Obama, prior to taking office: "I'll bring the boys home".  Sure you will, Barry.  Still waiting.  Does anyone tell the truth about anything anymore?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 15:39 | 6632250 CWolfRu
CWolfRu's picture

>So I'm a bit confused.  Let me see...  It's now God bless Russia?  Not God bless the USA? 

Ermn.... no.

God abandoned mankind long time ago, so then, we are part of Hell, and Satan is our blessed Judge.

what a good thing, isn't it?

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:38 | 6631774 Duc888
Duc888's picture

 

 

Hey, looky here?  Assholes intervening where they're not wanted. 

 

http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Israel-concerned-with-build-u...

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 13:52 | 6631831 optimator
optimator's picture

Why is Israel concerned about the Golan, they shouldn't even be there as it doesn't belong to them.  Or did god give them the title to that land too.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 15:45 | 6632267 CWolfRu
CWolfRu's picture

How do you think? Because they mad much more then everyone else.

Mon, 10/05/2015 - 14:04 | 6631887 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

I don't understand who Russia is going to blockade - is ISIS being supplied by sea?

... or wait, is the real blockade one against ISIS shipping *out* oil?

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