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LaVorgna Throws In The Towel On US Economy As Deutsche's "Weatherman" Cuts Growth Outlook
Well, it’s official.
One of the biggest permabulls on the Street is apparently turning bearish as Deutsche Bank’s chief US economist Joseph LaVorgna throws in the towel after taking a look at August trade date.
Here’s the call:
We are reducing our estimates of Q3 and Q4 real GDP growth due to a significant deterioration in net exports. Based on the complete August international trade data—we received the advance report last week—US exports are expected to be unchanged in the quarter. This is down from a 5.1% annualized increase in Q2, which followed a -6.0% West Coast port- and weather-related decline in Q1. At the same time, imports are on track to increase 10.0% in the quarter, the fastest gain since Q4 2014. This would have the effect of widening the trade deficit by $64 billion, which equates to a negative 160 basis-point annualized drag on Q3 output relative to our prior estimate. Recall that in Q1 2015, net exports subtracted 192 bps off real GDP growth. In response to today’s trade data, we have lowered our Q3 real GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 3.0% previously, and our forecast for Q4 real GDP growth has been trimmed from 3.0% to 2.3%. This has the effect of lowering 2015 real GDP growth, as measured on a Q4 over Q4 basis, from 2.6% to 2.1%. Moreover, we are cutting our 2016 forecast as well, albeit more modestly for reasons we will discuss in today’s US Daily Economic Notes. Real GDP growth for 2016 (Q4/Q4) is now projected at 2.7%, down three tenths from our earlier estimate.
Of course a soaring dollar isn't going to do anything to help the exports situation and as we've been at great pains to demonstrate with each passing NFP print, the fundamentals here are a veritable disaster, but at the end of the day, you can always hedge your bets and still preserve the "everything is fine" narrative by i) cutting estimates, and then ii) immediately blaming it all on the scapegoat of all scapegoats...
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Fake. Thats not really his forehead.
Mr Weatherman seems to wake up from his own crap
Classified him as a a useful idiot
its the weathers fault he had to cut back his own forehead
WAY too much tweeting time on his hands.
Quota part of his bonus?
Just the fact that this guy "navigates social media" makes me want to slap him right across his #FiveHead.
pods
Sorry ... but I can't resist ...
https://youtu.be/IqycJpRdVaY?t=12 Regards, CooterThe guy looks like a circus freak. Cue clown paint.
Joe would take it up the ass for anything. He is totally owned by the Wallstreet pimps
oh, don't worry...GDP will be "saved" by 500% inreases in O-Fuck-You-Who-Cares insurance premium hikes coming very soon across the board. That should save us all just like it did last year, right???
The problem here, of course, is that The Fed and The TBTF's are all part of the same CON-plex. So when there is NO volume andthe HFT Algos make the rules, they can do WTF they want. "Markets" anyone??
PS. As evidence, if anyone in The Private Sector had ever been SO bad at making forecasts so consistently, they would have been fired long ago?
If LaVagina used the REAL rate of inflation - which is 7%-9% - then the GDP will be well into the NEGATIVE (i.e. Depression)
weather is the moral hazard. the dustbowl was what the depression wa about.
He can't miss the head slap when stating, "I should have had a V-8".
"...........it looks like an orange on a toothpick..........."
I just posted that upthread LOL!
Regards,
Cooter
So this clown changes views on the economy because there is no more Bullshit to make up to cheer on suckers to buy stocks, now he will say more QE cause the economy is tanking. Same shit different day.
"Fake. Thats not really his forehead."
It's a Five Head, like Timmae Geithner.
That's how he got ahead.
QE4 is a lock QE5 before election day
Its not a forehead, maybe a five or even sixhead.
"I realize now that I was wrong."
- I Was Wrong - Social Distortion
What good is an economist that tells us the weather was bad?
Off topic, sorry, but can anybody point me out to some detailed analysis of what really happened with the "markets" on August 24th in the morning?
Panic sellign followed by panic buying? Glitch? HFT? Fat finger? Error on the screens? PPT asleep? System now fixed? Can never happen again?
Somehow this "event" doesn't seem to worry anybody, which I find surprising...
Everybody got the amusing repo call at once and nobody knew what to do next, except panic. Then they took some time to examine their next move and decided to wait for the sell before coming clean in their shorts. On the buy side we decided to wait for the gvt default before selling, a win-win for us, a lose-lose for the gvt. Sweet dreams while we all wait it out.
Neo: I just saw a cat walk by and then I saw it walk by again.
Trinity: Was it the same cat?
Morpheus: Deja vu is when they change something in the Matrix.
With so many computers slinging around funny money trying to scalp each other while reading tweets from everyone it is only a matter of time before there are anomalies that cause perturbations in what one use to call "the market."
All you need to know. It MIGHT function according to supply, earnings, etc. But it might not.
This was one of those might nots.
pods
Well, he can fall back on his Weatherman job when it all collapses.
No, he will sell the space on his gargantuan forehead for advertising.
"Eat at Joe's"
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=so+i+married+an+axe+murderer+head&FORM=VIRE7#view=detail&mid=E83311AF725576B4015CE83311AF725576B4015C
What a cute boy. His mother must be so proud.
Some folks still wonder what happened to the "mafia". They moved to Wall Street in the 70's. Their kids now run the place. Links between organized crime families and the "blue chip" families runs deep.
When they move to Greenwich they change their names....or intermarry. Look at the weddings in the last 35 years....
This guy looks imbred for sure.
Since when did Richard Simmons change his name and become an economist?
LaVorgna,
Ya think the rest of the world is in a downturn. How did you think the US would avoid it with such a low labor participation rate?
The reality is the US has some catching up to do. It will occur quickly before a bounce.
He shoulda been a weatherman...
it seems like all this guy does is try and put a positive shine on the very short-term outlook while asking others to ignore all the noise and errors hes made in analyzing the long-term outlook. i'm sure that's pretty much what his job requires, though.
a sycophant is still a sycophant, however.
LaVorgna's parents: (http://exclamationmark.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/tie2.jpg)
I wonder if he blames the weather when he can't get an erection.
the ZERO RATE BLACK HOLE just doesn't allow escape velocity.....
Would that be a Spiderman towel?
How can Germany upgrade growth forecasts based on mass Muslim 3rd world growth, and we've had it the entire Obama regime and the economy's all downhill?
Before that we had the benefit of immigrant growth under Bush.
You don't have to watch the wind to know if the Weatherman blows. Or something like that.
Germany needs more migration from the MiddleEast.Gotta keep labour costs low.
What did you expect after the last QE?
We are now negative a whopping 80 billion MOM because the FED did not print but markets expected the 80 billion. In some was it is so hilarious ...
Give a person a EBT card then watch the s%^t after you remove it ... same thing.
Each turn for the worse is going ramp up the call for more QE when major coroporations find they are not making the profit to JUSTIFY THE SHARE PRICE.