Someone Is Lying: Consumer Confidence Is Somehow Both "Highest" And "Lowest" For The Year

Tyler Durden's picture

To those keeping tabs on the government's propaganda, it doesn't get any more laughable than this.

One week ago, the Conference Board, a "tax-exempt non-profit business membership and research group organization" released a ridiculous number which made even the permabullish "strategists" on Wall Street blush: a consumer confidence print which soared to a level of 103: a number just shy of the January high which in turn was the highest such print going back all the way to August 2007. In short, according to this "impartial" organization, consumer confidence was the highest it has been in 2015.

 

Fast forward to today when Gallup released its own September consumer confidence number, one based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 1-30, 2015, on the Gallup U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample of 14,684 adults. What it found is that confidence in the economy averaged -14 for September, another drop from the -13 recorded in August. As Gallup notes, "the index has declined steadily since peaking at +3 in January."

It gets worse: weekly averages for the Economic Confidence Index have remained below -10 since early July. The weekly index fell to -17 in the last week of August amid volatile international and domestic market conditions, and has averaged between -12 and -14 since. The latest weekly average, for the week ending Oct. 4, is -13.

The breakdown:

Twenty-four percent of Americans rated the current economy as "excellent" or "good," while 31% rated it as "poor." This results in a current conditions score of -7.

 

Thirty-eight percent of Americans said the economy is "getting better," while 58% said it is "getting worse." This results in an economic outlook score of -20. The economic outlook score has trailed the current conditions score since March.

 

Gallup's conclusion:

After a downward trend that started in February, Americans' confidence in the economy in September hovered at its lowest point in a year. There has been a fair share of negative economic news in the past few months, including the late-summer drop in the stock market and the government's recent disappointing jobs report. However, at the same time, the price of gas remains lower now than at this time last year. Gallup's other economic measures are showing mixed tendencies, with an increase in the percentage of Americans who say now is a good time to find a quality job, but a fairly flat pattern of consumer spending.

So according to what is arguably the most respected polling organization in the US, consumer confidence has crashed to the lowest level in a year. On the other hand, according to a tax-exempt research organization, consumer confidence is not only the highest it has been in 2015, but it practically the highest since 2007.

Someone is lying, we leave it up to readers to decide who.

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KnuckleDragger-X's picture

If your official job is shoveling shit........

knukles's picture

Confidence!?!?!?!?!?
We just got Mrs K's health care renewal notification for 2016 and her monthly is going up 66.8% to $2,500+/month.

                                     Green Shoots My Ass

JustObserving's picture

At least, it solves the problem of deflation that worries Old Yeller so much. She almost had a stroke.

TongueStun's picture
TongueStun (not verified) JustObserving Oct 6, 2015 12:49 PM

Obama lies? Really?

 

 

"Obama blamed the kneegrow's gun, when he should have blamed his keegrow son"

froze25's picture

Well now that Propaganda is legal for the Gov't in the USA, to use on its population, its game on.  Full Retard mode engaged.  Damn be the trust of the populace. 

Propoganda was legalized on 2012

http://www.businessinsider.com/ndaa-legalizes-propaganda-2012-5

LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture
LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD (not verified) froze25 Oct 6, 2015 1:22 PM

"We just got Mrs K's health care renewal notification for 2016 and her monthly is going up 66.8% to $2,500+/month."

Ohhh... "GREAT" news for the GDP - Your (government forced) spending is up!!!!  Economy BOOMING!!!

NoDebt's picture

I think it depends on which "consumers" you ask.

And nobody asked me shit.  Doubt they ever asked for your opinion either.

insanelysane's picture

Consumers are 100% confident that if they don't waste money on back to school shopping, halloween shopping, and Christmas shopping; they will be able to heat their homes and buy food and just barely afford healthcare insurance.

froze25's picture

Please send that memo to my wife...

froze25's picture

Puppies and Rainbow Unicorns for me.  (As I stack and pack my store-able food)  You know we are being massively bull shitted.  Gov't always bull shit somewhat but the level is way, way up.  I think hard times are closer than we are being lead to believe.  I mean China engaging in Syria and a currency war.  What happens when that goes full retard.  Economic and monetary collapse is what happens.  What you gonna do, when the free shit army comes for you!-  a twist on a hulk hogan quote.

general ambivalent's picture

Very true. Wrestlemania is more realistic than whatever is on the news these days. And at least with wrestling someone gets a chair to the back of the head every now and then.

Gab Timov's picture

Remember which party made that happen...at election time.

Yes, they're two different tentacles of the same plutoligarchic sea beast, but still.

TongueStun's picture
TongueStun (not verified) Gab Timov Oct 6, 2015 12:54 PM

WOW...5 up arrows from the "Both partys are the same" drones here at ZH?

 

Apparently the definition of "same" is elusive to many here!

froze25's picture

Yeah we really need to pay close attention to who replaces Boehner as house speaker.  I mean a roto-rooter background check and analysis on his/her past positions and relationships, campaign donors etc.  Full frontal expose.

vq1's picture

yes but the iphone 6s has lots of new features and great health apps. So consider that as an offset. 

 

Please enjoy your stay

Hype Alert's picture

Don't worry though, when reports of people not spending their gasoline savings come out, they never understand why it's not spent on retail.  Same with reports on inflation; health care premiums, deductables, etc. are never mentioned. 

Oldwood's picture

Revision to the mean.

My parents had no expectation of any specific healthcare that would save or significantly extend their lives. They worked and saved for some eventuality but in the end they simply chose to opt out. When their health got bad...as it eventually does for all of us, they did the doctor merry-go-round bit and soon discovered that they would quickly expire their savings while only extending their suffering...not life as normally perceived. So they just died...at home, and cheated the healthcare system out of thousands of dollars. At some point we will have to accept (or maybe not) that none of us are getting out alive and maybe what we do with what we have is more important than how long we last until our last tortured breath.

I guess my point is that it has been our expectations of healthcare, like everything else, that was allowed to "inflate" due to debt and wealth redistribution. I think our healthcare, as well as our general quality of life, is bound to decline as this reconciliation occurs. Obama has simply accelerated it, exacerbated it and likely made the reconciliation much more painful.

Soon, healthcare will be a luxury, at least in the form we used to enjoy it. Higher costs and less responsive medical systems, more intent on paper processing than health outcomes.

Omen IV's picture

The Washington DC Policy is called: Murder by Neglect !

o r c k's picture

My daughters Obamacare just went from 250.00 to 499.00. Not joking.

JustObserving's picture

Someone is lying, we leave it up to readers to decide who

You have to have the wisdom of Solomon to make such a decision.  Then again, my parrot is named Solomon. And he knows.

Kaervek's picture

I don't get why anyone really cares about how some random people "feel" about the so called "economy". It's about what they do - do they buy stuff? do they want to work? do they get paid? do they care??

But what does it matter, shit ain't gon' change. If we only were to stop manipulating and falsifying all those economic statistics like GDP numbers it would be clearly visible to everyone what's going on in this our beloved "economy". To me, this is about as disgusting to watch as those big tobacco officials testifying under oath in court about how cigarettes aren't harmful to anyone. Liars and cheats.

Well, but serfs gon' get serf'd. I don't believe there is any justice and I think this farce will never end, so what do I buy now? Long MIC or do you have any better ideas?

astoriajoe's picture

Can't we just double seasonally adjust the second one? 

Gab Timov's picture

I mean I guess a few things could be weighing on people's moods...like a steady stream of BS and lies from the media/government/corporations/banks/ruling class for the last 8 years. That stuff kind of adds up and makes one wonder if one's country is even going to be around much longer. The heavy existential questions tend to put a drag on the happy shopping.

vq1's picture

oh things are bad now but next year, candidate X or Y will make everything better

dimwitted economist's picture

LYING?!?!?! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!! no fucking way. obama would stop them.

venturen's picture

one is adjusted

buzzsaw99's picture

“Let me be clear that negative interest rates was not something that we considered very seriously at all today. It was not one of our main policy options under consideration", Ms. Yellen said.

Gab Timov's picture

So...negative rates starting in 2016?

knukles's picture

Well she did say after all that they considered it, but not for "today" and "today's" long gone soooooooooooo ......  When would you like your negative rates?  Never?  Sorry, but never doesn't work for the Reptilians

vq1's picture

let me be clear... and by clear I mean fedspeak clear... as in it can mean whatever you want it to mean, or whatever we want it to mean, either, niether or both at the same time or any combination (depending on other exterior factors such as weather).

dobermangang's picture

Well at least some of the liars are finally getting their comeuppance. 

http://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2015/10/05/bloodbath-los-angeles...

froze25's picture

We can worry about that tomorrow.  

yogibear's picture

Don't they and the New York Times  get all their news from the Obama office of propaganda anyway?

Obama's staff can write the articles directly. Get rid of the middle people.

 

VWAndy's picture

Both are wrong in the same dirrection is my guess.

nakki's picture

We all know by now that if your job is to sell stuff you have to make up stupid numbers. BLS is the biggest joke of all birth/death rates are pure fiction. Just made up statistics that get revised years later. 

That's why no matter how smart people are, when they quote government numbers as the come out, in my option are morons. Bulls and Bears alike. Survey that get revised and adjusted years, decades back should have no meaning when they are first reported.

Arthur Schopenhauer's picture

Conference Board... Jesus is watching you. I even saw Santa Claus the other day, angrily scribbling something down on a piece of paper.

Yen Cross's picture

lol... Did some ex-employees from the BLS and NOAA get together and apply for grant from the Negropolian administration?

 Looks like the unknown junker has resurfaced.

PhiBetaZappa's picture

Someone is lying - not necessarily. 

Doublehink - the power to hold two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously and accept both of them.

the grateful unemployed's picture

the first survey probably includes questions about your intention to make large purchases. do you plan to have cancer surgery with several months of chemotherapy or would you putting that off until economic conditions improve?

yogibear's picture

Yeah, I'm confident we are getting a screw-job by the Obama administration, Federal Reserve  and the MSM.

All working together to keep the public stupid. Obamacare will keep on rising for what's left of the middle class.

Dre4dwolf's picture

Each month The Conference Board surveys 5,000 US households. The survey consists of five questions that ask the respondents' opinions about the following:[2]

  1. Current business conditions
  2. Business conditions for the next six months
  3. Current employment conditions
  4. Employment conditions for the next six months
  5. Total family income for the next six months

Ok so lets assume that we were asked these questions as part of the survey, Potential Answers:

1) Hard

2) Harder

3) Hard / not worth your time

4) We still have six months?

5) What income? (pulls out a shotgun and tells them to get off stoop) rambles something about taxes and various curse words and throws a banana.

 

 

 

Hohum's picture

I think quantum theory explains it.

Sokhmate's picture

Schrodinger's Consumer Schrodinger's Confidence Schrodinger's Index

Vlad the Inhaler's picture

I just got back from the grocery store and I swear all the prices were up about 15% from a couple of weeks ago.

robnume's picture

It's probably in our best interests to go with the 'tax exempt' polling firms take on this. Just to be on the safe side. I mean, you saw what they did to Medicins Sans Frontieres when they chose not to play by the globalists 'rules'.

Insurrexion's picture

Someone is lying, we leave it up to readers to decide who.

Polling is nothing more than an attempt (or false attempt) to present what certain groups of people believe, feel, or think. They attempt to use statistical evidence to show a social truth, fact, or trend. Then they extrapolate their evidence to an entire population to influence public policy and public opinion.

U.S. Federal Government Media vs. The American People (PsyOp (MISO) 101)

 

Example Tactic #1:

 Counter the truth with a lie to create confusion of contradictory messages in the brain.

The human brain naturally searches for truth and fact as a survival mechanism.

It also disregards several contradictory messages as equal/contradicting noise.

They hear: "It's this." "No, it's that." "No, it's this..." and so on. They stop.

They shut down the conflicting noise, stop trying to understand the truth and move on.

Mission accomplished.

 

Example Tactic #2:

The fire hydrant of information never ceases.

The human brain cannot possibly process 24/7 information flows.

They shut down when the volume of information flow, or repeated message flow overwhelms them.

Then they stop thinking and only repeat what they recall.

Ask any American what happened in the news two weeks ago.

You will get an empty stare and guessing ensues. And, they are not sure why?

Mission accomplished.

 

The American public is brain dead, from these (and other) tactics through mass media & internet. They are being programmed into compliance, group think, repeating the message and acquiescence to authority. Add alcohol and drug abuse, obesity, violence, and public education to the mix, and you get a fucked up culture.

Individual thinking, creative thinking, self-reliance, self-confidence and personal responsibility (qualities that made America) are discouraged in the New Normal.

Consider the polling source and the brain dead that are polled in the polling numbers created for you to BELIEVE in.

 

Otherwise, fuck the polls, shoot your fucking TV and fuck the New Normal.

Mission accomplished.