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Could The Syrian Conflict Irrevocably Change Global Geopolitics?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Robert Berke via OilPrice.com,

Few meetings ever started with dimmer prospects for success than the recent meeting between Presidents Obama and Putin.

The real call for the meeting stemmed from the EU refugee crisis. With a human catastrophe brewing in Europe and the Middle East, EU leaders are urgently demanding that the U.S. and Russia set aside their differences and begin to work together in an effort to resolve the Syrian conflict, the major cause of the massive movement of people seeking sanctuary.

Now, U.S./EU leaders are no longer insisting on the removal of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from office as a pre-condition to negotiations over a new government, although the U.S. continues to insist that al-Assad's removal become part of any final settlement.

But how can such fundamental differences be set aside when the two sides can't even agree on the enemy they're fighting? The U.S. and its allies have defined the Syrian conflict as a civil war against a despotic regime. The Russians define the conflict as an invasion by foreign Islamic radicals, paid and supported by U.S.' Middle Eastern allies.

The EU has made its demands clear: solve the problem, we don’t particularly care how, but it has to be done quickly. From that point of view, the U.S. and Russian leaders have little choice but to answer the call.

Russia is attempting to form and lead a UN authorized coalition against ISIL, the radical jihadists’ adversaries that conquered large parts of Syria and Iraq, while threatening to engulf the entire region.

Obama has stated publicly that he welcomes help from Russia and Iran in the fight against radical jihadists, ISIL, in Syria, while still insisting that al-Assad must go. On their side, the Russians have made no secret of their strong objections to NATO-led regime change, citing the results of failed states in Iraq, Libya, Tunisia, and Egypt.

In a recent New York Times article, an Administration insider stated that the President believes Syria is a lost cause, one that U.S. military presence could only worsen.

Obama has also shown little reluctance to lead from behind, when supporting NATO partners, particularly with a U.S. public largely opposed to America's military engagement in any further Mideast wars.

But Russia is not NATO, and it's clear that the U.S. has no intention of following the Kremlin's lead in Syria, as its veto of the Russian coalition proposal at the UN Security Council clearly shows. Adding to that was the United States’strong condemnation of the Russian air attack on its first day of operations in Syria.

The urgency of the moment favors cooperation, while geography gives Russia major advantages in leading the fight. Russia's relationship with Iran, already fighting on the ground in Iraq, with its ally Hezbollah fighting in Syria, provides Russia with a readymade army to complement its air attacks.

With the Russians initiating air strikes against ISIL in Syria, the great fear of world leaders is that an accidental collision between opposing U.S. and Russian forces raises the risks of war between the two nuclear powers.

While both sides deny any intent at military collaboration or sharing of military intelligence in Syria, the two Presidents have agreed to meetings of their military leaders, ostensibly aimed at reducing the risk of accidental conflicts between them. How that can be done without shared military intelligence about troop movements, and planned air attacks remains a mystery.

Adding to the confusion is the increasingly cordial meetings between Russian and Saudi leaders.

Many believe that the Saudis, and their Gulf Kingdom partners, hold the key to resolving the conflict, as the major backers of the 'moderate Islamic' rebels fighting the Syrian Government forces.

The Saudis have largely refrained from criticizing the Russian military buildup in Syria, even though it bolsters the Assad regime, and the Kingdom continues to hold its cards close to its vest regarding their position on the new Russian military initiative in Syria.

At the same time, there were conflicting signals in regards to the relationship between Iran and Russia. Reports surfaced in late September that the two countries, along with Syria and Iraq, were coordinating military efforts against the ISIL. But at the UN meeting, Iran's President Rouhani made the surprising statement that Iran saw no need to coordinate military efforts in Syria, with the Russian goal to support its embattled ally in Syria, while Iran's goal is eradicate ISIL.

It's widely recognized that since the Iran nuclear deal, Iran and the U.S. have sought to move closer in other important areas. Still, Rouhani's UN statement seemed to belie the recent agreements between Russia, Iran, Iraq, and Syria to build an information center in Baghdad to share battlefield reconnaissance against ISIL.

That also falls in line with the new agreement with Iran, Iraq, and Syria to provide an air corridor for Russian military flyovers to Syria for Russian fighter planes and transport aircraft.

To observers, these agreements certainly smack of military coordination with Russia. Iran's need to distance itself from Russia seems to be made with an eye on the U.S., where hardline Presidential candidates threaten to tear up the nuclear agreement.

The highly charged political atmosphere in the U.S., in the midst of a Presidential election, only adds to the fog of war in Syria, forcing public denials and secret agreements where there needs to be utmost clarity, making military cooperation in Syria almost impossible, while raising the risks of accidental conflicts between so-called partners.

What then of western sanctions against Russia? In the eyes of the west, the Syrian conflict is beginning to eclipse Ukraine in importance. The U.S. seems satisfied to leave the Ukraine issue to Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine for settlement.

The EU is most likely to be the first mover to ease sanctions, realizing, as a number of EU leaders have stated, that it is fundamentally incompatible to rely on Russia’s military might while starving the Russian economy.

In January, the EU sanctions are set to expire, requiring a unanimous vote of all member states for extension. The odds are rising that the EU will allow sanctions to expire.

If so, major global business will once again flock to Russia. That would include the return of major western energy companies that have played a critical part in Russian energy development. Once that starts, it will become far more difficult to reverse the momentum or re-impose sanctions.

Given the political atmosphere in Washington, it’s clear the U.S. will leave its sanctions in place.

 

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Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:28 | 6644711 Tachyon5321
Tachyon5321's picture

This will have no impact on the USA because Obama has already turned over the middle east to Russian.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:33 | 6644732 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

We could hope, but President Zippy and Ketchup-Boy have ego's that are too big not to play. Unfortunately, the game is cut-throat and not old maid.....

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:40 | 6644757 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture
Could The Syrian Conflict Irrevocably Change Global Geopolitics?

It has already changed global geopolitics.  We already knew that the USSA is a subprime financial empire with 18 Trillion++debt.... now we see that the USSA military is also a subprime military power. This is no fault of the honest men and women who serve in the US military,  but a direct reflection of  the corrupt, vile politics that poison the formerly free United States of America.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:51 | 6644863 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Obama Irrelevance ??????????

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:36 | 6644753 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

Russian and Chinses leaders both met Obama in Washington in the week proceeding Russia's Syrian campaign. The Russian and Chinese Military and strategic alliance is well known by everyone except the American People.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 13:02 | 6644931 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

If only that were true I'd dance a jig. I don't think Russia could afford it.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:28 | 6644714 Pooper Popper
Pooper Popper's picture

here comes the storm,,,I hope all are ready...but I know most are not.

 

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:30 | 6644720 Bioscale
Bioscale's picture

Could? It already has.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:37 | 6644763 WTFRLY
WTFRLY's picture

The changes are already permanent. Expect the grand false flag soon to bend the narrative back into shape. The New World Order won't just let it slip away.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:38 | 6644771 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

You've got that right brother.

I don't think fthe full realization has fully sunk in yet among people, especially inside the beltway.

They have no recent experience of not getting their own way.

Putin is about to rub their nose in their own shit, very publically, as the RoW watches.

the axis of power just shifted in the world.

A very dagerous point in time.We will need all the luck that comes our way.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:30 | 6644722 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Geopolitics isn't a statue, but a blender people keep tossing miscellaneous crap into. What we get out of it makes a great guessing game if your not the one who is part of the shooting gallery.....

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:32 | 6644724 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

China has to get involved in Syria if there is to be a permanent change in the murderous Neocon foreign policy of the US.

A military conflict with Russia could make all predictions moot

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:35 | 6644742 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

China will get into the game if for no other reason than to protect their oil supply....

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:37 | 6644762 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

China would prefer that Russia and US bear the major cost of any conflict.  That is an easy way to win. And become a major superpwoer by having your rivals degrade themselves.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 14:22 | 6644852 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Yep, and that sucks. The only other way would be for us to just walk away, but our elites will never allow that to happen.....

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 13:21 | 6645050 Setarcos
Setarcos's picture

Russia and china are not rivals ... not for a long while now.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 13:40 | 6645173 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

Have you ever heard of SCO?

why link to Wiki when you can link to Wiki's source    lol

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:36 | 6644758 Bioscale
Bioscale's picture

I see China already being involved through Russia. Have you seen the big military parades in Moscow and Beijing this year? The things happening in Syria, Iraq, Iran are seriously concerning China, this might be the main reason why US backed off. Russia is acting with silent agreement of China. But who knows..

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:36 | 6644739 rejected
rejected's picture

"Adding to that was the United States’strong condemnation of the Russian air attack on its first day of operations in Syria."

I can't believe the Russian delegation didn't bust out laughing... considering the ussa has been bombing brown people in the ME since 1990.

 

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:37 | 6644761 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Go farther back. We overthrew the democratically elected government of Iran and replaced it with a dictator back in the 50's.....

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:41 | 6644790 rejected
rejected's picture

And for the same reason: OIL

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Yes?

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:51 | 6644867 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Not so much oil, but regional control. Too bad we've fucked the entire region up for so long that everybody hates our guts.....

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 13:41 | 6645187 Victor von Doom
Victor von Doom's picture

You underestimate yourselves. In as much as you are throwing your lot in with the regime - it is the entire globe that hates your guts, not just the ME region.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:36 | 6644759 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

What a BS headline.

Geopolitics is always in a state of flux.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:42 | 6644796 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Ask Lindsey Graham......Time to dump the motherfucker for a new Republican. 

Sen. Lindsey Graham "I Don't Care If It's An American Citizen

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qBUnYK7Klhw

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:47 | 6644836 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Lindsay Mary Graham sits on a Barney Frank signed, Dodd Frank pillow while driving his soccer mom van. 

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:43 | 6644806 Minburi
Minburi's picture

The US government has no right to demand that Assad leave his position.

The globalist bankers and their minions are starting to annoy some people who are waking up to what is going on.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:47 | 6644832 yomutti
yomutti's picture

Russia's not solving the problem, which is ISIS. All Russia is doing is protecting their pet killer. They really don't give a f&ck about ISIS.

 

 

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 13:07 | 6644966 Cundium
Cundium's picture

Sure Vomitti.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:49 | 6644847 Omega_Man
Omega_Man's picture

Ukraine.. never heard of it

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 13:05 | 6644955 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Georgian, never heard of it. 

Saakashvili chewing his tie (BBC News) - YouTube

Georgian Jews World Congress

Once you turn on the gas, they run for their life. 

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 13:00 | 6644924 WTFRLY
WTFRLY's picture

White House still ignores murder of American reporter Serena Shim who filmed western aid to ISIS February 27, 2015

1 year anniversary of her death. October 19. 

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 13:02 | 6644942 Omega_Man
Omega_Man's picture

So if Syrian air force shoots down some US planes... Russia can say they didn't do it... Syria should warn US and NATO they are not welcome

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 13:15 | 6644962 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Awesome analysis showing a trade off activated by Potus : Ukraine we leave to the Euro group; we are out!

(Mutti will probably lift Eu sanctions on Russia in Jan. 16. Big win for Putin.)

Syria is our main preoccupation and we will do everything to aid the enemies of the Putin/Assad axis; and Turkey must to the same with Nato's backing!

The ante goes up in Syrac and Putin's march along the Jihad corridor is now the world's main preoccupation.

Rohani blows cold (he wants the Senate to approve the nuclear) while Soleimani blows hot on Iran's position as the boots on ground troops of Assad's allies.

Quo Vadis Mr Putin?

All the way to Baghdad or just a foot in the Syrian door?

And...the key to that is in Riyadh not in DC !

That says it all. DC/Saud now not vitally linked as long as Obama is Potus!

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 13:24 | 6644982 Victor von Doom
Victor von Doom's picture

"With the Russians initiating air strikes against ISIL in Syria, the great fear of world leaders is that an accidental collision between opposing U.S. and Russian forces raises the risks of war between the two nuclear powers."

 Bullshit. The great fear of world banksters is than Russian forces will kill off all their hard work in forging a Greater Israel, and that there is nothing they can do to stop it.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 13:10 | 6644990 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

White a rainbow-coloured piece of a turd "article". To wit:

"The EU has made its demands clear: solve the problem, we don’t particularly care how, but it has to be done quickly. From that point of view, the U.S. and Russian leaders have little choice but to answer the call."

 

And the counter-argument (from ZH's Frontline 8th of October):

  • U.S. Rules Out Cooperation With Russia as Moscow Launches First Naval Strikes on Syria (WSJ)

 

But anyway, I applaud to the good strawman likening EU to a crippled orphan that can't tie it's own shoes without the help of its tutors Russia and USSA. It was a good attempt to twist the real projection of EU not doing anything because that's what their Zionazi Overlords in DC ordered them. Even (some) Keynesians are not that stupid to destroy the capital they've invested in...

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 13:34 | 6645128 Victor von Doom
Victor von Doom's picture

"Iran's need to distance itself from Russia seems to be made with an eye on the U.S., where hardline Presidential candidates threaten to tear up the nuclear agreement."

What a feed of shit. When bullied by the US into signing an agreement that is blatantly against Iranian interests, whilst simultaneously setting themselves up for false flag inspector claims aka Iraqi style, Iran found a "need" to run to Russia for protection.

The Iranians couldn't give a rat's arse about the nuclear deal - they know what calibre of evil scumbag they are dealing with in the form of the US.

There is no way to placate the genocidal tendencies of the world enemy Chosenites, and they know it. 

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 14:19 | 6645161 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

The Saudi royals  are conflicted by the limits that supporting expansionist wahhabism has in maintaining their hold on power. Actual islamic zealots are a threat to their power. The appearance of religious fundamentalism is a support. (In some ways, analogous to the problems of US Republican party leaders .) The Saudis have made 'secret" deals with the Israelis when convenient.

Israeli Zionists would like Assad replaced by anarchy/extremists so they could find excuses to annex Syrian territory. Assad did not provide any excuses. But Sunni ISIS could pose a real threat to Israel also.

The US is chagrined about its militaristic plans to take over the Mideast being thwarted. Chaos in Syria and elsewhere also undermines Iran. With US control/dominance of military bases,  pipelines, petrodollar finances, and Iranian resources, then  both China and Russia could be subordinated under the Pentagon/neoliberal full spectrum dominance doctrine.

Neither China nor Russia want to be subordinated.

Both Russia and China do have domestic problems with violent Islamic extremists, and along their borders as well.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 14:27 | 6645432 Phillyguy
Phillyguy's picture

The US/NATO war theater extends from the Levant, to Caspian Basin, Persian Gulf, China Sea, Indian ocean, Horn of Africa, the Maghreb and more recently, to Eastern Europe and Russian border. What have been the results? This enterprise has cost US taxpayers $ trillions, destabilized much of the ME and lead to creation of ISIS/ISIL/Daesh. As pointed out by Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett (goingtotehran.com), these policies have been a strategic disaster for the US.

 

Bottom line- US foreign policy over the last decade has been a military, political and economic disaster for the country. The entire world is witnessing the consequences of these policies in Syria. 

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 14:52 | 6645546 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

 Generalizations can be useful short-hand.

But next step of analysis requires more specific terminology.

"disaster for US"    "disaster for country"

The words "USA" and "country" are abstractions with intrinsically ill-defined and contested definitions.

 

In the real world, with the actual actors:

disaster for some.

bonanza for others.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 14:34 | 6645466 researchfix
researchfix's picture

The Saudis have largely refrained from criticizing the Russian military buildup in Syria, even though it bolsters the Assad regime, and the Kingdom continues to hold its cards close to its vest regarding their position on the new Russian military initiative in Syria.

Not true. Read ZH two days ago. Not true?

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 01:13 | 6647798 onmail1
onmail1's picture

Yes of course

Petrodollar will collapse

Homophile Evil America & its euroPeon pirate followers will become like harlots standing on roadside

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