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This Is How The IMF "Predicted" China's Slowdown

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Over the past 5 years, the one forecast that was clear to anyone with even an introductory grasp of economics and finance, is that a Chinese economic collapse due to a gargantuan debt load and a surge in non-performing loans, is inevitable and just a matter of time. Apparently, in retrospect, this was also clear to the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, who during a press conference in Lima, said the following:

  • LAGARDE SAYS CHINA'S SLOWDOWN WAS PREDICTABLE, IS A "GOOD MOVE"

There is just one problem with that: of all market participants, the IMF is perhaps the only one who did not predict China's slowdown. Quite the opposite.

As the following chart compiling the IMF's various quarterly economic forecasts over the past 5 years clearly shows, what the IMF had actually forecast, was a constant hockeystick rebound in China growth starting in 2011... until 2014 when the monetary fund finally gave up.

 

To be "fair", the IMF's forecast of China's growth "after the fact" is now so negative, it is well below the consensus projections, as the IMF is all too happy to boast:

As for China's slowdown being a "good move", here are some more charts and forecasts casting doubt on this assessment:

 

And the promised commentary from August 14, 2015 (by which time China's collapse was indeed clear to all as it was about 2 years in the rearview mirror):

The augmented debt level is also sensitive to a contingent liability shock, which would push debt to near 100 percent of GDP in 2020. Such a shock, for instance, could be a large-scale bank recapitalization or financial system bailout to deal, for example, with a potential rise in NPLs from deleveraging. A combined macrofiscal shock would increase the debt-to-GDP ratio from about 71 percent to 78 percent in 2020.

Source: the IMF.

Or, in other words, the "slowdown" is what is also known as "not a good move."

So not only did Lagarde not predict China's slowdown, but she failed to read her staff's own forecasts showing why the ongoing bursting of China's serial bubbles is going to lead to one of two outcomes: a hard-landing, one which sends a deflationary shockwave around the globe, or a gargantuan debt load as China does what the IMF preaches each and every time: kick the can.

 

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Thu, 10/08/2015 - 11:59 | 6644572 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

And yet, here we are standing athwart history screaming BULLSHIT!!!

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:17 | 6644661 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

+1 for the use of "athwart"!

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:35 | 6644745 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

"How do I get thith athwart removed from my ath?"  -Daffy Duck

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 13:42 | 6645183 funthea
funthea's picture

LOL, I would have upped you twice if I could have.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:00 | 6644581 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

How do any of these fuckers keep their job?  They don't produce anything of real value and are hundreds of percent off in their analysis all the fucking time?

Take their motherfucking heads already! Nothing changes otherwise!!!

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:09 | 6644622 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

What they have aren't jobs, but Letters of Marque.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Letter_of_marque

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:21 | 6644675 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

They wish.  Such profiteering involves real work and a private army.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:45 | 6644824 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Mercenary forces are making a big comeback....

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 13:16 | 6645028 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Optimist.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:23 | 6644690 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Because the bankers get their share and the minions get their TV shows and beer. Who the fuck knows what the Chinese get so they are pumping that pig up as fast as time/money allows.

No one has paid attention for a very, very long time in a large segment of our society. Does that tell you they want anything to change?

 

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:33 | 6644733 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, but unfortunately, just like real money, beer cannot be created out of thin air.  From where I sit, the producers of real commodities have been attacked to the point where the supply lines are starting to crack in earnest.  In short, prepare for global Weimar.

When the SNAP cards don't work or no producer/provider accepts the bullshit promises, people will be forced to pay attention.

same as it ever was...

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:13 | 6644639 rita
rita's picture

When ever the IMF predicted their previsions for Portugal´s economy they never got anything right, so much so that we the people were always joking at how wrong their previsions always were. Seems to continue to do the  wrong predictions why does one even bother to read or publish the rubbish they say?

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:16 | 6644650 mendigo
mendigo's picture

Clearly it is a given ineconomic analysis that while things suck now(in retrospect) that next quarter it will improve. WTF!? Even Lasagna knws that law of krugman analysis.PHD(tm)

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:21 | 6644674 mijev
mijev's picture

I loved it when the haggard faced cow told a news reporter, "The problem with the greeks was that they didn't pay enough taxes." She is exempt from paying taxes.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:27 | 6644709 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Someone should have jumped her shit. But the media doesn't fucntion anymore.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:33 | 6644721 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Lagarde is one SDR shy of being a solvent institution.

SWIFT: IMFDUS3WXXX

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:34 | 6644735 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

The IMF is full bear and is predicting this shit show will be exposed for what it is in the near future:

IMF: World's economy is at most risk since 2008-09

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-marksjarvis-1008-biz-20151007-...

 

IMF warns of 'Triad' of risks facing global economy - as it happened

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/oct/07/global-growth-fears...

 

The global economy is once again slowing down, IMF says

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonkblog/wp/2015/10/06/its-groundhog-...

 

IMF: Emerging-Market Troubles Risk Triggering Asset Fire Sales Over-borrowing by developing nations may total $3 trillion, the fund says

http://www.wsj.com/articles/imf-emerging-market-troubles-risk-triggering...

 

IMF says commodities shock from China slowdown likely to put Latin America into recession

http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2015/10/07/imf-sees-recessi...

 

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 12:35 | 6644748 nakki
nakki's picture

This article as well of many others misses the point. Guessing economic numbers based on made up numbers is pointless. I predict that U.S. YoY inflation will be 1.5% based on the fake inflation numbers that come out. Who cares what any entity predicts when all of the numbers are fictious, massaged, seasonally adjusted, bullshit anyways.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 15:28 | 6645745 MASTER OF UNIVERSE
MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

Listen up, I don't know what is going on down at head office, but I told you FREAKS that Legarde had to retire last year about the same time last year. If you do not retire this dried-up-prune of a central banker that has zero talent I will admonish you all for being abjectly incompetent. On the basis of productivity alone we can collectively conclude that Christine 'the slut' Legarde has outlived her usefulness.

 

Now throw the old slut under the bus and be done with her, and her ilk, God damn it.

 

Signed, MASTER OF UNIVERSE

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