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Rate-Hike Odds Tumble Post-Minutes; Stocks Soar

Tyler Durden's picture




 

UPDATE: Well that didn't last long...

 

Stocks are now soaring after we noted the initial reaction...

A decidedly dovish FOMC Minutes, warning that the economy is not ready for rate-hikes, has driven rate-hike odds to their lows once again. December and January odds are now below 50% and markets are reacting with bond, crude, and bullion buying, dollar selling and stocks uncertainty.

 

Rate hike odds drop...

 

With bonds & bullion outperforming...

 

And WTI crude tops $50...

 

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Thu, 10/08/2015 - 14:26 | 6645421 Serfs Up
Serfs Up's picture

fk this.

Everything hinges on buying stawks and selling gold.

That's their whole strategery.

Efamol.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 14:31 | 6645433 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

7 years of printing and this is the economy they get? And they think another round, or two, or three of printing is gonna change things? They're like an alcoholic who goes on a binge, stops drinking for a week, and then walks up to a bottle and says "this time's gonna be different." It won't.

 

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 15:16 | 6645657 maxamus
maxamus's picture

Efamol?  Nah, I prefer real gas.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 15:16 | 6645662 dimwitted economist
dimwitted economist's picture

Gold is NOT Money

 

(i know because Ben said so)

 

Still I Wonder: Could he be Lying?

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 14:26 | 6645425 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Lets party bitchez......the drinks are on the Fed.......

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 14:28 | 6645437 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Nobody believes the Fed, well tsk etc.....

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 14:32 | 6645457 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

the magical cap has appeared again right at the 1150.00 line in the sand......

 

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/gold.php

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 14:37 | 6645485 Mark Mywords
Mark Mywords's picture

Well then that settles is. S&P 2250 here we come!

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 14:42 | 6645507 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

http://ejmoosa.com/blog3/2015/10/08/how-the-federal-reserves-rate-polici...

Just look at the charts in my link above.  They know they cannot raise rates.  

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 14:43 | 6645510 Sanity Bear
Sanity Bear's picture

My expectations on the timing of the next Fed rate hike remain unchanged.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 14:44 | 6645517 FreeShitter
FreeShitter's picture

Dow 20k by Thanksgiving.....i hope you are all in.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 15:11 | 6645622 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture
College Students Are Graduating Into an Incredible Job Market

 

“Most signs point to another explosive year of growth in the job market for college graduates,” said Phil Gardner, the Michigan State professor who wrote the report.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-08/college-students-are-g...

 

Makes you wonder how this guy Gardner writes that with a straight face. I guess he feels people are so Gruberized they'll believe anything.

 

From Bloomberger also:

 

Wall Street Winning Streak Seen Ending on Global Market Turmoil


Analysts project that revenue declined at five of the biggest banks -- JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley -- and that only Wells Fargo & Co. produced a gain, amounting to about 2.8 percent.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-08/wall-street-winning-st...

 

 

 

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 14:48 | 6645533 vq1
vq1's picture

why did gold spike only to be slammed back down....

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 14:57 | 6645569 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Credibility in the Fed put remains intact.  It's the only credibility that matters.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 15:07 | 6645613 Jason T
Jason T's picture

no rate hikes because there is deflation and a collapse in aggregate demand.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 15:11 | 6645639 Ajax_USB_Port_R...
Ajax_USB_Port_Repair_Service_'s picture

We are going into a recession. Most every major country is bankrupt. The world is at war. Civil unrest ready to blow. Anyone with shoes and a shirt can buy a new car. Good news for stocks?

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 15:12 | 6645642 adr
adr's picture

So now, not raising rates has the same effect as announcing MOAR QE?????

Confirmation that this are shit, means everything is great.

Demand not falling as much as they thought means demand is actually increasing.

 

There isn't something painful enough in the world to fuck these people in the ass with.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 15:31 | 6645761 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Anyone that has been paying attention and has an IQ higher than their shoe size has known that the un-fed is not, will not, raise rates, period!

MOAR,MOAR,MOAR! Heli drops and negitive rates are next up!

No doubt about it!

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 15:49 | 6645899 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

This market is just so sick it defies belief. 79 months and counting.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 16:51 | 6646273 homebody
homebody's picture

I just can not wait for negative interest rates - then I am going to go into debt to the eyeballs and default on as much as I can.  Sick of the dictators manipulating my money.

 

We always honored our debts but the system is doing its best to drown us anyway.  Just about time for the torches and pitchforks.

Thu, 10/08/2015 - 19:17 | 6646829 teutonicate
teutonicate's picture

 

"Stock soar", really?

Guys, just wanted to call your attention to the fact that the Nasdaq 100 just barely managed to eke out a close slightly higher than the previous day's high, after being over 20 points lower most of the day.  After hours it is off its close.

If that is all the bounce that we can expect from a very "dovish" Fed minutes disclosure, what should we expect next week when earnings announcements are likely to be abysmal (note that Alcoa tanked by over 4% after hours).  I would say that the bears are still in charge based on today's market behavior.

Keep the faith, and DON'T BTFD!

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