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With Republicans In Disarray, And No Debt Ceiling Deal, All Eyes Turn To November 18 When The US Runs Out Of Cash

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In the aftermath of Kevin McCarthy's surprising announcement yesterday that he would quit the race for speaker after reportedly telling House Republicans that he is not the one to unite the House Republicans following reports that he did not think he had the 218 votes necessary for the October 29th House vote, the GOP has been in disarray.

According to Reuters, Friday morning House Republicans met behind closed doors "to discuss next steps in their internal leadership battle on Friday morning, the day after the front-runner to lead their chamber abruptly quit the speaker's race."

"Starting this morning, we're looking for a consensus candidate," Representative Darrell Issa told CNBC ahead of the meeting.

It won't be easy: finding a replacement for House Speaker John Boehner has consumed Republicans as Congress faces a series of pressing decisions, from raising the government borrowing authority to funding federal agencies through September.

Further complicating matters is that the House of Representatives is set to take recess next week.

Meanwhile, the power moves behind the scenes have begun. With House Ways and Means Committee Chairman, Paul Ryan, repeatedly saying he would not run, the richest member of Congress, California's Darrell Issa said he was considering running.

"I could potentially be a candidate," Issa said in a separate interview on MSNBC. If no clear candidate emerges, he said, House Republicans should look at replacing all of their leadership positions. Other candidates include Representatives Daniel Webster of Florida and Jason Chaffetz of Utah.

As Reuters reports, Webster has the backing the House Freedom Caucus, a group of about 40 members aligned with the Tea Party movement that calls for lower taxes, less federal spending and reduction of the national debt and budget deficit. Walter Jones, a Republican congressman from North Carolina, on Friday said he supported Webster for the job even as he acknowledged the long odds he faces to win.

"Obviously there's chaos up here right now, and we're going to have to see how it works out," he told CNN.

But while the republicans are optimistic they can circumvent the chaos, others are less sanguine.

The problem, as we explained yesterday, is that there is very little time left before Congress has to decide on how to boost the US debt ceiling, which we breached months ago, and which has just under a month left of "emergency" funding measures left before all the money runs out and the government is forced to prioritize payments, unleashing a rerun of the summer of 2011 when markets tanked on debt ceiling fears and when the US was downgraded by S&P.

As Stone McCarthy calculated, latest projections show the US Treasury with less than $2.0 billion left in its toolkit in the week that starts November 2. Given the uncertainty surrounding these projections that's tantamount to the extraordinary measures being exhausted. Treasury Secretary Lew in his letter said Treasury expects to use up its extraordinary measures "on or about" November 5.

This however, assumes that the GOP will be able to "rise above" the gridlock and elect a speaker who is palatable to everyone, including the vocal Freedom caucus.

So as the posturing for GOP leader takes off over the next 20 days, the biggest problem remains: what happens to the US debt ceiling negotiation when considering that as of this moment the US Treasury has $60 billion left in total available funding.

One answer comes from Bank of America's Lisa Berlin whois not very optimistic.

It is possible that current Speaker Boehner stays in his current role for slightly longer, but he is unlikely to reverse his resignation, in our view. Paul Ryan, who may have been another option for Speaker, has been adamant that he is not interested in the job. House Republicans will need to find a new nominee to be Speaker and, at this point, it is unclear who would have broad enough support to be elected.

 

In our view, this event may make a debt limit increase more difficult to achieve and likely increases the risk of a shutdown in December. It shows the strength of the Tea Party and allied conservatives within the House. These representatives will likely seek significant concessions from the White House and Democrats for raising the debt limit and reaching a budget agreement. The White House, however, has previously indicated that it would favor a "clean" increase in the debt ceiling.

And so the countdown begins to November 18 when SMRA calculates, just before a $14.2 billion in Social Security benefits payments, the US Treasury runs out of all cash.

Keep an eye on T-Bill yields for the turning point when the market decides this situation is becoming serious.

 

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Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:30 | 6649028 Funny Money
Funny Money's picture

Aw, shut the fuck up.  Every time we hear the same old shit, and every time we "run out of money" nothing happens.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:31 | 6649032 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Beat me to it.

 

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:36 | 6649070 Looney
Looney's picture

We ran out of cash $20,000,000,000,000 ago. ;-)

Looney

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:51 | 6649149 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

The beltway bandits are unhappy, this is NOT how it's supposed to work.....

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 13:09 | 6649542 LowerSlowerDela...
LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture

Disarray?!?!?  So, democracy will (possibly) work and people will vote on a House Speaker.  That is disarray?  I'm no huge fan of republicans but this is the system operating properly.  Frick'n story typist moron.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 14:03 | 6649806 Buzz Fuzzel
Buzz Fuzzel's picture

$18 Trillion in known debt and we are just now running out of cash?  Somebody does not understand how borrowing and lending work.

 

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 13:13 | 6649566 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

What exactly is the numerical debt limit? That's right, nobody knows because congress voted to suspend the limit. When they find out how much 'debt' has been added (mostly due to Obamacare) since the treasury quit reporting it last March, they will shit their pants and suspend the limit again. The real numbers shall never be known again. It's none of your fucking business.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:58 | 6649190 SickDollar
SickDollar's picture

Thats what the politicians do , full of shit and air

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:36 | 6649063 Syrin
Syrin's picture

Yellen was overheard saying (between strokes): "I got this"

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 12:01 | 6649198 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Who was she stroking?

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 12:58 | 6649489 Syrin
Syrin's picture

Moochelle

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 13:01 | 6649504 WVHillbilly
WVHillbilly's picture

Hirmself, obviously.  I mean...who else??

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 12:20 | 6649267 Bankruptopia
Bankruptopia's picture

We ran out of money 18 Trillion dollars ago. The only reason that we are noticing it now is because we can't lower interest rates.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:32 | 6649035 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture
"When The US Runs Out Of Cash"

Wake me up when they actually do

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:34 | 6649054 This is it
This is it's picture

What? US is still running out of cash? How many times can it run out of cash before it officially runs out of cash??

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:36 | 6649066 yogibear
yogibear's picture

LOL, just issue more treasuries and then the Federal Reserve buys them and put them off-balance sheet where they just disappear.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 12:07 | 6649222 AGuy
AGuy's picture

""When The US Runs Out Of Cash"  Wake me up when they actually do

December 23..... Nineteen Thirteen!

 

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:33 | 6649045 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Another good reason to abolish cash.  Then the government won't have to worry about running out of it.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:38 | 6649078 Syrin
Syrin's picture

And most people won't have any way to get their money out the bank either.   The central banks endorse and are pushing for a cashless society.   That should make you cringe.   The sheeple aren't sophisticated or knowledgable enough to convert their cash into hard assets like precious metals.   They will be "victims" (of their own stupiity and decades of bad voting choices).

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:43 | 6649106 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Down in "the hood" this whole cahsless thing ain't gonna go down real good.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:55 | 6649175 Syrin
Syrin's picture

Exactly.  It will suck to be the ghetto rich dude when TSHTF

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 12:14 | 6649251 matinee55
matinee55's picture

cash is last freedom left.  Never abolish.  Gov. in charge of whether your allowed to buy & sell.  In charge of your banks accts.  NEVER.  Waiting for your implant then?

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:34 | 6649051 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Take the limit away. Obama can go on a spending spree and double up the debt again.

The Fed loves infinte debt and credit in a finite world.

We have had printing-gone-wild throughout history. 

US dosn't deserve being the reserve currency. It's abused it's privilege for years. 

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:53 | 6649158 froze25
froze25's picture

Any one (private bank) supported by a Gov't who gets that "privilege" will abuse it.  Its the problem with Fiat to begin with and why it always collapses in the end.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:35 | 6649056 Trick Shroadé
Trick Shroadé's picture

Has anyone explained the difference between the debt ceiling and the budget to Ben Carson yet?

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:43 | 6649072 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Maybe someone should explain to you how one directly impacts the other. And don't talk to me about how the debt ceiling only affects money that was already spent.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 12:32 | 6649332 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

"Increasing the debt ceiling does not increase the deficit" - says the man with 50,000$ credit card debt that's been saying the same from 5,000 on his way to 10,000, from 10,000 in his way to 15,000 and so on...

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:38 | 6649057 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm on the edge of my seat. Will the "two sides" come together and save us again by taking on even moar debt? The suspense is killing me.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:35 | 6649058 Trick Shroadé
Trick Shroadé's picture

Has anyone explained the difference between the debt ceiling and the budget to Ben Carson yet?

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:36 | 6649067 BeaverCream
BeaverCream's picture

Your avatar is triggering me today.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:35 | 6649060 boattrash
boattrash's picture

Last year I took a 10 month sabbatical, (for my own survival) so I know what it's like to be out of cash.

With $18 Trillion in debt and $225 Trillion in unfunded liabilities, these motherfuckers are not "out of cash" they're fucking bankrupt!

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:45 | 6649123 yogibear
yogibear's picture

"these motherfuckers are not "out of cash" they're fucking bankrupt!"

The truth of the matter. 

More and more productivity being destroyed.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:35 | 6649062 BeaverCream
BeaverCream's picture

How can you run out of money when you print the shit? 

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:44 | 6649115 yogibear
yogibear's picture

1.) US government issues treasuries to fund the debt.

2.) Federal Reserve prints money then buys the treasuries and places them off balance sheet.

3.) step 1 again.

Nice  counterfeiting game. No productivity gained as non-productive means is used to support SS, welfare and government overhead.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:45 | 6649120 scraping_by
scraping_by's picture

Turn the printing over to a private bank and then pretend you're helpless. It's a good story, and some naifs believe it.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 12:34 | 6649344 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

Yes. If I was counterfeiting currency, I'd like the printing press to be installed in my neighbours' basement, not mine.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:37 | 6649076 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Professor showed a Snowden slide in a lecture, university wants to destroy projector.

https://freedom-to-tinker.com/blog/bgellman/classified-material-in-the-p...

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:39 | 6649091 Pumpkin
Pumpkin's picture

Oh no!  How ever will they infringe upon our rights with no money!!??

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:43 | 6649109 stant
stant's picture

I smell a trillion dalla coin

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:44 | 6649117 nnnnnn
nnnnnn's picture

negative rates and print endless money   

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:47 | 6649129 Mark Mywords
Mark Mywords's picture

11/18 eh? I only see 119, or 911 backwards.

I must have tunnel vision.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:48 | 6649137 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

As if these clowns are not going to vote themselves more coke and hookers? 

 

 

 

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:49 | 6649144 scraping_by
scraping_by's picture

NIRP's all a matter of presentation. The banks declare it a 'transaction fee' or 'maintainence charge' and it just happens to be greater than any interest they say they put it. Works for those dicks at Vanguard.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:55 | 6649172 bshirley1968
bshirley1968's picture

What a joke.  I wonder why Tyler is even giving headlines about this the time of day.  It will be the last one on the subject at which I look.

America : Sheep ruled by wolves that are owned by pigs.

And the pigs are about to get muddier and fatter.  Print on, pigs!

 

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 11:58 | 6649187 stormcrow
stormcrow's picture

The excuse for kicking the can this time will be "We need to give the new speaker time to settle in before taking on any tough fights with the president".

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 12:03 | 6649208 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Cash, cash, cash, there's more to life than cash.  There's sunshine, and birds singing.  I'm doing an IPO on cute puppies, that will lose money but make it up in volume.  Don't worry about cash.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 12:32 | 6649336 Arnold
Arnold's picture

Better follow up with a kitten sweetener.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 12:36 | 6649348 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"I''m doing an IPO on cute puppies, that will lose money but make it up in volume. Don't worry about cash."

As long as you don't run out of OPM (Other People's Money) you do fine! /sarc

 

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 12:05 | 6649213 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

The stall baby. Because these is no free lunch.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 12:06 | 6649214 matinee55
matinee55's picture

USSA running out of cash in a criminal fiat society.  HA HA HA.  Click, click, that ws 200 billion,  NEED MORE CLICKS?

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 12:38 | 6649365 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"USSA running out of cash in a criminal fiat society. HA HA HA. Click, click, that ws 200 billion"

Shhh! You don't want the Sheeple to find that out!

 

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 13:28 | 6649646 silverer
silverer's picture

Running out of cash is a funny statement.  I don't think they have any, technically, and haven't had a moral claim to saying so since the Republicans and Newt Gingrich balanced the budget under Bill Clinton when they actually had a surplus in two of the years Bill was president.  Clinton took office with about a 4 trillion national debt, and left office with it at about 5.2 trillion.  Compared to today, it looks heroic.  So I wouldn't say they are running out of cash.  They are actually running out of the ability to borrow other people's money; which, by the way, is getting more and more difficult for the criminals to do.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 15:55 | 6650360 Borrow Owl
Borrow Owl's picture

"..since the Republicans and Newt Gingrich balanced the budget under Bill Clinton when they actually had a surplus in two of the years Bill was president."

ROTFLMAO!!!


Fri, 10/09/2015 - 12:11 | 6649235 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Someone remind me why these fuckers get paid anything for doing nothing...

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 12:14 | 6649248 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Thy already spent the money.  This is just a decision on whether to offically record it.  Th eidea that the US debt has only gone up a couple hundred billion this year is hilarious.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 12:26 | 6649306 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Who's this we shit .....

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 12:31 | 6649330 Arnold
Arnold's picture

Lemme see.

Yup still checks in the checkbook.

 

 

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Still broke.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 12:32 | 6649335 Grandad Grumps
Grandad Grumps's picture

Wake me on November 19th if there is no deal. Until then, just another B/S distraction to be ignored.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 12:48 | 6649432 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

Issa is a real head hunter but its supports my view that they really want someone from california, which no GOP candidate for president has carried since Reagan. Trump could fit the Reagan mold, but unless they round up the tea party and get them under control (and their medieval social agenda) then the whole thing falls apart. not hard to see what theyre doing and why theyre doing it. they had the deal in 2000 but the house didnt give into bush on immigration, and now Trump has made that his main issue, a deal can be made.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 12:54 | 6649461 SilverFish
SilverFish's picture

CERN destroys the universe on Nov 7th, so no worries.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 12:54 | 6649463 unplugged
unplugged's picture

please - we already know what they are going to do - giving a second of attention to anything those criminal assholes do in DC is a complete waste of a good second

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 13:17 | 6649584 jughead
jughead's picture

I'd like to see a "clean" resignation of the occupants of the white house.  and a pony.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 13:39 | 6649694 Faeriedust
Faeriedust's picture

You will, on January 22, 2016.

It's the beauty of our time-limited dictatorship.  A President has virtually unlimited power EXCEPT the power to remain in office for more than 8 years.  So all things come to an end.

The pony, I can't help you with.

 

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 13:19 | 6649599 silverer
silverer's picture

The US: a totally bankrupt chicken shit outfit, run by adults acting like children who argue all day about how to overspend other people's money.  Coming to an end soon, hopefully.  The US had its turn.  Now, it's somebody else's turn.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 13:37 | 6649686 Faeriedust
Faeriedust's picture

If you want to hasten it on its way, do support calling for a Constitutional Convention.

The beauty of a Convention is

1) It doesn't have to be called by Congress.  If 2/3 of the States vote to demand it, then Congress is CONSTITUTIONALLY REQUIRED to convene it.  And the States get to send all-new reps to it, under any rules for selection that they as States choose to adopt.  The convention is completely a creature of State legislatures, which are far more representative of the overall electorate than federal seats, which are heavily influenced by out-of-state money.

2) It can do ANYTHING. It is not bound by the Constitution or former Amendments to the Constitution or legal history interpreting the Constitution to this point.  It can completely REWRITE the Constitution, taking into account current politics and technology.  It can specify privacy protections that weren't technically conceivable in 1776. It doesn't have to work around the inconvenient and sordid fact of human slavery.  It can update timelines, election, and notice provisions for a world in which communication is instantaneous and delivery from China takes 5 days, not 5 months.  It can make the decision as to whether we are going to be a unified nation, or a loose collection of regional states with a (mostly) common language.

3) If it can't come to an agreement, it can legally and regally dissolve the United States of America into its constituent States, default on the national debt, and invalidate the paper currency.

So believe it or not, there is a way to force the children to admit that they are children, incompetently playing at being adults. With freedom if not justice for all.  Without violence.  Without war. 

Of course, that probably comes later, but that's just human nature.

 

 

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 13:22 | 6649612 Faeriedust
Faeriedust's picture

Issa.  Car thief and insurance fraudster turned "auto security expert".  Put him in charge of the House of Representatives.  Oh, right.  It takes a thief . . .

But really, isn't it a sad statement about our society that a man with such a record can get and stay elected to Congress, let alone now be in the running to lead it?

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 13:34 | 6649669 Arthur Schopenhauer
Arthur Schopenhauer's picture

More Skeletons In Closets?

As if House Republicans didn’t have enough to worry about right now, Congressman Walter Jones (R-NC) is circulating a letter with this simple demand: If you want to be speaker, promise everyone that you don’t have any “misdeeds” in your personal life.

 

 

Congressman warns of 'skeletons in closets'

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 14:40 | 6649997 White Mountains
White Mountains's picture

I don't see how the hell they can run out of money - every quarter they grab 40% of my business earnings at the point of gun with threat of prison time if I don't pay up.  With a business model like that, .GOV should be rolling in money.

Fri, 10/09/2015 - 14:59 | 6650102 Tom_Pain
Tom_Pain's picture

I wonder if there is an exception to the "No-Fly-Zone" over the U.S. Capitol for Ms. Yellen's helicopter.

 

Of course, it's not like anyone would be paid to shoot it down!

Wed, 10/14/2015 - 13:48 | 6667605 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

can't Obama just assume

"emergency authority" to rule by diktat

and "fix" the budget?

Congress has already turned over all kinds of "emergency powers" to the POTUS.

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