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Wholesale Inventories Rise And Sales Tumble Sending Ratio To "Recession Imminent" Cycle Highs
Wholesale Inventories rose 0.1% MoM (more than expected and the most in 7 months) and Sales dropped 1.0% MoM (notably less than expected and weakest in 7 months) sending the inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.31x - new cycle highs - and flashing the brightest recession warning yet. With inventories up 4.2% YoY and Sales down 4.5% YoY, the stunning reality is the absolute dollar spread between inventories and sales has never been bigger.
Inventories keep rising more than expected and sales keep missing...
Sending the Inventories-to-Sales Ratio is firmly in recession territory...
The annual change in these two critical time series screams one thing: inventory liquidation or at least remarking far lower:
In absolute terms the dollar difference between wholesale inventories and sales has never been bigger.
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Black Friday is just around the corner and we can look forward to the best Christmas ever. At least that's what they'll be cramming down our throats over the next few weeks before they start managing expectations downwards.
Followed by the first quarter printing at -3% again.
Stock up for the Holidays!
Transitory.
nah, they asked Santa for a triple seasonal adjustment program...
Santa? Not this administration.
Imam Claus is on the case!
I've grown to really dislike (hate is kinda strong) the holidays simply because of the in-your-face, 24/7 selling pressure from all retailers. Their desperation at getting you to spend and equating that with a great time of year sucks. It's only a matter of days before they start the X-mas music in Target, et al, not to mention the decorations. Heard an ad today encouraging people to refi out all (!!) their home equity so they could consolidate expensive credit cards, have money for the holidays, etc. - just consume and you will be happy!
Amazing how too much debt has fucked up every aspect of society in one way or another.
owebombacare = biggest tax increase on the working class in usa history
As planned. The working class was the duped payee all along.
Another 16% increase for us this year. I hate this fucker.
good point.
biggest ongoing tax increase...
Thank God most Americans are finally getting a true look at the cost of their bloated, excessive, "Spare no cost! Only the best!" healthcare system.
What they're finding is that their healthcare is worth more than they are.
Mmmmmm.... I'm debating whether I should put a /sarc tag on this. At first I thought this might be my first comment ever that might deserve one, now I'm having second thoughts.
Well, doesn't matter. You can always opt-out. Oh, no wait a minute....
The tragically comical fact is that in spite of it costing the most, it doesn't produce the best results.
Such is what happens when spy agencies have the dirt on anyone in a position of high-level decision making capability. After all, 'technically', it fell under the 'commerce clause' and therefore must be ruled accordingly if one is to adhere to Constitutional precept, right...?
This ratio fell between 2001-07 then rose sharply. Now it has been rising slowly since 2010. We are slowly being cooked.
You are correct, fellow frog.
“Freedom/Recession is just another word for nothing left to lose”
Borrow and spend you serfs!...come on! you know you need another flat screen TV, maybe put one in the Newborn's room or a new Iphone...
Etrade baby needs a new iMac trading platform.
Isnt 'recession' now just an irrelevant quaint old notion now with the Feds NIRP? It's not like it's 1972 anymore.
i bet the Dow gets back to 18,000 in time for X-mas
(IF WW3 has not blown wide open by then)
You mean you're actually betting on it by going all in long today? Good luck.
Fed PhDs have to keep pumping up stocks with infinite printed money.
Fed's orchestrating Japan's economy as well as the US.
Abeonomics is Federal Reserve-o-nomics.
Must....Buy.....Moar......Junk....*wheeze*
Good news! Inventories are up so there is plenty of junk to buy!
And money has never been free-er!
One of the canaries in the coal mine:
ZF transmissions is cutting hours at their U.S. plants to under 40/week. Also implemented a hiring freeze in recent weeks.
Beginning of the '16 model year and they're cutting hours???
The 10:30 ramp is pretty tame thus far; but it did start on time.
Punctuality is important.
I'm sure glad we have experts to tell us when things aren't going good, otherwise idiots like me would still think everything was great
Recession imminent? Again?