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The Massive Energy Top
From the Slope of Hope: I'm getting uncomfortable pounding on the same theme over and over again (there's only so many times I can point out the large, looming topping patterns across the board), so I thought I'd mix things up a bit and just get of the price bars entirely and catch up on a trio of exponential moving averages to show how things have turned south, irrespective of the gargantuan, quadruple-point rally on the Dow. Here are the Industrials:
The even-more-important Dow Composite:
And the S&P 500:
I'll be the first one to admit that the moving averages looked very similar to this in October 2011, after which time we simply kept soaring higher. But - dare I say it? - it's different this time! OK, OK, stop throwing rotten vegetables at me. I'm serious.
Even more enticing to me is the shape of the energy sector, which has been simply nuked:
I have vastly expanded my short holdings over the course of this week, and if we (finally) start re-weakening this week, I'm going to augment my favorite positions. As I suggested, my favorite sector is (once again) energy, as giants like Exxon are exhibiting topping patterns that strike me as once-a-generation type opportunities.
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Get caught wrong footed by geo-political shenanigans, and get your face ripped off in the short squeeze.
TPTB will blow your stops, grind your bones to make their bread, then put it back where it was in anticipation
of the next brave mouse looking for the cheese.
http://www.nasdaq.com/earnings/report/xom
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=XOM+Interactive#{%22allowChartStacking%22:true}
You think that third quarter report is going to beat?
My Magic 8 ball says no.
Evidently the best strategy here would be an aggressively neutral investing stance.
Not Monday or Tuesday, I think. Better wait until the second half of next week. Crude may top out Tues or Weds.
With algos, and fat fingers, and bad is good... it's 50/50, and it has precious little to do with charts anymore.
Long shorts, with a short short hedge maybe?!?
I see three picture perfect downside patterns in a row. The fourth was broken to the upside at $76.54. Wouldn't recommend going short here. May get a minor pullback from this level on the way up. But what the fuck do I know? NOTHING! DYODD on the TA on this manipulated security. 3.8% yield.
Have a great day!
Having lived through the manipulation of the last 25 years, it's probably a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get long.
Joking aside, USA oil production is falling rapidly and the geopolitics are definitely shaping up more favorably for oil and PM's.
Having lived through the manipulation of the last 25 years, it's probably a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get long.
Joking aside, USA oil production is falling rapidly and the geopolitics are definitely shaping up more favorably for oil and PM's.
Something is trying and succeeding in finding a sub basement location for these guys.
No, the Exxon chart top was 2014. If you short it now you're right into resistance, it may or may not break out, but the point is a rollover and breakdown right here isn't the best of risks at the moment. If it breaks down to the last prior low please don't proclaim victory because 'once in a lifetime' is a bullshit statement.
I was scratching my head trying to figure out if this guy new the difference between a top and a bottom, or had made a typo....."massive top"????wtf?
Can't help to wonder why not more are not "shorting"...Personally, I like "shorting" retail in general.
for lease and going out of business signs, all over the place
My hat's off to you Tim, shorting into this volititility - I have one lukewarm short in, but still holding a lot of dry powder. The market can stay irrational a lot longer than I can stay solvent. (Wish I'd made that up...)
Made some good $ in August and early this month, now pulled back during the predictable rally. I'm probably wrong, but I think before this month is over a real shorting opportunity will present itself. I'm long Exxon, will probably dispose of some next week for more dry powder. The 'correction' is coming, but timing is everything.
But it's a great game, keeps my mind more or less engaged.
well youve got the general equity market behind you, but im not sure we arent getting lots of QE right now as we speak.energy is like gold when it gets beat up the shares move into stronger hands. and i like the move in the gold miners right now.