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AsiaPac Stocks Tumble After Chinese Trade Data Signals Growing Global Growth Scare

Tyler Durden's picture




 

After an initial knee-jerk reaction (perhaps on better-than-expected exports - signalling perhaps the devaluation 'worked), AsiaPac stocks are tumbling rapidly as the 11th monthly decline in imports (down a stunning 17.7% YoY in Yuan terms) signaling significant domestic weakness (and thus a larger drag on global growth).

As Bloomberg reports,

China’s imports extended the longest losing streak in six years, underscoring the headwinds to global growth from a rebalancing in the world’s second-largest economy and declining commodity prices.

 

Imports plunged 17.7 percent in yuan terms in September, widening from a 14.3 percent decrease in August and an 11th straight decline. Overseas shipments fell 1.1 percent in September in yuan terms, the customs administration said Tuesday, compared with a 6.1 percent drop in August. The trade surplus was 376.2 billion yuan ($59.4 billion).

 

 

The import slide reflects the pressure China’s economic slowdown is having on global growth and this year’s plunge in commodity prices. On the export side, signs of stabilization suggest improved external demand and offers the first indication that the People’s Bank of China’s surprise devaluation of the yuan in August is giving a boost to competitiveness.

 

"Import growth remained sluggish, suggesting weakening domestic demand, particularly investment demand," said Yang Zhao, China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. "We maintain our view that GDP growth will decline to 6.7 percent in the third quarter.”

Of course, policymakers are out with more promises...

  • *DJ China Customs Spokesman: Weaker Yuan to Help Boost Exports

Which we are sill sound an awful lot like currency manipulation to The US Congress.

 

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Mon, 10/12/2015 - 22:55 | 6661341 HyeM
HyeM's picture

“Imports plunged 17.7 percent in yuan terms in September, widening from a 14.3 percent decrease in August and an 11th straight decline”…signaling weakening demand.

Does that drop and the overall downward trend mean the Squids forecast is about to happen: Glencore’s demise if commodities drop 5% ? Is this uber-slow-moving train wreck of a “market” rally about to go down the tubes?

Are we there yet?

Mon, 10/12/2015 - 23:01 | 6661365 JackT
JackT's picture

And..those are the numbers they released

Tue, 10/13/2015 - 00:19 | 6661609 remain calm
remain calm's picture

Sum Ting Wong in China, Weili Wong

Tue, 10/13/2015 - 02:43 | 6661824 philipat
philipat's picture

None of the numbers mean anything. IF Chiua's economy is still growing at 6%, and all the other MAJOR economies are still growing at slower rates, that means commodity volumes, including oil, should still be growing but at lower rates reflecting and commensurate with slower world GDP growth. This relationship between commodities and Global GDP worked for decades. Now, not so much. Commodities are all down over 50% and oil more so from its peaks,

So, ether:

  1. World GDP data is a complete sham.
  2. Commodity prices are all being manipulated via paper futures markets by TPTB for geopolitical reasons (Russia etc) with "Allies" such as Canada and Australia representing collateral damage.
  3. All of the above
Mon, 10/12/2015 - 23:03 | 6661353 SloMoe
SloMoe's picture

At some point, someone outside ZH is going to care about this. Much bigger deal than, for example, Greece...

Mon, 10/12/2015 - 23:09 | 6661384 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

I'd be very interested in seeing import and export quantity numbers of specific categories of goods, as opposed to unified financial ones. Even so, the balance of trade is being maintained by burning industrial seed corn and thus droppping imports faster than the exports are falling. If oil recovers in price, the balance will take a major hit. Add in the undocumented financials fleeing at 10-20 billion a month and China could soon be looking at negative numbers in reality. Could be there already.

Also, why does anybody need precooked propaganda numbers to judge the world economy by? A quick stroll down any shopping district anywhere gives you all the proof you need.

 

Tue, 10/13/2015 - 05:46 | 6661961 Seer
Seer's picture

Not sure that one has to get so close as to be consuming the food to discover that it's rotten.  That is, I think that there's plenty of smell out there to back it all up.  One can look at the key resource trading partners, like Australia.  What do Australia's export numberrs to China look like?

For me, the real measure is based in raw materrials, either energy or copper/iron etc..  China "might" be consuming more of it's  own intenral resources, but for the global economy, which is what we're talking about here, it would seem clear that with less going in to China that there's less coming out; and with less input and output that necessarily means less global growth.

One can stick around to see how fast the ride impacts the ground, or one can see that the ride is no longer under our control and gravity has us locked in, in which case NOW is always the answer to the question: When to get out/jump?

But, yeah, I think that you're aware of the smell!

Tue, 10/13/2015 - 06:24 | 6661992 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

The real world cannot be used to guage sentiment. This is NOT acceptable data....

Mon, 10/12/2015 - 23:08 | 6661391 AntiFabian
AntiFabian's picture

Notice Wall St selling oil and betting on oil back at 60 plus per barrel soon.  Ain't happening and my bet after looking at options is they have bought plenty of shorts on oil after it shot up.

Mon, 10/12/2015 - 23:10 | 6661396 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

OT:

Why has there been a virtual MSM and alternative media blackout of the recent bombing in Turkey?

Zero Hedge has not even posted a single article on it.

No regular poster has even commented on this seemingly out of character omission by Zero Hedge.

 

 

Tue, 10/13/2015 - 03:04 | 6661847 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Thanks, don't know how I missed these.

Mon, 10/12/2015 - 23:22 | 6661442 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

I saw stuff all over the place. And, the Turkish media has been shut down about it.

Tue, 10/13/2015 - 01:40 | 6661777 laomei
laomei's picture

Just kick china out of the WTO and be done with it already.  They never held up their end in any way and have ignored every rule.  It's the Chinese way.  Let the worm shrivel and die.

Tue, 10/13/2015 - 03:41 | 6661850 Batman11
Batman11's picture

In the good old days the Western consumer provided the demand that kept the world going.

Unfortunately, Western “wealth creators” created wealth for themselves by taking it from the Western consumer through outsourcing.

The “wealth creators” promptly retired to their luxury yachts in 2008, when the days of easy profit came to an end, leaving it to national institutions, Central Banks and Governments, to sort out the mess.

It has not even occurred to the IMF to call on the “wealth creators” to get their fingers out.

What would be the point, where is the easy profit today?

As we keep looking at rigged markets buoyed up by Central Bank intervention, we are failing to recognise the current problem is lack of demand in a world of oversupply leading to deflation. 

How is the global consumer base these days?

1) The once wealthy Western consumer has had all their high paying jobs off-shored. As a stop gap solution they were allowed to carry on consuming through debt. They are now maxed out on debt.

2) Japanese consumers have been living in a stagnant economy for decades.

3) Chinese and Eastern consumers were always poorly paid and with nonexistent welfare states are always saving for a rainy day. Western demand slumped in 2008 and the debt fuelled stop gap has now come to an end.

4) The Middle Eastern consumers are now too busy fighting each other to think about consuming anything and are just concerned with saying alive.

5) South American and African consumers are busy struggling with economies that are disintegrating fast.

Oh dear.

Tue, 10/13/2015 - 04:19 | 6661895 Aussie Battler
Aussie Battler's picture

If property prices didn't only go up in Australia I might be concerned by this!

Tue, 10/13/2015 - 05:51 | 6661966 Seer
Seer's picture

I know folks in Australia and Canada.  It's really hard to not look at them and yell RUN!  Folks just never seem to understand that that receding water that has exposed all those nice sea shells is gonna be coming back HARD and FAST!

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