This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
VIXtermination Lifts Stocks To Longest Winning Streak Of 2015 Despite Crude Carnage
Does anyone else feel like this market resembles the following...
Ain't no stopping us now...
- The Dow is up 7 days in a row now - its longest winning streak since mid-Dec 2014
- Nasdaq up 8 of the last 9 days - breaking above its 50DMA
- VIX down 10 days in a row (longest streak since Oct 2010)
Futures give us a sense of today's Columbus Day trading (which was extremely quiet)..
Once Europe closed US equities traded in an extremely narrow range...
VIX was crushed again for the 10th day in a row (longest streak since oct 2010) and back below the key 200-day moving average...
With VIX pushing a 15 handle, it may be worth remembering Goldman's baseline VIX levels of 18 would be justified given the current U.S. economic landscape.
Notably VIX entirely decoupled from stocks today...
VXX (The VIX ETF) is back at 9/17 lows, filling the gap again to Black Monday...
Trannies and crude decoupled...breaking that narrative...
Eli Lilly dropped 8% today - its biggest drop since Dec 2008...finding significant support at around $79
While the bond (and credit) markets are closed today, we thought a glance at Dell CDS (which soared on Friday) would be worthwhile (considering it is about to add $50bn more debt to its balance sheet!!!)...
For some context on relative bond market moves, Treasury futures infer the following (30Y -4bps, 10Y -3bps, 5Y -2bps)...One wonders iof last week's bond dumpage was rate-locks ahead of EMC/Dell's huge issuance
And while we are looking at the bond market, the up/downgrade ratio has not been this low (more downgrades than upgrades) since the peak of the crisis in 2009... (year-to-date S&P has upgraded 188 entities and downgraded 348)
As Dow Jones reports,
Rising downgrades and an increase in U.S. corporate defaults indicate " some cracks on the surface" of the domestic-growth outlook, said Jody Lurie, corporate credit analyst at financial-services firm Janney Montgomery Scott LLC. Many investors closely monitor debt-market trends as an indicator of U.S. economic health.
In August and September, Moody's Investors Service issued 108 credit-rating downgrades for U.S. nonfinancial companies, compared with just 40 upgrades. That's the most downgrades in a two-month period since May and June 2009, the tail end of the last U.S. recession.
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services downgraded U.S. companies 297 times in the first nine months of the year, the most downgrades since 2009, compared with just 172 upgrades. Meanwhile, the trailing 12-month default rate on lower-rated U.S. corporate bonds was 2.5% in September, up from 1.4% in July of last year, according to S&P.
About a third of the downgrades targeted oil and gas companies or firms in other commodity-linked industries, following a plunge in oil prices in the second half of 2014, said Diane Vazza, head of global fixed-income research at S&P
FX markets were dull with the USD ending flat against the majors (and an oddly linear drift lower in USDJPY)...
Commodities were generally quiet with gold rising and crude tumbling...
WTI Crude fell over 4.5% - its worst day since September 1st (after the epic Andy Hall ramp into August month-end)...
Notably both USO (oil ETF) and OVX (oil Volatility) appears to have reached critical levels...after decoupling at month-end on what looks like massive hedging...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: *FORTRESS SAID TO PLAN CLOSING DOWN MACRO HEDGE FUND?
- 18699 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -

















VIXtermination?
Nothing to do with unlimited electronic money that allows the Plunge Protection team and the Central Banks to buy stocks, futures, etc, etc ??
Fuckem
Let them buy it ALL.
I hope they choke on it, otherwise we deserve everything we get. Stop buying their shit, their stocks, their products, their line of crap. Let them buy it all in the hope it will induce confidence, while we simply look away.
The reality is that we really need so very little.
This game just isn't fun anymore.
I think I might just quit.
Thank god everything is fixed now. I'm going to keep putting all my money into a leveraged S&P index fund and use my saving from the oil price drop to finance a new GM vehicle for 7 years with today's awesomely low interest rates. FOREWARD!
Rolls of quarters and nickles for me
Rents in what were the world’s most expensive shopping streets have dropped by as much as 40 per cent as the impact of China’s slowing economy on Hong Kong’s once-booming luxury goods industry deepens.
From Prada to Gucci-owner Kering, companies in the sector are calling on landlords to cut sky-high rents, raising the prospect that store closures will accelerate.
A shop previously occupied by Jaeger-LeCoultre in Causeway Bay is being replaced by a local discount cosmetics retailer that has negotiated a lease about 40 per cent cheaper than the deal agreed by the high-end watchmaker in 2012.
“There’s a grim macro background to what’s going on,” said Simon Smith, head of research for property agent Savills in Hong Kong.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6ae6068a-70b2-11e5-9b9e-690fdae72044.html?ftca...
Is this liftoff?
The S&P was up 0.13% yesterday, while VXX was smacked down 7.73%... Nothing like free markets to entice the retail investor to step up to the table and roll the dice... If you believe that, I have a nice bridge to no where for sale, cheap... Only $10 billion Yellen Bucks...
If there's anything that is moar' rigged than the gold and silver market it's the VIX.
If a PPT was stratedically buying futures you'd expect to see a little more than a tight trading range in the Spoos.
Short TNA Calls pretty deep in the money here and long TNA puts.....double short and starting to feel a wee bit over levereaged....fuck it, only live once. Hope I can out roll this steam roller
Such a slow day, not even worth a parody, though RUT was a parody of itself, in the past such low volume would have seen it easily blast to the Daily Keltner limit ~73 (though some bears will think the current level near the monthly 20MA as a near-term ceiling). Of major indices, only SPY has respectable Daily DMI, though it sits at the Daily Keltner top as we speak, which it hasn't managed to pierce since mid-December.
Though you may well be sitting pretty, one growing worry is a QE4 rumor or an actual Europe or Asian QE boost would be enough to allow 'performance painting' hedge funds, most with shitty numbers YTD, to manipulate this smaller index higher to save their years. Intraday action has been worthless for over a week now, but persistently goosing higher, hopefully related to OPEX, if not something may be a-brewin'. Think you're OK, but as they say "be careful out there ..."
All we can do on days like today is learn from them. Only had two trades today, both long. First I didn't bother waiting to get stopped out, recognised the flag type pattern as bearish. The second was the late-day rally which I caught late, and exited late too LOL
My feeling was the markets were relatively strong, given weakeness in energy.
Given how stressful trading can be, it may make sense to forego altogether these quasi-holidays when bonds are closed, I can't remember any of them having 'normal' action or volume, so all the techniques we've spent years developing are bound to fall flat. It's been so crappy since the Fed punt, almost as bad as 2Q when days were perfectly horizontal, I just hope we don't have to wait until after Fri's OPEX to get a standard move. Still, VERY likely we'll either get a retrace to lower DMAs, or a surprise jump up, before the week ends, lots of coffee to avoid going to sleep and missing it ...
Big few days ahead for earnings + pressure building in 'coiled spring' indices + OE = good reason for strong move(s)
I think they ran out of shorts this past week to propell this whore higher...most are probably licking their wounds at this point, but I have been known to be wrong...or a fucking idiot LOL, just ask my wife who makes 1/30 of my income, but somehow is always right...but she's a 9 out of 10 so I just nod my head and say yes dear...up to a point, then I roar like the bear I am and she STFU.....for a minute....then rinse and repeat once the female dementia kicks in...secret to 15 years of happy marriage
All of your well explained points are why I'm feeling a little bit over leveraged here. Kinda pissed I didn't buy more at that bottom last week and just sit on half of it, geesh, woulda shoulda coulda, everything changes in a day. This rally was a shit, low quality, pump and I know it...I'll chase the reversal for a few more weeks before I bend over for a Yellening...damnd the torpedos
Still think 70% chance we don't go beyond low-70s TNA before revisiting 20MA a few times.
If you're like me (and it seems you are), it's often hard to be "objective" given how much we disagree with sillly-ass world CB policies, not just the market impact but in the stagnation ZIRP has caused as they hide behind counter-factual "Bernanke was better than an asteroid strike" mentality, so it's easy to over-rate shorting opps, given how few there've been since 2009. I LOVE when TZA trades work, and often have to talk myself into full TNA positions, which feel, somehow, as clean as a public bathroom ...
Yep...the thing that keeps me up at night is imagining I missed the turn on this pig... I got it right in 2006 shorting housing, but I only road it down 20% from where it ultimately ended...still using leaps, that was a very nice haul, but this go around, I want to be balls deep in the fraud before I pull the trigger and give TPTB the finger and a strong slap on the ass. Want a bumper sticker along the lines of "Keep pushing, I'm Re-shorting"
On a day like this I wish I trade CL instead of ES. End of contract often seems to be fun with oil.
fake ass manipulated fraudulent fucking Fraud Markets...
Hey Moneychanger and Wall St. fucks.....
IT AINT WORKING....FUCK OFF....
Every day a hedge fund goes belly up is a good day.
Well, I guess things are great for those in the 1% 'club'. Robbing from the plebs will continue.
FEARLESS
the only thing we have to fear is the failure of government itself, or at least the public acknowledgement of failure (we all know it has already failed)
In the immortal words of "The Vixterminator"
"I'll be back..."
"Kill VIX" pic on header - LOL!
Maybe some of that "found" $3.2 Trillion of FED (Wizard of Oz) debt is allocated to crushing the VIX?
Pretty easy lever to pull; smoke, flames, or both?
"Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!"
Another day of algos playing chess and zombie buybacks.
......just a waffer thin mint....
Vixtermination (or vixnado, same thing) was covered about midway through my Crony Capitalism 101 course last year.
All this good news makes me want to run out to the stores and buy - NOTHING!
And I remember there is one site that said VXX is going much higher....
mmm...that was at level of 32....mmmm
now it's 20 ....it's a 38% carnage...
mmm...interesting...
Ask yourself - are you levverred up enough?
What would happen if everyone got as many credit cards from the major banks; apply at the same time and then maxed them out by buying hard assets, then defaulting because we can't print our way out of debt. Would that be enough to bring the whole enchilada down? Any thoughts. Would be fun, but dishonest as they are, which means I am just supposing.
US futures rally yet again as everything is closed Dax up 50 joins the stench
VIX is trading around its long term average, and I'm not seeing long term average data. Guessing it's just catching up to the shortstermination from last week. I'd be a buyer of (more) VIX at these levels if I wasn't already a holder.
Are you holding November, December or perhaps January? I have a outstanding order on VXX Dec. $25; just waiting for the price to come to me; it is getting close.
Not one for thinking of VIX as having a long-term average, I tend to look at SPX/VXO ratio which is still rising.
As a VIX trader, I'd guess you could buy VIX calls on a day it's hammered?
The Powers That Are cannot allow this market to drop now; they are in DEFCON 1 (most severe) and the next major drop they may not be able to control. These markets are so messed up that the smallest of catalyst could send it into the abyss. At that point, the world will change forever and in many places it will be every person for themselves.
We are near the time of Jacob's trouble and for most of you that is a terrible thing, for it is the worse thing imaginable to fall into the hands of THE angry God. One would be better to be skinned piece by piece by piece till they bled to death than to face Almighty God without being reconciled via Jesus. It is so simple that a child can understand simple faith. Do not harden your hearts. People there is a Creator of all that you see and know in your hearts; quit putting your head in the sand and humble yourselves before your Creator; He loves you and salvation is simply this "to know Him". Those who have faith in Jesus are joint heirs with Him; want to be rich beyond your wildest imagination? Then...give up, just give up and throw yourselves upon the cross. He accepts you "just as you are & where you are" when you come to Him with a heart of repentance and child-like faith and the radical transformations of people's lives are documented throughout human history hour.
Listen to Him:
"The word is near you, in your mouth and in your heart" that if you confess with your mouth the Lord Jesus and believe in your heart that God has raised Him from the dead, you will be saved. (HOW?) For with the heart one believes unto righteousness (judicial term - declared guiltless in His court), and with the mouth confession is made unto salvation. For the Scripture says, "Whoever believes on Him will not be put to shame." For there is no distinction between Jew and Greek, for the same Lord over all is rich to all who call upon Him. For "whoever calls on the name of the Lord shall be saved."- Romans 11
I know many will mock this and that is okay, for it is not I to whom you will mock, but rather the one who sent me and He cannot be mocked successfully. I once was a drunkard, fornicator, drug abuser and believed I was a "Good person". I lied and thought nothing of it, I stole albeit petty, I cheated on tests and blamed others for things I was responsible for. That life describes many of you and it was a life full of anger and strife, but now I look back and see myself for who I was; it was when I saw Jesus for who He is and that He is the standard of morality to which I will be judged, but I confessed my sins befor Him and cried out for forgiveness and asked that He change me from the inside out and He did; I gave up!
The life I once lead I now hate, the things I thought were "fun" I count as loss. I was not even seeking Him and did not even think I was any different than anyone else; just not as bad as everyone else, but I was wrong. The standard we will all be measured against is written in our hearts, in our conscience, do not lie, do not cheat, do not steal, do not covet, do not murder etc, but that is what we say we desire because it leads to peace, but it is not what we practice because we have a nature in opposition to the law and to God. It is not about following a set of laws and some formula; it is about dying to self and living for Jesus to be cleansed by His righteousness and it is a GIFT to whoever calls upon Him.
LIVE FOR ETERNITY - DIE TO SELF https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VC9PlvKwz4I
For those interested in more about Dell's acquisition of EMC and the 5 year CDS. Hard to find info on this stuff. Perhaps Dell plans to "go out of business" within 5 years.
EMC Acquisition Sends Dell CDS Widerhttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/fitch-solutions-emc-acquisition-sends-d...S&P500 Bears will have the upper hand for the next two weeks in my view. Be careful with longs.
I don't trade VXX, but what they do to that product is amazing.
http://tripstrading.com/2015/10/10/sp500-suffering-from-low-energy/
http://tripstrading.com/2015/10/09/sp500-how-cycles-take-their-time/
http://tripstrading.com/2015/10/08/sp500-tripstrading-cycle-model-3/