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Biotechs Bruised & Trannies Trounced As VIX 'Losing' Streak Comes To An End
Today's market analogy... (hint - gets exciting at around 40 seconds)
We dumped (on China data, major CNH weakness into China close, and European data), we pumped (because markets opened in 'Murica) and we dumped again (when Europe closed and overnight high stops were tagged) on absolutely no news whatsoever...
Ugly day for Trannies, dumped into the close...
Just as we warned...WTF was going on yesterday?
From Friday, The Dow was sustained green for as long as possible as Trannies got trounced...
VIX's 10-day "losing" streak has come to an end...
VIX is catching 'up' to stocks...
As it appears VXX found support having re-filled the Black Monday gap...
Biotechs were battered and broke a key support trendline... (prepare for the Hillary-bashing)
Ahead of the big banks' earnings, credit markets remain notably more concerned...
Stocks seemed to track Crude perfectly - giving up on USDJPY and bonds After Europe Closed...
With the re-opening of the bond market, buyers returned (as it appears Dell/EMC rate locks have been completed)...
The USDollar trod water for the second day against the majors (despite major AUD weakness)...
But soared 0.4% against Asian FX - its biggest gain in 7 weeks...
Gold and silver gained on the day, jumping at the US open after weakness overnight, while crude and copper slid...
Crude dumped on China trade data then bounced at the US open on algo-idiocy, before fading back... biggest 2-day loss in 2 months...
Gold & Silver dropped on China Trade then ripped after the 8amET witching hour...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: Rate-hikes are disappearing over the horizon again...
Bonus Bonus Chart: What's Next? (h/t @StockCats )
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First!
From the the Movie "the Fly"
BE Afraid.. HAHAHAHA!!!!!
Bruce Trans-Jenner got trounced???? ;-)
Michelle Obama will get you if you continue picking on trannies. Ask Joan Rivers.
Trannies trounced?
sounds like some domestic abuse going on the WH
Michelle? you mean the First (LOL) Lady?
Wookie..
At least you had something intelligent to add.
gee...
wonder what is causing the phony paper price of Silver to trade in such a narrow 2-5 cent range just below $16 per oz...i mean its not like there is any investor demand for the only other form or REAL money...at least thats what some idiot told me over here a few days ago....
"Silver futures advanced for a third straight session amid signs of tightening supply as demand rises. The U.S. Mint, Royal Canadian Mint, Perth Mint, Austrian Mint and British Royal Mint are placing limits on silver-coin sales, pointing to “considerable tightness” in the market, the Silver Institute said in a report Tuesday. Lead times have been stretched from immediate delivery to three to four weeks in some cases, an “unusual occurrence,” the group said. Gold futures also rose.
“Demand has been huge” for silver, said Peter Thomas, a senior vice president at Zaner Group LLC, a metals broker in Chicago, “We’re selling as much product as we’re getting in. I’ve been almost four months behind now” on deliveries, he said. Silver futures for December delivery gained 0.3 percent to settle at $15.907 an ounce at 1:50 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices have risen 2 percent in 2015, making the metal one of only two raw materials that have climbed this year on the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Gold futures for December delivery rose 0.1 percent to $1,165.40 an ounce on the Comex. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, palladium and platinum fell.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-13/gold-drops-from-seven-...
Premium on silver coins is around 20% at my closest dealer. That's 19 $ over, as compared to under 16 $ the "official" price. On the plus side, there's no waiting time...
"Rudolph the Red-Close Algo" (A Christmas Carol)
You know Thrasher and Dancer and Prankster and VIX-Smash,
Vomit and Stupid and Con-’Em and Blitz-‘Em
But do you recall
The most famous algoritm of all?
Rudolph the Red-Close Algo
Caused a very dicey close
And when Pisani saw him
He wouldn’t say “we’re off the lows”
All of the other algos
Used to ramp, then call him names
They never let poor Rudolph
Join in any VWAP games
Then one Fall as VIX-Smash thieved
Santelli came to say
“Rudolph, at the close tonight
Won't you prove that ZIRP ain’t right?”
Then all the algos joined him
As they routed longs with glee
“Rudolph the Red-Close Algo
You got down to S3 !”
Legitimate bond traders crowded out by the algos ... who woulda expected it ?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-12/treasuries-wilder-than-ever-as-ultra-fast-bond-traders-rise-up
so VIX up almost 10% and ES down less than 1%.....just like the old days, setting up for another VIX crush to touch ATH...lemme see....maybe right around AAPL's crappy earnings.
No fear. There's the Christmas rally on deck.
Next thing the 12 fed banksters talk about is helicopter money.
To promote it they can make it a circus act.
Print out a few million and have specially painted made bright green helicopters with dollar signs on it.
William Dudley can have it fly around NYC and CNBC would go apeshit, pumping up stocks.
Sounds crazy, but It's not impossible with a desperate Federal Reserve.
Bulls feeling a little thunderstruck at the moment me thinks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHrkO46ERP8
See, you had nothing to worry about (except ~10:30 today :) ). It looks like today was enough to get Daily DMI to flip over to red in QQQs and RUT, and fairly low amplitude green in SPY. Many will wonder if this is it (return to the lows), or if another 20 DMA bounce is in order. For some reason, recent action seems suspicious, but we Russell traders are always paranoid ...
Yes, it was a white knuckle ride in the morning, but I held the line. Right around 10:56 I had immediate flashbacks of 6/12 and 9/17....classic RUT pump and dump...a bullshit spike at the open against all rational to flush out the maximum number of shorts and then the relentless sell programs kick in. Sold against every put I had going into the close...hopefully we get more downside to complete those spreads but if not, at this point they are on the house 2x over. All of the sells were a cakewalk even with the "published" bid asks being off balance but still being executed so maybe some spoofing going on there which leads me to believe more downside ahead. We are within pretty close reach of the 20dma. The short calls were the real bagger today, just need to hold these levels or lower to clean up for the week. Still a lot of time left and you are right, the action seems a little suspect but I keep thinking, if there ever was a day for a reversal, today was it...shorts got ran out all last week and previous Friday, then this pump at the open to burn any new recruits then wham. A lot can change by Friday, but if you look at the IWM Put open intrest, it is massive all up and down the chain and has been for some time....I was starting to worry that might be dumb money, but after today it is looking smarter and smarter...time will tell. Hope you got in on some of the action today, if you made any trade after 11:15 it was a winner...not many times we can say that about a short RUT trade.
Edit: And it turned right at the Keltner Top, so...you might be onto something ;)
Yes, both HRLY and 15m K-tops coincided in the turn (w/ a 2.0 factor, some use 1.5), though I was afraid we'd see a run for the Daily K-top given the pathetic opening volume, apparently bigger shorts stepped aside and waited. Rode TZA down some, but not with a full position, was waiting for that big 1:00 bar to be retraced to VWAP ~1:30 and it never came, so forced to dance with a shorter partner today (that's OK, I'm not very tall myself). I gave myself an "A" for last week's difficult trading, beating all my methods, but must honestly give myself a "C" on a curve today, too much 2m chart-watching, missing the bigger picture. The good news is that "elegant" solution I mentioned a while back is tracking at double the profit of my prior method through 75 days backtested, so if I can get myself to forget the old tactics, wihich had more trades, higher commisions and half the profit, I'll be fine. Should be easy, right :)
Finally, a longer-term, monthly chart method I came up with for rebalancing my IRA is close to a sell signal in IWM with SPY not far behind, the last ones were 1Q and 2Q of 2008, respectively. Too soon to tell, but MUCH bigger things may lie just ahead ...
The early stop-running left some high-n-dry ES, some classic action there.
The last 75min fake-out provided the double whammy for the bulls.
You guys trading TZA were in the zone today LOL
It seems algos nearly always choose a mid-day turn after a big, multi-day bull run, to ensure they squeeze out every last bit of human liquid from the trading gears. At least today moved, portions of last week were like the summer doldrums ...
"Intel profit falls 6.3 percent as demand for it's chips remains weak"
Stock up 2 cents after hours. If their profit would have fallen 10% the stock would be rallying right now.
I guess reality just hit them. It is now down 3%
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/13/us-usa-fed-bullard-idUSKCN0S71...
Bullard says 'tough' for Fed to reverse course and hike rates in October
WASHINGTON | By Howard Schneider
It will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to switch gears after only one month of additional data and raise rates at its October meeting, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Tuesday.
Bullard supports a rate hike and opposed the decision to delay when the Fed met in September, but said, as a practical matter, the economic data since released is unlikely to convince other policymakers to increase rates when the Fed meets in two weeks.
"It is very tough for the committee to make a big decision and then change it after only one meeting," Bullard said. "Roughly speaking the data has not been that different from what would have been expected, and the jobs report was weaker."
Bullard’s comments and call for higher rates and a return to "orthodox" monetary policy highlighted the breadth of the divide at the U.S. central bank over how to respond to signs of weak global demand. On Monday, Fed governor Lael Brainard warned “deflationary” trends around the world could have a larger-than-expected effect on the United States, and said the Fed should watch and wait until it is clear that won’t happen.
Though 13 of 17 policymakers at the September meeting said they expect a rate hike this year, there is an active debate over the risks from abroad, and what conclusion to draw from a recent disappointing jobs report. Fed officials have said a slowdown in job creation is to be expected as the economy approaches full employment.
The worry is that the drag from abroad could intensify, hurt U.S. growth, and push job creation even lower.
Bullard, however, criticized efforts to respond too explicitly to global events, arguing that markets have largely priced in a strong dollar, low oil prices and other global developments. He said policymakers should focus instead on the fact that the zero interest rate policy set during a financial crisis is inappropriate for an economy with a 5.1 percent unemployment rate and inflation that will inevitably move higher.
“The die has been cast. We are going to have extremely accommodative policy for two to three years,” assuming a gradual increase in the federal funds rate towards more normal levels, Bullard said. “The risk is that you stay with emergency settings way beyond the time emergency settings are required, with unknown consequences. So the simple thing to do is edge your policy back to normal.”
Of course BullTard goes along with the doves, he's one of them.
Poor trannies.
They tumble, they soar (ever seen a flying tranny?) and they get trounced. And that's on top of the bother of the make-up, high heels, hormones, and pavement hours. Never a dull moment.
There it is again. "As the economy approaches full employment"
Can't this site delete that phrase when it appears? It's causing muscle damage on a wide scale.
As WTI goes so does equities. Almost there.
LMAO @ 'Bonus Chart'....
If that was a Gartner chart, the dude in the lower left corner should have been sporting a fifth of Scotch, just to make it official...
Rates are bout to jump start. But first stocks need a corrective wave.
After that, the bond outflow will stimulate equities, one more Higher High into 2016.
http://tripstrading.com/2015/10/10/sp500-suffering-from-low-energy/
http://tripstrading.com/2015/10/13/sp500-time-to-panic/
http://tripstrading.com/2015/10/09/sp500-how-cycles-take-their-time/
http://tripstrading.com/2015/10/06/sp500-1987-vs-2011-vs-2015-pattern-of...
http://tripstrading.com/2015/10/08/sp500-tripstrading-cycle-model-3/
Astrology... really????