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What Keeps Neil Howe Up At Night: An Interview With The Author Of "The Fourth Turning"
"Underproduction, undercapacity, deflation, currency wars, demographics, falling birth rates" - those are the biggest fears which Fourth Turning author, and head of Saeculum Research Neil Howe, lays out in this interview excerpt courtesy of RealVision TV.
While Howe goes on an interesting tangent on the one topic that will surely be absent from all presidential debates, namely the fact that migration into the US is "actually in huge decline", and that the largest immigrant group into the US is Asian (after all someone has to buy those luxury NYC condos), what is more interesting are Howe's parallels of the current economic situation to the Great Depression: "whole areas of the world no longer having a global superpower, no longer having global institutions that enforce orders so you have these huge areas of failed states and power vacuums and regional authoritarian governments - that's exactly what people saw in the 1930s and we're seeing it now in Russia, China, Iran doing whatever they want."
He continues:
"Another interesting economic parallel is the crisis of overvaluation: in the 1930s it was the gold standard, for southern Europe it's the Euro, and for China they have a fixed rate regime that they're attending to too little too late. It's the nature of an authoritarian regime to always to do too little and too late. Everyone is too timid to tell the person in power "this is what you need to do." I think China faces an absolute choice between a huge devaluation to restimulate its economy, because becoming competitive I think the carry trade is going to go and I think even domestic savings are going to flee. If they don't do that they have very few options left at this point. They have $3.5 trillion of reserves - you'll be amazed how quickly that goes. So that's another parallel.
Of course no Howe interview would be complete without some observations on generational shifts:
"And then there are some fascinating cultural parallels with the 1930s. Another thing that was true in the 1930s was that after the early 30s you saw a continuous decline in the crime rate. Crime began falling over the the course of the 30s: substance abuse, alcohol abuse began to fall, and this is true with Millennials today. And I tell people that Millennials are responsible today for the most dramatic and rabid decline in youth violence in American history. This is why so many young people are moving to cities, because they are safe again."
Will this trend reverse if and when the economy stumbles, as the full parallels to the sad conclusion of the 1930s play out?
The answer is unclear, but for a fascinating, broad and unconventional perspective on where the economy is headed from one of the cult non-establishment figures, watch the full interview on RealVision's website.
Raoul Pal has generously given Zero Hedge readers an exclusive weekly trial so both the full Howe, and all the other fascinating interviews in RealVision's database can be watched in their entirety. To do so, please click here and use the "zerohedge" trial code, at which point the full Howe interview can be seen via this link.
Here is the excerpt with Neil Howe excerpt :
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4th Turning,...bitchez!!!!!111111111111
Why would I care what keeps this douchetard up at night, for crissakes?
I mean, is he one of those RepubliCONS in that draft-dodging circle jerk running for president?
Who is this frigging dood?
Your questions broadcast your ignorance.
I am stunned that you haven't come back and replaced your world class stupid comment wit a dot.
Neil Howe is a PC coward too afraid to face the coming race war in the US. Blacks need to go.
The only ones without a future in this world are White Supremacy nutcases such as yourself.
There will always be a "superior" in every group. It is the responsibility of the remaining "inferiors" to kill him off.
Have younever seen "Survivor Island"?
I dont understand why draft dodging is a bad thing (unless you are a politician, and are currently in the business of sending others off to die). If you are an average Joe, who enjoys breathing, pizza and the occasional hand job, why the fuck would you willingly go off to war? Unless of course you like killing. Then...well.
The question you should be asking is this: Why didnt EVERYONE at that age dodge the draft?
Underproduction? Undercapacity? What fuking planet is he living on? Robotics and AI will eliminate the need for over 50% of labor, but people won't want to "participate" anyway. They'll be too busy experiencing free, virtual reality porn over the Internet (causing marriage and birth rates to approach zero). Hell, even hookers will suffer. When 3D printing goes mainstream, you will see overproduction like never before. The cost of everything but food & water will drop. The Government will have to drop helicopter $$ on everyone's doorstep just to keep the Economy crawling along.
Someone will own this production capacity and they will determine if you eat or not.
The trial offer doesn't appear to be working, unfortunately.
Roger that. I've been unable to get in either.
As my old pappy used to say: "It is all going down the tubes."
Yep, the wheels are coming off.
Hold on !
What sane person would emigrate to the US ? You only need to read the statistics for police violence and unemployment to understand that the country is no longer a safe haven.
Just curious, where would you go? Im born and raised in America and havent exactly been around the block but I dont see any other region where I would rather live. Europe is a socialist shithole, Russia is a frozen tundra, Austrailia is basically the US with more dangerous animals, Japan is Japan, etc etc.
Despite the pussification of the states, we still put a higher emphasis on personal responsibility, individualism, and freedom than most cultures. Best of the bad my friend.
So if you havent been around the block, how do you know:
Europe is a socialist shithole, Russia is a frozen tundra, Austrailia is basically the US with more dangerous animals, Japan is Japan, etc etc.
Just asking, seriously, because if you havent seen it you are just repeating what others have said.
we still put a higher emphasis on personal responsibility, individualism, and freedom than most cultures.
This is just false. Travel a bit. Then we can talk about indivdiual levels of freedom. You might be surprised.
Police violence?
I am 55. In the past ten years I have had three interactions with police. None of them violent. In those ten years I have driven through and stayed in each of the contiguous 48.
Do you think police violence is on the news because it happens so often? It's on the news because it doesn't happen that often. Or because retard blacks would rather videotape a chimp out rather than try to help.
"What sane person would emigrate to the US ? You only need to read the statistics for police violence and unemployment to understand that the country is no longer a safe haven."
Easy, Someone fleeing a country like Venzeula, or the latin Mafia cartels. Then there is war-zones like the Middle East. In the case of the Middle east, any place is better, Even Hell is probably a step up from the Middle East.
As far as Asia, Well they are fleeing the approaching economic and social crisis title waves heading for mainland China.
I think Howe wasn't including Illegal Immigation in his estimate. My guess over 2 Million Latin Americans will immigate this year. Its easier to walk into the US, than it is to fly or swim the pacific ocean.
Declining crime rates he says? You lock up enough 7 year olds selling lemonade and cookies in front of their houses, arm the local LEO like human cyborgs you're liable to get some reduction in crime.
That is until the 7year old girls become adults, lose all respect for authority, and can't afford to feed themselves because their productivity was spent even before they were born.
Yep move to the cities just in time for the Zombie Apocalypse
Yep. As soon as the EBT cards will not or cannot buy anything, lots of US inner cities are gonna get hairy.
"Yep. As soon as the EBT cards will not or cannot buy anything, lots of US inner cities are gonna get hairy."
I think you mean Fiery. not hairy! I am pretty sure most cities will be burning, not growing more hair!
Cities are safe again? In what country?
Young people are moving to the cities because they can find cheap rundown rental units made by big banks who buy old houses where one family used to live and divide them into 4 rental units.
Young people are moving to the cities because they can find cheap rundown rental units made by big banks who buy old houses where one family used to live and divide them into 4 rental units.
Or 6 of them share a one bedroom apartment.
Interesting Subject as I have posted links to 4th Turning Ideas more than 5 times.
Lots of things to bring up in Neil Howe's Vein.
- TWITTER Removes Accounts Over Sharing of Videos...
- Congressional Review Of Copyright Law May Threaten DRUDGE REPORT...
- CLAIM: 'Healthier' foods WORSE than full-fat versions...
- HERE WE GO AGAIN: TX Rancher Fights Fed Land Grab...
- Small business owners pessimistic, feel country on wrong track... http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/13/us-not-headed-in-right-direction-some-on-...
- SALON: 'Climate change denial much worse than Holocaust denial'...
- RED ALERT: 'HOMELAND SECURITY' TO REVIVE WARNING SYSTEM...
- Billionaires building luxury bomb shelters...
- 34 super rich families to survive apocalypse...
PC Culture dumbs down whole new Generation through electronic devices, Sports, Community Events, keeping families too busy to discuss the problems of the country.
I've kept up on most of this stuff, but one topic in particular.
. HERE WE GO AGAIN: TX Rancher Fights Fed Land Grab...
It seems that instead of The Bureau of land Management going directly after land, and causing public conflict on National TV, they're using other nefarious tactics.
The BLM is attaching liens on property, so that it effectively can't be sold by family members or trusts. The fees on the liens become so cumbersome, that any equity in the property is absorbed by the lien in order to transfer title, to a new owner outside of the family or designated trust.
So, rather that sending in the troops, .gov chooses to bleed you dry, throw you in a box, and use your land how it wishes.
I'm also assuming that any liens are probably attachable to profits the land produces, and other traceable tangible assets.
You have to have accumulated an excess of T-Bills ans US Bonds.. at a corporate level. LoLs
Take-over at the 'undead' level.
One day some one will get smart and outlaw corporations forever as they should have no advantage over trusts.
America enters the fourth turning round-and-round the bowl she goes where she stops only the sewer knows.
Note: If you are in Oz, America would be flushing down the shitter the other way round the bowl.
Place your bets ladies & gents. And WELCOME to the Circus!
Lots of crap here. Cities safe, pray tell where? Certainly not Chicago, Baltimore, Detroit, LA! What about when he says Iran, China, Russia doing their own thing. Pray tell me who they should be following.....the US of A with its corruption and immoral foreign policy. This guy is a cock of shit.
...the fact that migration into the US is "actually in huge decline"...
That "Fact" must be derived from official Govt 'data.' My eyes must've been lying to me over the last few years whenever I've been to a Costco in Atlanta or Dallas and there are as many people from China/India/Pakistan/Whereverthefuckistan as there are English speaking Americans.
the same in SoCal...
Babel-on
Too few people keep him up at night? Strange man.
Is Neil Howe a Liberal or a Progressive?
It would be okay if he produces good data and studies if he has a slant.
But Neil where is the data, what are the numbers of immigrants, their total numbers??
Neil, I think you are looking at Perentages of Immigration, or focused on official immigration numbers, or a decline in percentages of immigrants as ratio of total population.
- I'm pretty sure the numbers of immigrants is going up even as our population increases by 200,000 per month or the working population increases by 200,000 per month
Economists think percent change and percent increases are the be all end all... great if you want to change the USA into New Yorkistan, Miamistan, Atlantistan, and Chicagostan.
- Get off it, you bubble heads
- Total People immigrating are increasing, you are doing a sales job on all of us, Looks like Neil Howe Propaganda Interview, Oct 2015, Snow Job
The totals of people coming are important, and that they come from war zones where the USA has been the Aggressor, and where we discuss Inflation in specifics, Labor Participation in Specifics, Debt in Specific, Wealth Transfer in Specific, Wealth inequality in Specifics, Job Compensation Losses in Specifics, Growing numbers of Americans getting Tax Credits or Welfare in Specifics
WTF?
US Wealth and Income is being driven into a pile of dust. And you, Neil Howe, can only talk about statistics that prove we need more foreigners to change our culture as our Wealthy Elites suppress us and drive our jobs off shore while bribing our Elected Officials.
Hey, Neil, why don't you talk about the real issues?? Could be you are paid off or blackmailed by some Agency??
Let me guess you like Jeb Bush, right? You like Neo-Con Wars overseas and love Israel and to defend her.
By the way I like Social Security & Medicare, I am not what you might think I am.
And I tell people that Millennials are responsible today for the most dramatic and rabid decline in youth violence in American history.
Yeah right.
Millenials aren't responsible for much of anything beyond ensuring an Obama presidency and fueling the student loan bubble. Any supposed reduction in violence is due more to them plugging into iCrap 24/7 than anything else.
I'm afraid Neil has failed to see that government is the problem; they have done too much already. Armed with their right hand men, the central banks, and their left hand men, the MIC, governments no longer serve the people but serve their owners with the individual reward of riches and status. Government should be very small on all levels and serve limited functions and have absolutely zero 'interest' with the private markets. Until this is achieved things can only get worse for common folk.
Richie Cunningham's porn collecting Uncle
Now that's what I call visionary.
The fourth turning of the comb......
its all so obvious now........
Trump's secret message to those who can read it.
Well I've just packed up my stuff, and I'm leaving my rural homestead for Chicago, because it's so fucking safe!----NOT
404 nigga
'No global power to enforce order leading to an increase in failed states'
WHO IS THIS RETARDED COCKSUCKER?
It is the global super power --- America - that has blasted the fuck out of previously stable countries including Iraq, Libya and Syria that has lead to failed states.
And we are supposed to listen to this 'expert' on Real TV? FUCK OFF. If he can't even get the simplest issue right then I hate to see what he'd do on the complicated ones
Real TV can get fucked with it's free week of access ---- if this is a taste of what's in the 'treausure trove of videos' then no fucking thanks.
More worthless bullshit.
What is a trade? At the lowest level a trade of goods even with all the derivative shit piled on top.
Big change since the 30's many things were not even mass produced yet.
Since then we have mass production all the thousands being produced.
Then we refined it automated where possible to make it millions being producded for even less employed people. All those self service check outs, lol the corporations got you to serve yourelf now.
A REAL BIG CHANGE IN THE PRODUCIVE CAPABILITIY AND THROUGH OVER PRODUCTION GENERATE THE DEFLATION OF EVERYTHING BUT FOOD & WATER. If government did not prop up housing financially that would have fallen as real incomes are collapsing as renters or landlords you can only pay the cost you can afford.
We are at a turning point where dy/dx = 0, how it goes from here depends on structural and social changes to the system but expect it to go -ve on the ground elites will not sacrifice any of their gains. If they did then it would go +ve and humanity may just get past it ... DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH WE ARE A FAILED SPECIES.
Rinse repeat.
"Underproduction, undercapacity, deflation, currency wars, demographics, falling birth rates"
But, currently, it's a case of overproduction, overcapacity, deflation, currecny wars, demographics, falling birth rates.