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Is This The "Death" Of The Dollar?
For the first time since September 2013, The USD Index just signalled a "death cross." Three of the last four times that the 50-day moving-average crossed below the 200-day moving-average, The USD Index tumbled significantly.
This makes sense as the rate-hike odds (and implicitly timing) continues to plunge.
Charts: Bloomberg
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No..
HOWEVER, (something) is UP Because Gold and Silver are continuing to go up..
We all KNOW that is Unacceptable!
Tyler, there are rumors that on or about 10/21 the IMF is going to issue a big announcement. Could it be the end of the reserve currency status of the FRN?
All currences are dead....
Take a closer look. Most of the cases shown the dollar had ALREADY dropped significantly at the time of the "death cross". Nice try. I think USD is doomed in the long run but this analysis is plain lazy.
Is This The "Death" Of The Dollar?
Um, no
I had a kooky Macro Econ 101 professor but he did say the US dollar shall reign supreme for as long as our Military does. So, according to that logic, no, the Dollar isn't dead IMO. We'd have to lose a big war or China or Russia would have to make a huge leap in technological warfare.
The US won't have to lose a war, neither do the Russians, Chinese or anyone else need to develop a superior fighting force. The US Military will die when it becomes too expensive to maintain. This is the fate of all Imperial militaries.
It''s already too expensive. That econ. professor probably never expected the exportation of inflation (via FED counterfeiting) to reach such a ridiculous level. The FED's keeping the zombie standing, the over priced planes flying and the expensive ships sailing.
Just checking, i dont know if the US reigns supreme like it used to. Russia is doing a fine job of makingthe US military looking addled from politics.
With politicians driving and commanding our military stopped being supreme in the late 1960s.
We have never won since. Vietnam(loss) Gulf War 1 (incomplete) Gulf War 2(loss) Afghanistan(losing).
Once public perception became more important than mission objectives, we were lost.
Do you think the Russian people give 2 fucks if civilians die while their military kills terrorists?
Same question but insert China in the role of Russia in Syria for a second. No the average chinese citizen won't protest that their govt stop killing innocents.
Once the US made war a TV show, they lost the balls to fight it.
War should only be fought as a last resort. But if it gets there you don't pussy foot around and make it go on forever. You fight hard and finish it.
That green shit died for me a long time ago. Give me the US constitution and sound money and fuck the federal deep state monster.
Remember, the velocity of a dead currency is zero.
Now remind me, what has the velocity of the dollar (actually the FRN) been doing...
This has to scare the shit out of certain poeople.
People do really crazy shit when they are frightened.
Crazy shit to ensue.
sociopaths do even crazier shit - duck and cover
Just declare the dollar wounded in action and send it to the VA, they'll fix it right up......
That would kill it quick. Those Korean doctors don't know shit.
I don't think so, but we can hope for the best, which is the death of the USD.
Technically the "dollar" is long dead. We all should be referring to the Federal Reserve Promissory Note...
which is in fact a debt instrument.
or whatever you call ones and zeros. Binary or Bits I guess? Once the war on cash has been won, cant this game just go on forever?
Like an arcade game. You have to put in coins to keep playing (value). But if you buy the machine you can infinity lives.
"But if you buy the machine you can infinity lives." - So long as the power stays on, yes. What the fuck do think will happen in 'merica when those SNAP cards are no longer available or accepted?
EBT is, of course, the last line of defense.
Which is why you can bank [pardon the usage] on the Feds ensuring that it thrives.
USDA is activiely advertising SNAP to get more Americans (and specifically immigrants) signed-up.
Dependency is power for the Central Government...
that would be the start of the end of complacency.
And the last thing the government wants.
perhaps why all those jade helm assets will remain in place long after jade helm has wrapped up - i think it was just a big logistical operation to put assests in place disguised as an exercise
well next year when I take that dollar into the bank I can trade it in for 3 quarters so we got that going for us.
That's a really good question. Would be great to take odds on whether money supply deflation and declining velocity outpaces money supply inflation or vice versa. And if deflation prevails, will cash appreciate in terms of goods and services faster than gold?
Deflation would have to outpace the output of the Feds printing presses, which are mostly digital at this point.
Light speed deflation?
Nope, it just has to run long enough for the loss of confidence followed by hyperinflation. Then that 300 on your snap card will buy you one loaf of bread.
Deflation would have to outpace the output of the Feds printing presses, which are mostly digital at this point.
Light speed deflation?
It may be somewhat out of the Fed's hands as enough stashed away printed money is already out there to cause a storm of inflation. And enough economic collapse is looming to cause a storm of deflation.
Also, some fear, reservation, concern, or sentiment has reined in Fed printing to current levels so far. They claim it's concern with price inflation rising above 2%. But who really knows. Whatever the reason is, I wonder if it would also hold back the Fed from printing at pace with rapid deflation.
No, you'll still get 4 quarters.
They just won't be worth as much; until the deflationary wave hits...
yes............our MOE is debt...........
Good for big cap US multinational stocks.
Is this John Williams again?
/s
...conducting the london symphony orchestra playing 'cantina band'...
I trade technical charts on intraday scalping.....but my confidence in this approach for longer term charts is not all that solid. Back in the day these "crosses" may have had some meaning....(if only to trigger lemming behavior).....but these days other forces are at working in the Macro Market.
Could the dollar crash??/ Most certainly....but if it does I don't believe it will be because some technical line crosses another....and I most certainly am not trading long term based on that.
Yes, this is the death of the dollar.....again.
Please wake me when there's an actual burial.
Good. Because I can retire on the silver I bought in the $40's a view years ago. Whew...because I was just starting to get worried.
Sounds good. As a farmer I will gladly take your PMs in exchange.
wake me up, before you go go
I sure hope the dollar death coincides with my ex's first $5,600 a month garnishment payment to her.
In other news, fiat "moneys" trade places in their death dance.
Ouch.
Not on the 4hr.
Defaults coming...debts will be called...assests will be liquidated to pay off in FRNs...
This is not yet the death...more like the take-off of the flight of Icarus where eventually it will fly too high...then nose-dive...
Honestly,
Why do people go on about a rate hike?
To know why a rate hike in REAL TERMS is IMPOSSIBLE you need only know two things.
1) The Dollar is a CB credit secured by an equal face-amount of debt. Since the Dollar, and the debt have equal face values, but the debt also has an interest rate, which gets paid first (eg before maturity) there is NEVER ENOUGH MONEY TO PAY DOWN THE DEBT. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE. And so the debt must continually expand such that the new debt rolls-over the old plus accumulated interest.
2) In 2008 the accumulated interest payment from all this debt became larger than the real economy can pay. Since that time, the gov't and Fed have coordinated to add more dollars, secured by more debt, with more interest...so that the maturity date of the problem will be delayed. But nothing is fixed. 2008 has simply been rescheduled ... at great expense.
The problem is that the interest payments cannot be made...the accumulated debt is too big to service.
So, why would anyone think the Fed would make the debt EVEN MORE impossible to service?????
They raise rates and a chain-reaction-global contagion of defaults will start.
It is that simple.
So long as our current monetary system remains, they will NEVER RAISE RATES.
I think of it as People Farming.
When the economy is growing fast enough to service the debt, the sheep get sheared. (inflation)
When the debt has expanded too large to be serviced, the sheep get skinned. (deflation)
Once all the fine pelts have been gathered, the sheep get liquidated. (war)
After the land and the debt have been cleared, the Owners issue new credit, the farm is rebuilt, the sheep begin to grow a fresh coat, and early investors receive the largest rewards. (cycle)
The sooner the Federal Reserve PhDs have to deal with a currency crisis the better.
When the Fed loses control free markets return. The free-market will correct all the huge distortions they created.
I'm no trader, just a stacker, but might we be seeing the eventual predicted overwhelming of the paper trade game artificially holding down PM prices? Gold was moving very quickly last night until it got around 1175 and then the brakes were applied. It looked ( to this noob, anyeway) like somebody is furiously plugging every finger and toe available into the gold market suppression 'dyke'. How long can that be kept up?
A very looooong time.
Longer than anyone would have believed it could.
Longer than that.
But not forever.
~Selah.
What concerns me are the Russians and the Chinese. Many SCO members are on the ropes, facing recessions themselves. Looks like everybody's getting desperate. And desperate people take stupid risks.
This signal of weakness in the dollar is bound to be exploited, financially as well as in military posturing vis-a-vis the Middle East. Note how after the latest yuan devaluation, paralyzing the Fed, Russia starts bombing the bejeezus out of ISIS with nothing but Pomeranian whining from the POTUS as response. Putin looks like he's upending Obama's mentor Brzezinski's Grand Chessboard and shooting holes in it. And the US cabal seems frozen in the headlights WRT keeping the dollar on life-support.
Another round of devals or other shocks - like when the Alien face-hugger ZIRP mutates into the full-on monster NIRP- and I'm thinking that the mask hiding the gold market manipulatiuon courtesy of Fed banksters will be Emperor's Clothes obvious. But that mask might be pulled off by Russian and Chinese hands, at their timing and pleasure.
This gold price action is troubling. The spate of bad news is resulting in higher gold prices, i.e. rationality. It may signal the big trend reversal we've been expecting. We know news will continue to be bad in the weeks and months to come and if gold continues to react as it has over the past week and a half then it will be up to 1,600 before we know what happened. The overnight interventions better kick in heavy and kick in soon or this could be it.
Yes, at this rate we will never reach 800$ gold.
I see $800.00 gold in my crystal ball right after the USD does a 100:1 split.
Did it signal the death of the dollar in 2013?
Any dollar weakness will end up forcing the Fed to raise interest rates because bond holders will dump their holdings if the currency starts to get weak. Its the chicken or egg conundrum. Any rise in long rates squeezes the economy and stocks will plunge.
Dollar weakness would give them an opportunity to raise rates because they're not concerned about exporters getting torpedoed.
.
The most imortant point is that DXY has got to be the poorest indicator around for judging the strength of the US Dollar.It has very little relationship to America's entire group of trading partners.FXCM trys to pitch their USDOLLAR symbol saying it's balanced more equally but still doesn't include every trading partner and all data needed.BUXX on Bloomberg is the same BS.Maybe one day in this day of technology someone will wake up to the propaganda.
USD is crashing long term. When World War Three starts to manifest that will signal the end of USD due to the fact that over the long term of events there is no trend that indicates there will be a reversal along a continuum of de-Americanization of the Global Reserve Currency. WW3 is indicative of FED policy failure, political failure, and failure of private industry. In brief, the superstructure cannot support the fraud because when Ponzi schemes fail, they fail to generate profit. No profit means war to enforce newer forms of fraud that will generate profits.
What the Roman Catholic Church wants the Mafia gets!
THe Federal Reserve will not protect the US dollar untill it falls a great deal more.
Expect much more printing as the US dollar falls.
At some point the debt market will force the Federal Reserve's hand.
no
Wake me up in 2029.
Q: who accumulates the most FRN's?
A: Drug dealers
ergo, so long as we need our drugs, everything fine
move on
No. Too much cray shit worldwide for it to crater now. Give it until the Fed doesn't raise rates until 2017.
When push comes to shove, the Fed will protect the dollar. Which, albeit, ain't gonna happen until the Board of Governors is forced to appoint a new chair because of the raw footage on YouTube showing Yellen swinging gently in the breeze from a lamppost outside the Eccles Building.
Rather that speculate about the $USD, why not just take a look at what is happening right in front of your eyes; Confidence in America's abilities is cracking... It starts with foreign policy (which includes idiocy like 'FATCA') and extends from there. It is only a matter now of the acceleration and the end result.
If the federal reserve actually wants to raise rates (which I don't believe), they better pull a surprise rate increase in October... because the economy will be so obviously horrific by December that "no way, no how" can they raise rates in December.
Unless, of course, they and their buddies plan to go hyper-short first, which is possible (classic head-fake on Shemitah timing).