This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
US Retail Sales Tumble Most Since January, Signal Sustained Recessionary Environment
One year ago the abysmal retail sales data crushed the market's hope that the recovery from the 7th half of 2012 was imminent. It also unleashed the Treasury flash crash, where the 40 bps plunge in yields was according to Jamie Dimon was a 1 in 3 billion year occurence. It only ended when Bullard hinted at QE4.
Moments ago, in a stark deja vu to precisely one year ago, retail sales disappointed even more than in October 2014, when 27 out of 27 economists thought the control group would be positive. It came at -0.1%.
The details: Retail Sales (ex Autos) dropped 0.3% in September, the 2nd drop in a row, the biggest drop since January (at the heart of the weather-driven economic weakness).
This is the 7th miss in the last 10 months...
For the first time since February, the 'Control Group' Retail Sales dropped (down 0.1% vs +0.3% expectations) as sales dropped in 7 of 13 categories (but notably autos rose significantly but was offset by a collapse in gas station spending). Notably 27 out of 27 'experts' agreed that the control group sales data woul dnot be negative.. wrong!
Year-over-year data shows sustained stagnant growth in retail sales historically aligned with a recessionary environment.
The breakdown shows bvroad weakness.
And most notably, retail sales dropped in 7 of 13 major categories including:
- Electronics and appliance stores -0.2%
- Building Materials and Supplies -0.3%
- Food and beverage -0.3%
- Gasoline stations -3.2%
- General merchandise stores -0.1%
- Miscellaneous store retailers -1.3%
- Online -0.2%
And most importantly, the control group saw its first monthly drop since the "harsh winter" crushed GDP in February.
Expect the Atlanta Fed to cut its Q3 GDP nowcast to below 1% following the latest batch of abysmal data.
»
- 14699 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
bullsh?
Well ain't that a doozey of a morning. Gold up in China on ease. Gold down on a slamming right about the 200 day whatever. Then shite economic data portending a deflationary collapse all over the world, reminding me of Ricky Nelson's ultimate demise (All nice on the outside a heroin junkie in the in) with gold and bonds nicely rebounding. Oh, and the MSM says The Hildabeast (Properly described similarly as "The " Ukraine)won, while the real indica of social media had Bernie the Red Ahead with Cousin Jeb from the Bush Family Genetic Bio-Modification Experimentation Selection Contest running somewhere near oblivion.
This shit's fun!
Yes, bullish. Helicopter money on the way!!!
it
Dear PTB:
Please cease immediately your ridiculous, hateful, racist, and illegal capping of silver at $16. You are fooling no one, and quite frankly, have become an embarrassment to all that is holy and good. Thank you.
Electonics -5.8? But, but, the newest greatest ever iPhone?
millenials are broke these days...
They area?? news to me here in the greater Boston area.. Many of these fresh faced twenty somethings are driving $40,000 + cars and can seem to afford designer clothes as well as season tickets to see the Red Sox or the Pats play (or they just get drunk and spend $200 on food watching on a 70inch flat screen). Of course tech & healthcare jobs in this area are booming they are really a dime a dozen, get fired from one place or quit you can have another high paying job within a day or two.
My sister works for one of the mini IVY s up in Maine.
Their student body is 60% students from 'away' (overseas).
Don't have a clue about Baaaston.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_colleges_and_universities_in_metro...
yes its in Maine. the other 40% are WASP children of the 1% from Greenwich CT, Scarsdale NY or Wellesley. If you are not White, Protestant from the 1% or East Asian you certainly won't be comfortable at any of those 'Mini Ivys' especially 'Up in Maine'
We've outsoruced jobs and insourced students and workers.
Ain't America great?
Autoloan debt levels and length of loans are way up. 7 yr auto loans...hilarity.
mommy & daddy now cosign the loan or the car lease even in Boston or NYC where public transport would be seen as beneath them
Stores sold out of the older model on price drop. Even the iCrowd has to be more frugalin the face of pitiful wages.
The "older model" (I assume you mean the Iphone 6 or 6plus) has been discontinued and the price drop was to sell off excess inventory.
Bullish right? The feds will print more, and negative interest rates will force people to spent more by borrowing money from credit cards and the credit card companies have to pay people from borrowing money. Great!
what recession? stocks are near all time highs. Seriously, what are you talking about?
+1 the s&p 500 was the only economic indicator the bernank ever looked at.
And the bottom of the Scotch tumbler.
it sez (Refill When Empty )
"the s&p 500 was the only economic indicator the bernank ever looked at."
By reading the ZH articles at the time, I would have thought that it was the Russel 2000 Small Caps he was fond of.
QE I, II and III. Moving 4 trillions dollars around under a sea shell to buy time.
"The recessionary decade" ?
Instead of a helicopter drop of money, they should consider dropping drugs that will help us all retain our illusions. Its going to take more the money to keep this leaky boat afloat.
Even beer will be all coming from the same horse now.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/13/us-sabmiller-m-a-a-b-i-idUSKCN...
Horse wizz is right!
.
.
.
For some strange reason, the MSM have a different take...
From Reuters: "but gains in purchases of automobiles and other goods pointed to solid domestic demand that could shield the economy from slowing global growth"
Everything running fine then.
Not impressed. Show me something off the charts.
Wait till the snow comes.
Many times in the past several months my family and I have headed out to the mall for a day of spending, only to be scared back into our holes by clouds. Don't worry economy, if it's ever sunny, we are going to buy the hell out of shit.
We will have to put it on our credit card of course
Should boost the market significantly on this news.
But the media says the economy is strong. These poor numbers can't be as the media is never full of shit.
As the economy slows and people are forced to spend more and more on healthcare since millions are mostly overweight and sickly, we will need permanent "stimulus". Permanent QE too. Negative rates...hell, throw the kitchen sink at it. With two SUVs in every McMansion driveway, both with 9-year notes, and soon to be upside-down (again) on the bubble-priced house, just a short time away from new banker bailouts. A total mess, held together with massive debt. Retail jobs that pay nothing, and fast food ones that go to illegals.
But, still see twenty-somethings driving new Teslas...living well on MasterCard, so what me worry?
Must all be "oatmeal heads"
Go to some of the websites and you'll see brand new 2014 autos for sale.
The media is so full of it.
The media is trying to put the average person is a consumption stupor.
Society has made consumption a religion.
We have to go back to a time when you bought only what you needed, made your own clothes, fixed anything that broke and grew your own food. I was born in the early 60's and remember living like this, before the Edward Bernays progrom took full effect.
Just for kicks I just checked out the local Chevy dealer's 2014 inventory, after reading your post.
2014 Traverse's for $30K-$40K. Gotta be kidding me. They DO still have 2014 model year vehicles on their lot.
Leasing Automobiles is the reason sales are up...Leases are counted as sales which is very misleading...People can't afford to actually "Buy", They can afford to "Lease" which is usually more the half the cost to own payment wise(monthly)...Use to be leasing you'd have to have great credit and several thousand down...Now, no money down with bad to awful credit will get you a "Leased" car.... "Leasing allows the Car manufacturers to charge silly MSRP prices....