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Groundhog Day: "I Woke Up This Morning After Horrible Economic News And First Question Was How Much Are Stocks Up"
Any carbon-based trader "trading" today will surely agree with every word Bloomberg's Richard Breslow, a former FX trader and fund manager, said in his note this morning.
Fight the Real Dragon
The economic numbers released yesterday can best be described with a reference to wheels falling off the bus. And it wasn’t just retail sales and PPI in the U.S. but numbers from around the world, including China. So, of course, when I woke up this morning the obvious first question to ask was, how much are equities up? It remains a reality for trading that the biggest news overnight wasn’t the Bank of Korea rate decision nor the continued deterioration of East West relations but an article written by Jon Hilsenrath in the WSJ on the rapidly diminishing likelihood of a Fed hike in 2015.
Fed Funds futures have been consistently ahead of economists and Fed speak in doubting a rate hike. Comments by Richmond Fed’s Lacker yesterday that he doesn’t know if the Fed will raise rates in October didn’t even merit a rolling of the eyes. Futures are pricing in a 4% chance for October rather than zero, just to be polite. Governors Brainard and Tarullo joining the “conditions don’t merit a rate rise at this time” camp sounded positively statesmanlike.
Last night’s article matters because the Fed’s credibility has taken a hit from interminable public bickering. A number of investors have expressed the fear that a December move might be decided to fix the damage rather than on the merits. Rightly or wrongly, it is assumed that this piece was written with the benefit of some “on background” discussions.
Goosing risk may look good on paper and buy time. But it, quite apparently, has had diminishing effect on the real economy. Central banks need to spend more time publicly arguing the necessity for fiscal policy makers to do their part and not add to the public perception of government dysfunction.
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Shit's bad.
I'm going to buy stocks today.
no lie.
Just BTFD.
There's no asset price inflation. Move along.
Netflix is plunging 8% -- blames cc chips:
Netflix has blamed poor US growth on those new credit cards with chipshttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/netflix-just-blamed-poor-us-202709322.html
Sure - now that Hitlary has set the new standard for truth telling - not
I'm surprised it doesn't fall moar considering the poor quality and selections of their content...most movies rated 1 or 2 stars by independent web sites. However, i am thankful they did not blame "Global Warming."
the new normal, am ramp pm tamp.
Let me translate: "Our business model works on endless recurring billing of customers who forget to cancel, can't find the time to cancel, etc. Our model works like other recurring billing gold mines: Amazon Prime, Porn sites, gym memberships, etc. Anything that prevents/stops us from continuing to bill people who just pay the minimum balance on their credit cards will cause us great pain."
Or, how bout a new meme where you agree to pay a monthly membership just by ordering any product from out catalog.
And, don't think about calling to cancel your membership cause we'll put you off or ignore you just like Comcast cable.
The market is running into a problem. When Mr. Market is asking for more Free Shit from the Fed, A) The Fed's at ZERO and B) what they've done doesn't create wealth and therefore hasn't worked. Transfered wealth, yes. Create it, no.
Dudley {the REAL Fed chair} has already said that the FOMC would go to negative rates if economic indicators were to deteriorate to recession levels again.
Um no.
They created wealth by transferring whatever wealth you had to their pockets.
it's wealth he's had and wealth's he's creating.
Groundhog day indeed!
One constant is always constant, day in, day out.
Paper burns, motherfuckers, paper burns.
If you can't grow food on it, live in it, or cast it into bullets for vampires, it is pretty much a totally fucking worthless expenditure of investment capital.
Coming sooner than you think.
If you remove the horse and the cart goes faster - you're rolling downhill.
Didn't raies in September and stocks fell. Likely not to raise in December and stocks rise, on shit data nonetheless. I'm cornfused on manipulation patterns, wish they would make up their minds. Just when i think bad news isn't good anymore....SMACK!
Yesterday was down, so today should be up.
Wall St. will still be pushing up the market when there's nothing left but smoking rubble......
Yep. Or until the Banks, uh sharks, start eating their own.
Bad news is good news...........until is isn't anymore. At some point in time, and I have no f'n clue when that'll be, the bad news will turn into bad news, and when that happens it's Game Over.
The FED is basically a $0 whore/crack dealer....Wall Street needs it fix and to F$@K people! The FED serves that purpose
no work, no productivity, - what else would one do, play video war games or play wall street. Life can not be too real for the children.
Rumor on Social Security announcing no increase for next year because inflation is 'too low' -- however, they also are planning a 30% increase in Medicare premiums (due to what, I ask, if it is NOT inflation"?
"Rumor on Social Security announcing no increase for next year because inflation is 'too low' -- however, they also are planning a 30% increase in Medicare premiums (due to what, I ask, if it is NOT inflation"?"
Medicare outlays are increasing because the boomers are retiring in mass. More participants = more cash outflows. Medicare inflation is probably flat since the Gov't capped and reduced medical payments to doctors. As far as SS increases: Also because SS is now, and permanently running in the red as outlays exceed revenue. This should get worse every year since more and more boomers are retireing or starting to collect SS (some boomers are working and collecting)
The FICA (ie SS Payroll tax) may also increase from 12.4 to 15.4 (Depending on the pending Budget debate). I think the Medicare portion will remain unchanged at 2.9%. If the SS tax is increased the total payroll tax would increase to 18.3%. My guess is that they do raise it, since SS is now in the red. They will probably need to increase FiCA about 2 to 3% every two years to accomidate the retiring boomers. Assuming FICA continues to adjust to boomers retiring, it would top out between 31% to 37% in 2029, unless there is a mass boomer die off. Medicare will also have to increase substantially too. FYI: Gen-X & Millenials will merge into a single generation: Generation F*CKED!
Like Dudley just said, we don't even need 'real' inflation to raise rates, fake whatever will do just fine....now spin the wheel! Lets make a deal! You lettin it all ride on red or black!
Gold's run for the last ten days may mean that we have broken the REAL cycle...FED's ability to tell lies. PMs bitchez
Well, it gold is trading on technicals, which I doubt, we have already reached the peak of the measured move from the previous low. Question is will it continue to move or will some Fed mouthpiece come out and scupper it with bullshit talk of a rate hike. The boyz need to pay their coke bill after all.
BUT WHY ...
would you expect that stock prices have anything to do with an expected stream of earnings?
OR the state of the US economy
OR the real profit margins of companies?
Because we're living in an era where "debt doesn't matter" ...
RIGHT??!!
I am not a trader and I'm a fledgeling at understanding how the markets really work, but my magic ball that I have been honing over these many years is telling me tomorrow will be in the red. In the last few months my predictions, though general in nature ("way red, really green, totally fucked today, etc.") have been true almost every time. I just sort of snatch it out of the air. Don't ask me how. Some days I feel like Neo, boringly fending off the strongest softeware driven agent with my perfect martial arts. It's hard being number one. Lol.
Seriously, though. Red tomorrow. Hope I just didnt jinx my near perfect, as of late, record.
+1 Because you wouldn't want to share the same many and various labels that Gartman has earned - would ya? Red it is.
cpnscarlet
I wish but I fear they are sucking us in for another corrordinated smackdown. I won't sell even a gram though.
LOL
Naked shorts on VIX = +++Skew
You know, back when I was in Nam during the Tet offensive... I remember it like it was yesterday. One of the Cong got close enough to toss a grenade into our foxhole, but due to the quick thinking of my tennis playing sargeant, he promptly whipped out his tennis racket, and elegantly back-handed that grenade right into the midst of that advancing horde of blood-thirsty gooks. We had to kneel instead of laying flat in that foxhole due to the copious amounts of blood spilt over the course of the next fifteen minutes. True Story!
Standard Disclaimer: I will never be able to lie as convincingly to the muppets as the members of the Federal Reserve.
The sea was angry that day my friends, like an old man trying to send back soup in a deli... [/George Costanza trade]
Netflix valuation is still above 220. No problem there.
Ever heard of Pavlov's Dog? Operant Conditioning is the scientific name for it. BTFD has worked since 2009, and it will be that way for sometime. Ask any psychologist, once habituation has occurred, it is hard to break. They knew what they were doing when they were conducting this experiment on traders.
Internet classics.
Buy the dip!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4
AU, AG. BTC, Beans, bullets, band-aids, skills, tools, garden, health, family, tribe.