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Iran Could Trigger A Resource War On Several Fronts Other Than Oil
Submitted by Gaurav Agnihotri via OilPrice.com,
As has already been discussed at length, once the economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the European Union on Iran begin to be lifted next year, there is going to be a surge in the already oversupplied global crude oil markets. The current world crude oil output is around 96.6 million barrels per day and with Iran’s addition, this output could further increase by around 500,000 barrels per day.
Although the surge in crude oil markets could further worsen the global supply/demand gap, Iran could present a new source of competition on other crucial fronts too, especially in the gas markets.
Another Source of Gas from the Persian Gulf?
Let us look at Qatar first. Although Qatar is one of the smallest contributing members of OPEC, the small nation is the world’s biggest exporter of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). With close to 890 trillion cubic feet of proved natural gas reserves, Qatar is the third largest natural gas producer in the world. Almost all of Qatar’s natural gas is located in its North Field which, along with Iran’s South Pars, holds more than 885 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of natural gas and is the largest natural gas formation in the world.
Although Qatar has been able to successfully develop its field in collaboration with Total, Exxon Mobil and Shell, Iran has so far been left behind mainly due to reduced foreign investment sanctions and lack of technology transfer stemming from international sanctions. In spite of this, Iran’s natural gas output increased in 2014 when the latest expansion of the South-Pars (which has a 24–phase development plan) field came online. The project is handled by Pars Oil and Gas Company, which is now looking for new foreign investors to invest in the project.
In fact, the Managing Director of Pars Oil and Gas Company, Ali Akbar Shabanpour, is scheduled to visit London this year to woo potential investors in the South Pars Field. Companies like Royal Dutch Shell and Total, who are already looking to invest in Iran, would be among the top targets.
India has also expressed its interest in investing close to $15 billion in new projects in Iran. Even South Africa is planning to invest in future LNG projects in Iran. With rising interest from Europe, Asia and Africa, Iran is now gearing up to increase its gas production from South Pars field and it is expected that the Islamic Republic could start exporting gas to Europe and other regions by as early as 2020. With this, the moratorium on newer projects that is currently in place in Qatar’s North Field might soon come to an end and we might witness a race to compete for LNG exports between the two Middle Eastern nations.
Have any major renewable companies expressed interest in Iran?
With the removal of sanctions, Iran is also looking to boost its renewable energy sector. According to Iranian Energy Minister Hamid Chitchian, Iran wants to increase its renewable energy capability to 5,000 MW (from current capacity of 150 MW) by 2018. Bester, a Spanish Renewable energy company, has recently signed an agreement with Sunir – a state run Iranian company. Bester would consult with Sunir in developing renewable technology, with a particular focus on solar energy.
“Iran generates most of its electricity by its fossil fuel power plant, but the Energy Ministry’s policy is willing to use renewable energy. We hope to cooperate with Germany, considering its experiences in setting up power plants in Iran,” said Iran Power Generation and Transmission Company’s Managing Director Homayoon Haeri.
German renewable companies have already started investing in Iran’s renewable sector, specifically the wind sector. A German–Iranian renewable energy company called Development Environment Arvand Co. is set to construct a 48 MW wind farm for $46 million in south west Iran. A 20 MW solar plant is being planned in the same free trade zone by an Iranian company called The Abadan. With these developments on track, Iran could well compete in the near future with the likes of UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar which are the foremost markets for renewable energy in the Middle East.
With all this, it is pretty clear that Iran’s complete return to the world economy would have major economic repercussions, which would extend well beyond the global oil industry.
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I am uncertain we will reach the lifting of sanctions on Iran, the deal is signed, but great opposition from Israel and AIPAC remains, and there is time to overturn the deal and keep sanctions in place. Israel does not fear any Iranian bomb! Nonsense! Israel holds 200-400 nuclear weapons and has delivery systems for 300+. How does a nation with that have fear of a couple Iranian bombs?
No, what Israel fears is Iran back in the world economic systems. Iran has a large area, a large population, much of that population is ancient and united, minorities don't hold great power in Iran, they can cause a fuss, but they are not a real threat to a united Iran.
Israel fears this large and growing nation that has every prospect of being stable and united, with a high technological level and with good economic growth prospects. Iran could simply become so economic and militarily influencial that Israel will look like a bug on the wind screen of Middle East state. Israel has it's bully boy to do it's bidding, that is where the USA and Iranian tension comes from. Most Americans have zero reason to hate or fear Persians. It is the Zionist movement that fuels the fires of hate.
Iran in the world economic system, with allies like Russia and China, growing and growing? Israel hates that idea, Israel is all about destruction of any non-jews. Admit it, and stop hiding behind the germans in WWII, Israel works to destory all peoples in it's region. Syria is prime example. Israel and the bully boy, they have killed and destoryed more people than all the earth's terrorists since day 1! They can not deny that, because it is demonstable fact.
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Thats exactly why the deal will go through. Oil will plummet to $20 and Iran and Russia will need to pump more and more just to pay their bills -- which they won't be able to do -- and their regimes will fall.
They tried to build empires on oil thinking the price could never go down again. Oops.
UN sanctions on Iran has been removed. Does it really matter if US removes its own sanctions or not because Iran can get stuff from russia , china an europe .
You mean all of this shit is about gas pipelines?
Who knew?
Every player has their own motivations-
US - Hegemony and the wounds of 1979
Israel - Water
Qatar - Liquified Natural Gas
Iran - Natural Gas Pipelines
KSA - Regional Influence (and that whole Catholic/Protestant schism thingy)
Read footnote 18 from this link, and ask yourself, what are the chances that the one of the biggest and most experienced oil companies in the world spent millions of dollars mobilizing an offshore exploration rig and team, and then slowly motored their asses out into the middle of the biggest gas field in the world, drilled a well and said, "Damn, there isn't any gas here, let's just call it quits and go home..."?
And Putin goes home with head drooping to explain to the Russian people that $20 oil and massive amounts of new natgas hitting the market put the final fork in the Russian economy.
Tsk tsk...
At least he goes home.
vlad the messiah does have some moves he could pull. for example, he could allow iran to close the strait of hormuz. the nyse would be permanently closed forever, and western style capitalism would be rid from the face of the earth. i'm sure he's aware of goldman sachs and naked shorting paper oil.
Up arrow simply for Wherethfuckistan...beauty
Don't forget Russia controls the pipelines.
Whoever the Iranians sell to, wherever they sell it, Gazprom will be wetting their beak.
Chances are that there is already negotiations unde way for Gazprom to act as selling agent for Iranian gas, as they already do elsewhere - you don't think all that gas going to Europe comes out of a hole in the ground in Russia do you?
Also see:
http://stratscope.com/where-does-oman-and-irans-pipeline-leave-saudi-ara...
regarding proposed Oman-Iran gas pipeline.
Nations having resource wealth should not fear sanctions
Rather they should form coalition & do reverse sanctions by not supplying to evil US & Allies