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Tomorrow Is OpEx: What Happens Next?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Presented with little comment aside to say "Fool me once, shame on you" but fool me eight times...

Behold The OPEX Rallies...

2015's OPEX rallies haven't failed yet to provide a tradabale downswing... is the market capable of withstanding one this time?

 

Source: NorthmanTrader.com

 

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Thu, 10/15/2015 - 18:50 | 6673162 hungrydweller
hungrydweller's picture

SPXU bitchez!

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 19:53 | 6673362 sam i am
sam i am's picture

Poland pays Qatar to sell its LNG to other consumers.

You can't make this stuff up.

http://thesaker.is/turning-down-russian-gas-has-already-caused-poland-huge-losses/

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 21:24 | 6673670 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

They traded certainty of supply with Russia for slavery to hateful muslims.

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 00:04 | 6674024 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

WTI 20s on deck.....

 

RIPS

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 02:58 | 6674194 Rubicon
Rubicon's picture

Poland loves coal, not gas. I close the windows at night.

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 05:32 | 6674287 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

 

Gold down $50 bucks.....I live for this crap.

 

Stop telling everyone about it.....it's suppose to be a secret.

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 06:35 | 6674334 The Pope
The Pope's picture

Clearly a case of "Efficient Market Theory"

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 06:52 | 6674354 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Yes, fool me once shambers on me, fool me twice, shambers on you. Fool me 8 times, well get just the life insurance policy out and see how much you can collect.

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 06:01 | 6674302 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Drop your pants, my Polish Bitch. I'm horny.

Vlad, help us!

Haha, you did it to yourselves. Enjoy that Arab load!

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 23:11 | 6673926 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

I'm Cornhole Sanders,m I know that. 

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 18:53 | 6673171 Tallest Skil
Tallest Skil's picture

How long before the next 7-year crash happens? Honestly, I can't handle the lead-up much longer.

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 19:11 | 6673221 silverer
silverer's picture

Another optimist.

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 19:22 | 6673256 knukles
knukles's picture

Say.  That kinda looks like what they do with options expirations in gold, doesn't it?    ...   (scratching nuts)
                                                                                  Yes, it's a sarc

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 19:56 | 6673320 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Be quiet your giving away my golden egg. nothin more sure thing than a carpet bomb on op eX day

Me and my ferocious 1 contract they see standing there and loath to have to do it

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 02:39 | 6674184 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

cowdiddly (if that is your Real Name) --

if you would post more often, the zh readers could contemplate your avatar with more regularity.

which serves to remind ....

tylers:
what with fasterer bandwidths and memories and disks and whatnot and all, maybe certain users should have 2x larger images.
Think About It.

 

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 03:00 | 6674195 wizteknet
wizteknet's picture

Might Increase bandwidth costs think about it, the sheet is free elsewhere duh, sorry had to do it! da

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 06:03 | 6674303 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Thenwe'd all post .gifs of swinging tits, not that that would be a bad thing.

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 20:34 | 6673493 WhackoWarner
WhackoWarner's picture

HUSH HUSH sweet knuckles.

 

Please I just bought an new-old collector car...had to lay out cash left right and centre on crap beyond that.  HUSH and let the gold naysayers keep the price down on this "pet rock", Beanie Baby, relic until I can flush out my pin money fund.

 

Dive the price please again.  Dive it down just for us. Take it back to $1000 one more time...I promise I will be ready.    I thank you for your time.

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 20:03 | 6673396 Linoleum Blownapart
Linoleum Blownapart's picture

FWIW, based on info & tips from quite a few sources, I can say 95% confident by end of holidays (i.e. end of December). But, I would not be surprised if mid-November. Late October would be surprising. September was never serious.

Of course, this is 2p from random guy on internet :)

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 18:56 | 6673178 Flying Wombat
Flying Wombat's picture

Impending Systemic Financial Insolvency - Dave Kranzler w/ Jay Taylor

I suggested in a blog post last week that the extraordinary “outlier” amount of reverse repo transactions conducted by the Fed with its system member banks beginning in mid-September went several standard deviations beyond the amounts used in quarterly bank “window dressing” maneuvers.

I received several emails, of course, suggesting I was wrong and that the all-time record amount of reverse repos was de rigueur.   Rather than write a blog post explaining why the “de rigueur” view is wrong, I was able to discuss the entire reverse repo process on Jay Taylor’s “Turning Hard Times Into Good Times” radio show.

Click below for Kranzler's full article and show listening options:

http://thenewsdoctors.com/?p=521946

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 18:57 | 6673180 Beowulf55
Beowulf55's picture

Gold and Silver will be beaten like a red headed step child tomorrow.

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 19:05 | 6673200 devo
devo's picture

I wish they'd beat the fuck out of it for just a week so I can unload this fiat. It never seems to go low enough. Give me $800 and I'll "back up the truck".

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 20:36 | 6673499 WhackoWarner
WhackoWarner's picture

I'll take $1000 but please rock and roll it lower until this farce of US elections.  I will be ready.

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 22:29 | 6673831 Slomotrainwreck
Slomotrainwreck's picture

Regardless of the fiat bid, the ask will never go below 1200 again. Never.  The low hanging fruit is gone.

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 05:35 | 6674289 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

Hopefully the fairy gold angel will send Harry Dent and Jon Nadler $700 gold.

 

Dare to dream.

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 19:10 | 6673218 silverer
silverer's picture

Buy.

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 19:34 | 6673300 wisebastard
wisebastard's picture

whats your target price?

 

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 20:04 | 6673397 devo
devo's picture

Man, I hope $800, but it seems like the correction is ending and people are starting to see the emperor has no clothes/fed cried wolf one too many times. Next they're going to be crying uncle.

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 20:40 | 6673514 WhackoWarner
WhackoWarner's picture

C'mon Devo.

 

How many times?  I do not think it is over and may go higher (kinda like into $2000 land) and then crash the money out.  Paper games.  But I think $1000 once run up and crashed again.  Like the final flush.  But at some point it will go no offer.  How long?  Before I am dead.

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 19:50 | 6673306 wisebastard
wisebastard's picture

c

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 06:06 | 6674305 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Yes, Charlotte, but the South will rise again.
--Rhett

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 19:00 | 6673187 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

Saw this this morning. This guy is not too bad. Northman, that is.

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 19:01 | 6673192 devo
devo's picture

Futures up.

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 22:36 | 6673852 Proofreder
Proofreder's picture

Futures down

90 minutes later

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 23:31 | 6673967 devo
devo's picture

buy the dip

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 06:06 | 6674308 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Drop some 'pane and take a trip.

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 19:06 | 6673205 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

This Time Is Different™

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 19:11 | 6673220 Beowulf55
Beowulf55's picture

OK Lucy, I trust you...........Charly Brown

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 20:43 | 6673497 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

For real though, I got out the last of my front month today, Ill let the machines fuck everyone with the gamma on OpEx, I am sleeping in.  They do this shit every cycle, its how the system works.  The going up into the end of OpEx part not the selling off after, thats new and exciting!  I believe its statistically 75% of the time we are up on that week of OpEx over the last 20 years but I would have to double check, I know its something around that.   Its beause of the way options work mainly, and general market structure/the future rolls but that's not tomorrow.

 

In related news:  The VIX is at a major level right now; the 68 week moving average.  That average btw has made a wide base and has TURNED UP, guess the last time that happened?  /spoiler/ 2007 /spoiler/  That is not to say it wont go right back to 12 in the short term but it suggests very very strongly that after the next bottom in vol, which very well could be tomorrow, then we are in for some fireworks.  I give it till next week but my positions are mostly in NOV15 and JAN16 now.

 

We have to be close, I mean 'cmon,  look at the COMP.   Look at it!       Death.... that is what death in a security looks like.  

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 19:42 | 6673327 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

Thank you for this timely post...

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 19:46 | 6673340 saveUSsavers
saveUSsavers's picture

Behead, cut balls off and cremate every Algo Parasite

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 21:00 | 6673593 nevadan
nevadan's picture

Did you mean...

Cut balls off, behead, and cremate every Algo Parasite?

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 20:12 | 6673428 TheEndIsNear
TheEndIsNear's picture

Are we there yet?

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 20:49 | 6673554 spacemonkey99
spacemonkey99's picture

what if the emporer shits the bed and no one tells him?

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 21:44 | 6673731 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

they got it mostly where they want it already. modest up or down would be my guess.

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 21:59 | 6673775 jcdenton
jcdenton's picture

Well they say a cat has nine (9) lives. One more bounce?

(unless the cat is terminally ill) ..

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 23:45 | 6673990 Kprime
Kprime's picture

you got your dead cat in the middle of the road

oh you got ur dead cat...in the middle of the road

and it's stinkin to high high heaven.

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 00:27 | 6674051 worbsid
worbsid's picture

Dead cat in the middle of the road.  In a few hours it will be a 'sail cat'.  Kinda like a hairy frisbe.

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 01:31 | 6674116 Shumbies
Shumbies's picture

What if it is Schrödinger's cat?

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 06:14 | 6674316 waterwitch
waterwitch's picture

Then it will likely wave at you.

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 22:37 | 6673854 Herdee
Herdee's picture

Bump up interest rates,see the Dollar soar and commodities drop like hell.Oil and the beheading,terrorist financing Saudi regime get no sympathy from me.Their King should have been thrown in the slammer,tried,de-balled and hung when the basturd was in Washington.

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 22:42 | 6673869 jmcoombs
jmcoombs's picture

What does OPEX stand for, operating expenses?  I don't get it......why would there be OPEX rallies?

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 23:04 | 6673898 Talleyrand
Talleyrand's picture

 

Maybe it has something to do with options expiring.

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 01:45 | 6674136 wizteknet
wizteknet's picture

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/expirationdate.asp

Expiration Date (Derivatives)

DEFINITION of 'Expiration Date (Derivatives)'

The last day that an options or futures contract is valid. When an investor buys an option, the contract gives them the right but not the obligation to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price, called a strike price, within a given time period, which is on or before the expiration date. If the investor chooses not to exercise that right, the option expires and becomes worthless and the investor loses the money paid to buy the option.

BREAKING DOWN 'Expiration Date (Derivatives)'

The expiration date for all listed stock options in the United States is normally the third Friday of the contract month, which is the month when the contract expires. However, when that Friday falls on a holiday, the expiration date is on the Thursday immediately before the third Friday. Once an options or futures contract passes its expiration date, the contract is invalid.

alt version
http://www.theoptionsguide.com/expiration-date.aspx

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 06:09 | 6674311 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Options Expiration day.

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 23:19 | 6673945 jomama
jomama's picture

Let me go out on a limb on this one: Commodities get slammed?

Thu, 10/15/2015 - 23:55 | 6674010 tiger215
tiger215's picture

A rally? Come on. Really? With no real GDP you want to pay 18 times for paper with pretty pictures which they don't even deliver to you anymore? Do you not remember the dot-com sucker punch? Do you not see margin debt going down? Do you not see that the Fed is out of arrows in its quiver? Mutual fund cash at less than 3% doesn't bother you? The litany could go on and on; but, why bother when the whole thing is just a giant Ponzi scheme.

Sat, 10/17/2015 - 01:34 | 6678348 hedgiex
hedgiex's picture

Yes Tiger. But deformed markets are delinked from fundamentals. Debts sustained by steroids walk zombies differently. Rallies and Crashes are just on/off respites from trips. Chimpanzees (not you) can give you better guidance from their dart throws.

 

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 00:10 | 6674012 Ajax_USB_Port_R...
Ajax_USB_Port_Repair_Service_'s picture

You down with O~P~EX ?
Who's down with O~P~EX ?

                   You down with O~ P~EX ?
                   Who's down with O~ P~ EX ?

 

Yo! Mahn! Spired out o' de money again!

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 01:01 | 6674085 Trips Trading
Trips Trading's picture

I believe we’ll see a (short term) High this Friday or Monday, OCT 16-19, Target 2040-45.

This is based on Cycles and Elliot Wave, see 4h chart below.

If wave 1 = wave 5 => Target is 1990 + 55 = 2045.

http://tripstrading.com/2015/10/15/sp500-a-short-term-high-for-oct-1619/

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 01:37 | 6674131 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

So it's all science after all......I see.... And I thought it was simple animal spirits being manipulated by people standing behind curtains of professional opacity.

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 01:39 | 6674132 Automatic Choke
Automatic Choke's picture

do you cross-check your elliot wave against chicken entrails?

 

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 01:27 | 6674117 agNau
agNau's picture

HMMMMMM
THINK MUCH
....LANGLEY?

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 06:14 | 6674315 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Joe, since I'm backing you for Big Cheese, I wanna show you the secret OpEx button in my desk drawer. Janet tells me when to push it.

Gee, thanks, boss.

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 02:08 | 6674163 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

Looks like there are parties out there desperately pumping up the "markets" every time before OPEX (sold too many puts? scrambling to limit losses?).

Or it's a "strategy"?

Buy calls, sell puts and then buy the underlying stock

Do loop until...

 --> worst case is you convert more and more fiat into equity, can go on a pretty long time

If you're big enough, it might even work for some time. Until it doesn't anymore.

The problem is, the opposite doesn't look so good on the books...

Sell calls, buy puts and sell the underlying stocks or short the stocks

--> at one point there are no "assets" left, just short positions...

(PS: Most of ZH probably know pretty well what is going on, but I'm still trying to figure things out here by thinking loudly; might make me look a bit stupid at times, but would be great to get comments; and if not, what the heck at least some of you can enjoy a good laugh)

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 05:13 | 6674280 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

oct 16 2015 spy max pain = 200

it sits at 202 and change now

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 10:33 | 6675003 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

How is that determined? I am ignorant on that topic.  That observation, assuming it is true, comes from knowledge and understanding.  Will you share or give some insights for learning?  Thank you.

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 03:15 | 6674216 Panic Mode
Panic Mode's picture

There are always suckers in the casino. Every gambler thinks he or she will come out with winnings.

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 06:43 | 6674342 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

what happens next is another opportunity to btfd. yeah bitchez!

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 06:49 | 6674351 Not if_ But When
Not if_ But When's picture

Not trying to be rude or anything - but this bitchez thing is juvenile.

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 07:29 | 6674404 I AM SULLY
I AM SULLY's picture

Are you a little bitch?

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 10:30 | 6674991 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

I wish I could face you person to person; perhaps we live close enough to drive.

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 12:13 | 6675405 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

That is on the wrong side of the line.

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 14:49 | 6676164 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

I eat fish for breakfast; perhaps you live in the midwest?

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 09:37 | 6674800 Who was that ma...
Who was that masked man's picture

Yeah.  Fuckin' juvenile Bitchez.

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 10:29 | 6674985 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

You observe correctly.

 

The abuse and misuse of ones native language; particularly among women, is always indicative of a nation that is near total failure.  There are no exceptions as history shows; always pay attention to the behavior of women, for they are the last to compromise integrity and we are a forgone conclusion.

Fri, 10/16/2015 - 09:54 | 6674852 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Well.... 10AM eastern and no gold smack.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!