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Capital Controls Blowback? Bitcoin Surges Back To Pre-China-Currency Wars Levels
At $267, Bitcoin has retraced the entire plunge from China's initial devaluation entry into the currency wars and the Black Monday dump. It appears, just as we warned, that China's increasing crackdown on its - until now lax - capital controls has spurred demand for alternate 'currencies' that remain out of the control (for now) of governments - like gold...
And Bitcoin...
As we concluded previously, while China is doing everything in its power to not give the impression that it is panicking, the truth is that it is one viral capital outflow report away from an outright scramble to enforce the most draconian capital controls in its history, which - as every Cypriot and Greek knows by now - is a self-defeating exercise and assures an ever accelerating decline in the currency, which authorities are trying to both keep stable while also devaluing at a pace of their choosing. Said pace never quite works out.
So what happens then: well, China's propensity for gold is well-known. We would not be surprised to see a surge of gold imports into China, only instead of going to the traditional Commodity Financing Deals we have written extensively about before, where gold is merely a commodity used to fund domestic carry trades, it ends up in domestic households. However, while gold has historically been the best store of value in history and has outlasted every currency known to man, it is problematic when it comes to transferring funds in and out of a nation - it tends to show up quite distinctly on X-rays.
Which is why we would not be surprised to see another push higher in the value of bitcoin: it was earlier this summer when the digital currency, which can bypass capital controls and national borders with the click of a button, surged on Grexit concerns and fears a Drachma return would crush the savings of an entire nation. Since then, BTC has dropped (in no small part as a result of the previously documented "forking" with Bitcoin XT), however if a few hundred million Chinese decide that the time has come to use bitcoin as the capital controls bypassing currency of choice, and decide to invest even a tiny fraction of the $22 trillion in Chinese deposits...
... in bitcoin (whose total market cap at last check was just over $3 billion), sit back and watch as we witness the second coming of the bitcoin bubble, one which could make the previous all time highs in the digital currency, seems like a low print.
We bring all this up in case there is any confusion why Bloomberg just carried a huge centerfold piece explaining why CDS-inventor Blythe Masters has suddenly become the digital currency's most vocal pitchman and is betting it all on bitcoin, in "Blythe Masters Tells Banks the Blockchain Changes Everything."
Yes, bitcoin may be slowly but surely leaving the domain of the libertarian fringe, but in exchange it is about to be embraced as the most lucrative and commercial "blockchained" way to capitalize on what may soon become the largest capital outflow in history, with "pioneers" such as Blythe front and center to capitalize on each and every outflowing Bityuan.
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Moar eye bleach please.
At least she has an Adam's apple.
Cue Fonestar or whatever handle he is now.
I'll be stacking silver... but bittycoons are starting to get interesting...
OH MY FAWKING GAWD ITS BITCOIN!!!!!!!
$267?
Still a ways to go to recapture $1,200 from last December...
[PS: Blythe has 'Man Hands']
$0 to $250 in < 6 years.
Unit-for-Unit the most powerful currency (by far) on Earth.
Now please try and tell me those are not FACTS!
The $1,200 price was an anomaly arising from Mt. Gox fraud and manipulation. At the time. Mt. Gox was handling 70% of bitcoin/fiat exchanges and had custodial control over a large percentage of bitcoins in use. Nuts for people to hand this power over to Mt. Gox, but at the time most people were still stuck in centralized/trusted bank ways of thinking and behaving.
not really - what allowed the rise was the lax rules on cash inflow.. plenty of money (yes, lots of dirty and china money) flowed into the exchanges... for example Coinbase allowed you to buy 10 bitcoins per week instantly at spot price (they would deliver a day or three later) which in the early part was about $1000 since bitcoin was around $100 back before the ramp up..so once it crossed $1000 BTC, that is now $10,000 per week inflow from each account.. plus all the other exchanges letting it all flow in..
then when the KYC/AML police put a spotlight on the inflows, places like Coinbase switched to only $1000 per week which pinch the hose real good when you can only buy 1 BTC per week and they also didn't always deliver (some customers that weren't whitelisted got the shaft if the volativity was too bad and had their orders cancelled.. but filled when it worked out well for Coinbase) that got people pissed and more people wanted to just sell and leave.. you could sell a lot more than buy during that nosedive.. (as in outflow of money had less constraint than new money in.. and to be clear, a place like Coinbase was more like a broker since you didn't match orders there.. they went to other exchanges to settle..mostly bitstamp but they did others early on.. even btc-e briefly i believe)
as for Mt Gox, people stopped believing in thier price and only really dirty money would go into that hell hole so even if you went for their high arbitrage by sending your cheaper bitcoins into the Gox, you had only a paper gain on their chart.. a roach motel it became.. you couldn't withdrawl for months if at all as the local ponzi/theft exploded.. so that is why 3rd party sites went up so you sold for bits on the bitcoin and transferred internally to a greater fool that thought it may turn around.. I forget but I think near the end it might of been around 50-1 haircut to unload the Mt Gox trapped coins as not even transferring out bitcoin was working anymore
Sounds reasonible to me. I was referring to this Gox manipulation:
http://www.zerohedge.com/node/488930
Gox be gone, let's look to the future.
Zero Hedge Coin 0
15horses1donkey. I think if you keep pimping this idea on Zero Hedge as a cryptocurrency, I am gonna have to track you down, and bitch slap you into the middle of next week for being a pimp ass bankster schill bitcoin wannabe rat bastard motherfucker. IF ZERO HEDGE HAD A FUCKING CURRENCY OF IT'S OWN, IT WOULD BE MINTED IN INCORRUPTABLE NON HYPOTHECATED NON DERIVATIVE NON MARGIN ABLE SILVER OR GOLD. Get your shit together, and change your direction while you still have an ass to kick. Jesus, fucking kids these days. You all think technology is a miracle. All it is is electrons that can be made to go poof any fucking minute now. if i blew up your phone right now, you would look like a cow at the slaughterhouse just at the moment the bolt gun goes off - " How could you do this to me ? What'll I do now ? " Improvise. Adapt. Overcome. Triumph over adversity. And, transform your idea into minting a fucking coin out of noble metals, or I will make you look like a one legged man at a nut kicking contest.
Those shinanigans were part of the smoke screen that I believe Karpeles was weaving to mask the data more and more so his 'hacker glitch' theory that he said went on for years stealing from the cookie jar would be harder to trail. So view it as a scam to cloud the real scam. Like hiring burglers to hit a home that you already stole from.
http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-ceo-mark-karpeles-embezzlement/
As for any of this driving up the price of BTC, it didn't seem like it at the time. I was heavily in the scene those days and the ramp up during Nov 2013 had enough entry points that Mt Gox didn't hold total sway. It became clear people couldn't get money out of that place so that put lots of red flags for anyone conservative.. the arbitrage chasers got burned badly though.
For a while Mt Gox BTC price was around 20-30% higher than the rest.. then after the crash it was around 50% less and then kept dying more and more
http://www.coindesk.com/research-bitcoin-price-higher-repressed-countries/
Turns out Bitcoin is popular wherever financial repression occurs.
"Bitcoin, he says, is a low-cost option which allows citizens of these nations to bypass their domestic financial system."
PS. The paper was written by a liberty loving ZH fanatic.
PPS. Masters doesn't support digital gold (Bitcoin). She wants to make her own digitial currency that is inflatible. Masters is Bitcoins enemy. Masters and her ilk love "blockchain" but not Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is digital gold. What do YOU think Masters stance towards a digital scarce commodity is???
IT SAYS IT RIGHT ON THE FRIGGEN COVER!!!
Cue Fonestar or whatever handle he is now.
fonestar is with you, and also with you!
A succubus?
Blythe is more than welcome to take on the world's most powerful currency. It is teh biggest mistake she will make....
Btc is like gld, you can run, but you can't hide.
Bitcoin is the peak of human stupidity.
go fuck yourself loser, Bitcoin is teh pinnacle of technology!!
No FUCK YOU! Fuck Lysyanskaya, and Daskalakis, and all the rest! You are fucking tools who "think" you're brilliant. You are tools who think your little harmless crypto bullshit is "for the people". And here is where it ends up:
https://eprint.iacr.org/2015/502.pdf
Oh look at that, Sarah has steered your cryptocurrencies right into the arms of the FED. Woops. I wonder how many of you stoopid English Goy saw this one coming? Sarah now located just minutes away from her Rothschild masters.
Take your bullshit bitcoin off of my website! I will permanently BAN anyone who publishes any more Bitcoin fluff articles here!
[The Amish are watching you English. Watching!]
http://amishoutlaws.com/200503_ew_2.jpg
BITCHCOIN
guess it would take a bitch to know one?
Blockchain - a specially kinky type of bondage?
Yes, bonding bankers and borrowers to an open ledger.
balls deep baby!
IIRC, 80+ % of BTC transactions are in Yuan. The Chinese are very familliar with it. Also, I think Blythe, and many others in the space, are looking into disrupting traditional financial services using Blockchain ledger tech, rather than Bitcoin currency itself. It's been a nice run the last couple of weeks. Could it be a sign of Yuan devals to come?
You can't seperate blockchain and bitcoin. If Blythe wants to do it, she demonstrates that she does not unterstand it.
Amen. Like announcing she will be producing square circles, she reveals she doesn't understand what blockchain is nor bitcoin is. Anyone who seriously studies the technology for more than a few days figures out the two are fundamentally inseparable.
But she's of the same institutional banker crowd that is convinced inflation is good, printing money will help the economy, and incentives don't matter. So perhaps that explains everything. Fortunately, in this case it is only her business and career that will implode, not the entire economy.
disrupting traditional financial services using Blockchain ledger tech
Pure idiocy. Blockchain is obscenely inefficient at transaction processing and maintaining a ledger compared to traditional client/server architecture. The only reason for using Blockchain is it confers the unique ability to operate trustlessly, without any centralized authority.
If Blythe is going to need this because she will be stepping outside the law, big banks will not do business with her. If she stays within the law, she'll be using technology many orders of magnitude more inefficient than an ordinary client/server model. The concept is inherently a non-starter, a total fail since the moment of conception.
Tax havens are so 20th century.
Welcome Bitcoin. It doesn't generate interest capitalization, so you only have to declare in taxes when you sell them, it is harder capped than gold (21 million bitcoins maximum), unconfiscatable, easy to transport everywhere. Basically, the tax havens of tax havens.
DING! DING! DING!
You are one out of the many, Satoshi honour goes to you. Bitcoin is teh uLT1mate tax haven!
So many ZHer’s have a hard on for bit coin. They can be as Neanderthal as they can be intelligent at times. If it ain’t bullion they disdain it. I got news for ya. When capital controls really kick in and there’s no bullion to be had, people aren’t going to buy accordions, pianos, and farm implements like they did in Weimar Germany. Only bitcoin gets you out relatively cleanly. Its gonna go to the moon too. Why not have a little and enjoy the ride?
Well, Good Luck with that after the CFTC, the SEC and the IRS control all the Exchanges:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/digital-currency-derivatives-exchanges-prepare-for-regulation-after-cftc-bitcoin-ruling-1443197199
but at some point people won't want fiat and only make an exchange of goods and services in other things.. like gold or BTC. so they can clamp down on the in and outflows from banks but the point is they have no control over transactions on the blockchain
SELL ALL RALLIES
Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; bitcoin is the money of technofiles; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves.
Barter? When was barter ever a thing?
For all the barter deniers out there...
I don't know when it existed and I don't care, the concept is good to explain money. We know we have money now, that they must have developed at some point, and that human trade have existed as long as humans have, or at least before money developed. Therefore we can say that barter has existed.
Just be aware that in a market, for instance a prehistoric, undocumented market, just consisting of a place for a few people to meet, as soon as some commodity or good was preferred due to its higher liquidity, that commodity becomes the money and it is no longer a barter market.
Barter goes on now.. and the IRS hates it when you dont list your barter exchanges in your taxes since that is a way to get away from sales tax, etc... they have rules for it
Bitcoin is scarce.
Is gold even scarce? (Please not the Cabal controlled data on gold quantities)
Still in this "running correction" but trying to develop a confirmed change to LT trend. Next bull it goes to at least 2.5x current ATH.
That jamie dimon in drag, cant quite make out the potus ear-rings though
The Chinese giving up on their history of gold and sending their money to the CIA via BTC instead, ...genius.
David Hannum was right, just like PT Barnum.
Small change
Fart in a windstorm
"China gots the gold"
So at $264.20 time stamp, it has been no lower than about $220 in a long time. Pretty stable for the most part $220.00-$265.00 since it tanked the first time. It seems to level out in that area.
$265.00 is not a lot of money in $.
But what if it did reach above $1K, and you didn't balk at BTC and choose to have 'just one'?
Just one is the same as the needless expenditure you don't mind throwing out $265.00 for month after month.
And you can buy as little of a piece of BTC like a 1/4 BTC, just to have.
My understanding is that 220$ish is the cost in electricity to produce 1BTC. Reward halves sometime next year.
Current estimate: Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-07-25 22:00:19 UTC
Just as with gold, the price decides the cost (modified with some speculative action). The cost to produce a bitcoin tends to roughly equal the price.
The point about gold being difficult to transport was true until recently. Now there is BitGold as well, for transactions in gold across borders. And Uplift, for free convertibility and international transactions in fiat.
The uptake of bitcoin will boost its price, that's for sure. It remains to be seen if a currency crisis in the Yuan is going to be the thing that makes it happen.
BitGold is the stupidest idea possible: take gold which is inherently not suited for digital trade and make it digitally tradable by strapping whole lot of counterparty risk on it. Thanks, but no.
Bitcoin is free market, private money. I repeat, it is money. Base money, not debt. It has interesting capabilities better than gold, gold has some traits that bitcoin does not have.
Bitcoin is bitcoin, the blockchain is a part of it, and bitcoin is a part of blockchain. They are inseparable. It is not a payment system, it is the actual money.
Regulation by the state - so be it. Basically, we don't care.
umm... no.. bitcoin is just a portion of the blockchain ledger. Satoshis being the smallest portion and 1 BTC is a large unit of them.. View it more like real estate on a protocol.
but seriously folks, BTC was around $300 not to long ago when i was selling.. so not sure what the big post on ZH now.. oh Tyler's must be pumpin!! lulz
No, bitcoin is not money unless you believe it is. Bitcoin is digital bullshit. Gold at least is real and tangible.
Based on your pov, your bank account is also "digital bullshit". The govt and the banks themselves can easily confiscate your deposits but how do you confiscate someone's bitcoins without the private key?
According to my research, the S&P500 evolves in 7 (calendar) day cycles, of which the 7, 21, 35, 42, 63 and 91 day cycles are the most relevant for the short term (days). For the medium and longer longer term, the 105, 119, 294, 1077, 1141 and the 3141 cycle are decisive. Whenever these cycles are ling up, it’s TIME to pay attention.
http://tripstrading.com/2015/10/17/sp500-11-tools-to-define-your-strateg...
The first upcoming date of the TripsTrading Cycle Model (TTCM) that might correct some (or all, see Fibonacci and Elliot Wave) of this short squeeze up is October 19: a day where the following cycles are lined up: 21, 63, 84, 91, 105, 119, 294 and the 3141 day cycle.
I have to be fair, not every TTCM date is an instant jackpot. OCT 1 was followed by a 30 points drop, OCT 5 marked a 15 points drop and OCT 8 a 22 points drop. Difficult to trade for the medium term, so maybe the value of my model lies in something else: defining the trend, mark Elliot Wave Highs and Lows and use it for short term trades.
The last TTCM dates (OCT 1, 5, 8) all signaled short term Highs, so a short term UP trend. Maybe that’s the real value of the model. that it will adjust to pointing out Highs in an UP trend and Lows in a DOWN trend. This idea just entered my mind, so I have to do some more research to defend this hypothesis. .
Over the last week, there was a Bradley Model Time Window scheduled for OCT 9-10 and one for today, OCT 17. Next Bradley Date NOV 1.
Armstrong mentioned on his blog some time ago that next week, OCT 19-23, there’s a Panic Cycle. The last Panic Cycle was AUG 24. Believe him or not, the last time it was correct, so it might as well be correct this week.
Hard to believe it will Panic to the upside take into account we already surged 8.7% form the Lows of SEP 29.
Conclusion: Based on Cyclical Analysis and Time, a short term High OCT 19 would make sense.
Who cares what its current value is? I am not interested in owning it (long term). I only want to use it as an exchange of value - a process that takes but a few days. Unless the volatility gets ridiculous, it can go up or down a few bucks a day without affecting probably two-thirds of its users.
You can down vote all you want but BC is an illusion, just more fiat. Your belief it is valuable because it is limited is as silly as saying the USD has value. Anything that can be mutliplied by a keyboard stroke is bullshit! Oh, and the "mysterious" creator is suspicious to no one? Geez.
Show us a better alternative for daily use than fiat or bitcoin (cryptocurrency)? Buy milk and bread with gold nuggets?
The author is mixed up. It's not BITCOIN which is useless mostly but BITGOLD. GoldMoney BITGOLD is what they should and will buy as word spreads about it
https://www.bitgold.com