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A Perilous Possibility: Weaponizing The Fed
The world sits at a very precarious point once again in time. There is a very real possibility, as well as an ever-increasing chance one wrong unintended or misunderstood event could trigger an all out war of global proportions. Yes, I said it, and I don’t take it lightly. Nor do I say it cavalierly. As a matter of fact my blood ran cold just typing it. For the matter at hand, the players involved, the possibilities of doing just the slightest of wrong moves whether intentional or not. At precisely the wrong time; has the inherent risk of triggering world events in ways and at magnitudes not seen since (dare I say) WW2. And if you think that’s hyperbole – you’ve just not been paying attention.
Currently as we sit events that were expressed by the main stream outlets as having no chance of ever happening (implying they weren’t worth contemplating) are not only happening – they’re turning out to be far more dangerous in both their escalation, as well as speed. The only thing rivaling my level for concern are the reasons being touted via both official, as well as media interpretations on why or, what is to be expected. The current double speak, plausible denials, moving of heavy armaments, ships, troop deployments, kinetic engagement, finger wagging from not one, but more than several world military powers has been breathtaking. All this over the course of just two or three weeks. The risks in my opinion for misstep with global ramifications haven’t been this perilous in decades.
One of the real reasons for my concern stems from the players involved. I’m far more concerned and have a greater sense of foreboding when it appears the “intellectual” set are the one’s playing against adversaries or circumstances they themselves only understand through textbooks or debate. i.e., A relative example could be the proverbial college professor that teaches business theory and application yet, has never been outside the walls of academia.
Back in April of 2014 the situation in Ukraine was all the media channels cared about. They touted how X, Y, and Z would be the obvious resolution. (X,Y, and Z represented everything breaking decisively, as well as matter of factually in the U.S.’s favor) The problem was, anyone with any understanding of what one “thinks” should take place because they “believe” that it should be so; as opposed to actually looking at the situation, the players, the posture, and verifiable resolve through previous actions; it was clear to see the outcome was going to be far different from what the “intellectual” crowd proposed as well as believed.
During that period I wrote an article titled “Why Intellectual Leadership Can Get You Killed” in that article I made one of the following arguments:
“The intellectual prowess of the so-called “smart crowd” can not only be dwarfed by the truly ruthless leader, but can put both themselves as well as their company or followers in grave peril. For intellectuals think out processes far too much. Then do nothing.
They’ll over think why someone would do X, Y, or Z. They put themselves into shoes that don’t fit, then spend more time contemplating if their opponents should be wearing leather vs rubber soles. All the while their opponent laughs running circles around them barefoot.”
That first line could be used to describe the Fed.’s past inaction on rate hikes. For if you listen to the arguments made by the members themselves – over intellectualized the consequences is exactly what describes their reasoning and resulting decision. And the second? You could say the same for just how Ukraine ended. My premise was utterly mocked during this period – today it fits far closer to the ending results than even I dared think. Which is also the basis for my concern today.
Currently the once advocated U.S. involvement in Syria is not only turning into an all out political humiliation, but what might be worse is it’s not coming at the hands of just a perceived or noted adversary. It’s also coming at the hands of another military power that for all intent and purposes is being held up as “a regime we can work with” as they work in concert against U.S. stated warnings to the contrary. I wish this all we had to worry about, but as usual, it’s not.
Since our involvement in Syria (however it was achieved) one of the stated reasons why was for the goal of extinguishing terrorist threats seated there that could eventually turn up here. So far the progress has been seen, as well as reported, to be less than inspiring. Then suddenly not only is the U.S. brushed aside. It was basically told – move aside; and stay aside – while we show how it’s done. Moves like this, by these powers, on this level of stage and engagement are done precisely to test “intellectual” resolve against forceful resolve. A calculus not played for checkers or chess, but for far more dangerous games with onerous consequences.
Add to this the simultaneous display of “Watch this!” alarm bells as Iran launched its newest long-range missile in an apparent thumbing-its-nose enticed provocation to any one caring to watch. All while the U.S. (and supposedly other U.N. bodies) are negotiating a weapons treaty. Forget about “the ink not even dry.” It’s not even fully signed.
Concurrently as all this is playing out, it’s been announced the U.S. is indeed going to send warships to challenge China in an outright confrontation styled game of “who blinks first” to contest their proclamation that both the territory around and of the Spratly Islands is irrefutably theirs.
Who on this earth believes this is the time to do such a provocation? I’ll tell you who: the intellectual set. That’s who. For the belief of “we can handle this” by debating and game playing override what begs clear, common sense, level-headed, outright caution. And that’s a problem on so many levels from my perspective.
The warning signs of danger are flashing everywhere, but they seem to be falling not only deaf ears, but those that might be blind to the speed one misstep could turn every contingency plan – to absolute useless trash. These are the times I believe Mike Tyson summed up best, “Every one’s got a plan – till they get punched in the face.” I’m of the opinion we’re now walking round chin out, and chip shouldered. The problem is someone just might take the shot. And who, where, or why might not be exactly what the intellectual set ever contemplated. And that’s a very big concern.
Then there’s what I stated in title of this article: The Fed. And here’s where things begin to rattle my cage even more. With the current global marketplace intertwined as tightly and as correlated to what happens with the U.S. Dollar as well as outright policy changes or stances by the Fed. The question begs to be answered or asked: Would or could the powers that be look to the Fed. and state (or demand) “Raise rates, drop rates, ___________ (fill in the blank) now!?”
I think it would be crazy not to contemplate the possibilities of such a move out-of-the-blue, unannounced with what is transpiring currently. That’s why I intentionally used the word “weaponize.” For it’s one thing for the Fed. to try to dance the line of the body politic when decisions are being made. It changes into something far different if, or when – they are instructed to do something. Not asked, or advised.
Currently it is more than fair to say the current language, as well as position of where they (the Fed.) believe policy should be heading is all over the board. Again, that’s to say the least. However, all this has to be wrapped up in the assumption the powers that be at the Fed. are making the choices whether one thinks they’re correct or wrong is a side argument.
Wall Street, as well as the global markets are working from the assumption they need to game play what the Fed. and its players are stating. And I’m not saying that’s incorrect – it’s the possibility of that changing overnight by means of some outside dictate which may be demanded that’s the real reason for concern. For it changes everything where the resulting chaos of the markets could make ’08 look like a “good day” compared to what might transpire following such an intervention.
Some will say or argue, “That wouldn’t happen for it would hurt us probably just as much as anyone else. That’s just crazy talk.” And there is a point to that argument. However, I will pose this rebuttal: If that were true; then why do people die in wars and infrastructure destroyed in epic proportions when both sides know exactly that – and do it anyway? This is precisely the way intellectual arguments are at first proposed, then result in consequences the proposers of that intellectual strategy get blindsided. Many times with appalling repercussions. Hence lies the reasoning for my concerns.
Even if we take out all of the above, another overarching possibility that could throw the markets (whether from a misstep or, by design) into an outright tailspin of epic proportions and consequences overnight, fueled by a sudden carry trade unwind within the forex markets which could (if not would) simultaneously crush global equities. All of which could transpire via a HFT fueled algorithmic ignited frenzy brought on by an intentional media headline like: WAR! Think that’s crazy talk? Just look back to August for clues.
With the way the current global markets are now predisposed to HFT – If one wanted to put a hurt on a presumed or proposed adversaries economy; why wait for sanctions to be reimposed or, tightened or, a number of other financial weapons that need to be brought for a vote or, announced or, whatever: when it could be done today through various other means with only a nod-of-the-head.
This is the place we currently find ourselves. And if you own a business, regardless of size, you need to have contingency plans in at least a cursory overview understanding on actions to implement either for yourself, or with your people; for all hard plans usually go out the window the moment they’re needed. But understanding and contingency discussions ahead of time help quell panic during business disruptions.
Circumstances can change rapidly as to what may or, may not be available in as much as operations funding, supply lines, currency exposure, and more. This holds true not only for the global entity, but also for small businesses. You need to be actively thinking “what if” scenarios if your serious about business during times like these. Others won’t understand and that’s fine – they aren’t in business: you are. It comes with the position.
These are the circumstances of the day, and those circumstances have changed with the very real possibility that what was once taken as “We believe we have an idea of what the Fed. may do for the rest of the year.” Is now only part of the equation. With the current military changes, positioning, as well as rhetoric coming from global leaders around the world; what the Fed. may or, may not do or, signal – might be out of their decision-making process altogether. As implausible as this may sound today: It’s a risk that any prudent business person must now consider. Again, regardless of how far-fetched it might appear at first glance.
I’m completely aware all the above will be argued away by many as “crazy talk” and that’s fine. However, seeing around corners or, trying to anticipate circumstances that have real chances for disruption on one’s business is a crucial requirement of any prudent entrepreneur, CEO, or solo-practitioner. There is no alternative – it falls on you. With that said I’ll ask you to ponder one last point.
Back in May of 2014 I wrote an article titled “Will History Record The Ending Of QE As An Archduke Moment?” In that article I proposed why one needed to take prudent steps as to help prepare one’s business to possible global changing consequences that could come from nowhere with blinding speed. Where the consequences could have both local, as well as, global concerns. Again, like many before this was brushed out-of-hand, mocked, and shouted down as some form of “crazy talk” from some kind of “alarmist” or “Chicken Little.”
Today? Since QE did in fact end, not only have the markets around the world sputtered and set off alarms bells; it’s now being widely reported via main stream media channels Russia and the U.S. are now engaging in a proxy war in Syria. Along with Iran who not only is also engaged in direct opposition to the U.S., but is also launching newly developed missiles in open defiance of U.S. concerns. All this while not only is the U.S. sending warships to challenge China’s claims around the Spratly Islands, it’s also been announced we are reversing policy in Afghanistan and staying with troops for who knows how long. And I didn’t even mention NATO jets or bases in other countries saber-rattling against Russian flyby’s. Or the Saudi’s who are also voicing troubling warnings towards Russia.
This has all taken place in the course of two to three weeks. Not months, not years. And it’s seems to be getting worse – not better.
If you started to at least begin taking precautions when I first warned, you would at the least have some form of contingency plan or idea of what preparations you may take if such events did ever take place. Those events have now moved from “possibly” to a razors edge of “highly plausible” if not outright likely.
Bombs are dropped when no one expects. That’s a fact of war. And to not think that somewhere within the bowels of some “think tank” the “intellectual argument” isn’t being made or, considered which involves using the Fed. or a monetary equivalent to act as a first-strike capability weapon is ludicrous. When it comes to the world stage where global entities are out-rightly challenging one and other for supremacy, hegemony, or even respect – all considerations – and I do mean all will be on the table.
The time for contemplating “what if’s” has passed. The time to prepare for “there’s a greater chance than not” is now the prudent policy. Your business now depends far too greatly like it or not to a Fed. policy move. The problem is – the Fed. could be the contingency that drops the first one. And there will be no announcement, no speech, no meeting, no nothing as to preempt its happening. All one can do is plan for the worst – hope for the best. But to ignore the possibility of either could be business suicide. Plain, and simple.
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Besides screwing-up in the Middle East, we’ve screwed-up everywhere else…
Remember how unwilling Merkel was to impose sanctions against Russia? Well, the SEC threatened Deutsche Bank with the $18 Billion fine and, voilà, the sanctions are promptly imposed on Russia and Deutsche Bank’s penalty is reduced to $2.3 Billion (spread between the US and UK).
France, at the same time, wasn’t as forthcoming with the sanctions, so BNP Paribas was hit with the $9 Billion fine, the equivalent of 18 Mistrals!
On September 3, 2015, Russia’s Gazprom and Germany’s BASF/Watershall signed a huge assets-swapping deal giving Gazprom even a tighter grip on the gas trading and storage in Europe. This deal had been in the works for a few years, but it was put on ice in 2014 due to the “political environment”.
Just two weeks after the deal was signed, on September 18, 2015 the Volkswagen emissions scandal began.
Now, Japan is flirting with Russia again and South Korea is categorically refusing to allow our missiles on their soil, both prompting the State Department’s whining and bitchin’.
There’s a simple rule – don’t shit where you eat. We, however, have shitted for far too long in far too many places and the day of reckoning is cometh. I think? ;-)
Looney
https://www.basf.com/en/company/news-and-media/news-releases/2015/10/p-1...
good points.
"weaponizing the Fed"? gimmeabreak. All you have to know is how fucked up the rest of the world is, Exhibit A: Venezuela. (Did anybody see the NYT article on Sunday, RE: How Venezuela hates the 'Bolivar' ??)
CAN YOU SAY "DOLLARIZATION" ??? (SO WHY IS THE OLD COMMIE WRITER, MARK ST. CYR, OFF ON THIS TACT?)
tack (sailing term).
Jibe, ho!
Another sailing term.
accidental jibe
chinese jibe
and cheap--they're on sail.
And I know this doesn't jive with your jibe, but the word in questions is actually jib. It's a small triangular sail on the front of a sailing ship, (not a boat). All this talk just shivers me timbers, er..., matey.
Just a little reminder to All: those "FRN's" in whoever's pocket are OWNED by whom? And if the "Fraud Preserve" (Fed) decided to Retake possession and another "entity" established" a replacement "currency", would such a senerio be possibly considered "weapon-percipitated" WW event? Is there a difference between "FRN's" - physical OR digital - and United States of America "Dollars" as defined in the U.S. CONstitution?
"Would or could the powers that be look to the Fed. and state (or demand) “Raise rates, drop rates, ___________ (fill in the blank) now!?”
Perhaps the author would know the answer to that question if he acknowledged the simple reality that the Fed IS the powers that be. All wars are banker wars.
Could the Federal Reserve trigger the start of a greater global conflict? If so, what is controlling this power?
Inherent resolve is a human trait to do everything within their power to continue to remain in power and control its environment. These people are playing a big boy game we arent privy to and its just getting started.
and remember a large number of the current cast of characters in d.c. and elsewhere in the u.s. and israel are guilty of treason and murder in the 9-11 incidents. that makes them particularly unwilling to release the levers of power.
spending one's retirement in adx florence truly is different than in nearby jackson hole or somewhat distant st. bart's.
sounds fancy. ill be lucky to die peacfully in hoosierville. and my retirement will be chopping wood and carrying water.
The Fed was a weapon from day one. And it gets more powerful every single day.
Nothing new here.
Move along
The parallels to Woodrow Wilson are uncanny.
The Fed is not the controlling power. The Fed, Buffet, Soros, Obama, Putin, the Congress, the Senate, all are puppets to a higher power. If we have WWIII it will be because the real powers have decided to do it for their own gain. The Fed does not need to aquire their own weapons. The real powers already control the armed forces of most develped nations. Prepare for the worst and don't think that any of the elite are on your side.
So if the eight or nine richest people in the world arent pulling the strings, what is? Can I name the mystery "It" in the sky so we can blame it all on the divine? Hmmm......they live, indeed.
Too simple. Very many players, very many interests, everyone is ally of all and at odds with all. Lots of negotiation on details, which is why TPP took forever.
Fed is a player and has long-term interests that make them cooperate with other players. Interests such as keeping heat off the politicians who appointed them, if they want cozy positions in the future, and the banks happy with the rate of cheap credit arriving, if they want lucrative jobs when their Fed stint is done.
Trump also. He has investments, some Fed actions could hurt those, so there is a limit to his criticism. As he said, cheap credit is good for builders.
Banksters make donations to politicians and help rotate people from their executive ranks through the fed.
It is never cut-and-dried, how things turn out, there is genuine drama, angst, win and loss in these games.
But nobody with serious power gets screwed except by losing elections. That is one of the rules of the game.
Interesting to think how those rules would mutate, given NSA's assistance and secure communication links.
https://thinkpatriot.wordpress.com/2015/01/08/operation-soft-samson/
https://thinkpatriot.wordpress.com/2015/01/09/operation-soft-samson-mgcu...
https://thinkpatriot.wordpress.com/2015/01/09/operation-soft-samson-blac...
Bullshit.
This author has no idea who these people really are, and is maniacal, scare mongering cunt.
They (the elite) do not like chaos, or anything that resembles a lack of control, or a threat to their lifestyle.
They are boring, selfish fucks, who largely despise each other as competitors in their collective wealth hoarding psychosis. They are fat and happy and they will do anything to keep it that way.
The FED is their tool. The White House Monkey is their tool. The British, Canadian, Australian and New Zealand parliaments are tools. Germany is an occupied vassal state. France is a schizophrenic drunkin' bitch.
Their media controls your minds. Their military (NATO) plays geopolitical games and their police control their streets.
Refugees, rioting hoards, protests and chaotic equity markets scare them.
Russia, China and ZH, or anything they do not control worries them.
The central banks will run their balance sheets to absurdity, then they will start the purging.
More limited proxy wars, quietly rising dead pools and a reset (controlled default) of their coordinated debt loads.
Their plan is to quietly kill you, keep the status quo and let nothing get out of their control.
You have been warned.
So how do YOU know their plans?
I think your full of shit and like the sound of your own voice.
Insurr
Unless the scritp has been changed they will not allow deflation. They will hyperinflate. It is less painful and nominally the banking system survives.
So far the ROW, which could have smelled the blood and come in for the kill. I don't see that. Unless Putin is a skilled liar he is doing what he said he would do. (The news we get makes it sould like aggression but really his moves have been measured.)
China will probably allow the US forces to sail near the Sprattlys but if they lose face there WILL be a price paid. It could be a wrecking of the monetary system. I suppose the politicians do't see that as possible but all they have to do is sell treasuries, juast a f
BO We are coming to protect the interest of our allies in the S China Sea.ew more than needed. That alone could be zee Black Swan.
I can imagine the call between Xi and Barry.
Barry: get the fuck out of our Ocean
Xi...really?
Barry: Oh and could you spot me a trill until payday? Much love.
They might hyperinflate in the end to save government, but not before a lot of small home owners/farmers lose their land.
So,,,the Fed is going to print WWIII?
The Rocks and Roths fund the big ones and bet on both sides
Christian soldiers will be left frozen in place. Just as planned. Then, they'll seize our homes and send us into the streets penniless.
Bernanke Leaves Fed with Record Balance Sheet of $4.1 Trillion
As of Feb. 1, 2006, when Bernanke took over as chairman, the Fed’s balance sheet indicated it owned $748,840,000,000 in U.S. Treasury securities.
At that time, the balance sheet listed no mortgage-backed securities.
As of Jan. 29, 2013, the balance sheet indicated the Fed owned $2,243,176,000,000 in U.S. Treasury securities and $1,532,224,000,000 in mortgage-backed securities.
Unlimited credit for GSEs seen as backdoor bailout (snip)
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/ali-meyer/bernanke-leaves-fed-record-balance-sheet-4102138000000#sthash.XkRM6MBm.dpuf
"NEW YORK (RealMoney) — The largest transfer of wealth from the public to private sector is about to begin. The federal government will be bulk-selling the massive portfolio of foreclosed homes now owned by HUD, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to private investors — vulture funds."
http://www.mybudget360.com/fed-mbs-housing-market-fed-mortgage-backed-se...
Raising rates now makes 0 sense unless you are of the tought that the fed was focused on keeping the dollar strong/creating the EM crisis so the US/squids could go in and buy up the world for pennies (or Ringgit, Riyal, Dong or whatever) on the dollar.
What is Killing the USA?
This has Destroyed the USA (sadly) and by its own hand:
"People who lie to themselves, and believe their own lies, becomes unable to recognize the truth, either in themselves or in anyone else.
And they end up losing respect for themselves and for others. When they have no respect, they can no longer love.
So they yield themselves up to their impulses, indulging in the lowest forms of pleasure, and behave in the end like a thing obsessed in satisfying their vices.
And it all comes from lying — to others and to yourself."
Fyodor Dostoevsky, The Brothers Karamazov
Ho hum
The first thing any invading army does is interrupt communications and begin spreading propaganda. The people do as they are told. Leadership compels them to act in certain ways and the state of the US population, all 1st world middle class and lower class is exactly as the governments want them. Docile. Considering the Heist of Epic Proporations and apparent elimination of the middle class, the message is skewed because the element of surprise is essential. Criminals run this show.
"There is no greater power in the world today than that wielded by the manipulators of public opinion in America. No king or pope of old, no conquering general or high priest ever disposed of a power even remotely approaching that of the few dozen men who control America's mass news and entertainment media. "
http://www.sweetliberty.org/issues/shadow/jewishmedia.htm#.ViS_oyuTnYM
"
only about 20 percent of the country’s 1,600 papers are independently owned; the rest belong to multi-newspaper chains. Only 104 of the total number have circulations of more then 100,000. Only a handful are large enough to maintain independent reporting staffs outside their own communities; the rest must depend on these few for all of their national and international news."
https://www.darkmoon.me/2015/jewish-newspaper-calls-on-israel-to-nuke-ir...
"An Israeli publication has suggested that nuclear bombs should be launched at Iran and Germany—wiping out Tehran, Isfahan, Berlin, Munich, Hamburg, Nuremberg, Cologne, Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Dresden, and Dortmund. “Twenty to thirty bombs,” Jewish writer Ben-Eliyahu raves, “will get the job done.”
http://www.jta.org/2014/04/01/news-opinion/israel-middle-east/does-adels...
"With the new purchase, Adelson now has control of Israel’s major right-wing media outlets, as well as two of the country’s four major newspapers."
http://prospect.org/article/uniquely-awful-role-sheldon-adelson-israeli-...
"It is no secret that the free paper Israel Hayom loses $3 million a month, and cannot be profitable."
"Netanyahu enjoys the advantage of having a major newspaper in his camp that portrays the world as seen from his office: a world in which Israel is surrounded by enemies, including the president of the United States; in which peace negotiations are aimed at destroying Israel; in which Israel's left is aligned with all the hostile forces, and even rightists who oppose Netanyahu want to carry out a coup through the instrument of elections."
Hayek said it best....Central Planners operate under "presumed knowledge"...
They PRESUME they are correct, they PRESUME the theories are correct, they PRESUME they know
better than millions of people acting on free market inputs....
And where will we find Bernanke and Yellen and Paulson and Rubin and Dimon and Raines and Mozilla...when it implodes?
We will want to find them......very badly, very angrily
I'll bet all that fancy equiptment and some of the personnel over at the old NSA can find them where ever they are.
Why do the aforementioned scummers want a big-ass war so eagerly? If you were in their tentuous situation, would you want a "RE-Constitut[ed]" United States with it's current level of military capability wanting your ass? Target located, carrier/proximinal military base/drone positioned, missile/smart-bombed delivered, POOF.
During WWII the Federal Govt would NOT print extra money to pay for the two wars...they asked people to buy War Bonds...
Now, if unemployment #s are off just a bit, if retail sales are a little down, if inventories are up, or if the stock market comes down 10% after going up 100%....the Fed prints money
Capitalism without bankruptcy is like religion without Hell
huh?
How could the Fed do anything but hurt the dollar?
They struggle to prevent fatal deflation dancing the line of hyperinflation. So what if they raised interest rates....more deflation! Collapse of EM debt and the USG would have to tighten at a time when they already have to increase the debt ceiling.
If they QE I suppose that could help, until some kid says...'look mommy, the emperor is wearing a barrel with suspenders.
I say they did a heckava job these last 7 years. They kept the truth from becoming manifest. We got a few more years to get ready etc.
The game is about over. They could try a few other things like NIRP but I don't think anyone would see that as anything but a death rattle.
Time to reset the board and let some new players try their luck...you know...the ones who survive with capital intact.
Oh, I hear McDonalds is raising the price of a burger...to $135...but that's weeks away.
Europe is getting overrun by Muslims to punish it for the perceived ills of WW2, the US is being overrun by Mexicans to make them more malleable and the entire ME is being destabilized into anarchy so when the next big war gets started the land from the Nile to the Euphrates can be occupied and ethnically cleansed by the usual suspects.
Compared to the planned wars we are being driven to these accidental wars I'm supposed to be worried about seem almost harmless.
America the suicide financial bomb.
A very incoherent article. "Weaponizing the Fed" means only one thing - having the Fed buy and sell foreign currencies to manipulate exchange rates. Nobody is talking about having the Fed do that.
With robots and drones there will be no need for consent of the public to conduct wars. Already seen it. And can forsee robotic mercenary armies.
WB, where are you?? You should be on this like a dog in heat.
since 1913 the fed. owners have kept america in world wars or regional hot wars.
this article brings up more than financial warfare,
the next war,going to be on he politicians, the politicians will have to go out to the public and peddle their over used, energy, terrorist, national security, bs., just after being pants in Syria.
thiers plenty of 18-35 yr. old draftees available,world-wide, but today their parents ,and grand-parents would set them down and give them a history lesson on the peto-dollar that's killed millions.
what countries in the m.e., would america, and or nato go nuclear over to protect, and why?
america could be energy independent, nato could get energy, without m.e..
well, theres nothing but money-to be made-while supplying the Army with the tools of the trade!