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Homebuilder Sentiment Surges To Highest In 10 Years On "Hope" Of Future Sales
Homebuilders are optimistic... When you career relies on confidence, what more would one expect? But in this case, despite some weakness in current data and stangant buyer traffic, the HANB sentiment index surged to new cycle highs - at the highest since Oct 2005 - thanks to a surge in "futures sales expectations." Seems to us like betting on homebuilders' ability to see the future, given 2006 onwards is lkike believing Yellen has everything "contained" this time too...
All about future sales expectations (because actual sales have tumbled)...
Just keep hoping...
So what is the spin following this great data? It is so great, it will force the Fed to keep rates.... low
#NAHB now the highest since Oct 2005 (68). Data likely to keep #Fed on hold as #economy needs low rates
— Joseph A. LaVorgna (@Lavorgnanomics) October 19, 2015
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NIRP will soon be here after 87 months of ZIRP.
Then you buy a house, make no payments, and own the house, free and clear, in 30 years
Such is the miracle of free money from the Fed.
But, I have bad credit. Does that even matter?
Nope, just add hope.
Hope is like hot sauce. Makes everything more palatable.
pods
although exciting, nirp is not for you. it is what you get paid for your savings.
however we will know that in fact shit is through the fan, in mid-air, and about to attach itself to our faces if the fed/treasury actually starts giving new principal/interest rate reductions, cash payments, whatever to people who aren't too big to fail.
H O P E
How Our Prosperity Ended
Wouldn't the bank then owe you money for living in your new house?
No, no, no. THEY get to borrow the money at NIRP from the Fed. Then they lend it to you at a positive interest rate and collect the spread on both sides of the transaction.
BTW- I assume everyone has noticed how ZIRP has already reduced your credit card interest rate from an average of 16% a few years ago down to 16% currently,
Oh, the game is understood... However you have to carry it to the conclusions it will never be allowed to reach in order to demonstrate the absurdity of it.
It's such a shame we didn't borrow all our national debt at NIRP, we could be earning interest on it by now.
well they are trying. someone's buying. s/he won't always be happy about it either.
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2014/09/30/treasury-may-short...
Well, at least it's going alot better for the Canadians:
Calgary home sales plummet since last Augusthttp://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-home-sales-drop-1.3212948
House sales plunge in Calgary as energy sector job losses mountHome sales plunged 27 per cent in August from a year earlier, while the benchmark and average resale prices both fell, the Calgary real estate board said Tuesday.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/house-sales-plunge-in-...
NIRP is to encourage the banks to lend to you. That don't mean you are getting negative interest on your savings or on your mortgage. What the Fed is terrified to admit is that their is NO ONE TO LEND THE MONEY TO at current valuations. Housing is going to tank because Dodd Frank has effectively banned the negative amortization loans that allowed NINJA buyers to squeeze into more house than they could ever possibly afford.
Looks good if you're holding out to buy. The market is going to tank regardless. 2016/17 should have cratering prices AND some of the lowest mortgage rates in history. Win/Win for those of us waiting to time the market.
fucking hilarious....
Green shoots everbody!
Yes, of the homebuilders who are left and who cater mostly to the high-end home market (because nobody builds cheap new homes any more), things are not so awfully terrible right now.
If you build mansions, QE will come....
I was thinking the other day about the metrics that are reported in the MSM are not really the same as 20 years ago - the internals are not the same -
this is one example the mix of housing on a mass scale since WWII had completely different clientele than the builders today who are providing sentiment of a subset of the previous housing market.
Same is true for industrial change metrics - when you have massive US industry of the 1950 to 2000 and they had changes in production, employment, inventory etc the effect coast to coast was huge - today many components produced offshore for finals assembly here or not at all - if a washing machine has the major components as a unit shipped in from Mexico or Phillipines and then dropped into a shell - punched out here - the labor assembly content is minimal but the accounting still shows final product as manufacturing output in total when all that happened was someone wrote a check to the supplier for 90% of the value. Yet they report the final numbers the same way
The comparison of the size of US GDP vs China is seriously questionable from a manufacturing standpoint - it must be anywhere from 20 to 50% less than actually reported - if there was a VAT tax it would show how truly bad it really is since VAT measures and pays based upon value added in the supply chain
Hope: That endogenous drug that gets you from failing to prepare to thoughts of success.
Merika, fuck yeah!
pods
From Bloomberg: "Still slightly sub-par traffic, unchanged at a sub-50 level of 47, isn't holding down sales, though the lack of traffic does point to lack of participation from first-time home buyers. "
Cash rules as those with it need no mortgage.
This is what happens when you smoke crack.
High dose antidepressant prescriptions must be common among homebuilders.
There's never been a better time to conduct a public execution of all living current and former Federal Reserve Board Governors.
i oppose capital punishment but has there ever really been a bad time?
"Federal Reserve Board Governors."
Treasonous private bankers
All news is good news, like publicity, my little Algo said so!
And a guy on CNBS confirmed it!
get the helicopter yellen, you piece of wretched shit!!
dem greenshoots still shooting
If you want to see a great example of how builders are always late to the party, check out Trump's real estate deals.
When you are the bottom of a well, the only option is to look up and hope.
When you are the bottom of a well,
keep digging to give investors hope
Actually I believe this and home building will increase. The prices of currently existing homes are so freaking out of wack in many markets that a person can actually build for the same price and decide how you want it in addition everything is new (furnace, air conditioner, appliances, windows, flooring).