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If Caterpillar's Data Is Right, This Is A Global Industrial Depression
Most cats bounce at least once when they die, but not this one: after CAT posted its first annual drop in retail sales in December of 2012, it has failed to see a rise in retail sales even once.
In fact, since then Caterpillar has seen 34 consecutive months of declining global sales, and 11 consecutive months of double digit declines!
Why is this important? Because a month ago we asked: "What On Earth Is Going On With Caterpillar Sales?"
We have been covering the ongoing collapse in global manufacturing as tracked by Caterpillar retail sales for so long that there is nothing much to add.
Below we show the latest monthly data from CAT which is once again in negative territory across the board, but more importantly, the global headline retail drop (down another 11% in August) has been contracting for 33 consecutive months! This is not a recession; in fact the nearly 3 year constant contraction - the longest negative stretch in company history - is beyond what most economists would deem a depression.
We got the answer just three days later when the industrial bellwether confirmed the world is now in an industrial recession, when it not only slashed its earnings outlook, but announced it would fire a record 10,000.
Moments ago, CAT reported its latest monthly retail sales and they were even worse than last month: in the month of September there was not a single region that posted either a increase of an unchanged print. This was the first month in all of 2015 in which every region posted a drop.
Putting CAT's result in context, the Great Financial Crisis resulted in 19 consecutive months of sales declines. We are currently at 34 months and showing no signs of any pick up.
As such, based on CAT's ongoing shockingly bad retail sales we wonder if it is no longer merely a global recession: perhaps that time has come to call it what it really is - a global industrial (at first) depression, which has so far been hidden from plain view thanks to $13 trillion in central bank liquidity, whose marginal impact is evaporating by the day and a Chinese credit machine which recently hit a brick wall.
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"AAaauugh, Global Depression!"
"AAaauugh, Global Depression!"
molon labe....
The Chinese could never copy the designs of our American-made bulldozers and make cheaper copies that would compete with Caterpillar.
And, as always, I am glad none of this can affect the price of my stawks.
if anything, it should make them go up, right? bad news is good news. Clearly this means we are in need of moar central bank intervention. Bullish....
Nope, this is nothing but propaganda. Everything is AwEsOMe!
Fuckin' weather.
xcmg, perhaps the most successful chinese heavy equipment manufacturer, has seen its stock go from above 8 in 2011 to about 4 now.
@NoDebt
I appreciate the idea of CAT being one of many guages of the actual industrial slowdown as opposed to cooked numbers and the markit as it is presented, but can it also be attributed to the fact that CAT is not the bellweather that it has been in the past? You have hundreds of foreign (Asian) industrial and commercial companies whose very purpose is to produce what CAT produces and for cheaper prices. These companies have come online in the mining and mega-machine manufacturing sectors much in the last decade. Could not one also attribute CAT's decline to increased competition from cheaper industrial/commercial manufacturers? If you look at the sales by region, N.A. seems to also be the last region to get the memo.
You say they cannot copy CAT's designs, I believe copying is what they are best at, and if they can make it half the quality for half the cost, then what is the advantage of making the highest quality? Re: this, I would never say never.
He forgot the /sarc tag
Doh, I'm usually pretty good at spotting that. Well, his statement makes much more sense then.
so no channel stuffing of CATs and zero interest buy one, get one free deals? C'mon, let's get creative. There's gotta be a way to tax-payer subsize puting a CAT in every fucking yard in America. It's our civil right, damnit, and we can't be denied!!!
*disclosure: I'd really love to have a CAT D11 Dozer preaze ;-)
say that again, i've got some immeadiate uses right now...stumps, home pad, ect ect...
The Fed would argue they already had their bubble, 2001-07, so stop bitching and wait your turn.
Guess what: CAT data is right ! Not only that, but I dare you to show me a company producing real stuff (preferably, useful too) that is not in trouble, worldwide. Draw your own conclusions...
I dont need a D11.
A nice sized skid steer will do.
C'mon CAT.
Make this eCONomy thrive.
So...Cat is showing 34 months of flat sales, what about Komatsu, Kobelco, Hitachi, Liebherr, etc.? If all of 'em are flat and/or declining, then we're on to something.
Good point.
Article lacks empirical evidence/comparison to be taken serious.
Too bad.
Kubota?
Real stuff and useful. Hint: Colorado, soon Canada. UN pushing.
I wonder if CAT still loves being used as a tool of Der Emperor Barry's?
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/espn-lays-off-300-people-as-sub...
Who in the world would pay for that stuff anyway?
What are the chances that this will be "The Lead" story on Sportscenter?
ZSPN
Soylent for the sheeple.
I hope everyone grabbed one of those $45 ESPN ties before they're all sold out....they're so cool!
NOT!
E........EXTRA S........STUPID P.........PEOPLES N..........NETWORK
OH YA!!!!
Barry's speech hyping the Great Recovery from Cat HQ was their kiss of death.
Hey Lost, leggo my labe,,,
I agree sunaj, any meaningful comparison would have to show inroads made by Cat's competitors. I see a lot of big equipment with weird names on it...
In saying that though, I think we are well into the early stages of a global socio-economic collapse and the ardent deniers are going to have a very tough time going forward.
Buckle up kiddos, the ride is beginning,
;-D
Caterpillar BOGO event of the Century!
Buy ONE giant CAT and get the Second one FREE!
It's so Robust!
" Yes we can! "
Coming to a country near you soon.
CAT Market Share, according to Douche Bank and reported in August, is stable at 12.5%
http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/15/08/5762831/dont...
However Forbes Magazine reported in 2011 that CAT Market Share was in the 32% to 33% range.
CAT has lost an amazing 60% of its Market Share IN FOUR YEARS??? Now I am certain that it hurt their Bottom Line...and you nailed it that it is PARTLY DUE to competition. (It may be MOSTLY...I do NOT know.)
But how much of it is due to a recession in Global Economic Activity?
In order to do any in depth analysis, due to the loss of the Bellweather status that CAT once had, a deeper exploration and in depth analysis of revenues of the competitors is demanded.
Unfortunately the article lacks this exploration and in depth analysis.
Look at Oil Consumption and Industrial Power Consumption if you want to be convinced that we are in an industrial deep depression.
We are.
2 years back, CAT was actually buying the chinese made stuff to reverse engineer some of the features that the chinese had built.
howver previous to that the chinese were buying CATs stuff to reverse engineer it.
There are a few things at work here. A good portion of Caterpillar equipment is made in China (all the bulldozers, D6 and smaller, for example). The larger equipment is made here. Caterpillar only uses virgin metal in all it's domestic machinery, and every nut and bolt is a "Grade 10". That does make it expensive. Another issue is that Renting is very popular. Most companies that have bid jobs that will only last a few years choose to rent the machinery. Renting is extremely popular, especially here in the Northeast when the weather doesn't always cooperate. Overall Construction is also, so the need for machinery follows suit. A lot of negative things happening at once.
http://www.rentatire.com/
Komatsu is not CAT but it's results smell like Horse exhaust. No green shoots just brown shats
What we need is moar Hope & Change!
90% of Los Estados Unidos is already in a depression so it's no surprise CAT reflects reality. It's gonna be sad this Christmas wathcing people pick their their purses for nickels and pennies and dimes to pay for their kids presents, if not their Cheerieos
Sad stuff.
No, no intervention, not that again!
Seriously, the only intervention we need is in the cryptocurrency markets. We need a Zero Hedge Coin. First iteration is in the works, help by voting at http://zhc0.com
Nothing better to do during a depression than leave the real markets alone and play on the toy crypto markets. Let's get into it!
I think if you keep pimping this idea on Zero Hedge as a cryptocurrency, I am gonna have to track you down, and bitch slap you into the middle of next week for being a pimp ass bankster schill bitcoin wannabe rat bastard motherfucker. IF ZERO HEDGE HAD A FUCKING CURRENCY OF IT'S OWN, IT WOULD BE MINTED IN INCORRUPTABLE NON HYPOTHECATED NON DERIVATIVE NON MARGIN ABLE SILVER OR GOLD. Get your shit together, and change your direction while you still have an ass to kick. Jesus, fucking kids these days. You all think technology is a miracle. All it is is electrons that can be made to go poof any fucking minute now. if i blew up your phone right now, you would look like a cow at the slaughterhouse just at the moment the bolt gun goes off - " How could you do this to me ? What'll I do now ? " Improvise. Adapt. Overcome. Triumph over adversity. And, mint a fucking coin out of noble metals, or I will make you look like a one legged man at a nut kicking contest.
Bulldozers are clearly lasting longer do to many 'hedonistic' improvements.
Ergo, the CPI will be revised down since bulldozers are probably more heavily weighted than food and fuel when determining COLAs and what-not.
Think of the moneys CAT saved by firing 10 Kilopeople! Bullish for the bottom line, and stuff!
Nothing more bullish than 300 million unemployed Chinese. Revolution bitchez!
Minister?
President Xi, we are in a global depression.
This is not good. Too many laid off comrades equals instability and risks Party Rule. General, you have a comment?
Yes, Mr President. I think Comrade Putin may need help in Syria against the alciaduh head-choppers. Perhaps we could draft 200 million guys and throw in with Assad.
I'll take it into consideration. That will certainly keep our young men busy, General.
Increased quality/price competition abroad (part of the wanning hegemony thing).
Equipment Rentals increased in slow times.
Miners are finding themselves in a hole and have stopped digging.
Is this a recession, a depression or are we on a downward slope to our new reality?
Sure hope the Fed is not on a fiat spending spree trying to save something that no longer exist?
It would make more sense if they'ed overlaid the top three competitor's sales on the same chart. Oh... MayBe not as sensational?
With all this supply all that magical Keynesian demand will show up any time now... "Paging Dr. Krugman, your patient is flat-lining".....
They obviously didn't do enough to stimulate the economy. More intervention is needed.
Ever heard of Shantui? Google it.
Before we declare a world-wide depression based on CAT's badly-played hand, let's look at these companies that make heavy equipment. They are working 24/7/265 in China, and haven't whined about tough times.
Komatsu, Hyundai, Hitachi, Daewoo/Doosan, Sany, , Zoomlion, Longking, XCMG, LiuGong, Sumitomo, Volvo, Shantui, Chery, Putzmeister, and Schwing.
That was satire, my friend. You made my point for me perfectly.
If you are European, I can understand your confusion. My satire never works on Europeans. I have no idea why, but Europeans always think I'm being serious. Americans usually get it right away.
I guess that's because most Americans get the - for them possibly glaring - hint from your use of "stawks", while we Europeans etc., particularly if not raised speaking English, can't differentiate that easily if you truly don't know how words are spelled or not
and this without getting into the little matter of how few non-Americans even bother knowing anything about the "stawk-market", since the 401(k) thing is very, very American
like the amazing 30-year state/fed backed mortgage loan, or cheap gasoline, the US is full of truly (no kidding) exceptional things, viewed from outside
But from the inside it's all evil white privilege and must be eradicated. If we knew what we were doing, we wouldn't be doing this.....
Englishp-speaking Russians will get it right away too, I suspect.
I think the key is that growing up with doublespeak means satire is an effective means of communicating since normal language is so corrupted by the government/media. Not that they don't have it in Europe but I don't think it's quite a pervasive and they seem to have a fair number of politicians a that are members of smaller parties that speak truth to power so the satire-spidey-sense isn't nearly so developed.
"Schwing"??? Did you put that in there just to see if we were paying attention?
He got me with Putzmeister.
http://www.putzmeister.com/enu/index.htm
German companies that make concrete pumps. China bought one or both of them. China used more concrete in the past 3 years than America did in the last century.
They make concrete pumps and other equipment. For real.
Yeah. I wonder how the german word for clean (v) or plaster (n), got so badly warped in the english language. I don´t think "putzfrau" would be translated correctly if I asked my fellow Long Islanders to guess. Might end up creating a new word for the Urban Dictionary though!
two words: Wayne's world.
Schwing? Is that the brand popularized by the movie Waynes World?
oh don't let me forget the /sarc tag. Also I find it surprising they get
100 days off in China.
NoDebt
What you saying is true with the larger Cat equipment, but a lot of the smaller stuff with "Cat" painted on it, is not Cat at all.
And Cat sells "Cat Classic" parts- all made in China.
K
China may be the least of their worries. Based on what I've seen driving around town, CAT may lead in bulldozers, but Komatsu and Hitachi have eaten their lunch where excavators are concerned.
Chinese cars are just plain junk, the transmissions and other major components go out in less than 20,000 kms, they are horrible, cheap but absolutely POS. I used them overseas and as the Arabs say, cheap is expensive (raqees ghali). That is why we have yet to see Chinese cars in the US. I would never fly in a chinese airplane nor a russian one either. They fall out of the sky way too much for my taste.
God bless, respectfully, American Warrior.
Global Depression, well, I don't know...but...
What I will say is that CATs global MONOPOLY is eroding.
Illinois taxes are crushing them also..past time to get out of that state.
CAT products are also WAY TO DURABLE...they need to take a page out of China's book and build stuff that self destructs ASAP once any warranty expires. There's little money in building things, but TONS-O-MONEY in repairing the, crappy, things you build.
FireBrander
You must be a WallyMart shopper.
Cat has built the business around stuff that runs (uptime) and lasts (return on investment).
And if you ever owned Cat, and it is apparent you are clueless on the topic, you would know Cat makes out handsomely selling parts.
K
Yes FB,and if that CAT repair truck has to be called,your ass is out a ton of cash....
Does the double dutch sandwich, or Dirty Sanchez hot Lunch (whatever the tax structure is called) not work anymore?
No DV from me but that page came from Detroit car manufacturers' play book.
That rise from 2010-2012 WAS the bounce. Now it is settling down on the pavement, with a twitch here or there.
If CAT were to become some sort of financial products company, they would be fine.
But, if you actually depend on making real stuff that people buy and use to make real things, you might as well lay down your king. It's over.
I do think that things will pick up after Mr. Yellen starts raising rates to historical norms.
Ahhahahhahahahhaha, sometimes I just need to laugh.
pods
Laughing maniacally like the Joker doesn't really reduce stress levels, though. It does, however, increase the 'effectiveness' of SSRI's.
pods
Cat does well financing Cat products. Look it up.
K
Woolly caterpillars can predict the weather, so it stands mechanical caterpillars can predict the economy!
Economics=Art Of Deception Vs. Demographics=Simple (Yet Ugly) Reality
http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/10/economicsart-of-deception-vs_20.html
The linked article explains why Cat's sales have declined and why there is no end in sight to the decline...chart after chart mirrroring Cat's declining sales
Good, Maybe I can get a good deal on a new Cat in houston where the economy is booming, dont know why but its booming here. Maybe because there are fewer regulations on starting a business. Please dont tell anyone.
How is Sulu doing, Bones?
He needs moar QE, Jim.
Doctor, it would appear each injection is having less effect
Stick to science, Spock, let me practice my voodoo!
with Glencore's fast demise, anything they use goes down with it.
They're a large part of machine building businesses, tools, and even the businesses that work with the metal are going down.
Metal melters are down bigtime! Look at Mittal!
And for the machine builders, mining but also the oil sector and China are the biggest customers.
And let it just be that those are all the biggest losers this year.
There's still a lot of companies that are linked to it but haven't crashed yet because of M&A's to prop up their numbers but that may also end now that liquidity is dying.
So unless QE4 is started for the reserve currency, a lot of sectors will die.
And those happen to be the corner stones of our "industry" so it just means QE4 is really just arround the corner.
Yeah talk about metal took a load of steel scrap to the yard the other day and got .03 for it last year summer it was bringing .09 a 2/3 drop in price just screams recovery
Sudden Debt
This all ends at the door of the Fed. Without dirt cheap money, commodities wouldn't have gone crazy. And companies like Cat who can't turn the tap on and off in an instant cannot manage their business.
K
Yeah, CAT revenue exploded up to 2008 and peaked at about $51 bil, it crashed from there to low 30s and bounced back to over $65 bil, and has steadily eroded to what looks like about $51 bil this year. It hasn't gone really anywhere in the last 7 years (the average since 2008 is the same as 2008 at about $51 bil).
CAT hasn't even begun to crash yet.
As usual ZH doomers don't see the 7 years of green shoots. CAT just has to dig them out from trillions of tons of fiat.
If not for fake economic statistics since the crash of 2008, the US never recovered.
Inflation has been understated by 5% to 8% every year which means real growth has been overstated by 5% to 8%.
Official inflation in 2014 was 0.8% and the Chapwood Index showed inflation of 9.7% - 1212% higher than the official rate.
What it really is?
"The Dark Ages 2.0"
The sequel of Age of Empires?
Halfe - Life3 ?
nope. Sid Meier's "Civilization", I don't know which number is currently the newest. though there is a Swedish producer that does a terrific new engine, I'm told by my young crowd
the only game in town, since ever, in every sense. the time between 1990 and 2015 was just a kind of... "special situation", like 1816-1840
all the rest is... fantasy. of the dark kind, sure, but always assuming stuff that is neither here nor there
If you're really interested in intelligent strategy games that don't get boring after 2 completed campaigns, look no further than Europa Universalis. Introduce it to your young crowd, they will be thankful.
________________________
Since you also mentioned Sweden in your post, word on the streets here is that the number of shipping containers arriving at and departing from the Port of Gothenburg has dropped some 30-35% in the past month. Everything.Is.Awesome.
Europa Universalis is exactly what the gang loves. I have to admit they might have a point, have to look a bit into it. interesting stat, thanks
<< Official inflation in 2014 was 0.8% and the Chapwood Index showed inflation of 9.7% - 1212% higher than the official rate. >>
And the CPI, therefore the COLA, was 0.0%.
That's why many seniors are starving to death in the wealthiest country in the world; it's all part of Barry's Legacy.
As long as we all don't become Stalkers ..
Not all of us can become CPs undercover ..
TRANSITORY, dumb ass FED.
No...they are dumbasses permanently.
Moar stock-buybacks....
Shorten unemployen insurance from 26 weeks to 2 weeks so more people drop off faster and are no longer considered unemployed.
Get the unemployment rate under 1%.
It's all about perception, not reality.
Or just eliminate UI completely given our extremely prosperous and "recovered" state. UI is an outdated concept in a world entitled to not need to work anyway.
"in a world entitled"
Speaking of entitlement...can someone please explain to me why, if a person VOLUNTEERS to join the military in a time of NO OFFICIALLY DECLARED REAL WAR, and is compensated for their time while VOLUNTEERING, that we owe that person anything once they leave the service?
YOU knew the risks, YOU volunteered, YOU were compensated, and now I owe you "Free Health Services for Life"?
I believe it is seen as an inducement for plebes to VOLUNTEER. We could take the stance that if you volunteer for military service, rather than giving life long
healthcare we'll kick you in the nuts. The only problem is after a while we wouldn't have many VOLUNTEERS, then (God forbid!) we might have to draft your kids.
VA Care is TRUE SOCIALIZED MEDICINE....Government OWNS AND OPERATES THE ENTIRE SHOW...where is the Rights' call for "REPEAL THE VA!"?
Like he said, if they stopped the VA, people above room temp IQ would not willfully sign up, hence the Right would not be able to stomp around the world wasting $$ and killing brown people as nobody would be able to lead the cannon fodder.
pods
My Dad fought in Vietnam, (NOT AN OFFICIALLY DECLARED WAR), and now goes to the VA for medical care. He's worked his whole life, paid his taxes and his dues,
as have I. I figure he is as entitled to his VA benefits, as much or more so, than Haliburton is to their military contracts; both of which I help pay for. If we are
gonna call for an end to social programs, then lets be consistent and roll them all back, not just the ones that help the little people.
let's pay for you dad to go to a local hospital and get care there through a VA benefits program. too much waste and inefficiency in the current system.
The military itself is full on socialism, that should be rolled back also.
And this is another argument for bringing back the draft.
Draftees tend to do their 2 years and get out, whereas many more of the mercenary army comes in and stays until they get their 20 years and can retire, with a nice paycheck for life, plus healthcare, plus commissary & PX privileges (which are not as great as they once were). My Father retired in 1967 at 44 & died in 2007. My Mother, 90, still gets a survivors benefit check for about $2K every month, plus medical. There are also nursing home benefits when the time comes. He was a combat arms vet of both WW2 & Korea, and was a helluva soldier-Command Sgt Maj. - so he earned it. I did my time, too, but no way I could put up with it for 20years. Even 45 years ago, the Military was changing into something too politically correct from where is had been.
So, the cost of maintaining a military is huge and long lasting, especially when so many are staying in to retirement. Throw in all the returning vets today who have serious health issues, and the long term costs are going to be humongous. 14 years of mis-adventures in the ME and still counting the casualties.
If the draft were re-instated, there would be no frivolous, optional wars because the draftees would go ballistic. Afghanistan, yes, but over in 6 months or less. Iraq, are f**king kidding me! Syria? you must be insane! Vote these assholes out!
It's all about having skin in the game.
Fuck the draft. Bring back the militias. And I don't mean the national guard either.
You nailed it. Also forced conscription of chicken hawks and their progeny would put a hurried damper on the war
for profit machine, but a pony that shits ice cream and gold would be as likely.
What are you saying? CAT got your tongue?
Well this is cetainly good news that zirp will continue and a sub prime car loan for all to keep the farce going.
I have never seen so many new pick up trucks on the road where I live. Seems huge numbers are biting on ostensibly cheap debt.
Yesterday, I had a car pass me, on an exit ramp with a line of cars and a red light just ahead, and the female driver looked 20 tops...driving a newish Lexus SUV..that's a ~40k vehicle!
Whether it was hers or not, I don't know, but at 20, I was driving a 10 year old Honda that I bought with money I earned even though my "Mommy and Daddy" could have easily bought me the car "I deserved"!
Local media did a "parking shortage problem" story at a High School in a upper middle class district. Set the camera up at the exit to shoot some fill footage...car after was nearly BRAND NEW with sub 18 drivers in all of them!....Lexus, Toyota's, Jeeps, VW's (very popular with the HS crowd) all pouring out of the lot...holy shit, just in that 10 second clip I watched $150,000 in cars roll by..."Mommy and Daddy" are fucking crazy!
My wife is a doctor.
My salary is similar to hers.
I drive an 18-year-old Jeep Cherokee (XJ...not 'grand')...that I will keep repairing until I die or can't do the work.
The Mrs. drives a 12-year-old cadillac...that I will agree to replace only when the Mrs has fully appreciated the logic of making the payments AND THEN buying the car.
I doubt a single one of those cars on the TV's high-school-parking story was bought for cash.
What are those parents teaching their kids about money and credit????
To live in the system....and to do whatever the government 'asks' of them to get one more hit.
They are credit junkies and it is transferrign to their offspring. The only cure is a system reboot and a return to sanity.
No Way we are in a depression. Ferrari going public and Jack Ma IPO worth qtr of a trillion.
CAT has lots of Chinese competition now. They are no longer the be all and end all of industrial equipment.
It's hard to fake some things.
CAT has already built enough earth movers to last the world forever.
The economy ate four years worth of rations in one. Now's the time to tighten belts and listen to stomachs growl a plaintiff "moooooaaarrr".
I'd be interested to see sales for simialr global comapnies like JCB and NewHolland. The only people who buy CAT anymore are those who are brand loyal (same goes for John Deere). I can only speak to general construction equipment and farming, but others are leading the way in technology. CAT is a dinasaur.
Here's a list of 25 CAT peers
http://financials.morningstar.com/competitors/industry-peer.action?t=CAT
I have not been keeping up with CAT and their management, but if like most large American corps today, my gues is they have been eating their seed corn instead of investing in innovation, technology, plants, and people.
Feel free to correct me if wrong.
...
LMFAO!!!! MOAR GRAIT NEWWWZ!!!!
So that's why my portfolio has gone down. That and the gold miners. Miners not mining and buying cat.
Could it be that everyone that wants a big tractor or whatever, has already bought one?
Could also be that there are TONS of used equipment for sale.
Banks are sitting on plenty of repossessed equipment...waiting for prices to "recover" so they can sell at a profit instead of a loss...
Of course, on the banks books, the "asset" is held at "full value".
CAT is really screwed here because should demand pick up, it will consume the used equipment first...and there is a LOT of used equipment to soak up.
From here out, profits will have to come from selling parts...for machinery "built to last" that is seeing little use...yikes.
Global Debt overhang means that there's no longer enough to cover both debt service and capital investment.
Eventually there won't be enough for both debt service and ongoing operations... actually already, hence the layoffs.
Essentially, our monetary system systematically redistributes wealth in a compounding manner from any/all real production to those closest to the monetary spigot.
Can you live without real production? Can you eat Electronic Federal Reserve Notes? Can you wear them? Will they shelter you from the weather?
If not, you must design and implement a new monetary and banking system.
Each day we continue the current one more deeply damages the real production on which human survival depends.
"from any/all real production to those closest to the monetary spigot."
DC, the Fed, Wall Street and the banks.
During the 2009 recession DC never saw it. It was better then because of the lobbyist spending at the fine restaurants and strip clubs.
I suppose you COULD technically wear them. Accessorizing is a breeze with a few Hamiltons.
So, from that graph; 10% drop each month
So Sales 34 months ago =100
Sales now = 0.9x0.9x0.9x0.9x0.9 .....x0.9x0.9 x100 = 2.5 (Ok 0.934 )
No way, what did I do wrong?
Or is that, they are down 10% and stayed down 10%?
yes. Funny number crunching. Is this for example 10% decline from Year over year? If month over month then 100, then 90 then 81 then 74, then 67, then 61, then 55, etc. Pretty soon has evaporated into a singularity.
Yeah, I take it as year over year change. So from the current month, to a year ago.
It's a consistant y/y of 10% covering approximately 36 months or 3 years so. 1*.9*.9 = 81% of production from 3 years ago. A drop of approximately 20%. I could be wrong as well.
Edit: Hubbs beat me to it.
I too am bewildered by the chart. If sales are consistently dropping why are the bars flat? Channel stuffing? number fudging? methinks sum ting wong!
Well if it YoY then that is 3 years @90% which is 0.72 which is catastrophic anyway.
Probably because no chart produced in the last 25 years is real.
I saw that too. The chart is pretty, but makes no sense.
BULLISH
nothing can stop dr. yellenstein's monster.
We all know that real numbers do not matter. Remember, we are still in a recovery says Obama and company! We all know they always tell the truth!
Take the Collapse Personality Profile Test today!!
Time for a Keynsian Progrom.
Where do we even fucking begin?
CAT (Craterpiller) isnt the largest maker of earth moving machines and the competition from Europe's Liebherr and the several Chinese companies have just caught up to old CAT along with this strong dollar policy of the fed and extended downturn in economic conditions. Perhaps they will need their products in Syria when they basically have to level the place and start over----probably at our expense
That gives me an idea! Buy big boys with Bernanke bucks, drop dozers in desert.
Cat IS STILL by far the largest heavy equipment manufacturer. Liebherr, Sany and XCMG (both chinese) are WAY down the list. Also, XCMG is in a joint venture with Cat.
Liebherr is above the Chinese, yet still has only 1/4 the sales of Cat. You also forgot to mention Hitachi, Komatsu, Terex, Volvo and John Deere, all of which are above the Chinese in sales. Liebherr is just above John Deere.
'
'
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My thoughts exactly.
Let's see what the other large equipment manufacturers are doing in sales.
IBM used to to be the bellweather stock. Now? I hear there are a lot of other computer-makers out there now.
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V-V
The turning point for IBM was when it introduced the Personal Computer only making about USD6 per box.
It paved the way for a revolution in micro-computing which affected mainframe sales where IBM used to make big profits.
Micro-technology didn't require vast amounts of R&D investment, so the competition increased dramatically and diluted IBM's market share and profits since it couldn't compete with low-cost competitors.
A lot of Cat's big dollar purchaces goes to mining. Their equipment lasts 10 to 20 years. The mining and construction markets are flat to negative for new investment, so goes new equipment sales.
I already see a lot of mining and construction companies rebuilding equipment rather than buying new, or buying up used equipment from other failed companies. Just to stretch a few more years of life out of their equipment.
What will happen, is soon as there's a bit of a recovery, Cat's sales will soar because exsiting owners will have competely worn out their existing equipment and want new toys.
This guy has to be the biggest perma bull out there: http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com/
Listening to the MSM analysis as to why Tesla and Ferrari have no top because they are selling luxury items and not transportation, Caterpillar simply needs to make the real rich want to own a Cat. Maybe they can market to rich real estate flippers and have a commercial of one of thos a-holes driving a Cat over some property they just bought at a foreclosure auction.
I heard the same today. I wondered what those Ferrari engineers were thinking when they heard they were selling a luxury "brand" and not cars. Sure, only a rather wealthy person can afford one currently but that will last only so long. Wall Street is about to destroy another "brand" I guess. Should be fun to watch.
Want to destroy what youi built? Let the tribe get ahold of it.
Start building ghost cities like China attracting real estate money like flies on crap.
Perhaps I have been reading ZH for too long and it has turned me into a morbid cynic. A few of my drinking partners think I'm too much of a gloom merchant so I've mostly stopped being a preachy asshole and instead talk about other more normal shit like football and titties. I could list all of the things that to my mind are seriously threatening the global economy from disappearing jobs, to shithead bankers, to impending wars and refugees, and of course the biggest threat of all: global warming (sarc). But if I try to spin that logic around, what exactly are the bright spots in the economy? I tried to find one but I'm coming up blank. What am I missing?
congrats! being the gloom merchant is socially not rewarding. there are blogs for that
I have a bright spot for you: the various super-sized subsidies ailing the global economy are faltering. subsidies work... until they don't. usually way before the responsible parties stop throwing money at the problem... then...
oh... sorry, you wanted something auctionable, preferrably in the stock market? or perhaps even something to short? nope, there is nothing
The messenger always gets shot.
It has always been thus.
Bright spots:
1. Everyone I work with is employed.
2. 401k doing quite well since the crash
3. Oil prices low so gasoline is affordable
I could go on.
There is in fact a LOT of positive to be found, if you look for better practical solutions for your personal life:
- Rick Simpson Oil: cures cancer + diabetes + nearly everything else (home made too!)
- liposomal vitamin C: home-made stuff that makes people feel 10-20 years younger, full of energy
- cold showers: save money and feel great
- julstro.com: muscle release that cures and solves most sports injuries and acute pain
- sfhelp.org: absolutely amazing free psychological info on how to become far more happy and efficient at life!
- oil pulling: the best mouth wash is simply vegetable oil
- blotting toothbrushes: the capillary tubes of the special (but super cheap) toothbrush clean your teeth better than anything I've seen. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BhuQFcE0u0
- intermittent fasting: find out why you should fast (and gain the huge advantages in mental clarity, endurance, and well being)
(and plenty more!)
... The rest are stumped about what to do, whereas I keep makin' my life better!
+ 1 for intermittent fasting. i'd also add paleo-esque diet and high intensity interval training with weights. things all ZHers should be doing on a regular basis. you think this is an intelligent bunch now just wait until everyone has gotten rid of all the shit TPTB have overloaded our systems with. mental clarity doesnt even begin to describe what happens to your brain. i firmly believe one's IQ goes up considerably (probably to where it should have been all along) once one is healthy.