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Citi Expects Imminent Easing From Central Banks Of China, Australia, Japan And Europe
In the past few months, Citi's chief economist Willem "Gold is a 6000 year old bubble" Buiter, has been making increasingly more hyperbolic and grandose predictions about the future, which doesn't make them wrong. First, in August, after the US stock market tanked in the matter of days, he predicted that "Only "Helicopter Money" Can Save The World Now" the reason for which being that just a few days later, Citi made a "global recession in 2016" its base case scenario.
Then today, Buiter released another forecast, where while backtracking somewhat on his global recession call, he does cut Citi's global economic growth forecast for 2016 for the fifth consecutive month, now expecting just 2.8% growth, down from 2.9% a month ago. Buiters said that "if we adjust for the probable mis-measurement of China’s GDP growth in official data, “true” global growth is probably around 2¼% this year and also is likely to be below 2½% in 2016 (i.e. well below the 3% long-run norm). EM growth on this measurement-adjusted basis probably is about 2½% YoY this year, the lowest since the late 1990s. Even after these downgrades, risks to our global forecasts probably lie to the downside."
Some more details:
The global economy is being hit by the third major disinflationary wave of the past ten years, with the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-09 and the Euro Area crisis of 2011-12 now followed by a major and widespread EM slowdown. We have been gloomy on China’s growth prospects for a while, and remain so even with the apparent resilience in the official data. With the twin supports from China’s credit boom and the commodity-related investment boom fading, YoY growth of GDP for EM ex-China is now below 2% YoY.
So why a far more muted stance on what a month ago was a mega bearish "base case" for a global recession in 2016? Simple: more central bank interventions to kick the can, and buy a few more months of time. Much moar.
With disinflationary global conditions and sluggish pay growth, most advanced economies are likely to remain locked into low-flation, and we expect headline and core inflation rates will continue to run below target and below central bank forecasts next year. Against this backdrop, we expect further near-term easing from the PBOC, RBA, BOJ and ECB and forecast only very gradual and delayed tightening by the Fed (starting around March 2016) and BoE (starting around end- 2016).
In other words, no rate hike from Yellen ever (forget March 2016 - the Fed will never hike 6 months before a presidential election risking unelashing an economic tailspin), and alongside that, one can bury any hope fo a US or global recovery, and instead expect much more of the same, as the central banks of China, Australia, Japan and Europe all line up with even more monetary stimulus in the coming days.
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All that pressure has to go somewhere or you get a blowout
The bigger they are... The further we get into this bubble the less tolerance there is for any red days. They fear any red could spark it.
Did the infamous Economist magazine cover from early this year forecast a Fed rate hike and the announcement of a gold-backed Yuan next week? -
Globalist Agenda Watch 2015: Updates 78-79 – The one-two punch that will knock down the dollar & Will the big shock be in two weeks or in March? (+ a P.S.)They keep having to reach further and further up theirn ass to find not quite so bad numbers and soon they'll be tickling their tonsils. None of that money has helped the economy, just the bonus checks of the 'special' people, but time is running out.....
Time alredy ran out out on some of these special poeple in Iceland. I have not heard a word about it in any of the mainstream media.
http://usuncut.com/world/iceland-sentences-26-bankers-to-a-combined-74-y...
World
Iceland sentences 26 bankers to a combined 74 years in prison"No one wins a discount War"
Why do all these fuckers have gargantuan melons?
http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=so+i+married+an+axe+murderer+head&FORM=VIRE1#view=detail&mid=7CEE99068FB286D02A9E7CEE99068FB286D02A9E
Hey, who's paying for all of this, anyway?
Larger storage space for shit?
moron
further "easing" will only exacerbate disinflation/deflationary forces.
"Citi DEMANDS Imminent Easing From Central Banks Of China, Australia, Japan And Europe"
Fixed.
What to you expect from Willem "Butt" Buiter?
As regards NIRP, it seems they've thrown in the towel too. But they still try playing QE shell games hoping for yet another mass stupefying. Easing makes no sense as long as all the paper is frozen in excess reserves or tunnelled to stocks and indexes. Just a dumb rhetoric.
A real thing happens when we see provisions forcing the new paper to flow into economy. This could happen soon after inevitable failure of said 'easing'.
Let's have the qe supernova and be done with it already
"The U.S eCONomy continues to grow at an above potential pace"
I guess negative growth is the new above potential. Maybe if these motherfuckers ever tried telling the truth just one time they might be taken seriously.
NRF forecasts holiday retail to be +3.7% over 2014 ... well above 10 yr average of +2.5%.
Expect more "unexpectedly" from economists.
Give me the "under" ... well "under"
After a couple weeks of promising the best shopping season ever, they'll be managing that number downward quietly over the course of the season.
I don't see it happeniing from my level. We're doing well and we have cut the Christmas budget in half. Same with relatives, friends, neighbors....just not a lot of cash around.
Saw Christmas displays in late September. Pushing early. Also there are a lot of 0 down and 12 months to pay interest free deals. Then there are expanded lay-away programs being peddled. Going to be some great deals to clear inventory.
This holiday season will be the last straw wake-up call. Fuck, going to be a lot of misery from mid-December on.
What's the ticker symbol for Blockchain? I'll go all in.
The only good thing of Buiter is that he is Dutch, which is an insult to The Netherlands.
There are only two things I can't stand in this world: people who are intolerant of other people's cultures..., and the Dutch!
https://youtu.be/QJ882QYzr-M
you want inflation....break up the criminal banks!
We're one step away from Communist-eque declarations that 'Dear Leader' has made the economy better than it ever was before, a chicken in every pot, a cadillac in every driveway, even as people are reduced to rags and bicycles.
Will people continue to believe the press releases even as their eyes tell them the opposite?
Hard to say.
With theoretical things I would say, "yes" because it is all one rationalization anyway.
But the buck tends to stop with the pocket book.
Because you can't eat imaginary food, wear imaginary clothing, or seek shelter in imaginary housing.
So, while people may go with propaganda for a while... by its very nature it will eventually become trite and disbelieved for the simple reason of who pronounced it.
and forecast only very gradual and delayed tightening by the Fed
No believes that fuckin lie anymore ass whole,
Feds fuckn dead, pass it around.
"Citi Expects Imminent Easing"
Always. QE until a currency crisis.
First country to blow up their currency gets a free market.
Thing this this dickhead gets paid big money to write this brainless bullshit.
Why is it so hard for these assclown geniuses to figure out that the only reason GDP goes up is because there is more money in circulation. Debt in US terms in 1980 1 trillion dollars. Market cap in 1980 in US stocks 1 trillion dollars. Debt in US in 2015 18-19 trillion dollars. Market cap of all US stocks 22 trillion dollars.
Its called wealth transfer or moving just like we did in the 90's with Social security. Its almost comical to me that these clowns pretend to be scientists when it comes to transferring fiat created from nothing from one side of the ledger to the other.
Its not the creation of fiat that creates growth its circulation. The FED can create trillions of fiat out of thin air but if its not circulating its worthless. By creating worthless fiat, or hoarding it with buybacks and 80 million dollar condos in NY city, 20 million dollar 1600 sf houses in LA and San Francisco, it serves no purpose. It also make what little the average Joe has diluted.
Its simple math if 10 trillion dollars only reaches .01% of the population then 99.9% lose.
OK that means we know how to fix it then, simply multiply all last LTRO + QE1..~ by approimately 100 and we're there. I can feel the transfer now...
Game Over or The Case For The Next QE and NIRP http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=292485.0
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco published a working paper this month, "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest Redux," in which it introduced the potential for using both negative short-end rates coupled with another round of quantitative easing (QE) focused at the long end, as a response to the next recession.
http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2015-16.pdf
Thomas Laubach
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
and
John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
October 14, 2015
Abstract
Persistently low real interest rates have prompted the question whether low interest rates are here to stay. This essay assesses the empirical evidence regarding the natural rate of interest in the United States using the Laubach-Williams model. Since the start of the Great Recession, the estimated natural rate of interest fell sharply and shows no sign of recovering. These results are robust to alternative model specifications. If the natural rate remains low, future episodes of hitting the zero lower bound are likely to be frequent and long-lasting. In addition, uncertainty about the natural rate argues for policy approaches that are more robust to mismeasurement of natural rates.
I expect "imminent" easing from FED rather than those listed.
Of course banks will do QE. It's what the MMT textbooks say they should do. People are drowning in debt therefore print money. You don't need to be psychic to predict what bankers will do.