This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Citi Is Now Mocking Its Own Economic Forecasts
We've been harsh on Citi in the past, but we admit there is a certain honor among bailoutees when the "smartest people in the room" not only admit they suck at predicting the future, but poke fun at their own forecasting skills. Case in point: the chart below.
When the Fed's central-planners do the same, and then spontaneously combust, our job will be done.
»
- 15480 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Chart makes no sense to me; I'm not that bright though.
it is called ski slope economic
It seems that the US has finally discovered the magica fomula for perpetual wealth generation...
"Suspended disbelief", is a term that we haven't heard for a good few years now.
That's what Citi's own forecast histogram shows... Forecasters are perpetually optimistic even when Einstein would label them insane.
But when forecasting the economy, it pays better to be optimistic rather than to be right. Am I right?
Optimism >> Truth
= everyone gets rich (OK well maybe not everyone)
Me either. Huh?
it charts their consecutive predictions for GDP growth... "We're gonna grow at 5% guys, invest accordingly!! ...(3 months later) er, make that 4% ...(3 months later) er, make that 3% ....(3 months later) er, make that 2% etc
Chart title: Rainbows and Unicorns, but Always in the Future.
Well, it says that since 2011, every year the market didn't flip over was a gift.
So maybe not tomorrow but it will happen.
And as we're having a downyear every 7 year on average, 2015/2016 fits the trend.
But trends off course are meanth to be broken but if they keep redrawing it, in the end they'll be right.
The lines are composed of points, each of which is a forecast at a certain time.
At the beginning of each year, they put out a forecast. That's the first point for each's years line, and it's way up high on the chart, high growth expected, everything is great!
Each subsequent forecast they revise it lower, and lower, until the last point is the forecast (and reality) of growth for that year. That's the end of each year's line.
If they were good forecasts, the line would go straight across -- predicted growth on Jan 1 of the year would match actual growth on Dec 31, and they'd never revise it downward.
The number of revisions and the consistent slope does indeed show they really suck at forecasting. They're always too optimistic. Even a shitty forecaster would have a low estimate at some point and have to revise up at some point, and they're shitter at forecasting than that.
OK. Thanks. There has got to be a better way to visualize this.
I'm sure you can find an animated toilet flushing GIF on the net somewhere
I would only quibble with the "they suck at forecasting" part.
They may suck at accurate forecasting, but accuracy is not the reason they put out the numbers they do. It is ultimately a sales and marketing gimmick, which they can't be held accountable under any truth-in-advertising laws.
Thanks' Seek, I sort of understand it now. It's amazing these fuckers still have a job!
To what extent would you imagine thier performance grading is based on an assessment of thier honesty?
I agree the charts don't make sense - when were these predictions made for example - and hey Crocodile yer smart big time if yer reading this website regularly.
PEACE
2% for everything everywhere up or down works every year - and the world is clearly fine with it.
Fire the Central bankers everywhere! They are parasites enabling bigger ones that feed off the people and corrupt politics.
don't worry about pandit or corbat, they got plenty.
Can someone hack into the Eccles building speaker system & play the following.
Who knows - it's worth a shot. They all just get up & start walking off and poof .....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRHtC7PDpAU
They'll be much more combustible after curing in the breeze from lampposts for a couple of weeks.
Is it me, or is there no reference point i.e actual global GDP growth
Citi Bank,
Recycle your credit card points to buy more money at the Federal Reserve window dealer.
See how we laugh at you subsidizing FRN credit through bonus points?
Those dopes, they didn't make the chart go out far enough. They forgot to show the hockey stick in 2017.