NASA Warns: 99% Chance Of At Least A 5.0 Quake Hitting LA Within 30 Months

Tyler Durden's picture

If scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena are correct, a moderately-sized earthquake is expected within the next two-and-a-half years.

As CBS LA reports, JPL experts predict a possible 5.0 magnitude quake in Los Angeles, but say it very well could be stronger.

JPL geophysicist Dr. Andrea Donnellan, along with seven other scientists, has been using radar and GPS to measure Southern California’s chances for a sizable earthquake, and has made a sobering hypothesis about another big one.


“When the La Habra earthquake happened, it was relieving some of that stress, and it actually shook some of the upper sediments in the LA basin and moved those a little bit more,” Dr. Donellan said.


However, according to Dr. Donnellan, those strains remain, with enough power to produce an even larger quake in the same epicenter in La Habra.


“There’s enough energy stored to produce about a magnitude 6.1 to 6.3 earthquake,” Dr. Donnellan described.

The new NASA-led analysis of a moderate magnitude 5.1 earthquake that shook Greater Los Angeles in 2014 finds that the earthquake deformed Earth's crust across a broad region encompassing the northern Los Angeles Basin and northern Orange County. As Fox LA adds rather ominously,

 The shallow ground movements observed from this earthquake likely reflect strain accumulated on deeper faults, which remain locked and may be capable of producing future earthquakes.


"The earthquake faults in this region are part of a system of faults," said Donnellan. "They can move together in an earthquake and produce measurable surface deformation, even during moderate magnitude earthquakes. This fault system accommodates the ongoing shortening of Earth's crust in the northern Los Angeles region.




Tectonic motion across the Los Angeles region is distributed on an intricate network of horizontally and vertically moving faults that eventually release accumulated strain in the form of earthquakes, such as the destructive 1994 magnitude-6.7 Northridge earthquake.


Donnellan said a future earthquake to release the accumulated strain on these faults could occur on any one or several of these fault structures, which may not have been mapped at the surface. "Identifying specific fault structures most likely to be responsible for future earthquakes for this system of many active faults is often very difficult," she said.

*  *  *

Seismologists at the US Geological Survey have questioned that probability, suggesting it may in fact be slightly lower, stating: “…the accepted random chance of a (magnitude five) or greater in this area in three years is 85 percent, independent of the analysis in this paper.”

USGS uses different methods from radar and GPS, such as fault maps and models, to develop their results.

Regardless of the discrepancy in percentage, scientists agree that the probability of at least a moderate-sized earthquake in Los Angeles over the next three years is high.

“We all need to be prepared. That’s not new for LA.”

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BullyBearish's picture

Waiting for the Hollyweird fault to open up and swallow...

DontGive's picture

Any fucking time. Any fucking day.

This article is shit.

Pabloallen's picture

Slept through many 4-5 before.


ZerOhead's picture

So the NASA Jet Propulsion lab is now in the business of predicting earthquakes.

I guess they needed a new line of work to get into after their global warming predictions and models failed spectacularly... you know... considering that they can't even make rockets anymore.

Manthong's picture

Tonight’s forecast.. Dark

Mostly dark followed by scattered light in the morning.

ILLILLILLI's picture

We expect a high tide here today...twice.

imaginalis's picture

I live in a liquefaction zone.

Ghost of PartysOver's picture

Come on guys.  Just admit that the quake will be caused by Global Warming.  

Lore's picture

Earthquakes are caused by YOU!  Pay your carbon tax.

Liberal's picture


We must, like, totally have an earthquake tax because it will be a big crisis and we're gonna need the money to pay people who won't go to work!  And we, like, totally need to elect Hillary because Hillary will put a stop to this earthquake nonsense if she's elected, so, like, we totally need to elect her.

Oh, and like, we need you to like totally turn in your guns because they're known to cause earthquakes.

The Blank Stare's picture

Shee-it.....We just ha-da 5.5 in Fukushima yesterday. Big deal

Publicus's picture

The best way to predict the future is to make it happen.

Save_America1st's picture

gee, NASA should ax the musloids about it first...after all, if it tweren't fer them, we'd have no rockit-ships! ;-)

Automatic Choke's picture

Boy, NASA is really going out on a limb here. 

Look it up on Wikipedia (california earthquakes), and you will find that the greater LA area has had seven 5.0 or greater in the last 20 years...most quite a bit larger than 5.0. 

The bozos at NASA nowadays are not the heros who got us to the them all.


Son of Loki's picture

They are noticeably quiet on radiation measurements as is the EPA.

StychoKiller's picture

LOL!  Yer post is appropo for your Moniker!

DeadFred's picture

Silly liberal, guns don't cause earthquakes, people cause earthquakes.

BarkingCat's picture

If you get too close to a herd of land whales you will feel an earthquake

Implied Violins's picture

...and yet, the fracking shall continue. Is there a tax for that too?

hairball48's picture

I loved George Carlin's comedy.

nmewn's picture

"At least the mudslides from the torrential rains are putting out the wildfires!" - Johnny Carson

jwoop66's picture

Maybe the earth will open up and absorb all the extra heat from global warming.  Or maybe if we all paid 90% of our money to the govt and went full retar...uh....socialist... the govt will save us.  Once again.



Thanks big gov...

Oldballplayer's picture

Didnt you see San Andreas?


Implied Violins's picture

Talk about Hollywood doing predictive programming and getting people to visualize that happening...makes one wonder if there is anything to visualizing things causing them to manifest.

StychoKiller's picture

So, yer saying that "The Towering Inferno" didn't happen in "real-life"?

Implied Violins's picture

No, I'm saying first came 'Towering Inferno' (and Fight Club, for God's sake!), THEN with those images engraved in our heads, came THE EVENT.

Want to hear another weird connection to nineoneone? I read an article (can't find the link unfortunately) that had over forty illustrations/pictures of the towers falling that came from magazines, movies, comics, etc. in the years prior to THE EVENT, including an epic screen shot from 'Back to the Future' showing 9-1-1 and another one from The Simpsons. So, there is DEFINITELY some bullshit going on there that is simply unreal.

If you want something to look to for potential FUTURE events, check out the cover of the Economist from this January. Then check back in two weeks and see if this guy was right:

Alvin Fernald's picture

Check out:
- Hidden in Hollywood

- Hollywood Knew

Too many coincidences to call it a broken clock.

sunnyside's picture

I watched "Blonde Nymphomaniac 6" the other day (ok, got through about 10 minutes of it).  Is this another event that Hollywood knows is going to happen soon?

44_shooter's picture

Most idiotic video that shows nothing but clips from movies with 911 or pictures of the twin towers.  

OldPhart's picture

That movie was a laugh.

A big split and the ocean flows all the way to Barstow (Elevation 2,175), filling the canyon to the brim.

I live here (3,000 elevation) because I invested in beach front property...some day.


Refuse-Resist's picture

I believe the movie makers were showing us that the 9/11 pancake collapse and complete disintegration of the towers were bullshit.  In the beginning of the movie, they show buildings collapsing in two ways...

1. Tall buildings falling over like felled trees (more realistic) and... wait for it...

2.  When the ex wife was waiting on top of a building for the hero to rescue her, that building underwent a pancake collapse.  3-4 floors fell down. Then, miraculously (or more like realistically, the mass of the lower floors stopped the pancake collapse), she rode it down about 4 floors when the pancaking stopped due to insufficient energy available (from gravity) to turn the entire structure, including the steel frame, into dust.

The physics displayed on 9/11 were Hollywood. Cartoonish. Not real.  Since when can an aluminum tube slice through structural steel? Since 9/11, that's when. Since when can a huge airliner cut through steel on one bulding, then fit through a 20 ft hole on another, then still another where a plane hits the ground and poof ,there's not a speck of recognizable debris or a body.

Unfortunately most Americans either didn't take physics, or thought science was 'boring' and that 'they would never need to know this shit'.

Our owners are well aware of that ignorance and exploit every single motherfucking day.


Only 'they' doesn't mean what they want you to think it means.

Four chan's picture

im more concerned with the radioactive plume off the coast as the pacific gets more and more radioactive from fukushima.

IndyPat's picture

Take heart...
If this prediction bears out, Diablo Canyon would give you much more plume for your worry than Fukushima.
So there's that...

Payne's picture

99% chance of Rain in the next 30 days in CA.

Wow NASA really go out on a limb with a predictable prediction.

mkkby's picture

a future earthquake to release the accumulated strain on these faults could occur on any one or several of these fault structures

Absolute bullshit.  The strain can be released in small steps, or one big slip.  Of course, they chose to predict the most unlikely worst.

As others have pointed out, these clowns can't even build rockets any more.  But they had to find a way to keep the gov checks rolling in.

Dragon HAwk's picture

Who the hell names a reactor sitting on two fault lines  Diablo... somebody has a real sick sense of humor

Implied Violins's picture

Wanna hear another good one? 'Chernobyl' is Russian for 'Wormwood,' as found in the book of Revelation:

I swear, makes you wonder if psychopaths sit around thinking up names for stuff that they can put right under our noses to see if we ever figure things out before they happen...

nosam's picture
nosam (not verified) Dragon HAwk Oct 21, 2015 9:05 PM

Maybe its not humor. Maybe they are planning something..

darteaus's picture

Who is this Shima that everyone keeps saying Fuku to?

logicalman's picture

I think Shima may Fuku - and the rest of the planet.


LoneStarHog's picture

Janet Yellin or Hillary Clinton falling on their asses would generate a larger quake...Maybe NASA should monitor their travel schedules and issue warnings for the destinations...5.0???...BWHAHAHAHAH!!!!!

OldPhart's picture

I don't think I'd even register a 5.0.

Landers Big Bear Quake, though (, is the first one where my feet actually left the ground.  And the only one I've ever seen in the desert where cracks appeared.  Weird shit, essentially sand and rock, split across the land in a four inch crack across Highway 247 (Old Woman Springs Road) and through the greasewood.  That was awesome.

TheRideNeverEnds's picture

lol indeed


I see that 99% chance of a 5.0 quake in 30 months and raise it 100% chance in 30 months an earthquake is the least of our problems.

A Nanny Moose's picture

But you should be afraid....and you should buy stuff to calm your fears.

Imagine the broken windows that would result!!! Kruggybear prays daily to Lord Keynes, that such an even occurs.

coinhead's picture
coinhead (not verified) NotApplicable Oct 21, 2015 12:32 PM

Fire up the HAARP machine!

Bunghole's picture

I'll hold out and wait for the EPA, DOE and BLS to give their predictions.

NASA ought to stick to space related work and leave earth science up to USGS.