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Saudi Arabia Will Be Broke In 5 Years, IMF Predicts

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As crazy as it sounds, the Saudis are going broke.

Of course you wouldn’t know it if you read the account of King Salman’s latest visit to Washington which included booking the entire DC Four Seasons and procuring a veritable fleet of Mercedes S-Class sedans.

You’d also be inclined to think that everything is fine if you simply looked at SAMA holdings (i.e. FX reserves) which still total nearly $700 billion. 

The problem however, is the outlook. 

Fighting wars costs money and so does bribing the citizenry to ensure you don’t get some kind of Arab Spring-type uprising. When you endeavor to artificially suppress the price of the export that is the source for your wealth and international prestige (all in an epic attempt to bankrupt the competition and secure geopolitical “ancillary benefits”) you don’t do yourself any favors from a financial perspective and now, the Saudis are staring down a massive budget deficit and a current account that’s in the red for the first time in ages.

So while things may look on the up and up from an FX reserve perspective (even as the cushion is at its lowest level since 2013) and while the kingdom has plenty of capacity to borrow with a debt-to-GDP ratio of just a little over 2%, things are about to get ugly very quickly going forward and if Riyadh decides to plunge headlong into Syria’s civil war, it will only get worse. Note that while debt levels are likely to stay low relative to a world where countries like Japan are borrowing so much that the number of decimal places won't even fit into a title, going from basically 0% to ~16% of GDP in the space of just 24 months isn't exactly a good sign:

The situation is in fact so dire that the Saudis have begun delaying payments to contractors in an effort to preserve cash. 

On Wednesday, the IMF is out with a new report on the economic outlook for the Mid-East and the picture for the Saudis is not pretty. In short, Riyadh will burn through its cushion in less than 5 years under current conditions. Here’s more: 

Sharply lower oil prices have significantly affected the fiscal prospects of oil exporters across MENA and the CCA.1 The Brent oil price is projected to average $53 a barrel in 2015, down from almost $110 a barrel in the first half of last year. Exporters’ fiscal balances have turned from sizable surpluses to large deficits, with MENA and CCA export revenues dropping by $360 billion and $45 billion, respectively, this year alone.

 

 

For oil exporters, the main policy issue is fiscal adjustment and rebuilding buffers over the medium term. The Brent oil price is projected to recover only modestly to about $66 a barrel by the end of the decade, with MENA and CCA export receipts remaining $345 billion and $30 billion, respectively, below the 2014 level, even in 2020. In the absence of adjustment, fiscal balances will remain in deep deficit in most countries, with public debt ratios rising rapidly (red lines in Figure 4.2). 

 

 

Even under the IMF baseline scenario, however, public debt ratios will continue to rise in many GCC and CCA exporters (blue lines in Figure 4.2). In a number of countries, mediumterm fiscal balances will fall well short of the levels needed to ensure that an adequate portion of the income from exhaustible oil and gas reserves is saved for future generations (Figure 4.3). Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia have medium-term fiscal gaps of some 15–25 percentage points of non-oil GDP, while conflict-torn Libya has a gap of more than 50 percent of non-oil GDP. 

 

The large and sustained drop in oil prices has increased fiscal vulnerabilities in MENA and CCA oil-exporting countries. The issue of fiscal space has become critical as oil exporters decide how quickly to adjust their fiscal policies to the new reality of persistently lower oil prices. This box considers several alternative measures of fiscal space. A good starting point is the size of governments’ financial assets—commonly referred to as “fiscal buffers.” In general, countries with larger buffers can afford to maintain fiscal deficits further into the future, so as to reduce the impact of lower oil prices on growth. On current trends, however, all non-GCC MENA oil exporters are already projected to run out of liquid financial assets in the next three years (see Chapter 1). In, contrast, CCA oil exporters have at least 15 years’ worth of available financial savings,1 while GCC countries are split evenly between countries with relatively large buffers (Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—more than 20 years remaining) and countries with relatively smaller buffers (Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia—less than five years).

As a refresher, here's BofAML's sensitivity analysis which shows how long Riyadh's SAMA reserves will last under various scenarios for crude prices and debt issuance:

One important takeaway from the above is that if the Saudis were to burn through their reserves it would represent a nearly $700 billion global liquidity drain as Riyadh dumps its USD-denominated assets. That would amount to a complete reversal of the petrodollar virtuous circle that's underwritten decades of dollar dominance and which has served to underpin the global economic order for as far back as most market participants can remember. 

And while it's by no means a foregone conclusion that oil prices will remain "lower for longer" as the Saudis are to a certain extent the masters of their own destiny in that regard, one thing worth noting is that not only is Iranian supply set to come back online, but Tehran seems determined to supplant Riyadh as regional power broker. Both of those eventualities will have very real consequences for crude prices and thus for the future of The House of Saud.

 

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Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:41 | 6695208 Berspankme
Berspankme's picture

back to camel fucking

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:45 | 6695220 Looney
Looney's picture

IMF’s forecasts are as good as Dennis Gartman’s.

Speaking of the devil… ;-)

It looks like our new Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dunford, is a disciple of Dennis Gartman.

Just yesterday, he said: “Iraq is not planning to turn to Russia for airstrikes and other military assistance in its fight against Islamic State militants”.

And today, according to FarsNews:

Iraq Moves to Exclude US from Anti-ISIL Campaign

Wed Oct 21, 2015 TEHRAN (FNA)- Deputy Secretary General of Iraq's Badr Organization Abdolkarim al-Ansari blasted the US-led Anti-ISIL Coalition's poor performance in fighting the Takfiri terrorists, and said his country does no more want Washington's help in the war against the militant group.

I suspect that both, Syria and Iraq, had requested Russia’s assistance IN WRITING before the first Russian plane landed in Latakia. Iraq’s request hasn’t been announced yet. I think? ;-)

Looney

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13940729001252

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:47 | 6695248 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

What I'm getting out of this is that SA either isn't going to go broke at all, or they have 6-12 months. 

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:52 | 6695271 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Wait for "BOGO Camel" sales on FleaBay. You'll get some real bargains there.

 

Be sure to to ask for one that's not been too abused. Some of those "preowned" camels are pretty worn out.

 

Ohyeah, make sure that clearly state, "Free Shipping."

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:55 | 6695296 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

 

 

The Saudis look at how long the US has been "operating" in the red and say...

"We're doing just fine."

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:20 | 6695432 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

Saudi's can't print USD.

 

Talk about shooting yourself in the face.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:29 | 6695469 Fahque Imuhnutjahb
Fahque Imuhnutjahb's picture

No worries, they'll annex Yemen and offset the shortfall.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:45 | 6695537 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

"Each camel comes with a FREE box of vaseline!"

 

Now that's a bargain!

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 17:54 | 6696091 balolalo
balolalo's picture

THIS SOUNDS LIKE A COUNT DOWN TO WW3.   T-MINUS 5 YEARS AND COUNTING.   COUNTING FAST.   

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 18:22 | 6696207 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Nah. No reason to fight over Saudi Arabia now, just let it degenerate back into a tribal nation full of camel rapists like it was before WWI. There is plenty of oil now and they are not needed as manipulators of the financial system any longer.

Not to mention I really would like to get rid of the Islamofacist program of Rent-A-US Bankster and Rent-A-US Politician and try to get some normal, sane, real Americans looking out for our own nation for once.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 22:59 | 6697078 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

the scene is kinda backwards, but...I'm sure you all get the meaning.  Even if the rag-heads won't.  LOL ;-)

Well...Bye!

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 23:05 | 6697091 Save_America1st
Thu, 10/22/2015 - 04:18 | 6697419 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

i suppose as long as somali foot soldiers are willing to be sent to fight in yemen, the saudis can continue an air war with token ground troops.  if i hadn't been king for a year yet i'd be careful how many body bags i shipped home though.

however saudi pilots flying u.s. planes will have a considerably tougher time in syria, should they be so bold and foolish. sometimes it just comes down to who is really willing to fight, not just offer money.

if iran truly does get the sanctions lifted and starts selling oil in quantity, the current u.s. policy in syria and iraq looks untenable.

next stop an iranian/russian protectorate from the afghanistan border to the med.  

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 22:47 | 6697042 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

 

 

The pot calling the kettle black


Wed, 10/21/2015 - 22:53 | 6697058 Luc X. Ifer
Luc X. Ifer's picture

Far too slow!

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:07 | 6695639 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

 

 

"Saudi's can't print USD."

Wanna bet?

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:27 | 6695725 leftcoastfool
leftcoastfool's picture

"Saudi's can't print USD."

They can if Jeb "bin Abdulaziz Al Saud" Bush gets installed into the oval office...

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 18:19 | 6696189 greenskeeper carl
greenskeeper carl's picture

this goes with what I have been saying for a long time - the house of saud will not make it past 2020.

 

Wait, shit, the IMF is always wrong, so I guess Id better re think that hypothesis. This probably means they'll be fine.

Thu, 10/22/2015 - 04:28 | 6697421 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

well the imf said broke in five years.  if it were three they'd also be wrong, wouldn't they?

when's the last time the saudis fought a war?  i think their new guy is getting in over his head. 

kings come and go.  so do royal families.  

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:51 | 6695281 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

It's more along the lines of not being wiped off the map and with President Zippy and Ketchup-Boy helping things along, their doomed.....

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:56 | 6695303 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I wonder if it bothers SA that, if they were to quit exporting oil, we'd probably happily turn a blind eye as Russia shit-stomped the fuck out of them? 

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:14 | 6695676 brodix
brodix's picture

If they quit exporting oil, the Russians wouldn't have to bother.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:18 | 6695689 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

You do have a point.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:52 | 6695287 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

The IMF sees every set of data points as a straight line with some fixed slope.  Their modeling systems can't fit data to curves.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:55 | 6695298 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

What is this "non-linearity" thing that you speak of?  Unpossible!

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:53 | 6695576 Kaervek
Kaervek's picture

"With inflation currently at 0.5%, according to our models we can be confident hyper-inflation won't hit the US ever"

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 23:03 | 6697087 uhland62
uhland62's picture

They say in the headline "5 years". Whenever, couldn't happen to a nicer people. But they've still got their tourism business. They could figure out a way to extend that tourism business over a longer time than just a week per year, have fewer deaths, and bingo, they don't even need to pump any oil. 

Thu, 10/22/2015 - 04:31 | 6697426 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

islamoland?

muslimworld?

Thu, 10/22/2015 - 07:11 | 6697523 waterwitch
waterwitch's picture

Wait until they have to turn off the A/C!  Talk about deaths!

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:51 | 6695272 giggler321
giggler321's picture

What's the matter with debt?  I mean everyone else is broke already.  Might as well join the party.  The waters cold, come on in...

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:43 | 6695223 madcows
madcows's picture

yeah, but did you see the teats on that thing!

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:48 | 6695257 City_Of_Champyinz
City_Of_Champyinz's picture

Ever wonder why they force their women to wear a fucking burqa in the middle east?  Nobody wants to look at that shit, and if you do, that drooling camel standing by the tent starts looking pretty damn fine...

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 18:21 | 6696204 greenskeeper carl
greenskeeper carl's picture

sorry, but youre dead wrong on that. I have seen some absolutely beautiful saudi, kuwaiti, and bahraini women.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 19:48 | 6696511 SuperVinci
SuperVinci's picture

Ditto. I've seen countless hot saudi, iraqi, kuwaiti, and bahraini camels.

Thu, 10/22/2015 - 04:37 | 6697427 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

and, specifically, the head scarves and cover up clothes are because all the men (supposedly but hey they would know best) really do get so turned on by the sight of these women that the men must be protected from themselves.

there have been incidents on the riviera, but that is a pretty tempting place.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 23:08 | 6697099 uhland62
uhland62's picture

When this thought construct was put together, they were living in tents in the Arabian desert. It made perfect sense to cover your hair and face to avoid getting all that sand blown in, given the situation that the tents were not equipped with a hot shower. All religious commandments have a practical reason from the time when they were invented. 

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:49 | 6695264 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

Something from the OLD TESTAMENT for them:

Job 4:8 

As I have seen, those who plow iniquity and sow trouble reap the same

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:24 | 6695448 janus
janus's picture

Lord A. Tennyson once said that the Book of Job is the world's finest piece of literature...ever.  i don't know if i'd go quite that far, but it remains one of my all-time favs.

and so, BullyBearish, please forgive janus for appending instead a quote from said book i think a tad more apropos:

it comes from the scene where satan has come before the Heavenly Host, making his regular visit to accuse and condemn the children of men.  God says to satan, "where have you been?"  satan replies, "roaming to and fro about the face of the earth."  God says, "have you considered my servant Job?"  at this point, they go back and forth and God almost boasts over the righteousness of this, the richest man in the east.  in a pique of contempt, satan shoots back a great line:

"skin for skin; a man will give all that he has to save his life."

and then, God gave satan permission to torment Job, take all that he has and test the fortitude of his faith...with one small rejoiner, "you cannot touch him." (meaning, you must spare his life).

and so it was that job was left bereft of all that he had.  servant after servant came to him saying that his entire estate and all his hard-partying children had been consumed in calamity.  all he had at this point remaining was a nagging wife who encourgaed him to curse God, a body pocked with turgid boils and a few friends who sought to blame him for his misfortune.  

if you'd like to learn more about the story of Job, go check out a book called The Bible.

other than that, it think it's interesting that Job, much like saud, was the richest in the east...and, on balance, when it comes to the flesh-trade, the saud account is far over-due...and their hard-partying children have been raping and drugging and sodomizing their way across the planet.  

and so the question must be posed to the custodians of the shrines,  when it comes to skin for skin, how much of your hide are you willing to spare to save your life?

all this, and we haven't even gotten to the missing 28 pages from the 9-11 report, the soon-coming 'revelation' about obama's past (and his connections to rhyiad), and a host of other sensational accounts detailing various secret accounts used to fund much of the world's mischief and their associated misprisons.

for Job, there was a happy-ending...for saud, i don't see such a rosy finale.

but, saud, i'm sure tel aviv will be a loyal and longstanding supporter in gratitude for all your cooperation...they have a peerless reputation for dependability and honor, after all.

janus

 

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:07 | 6695631 Kaervek
Kaervek's picture

As if there was any justice left in this world...

The show will go on and if the royal family is put to the sword the next leader will come along and start the circle of raping and pillaging anew.

Your piece of shit bible was only written to ensnare and enslave the masses, and those in charge of this crime are the closest thing to satan you will ever get.

What a beautiful piece of shit world this is, where fanatics kill each other over the interpretation of a worthless and fraudulent "book" they call holy.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:33 | 6695755 janus
janus's picture

simmer-down, kaervek.  do not for one moment pretend that you understand the nature of my thinking nor the purpose in my citing The Bible.

whether or not that book be True (in the platonic sense), it does have within it a 'truth' that governs this world we both inhabit.  that may not be comfortable for you; and it's not a pleasant thing for me, at times, either.  be that as it may, and whatsoever of it may or may not be 'true', every word of it is going to come to pass...all the tumblers are falling into place, and you are witnessing the 'forging of Fate' -- right before your very eyes.  the inertia of it all seems unstoppable. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IIZPURwTK8

after all, is it 'prophesy' or is it 'projection'.  now, this is a disturbing question crippling every instinct as it relates to existentialism...but it's quite a thing to consider.  

the masses, by and large, seek unto slavery -- by instinct.  they like to plate themselves with the veneer of 'independence' and 'freedom'; but most are simply sheep seeking out the shelter of the most accommodating protection...knowing, somewhere in the back of their minds, that due to such submission they'll be their whole life sheared and herded by nasty hounds, and their little ewes will oft be sliced and roasted -- but at least it beats the predations of wolves.   

p.s. people will kill each other for whatever reason is most compelling and expedient.  did the commies kill in the name of this book?  and what of the killing that preceeded books?  

janus

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 21:16 | 6696831 EINSILVERGUY
EINSILVERGUY's picture

You sir are a gentleman and a scholar.  I commend your logic and write of verse

Thu, 10/22/2015 - 04:46 | 6697432 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

i hope you're right janus. particularly on "the soon-coming 'revelation' about obama's past (and his connections to rhyiad), and a host of other sensational accounts detailing various secret accounts used to fund much of the world's mischief and their associated misprisons."

while we're at it, don't forget

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsoY3AIRUGA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YW6mJOqRDI4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhROd7Jt3-w

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgM6hjNedE0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rj_AL4OlmHc&feature=iv&src_vid=rnbMjAN7B...

http://www.luogocomune.net/site/modules/sections/index.php?op=viewarticl...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVHstSrC1CQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gORu-68SHpE

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:06 | 6695635 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

Very nice Janus...thank you

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:15 | 6695680 centerline
centerline's picture

Always enjoy reading your posts Janus.  Glad your still posting from time to time.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:36 | 6695768 janus
janus's picture

thanks, Centerline...same here.

shame is, i'm very much in the 'starving' phase of my starving-artist phase.  

been working too much.

 

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 17:56 | 6696100 cheech_wizard
cheech_wizard's picture

My plan B actually made some money last weekend. Finally got some customers who wanted some logs turned into lumber. Since I'm working out of state, had the stepson do some Saturday labor at the homestead. Charged $45/hr to run the sawmill for 5 hours. My stepson finally gets it. Offer a service that people are willing to pay you more than minimum wage for, and make some fiat in the process.

His immediate thoughts: That was damn good money for 5 hours worth of work, so over e-mail he and I designed a flyer for him to stick up. He's been running all over the neighboring towns putting them up. He is an ex-Navy corpsman and trained phlebotomist and can't find a job that pays more than $10/hr in the area.

Standard Disclaimer: The underground economy will continue to grow.

 

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:36 | 6695766 Seer
Seer's picture

It's a MATH problem, pure and simple.

SA is experiencing what becomes of growth.  Perpetual growth on a finite planet isn't possible. DUH!

"Go forth and multiply."  We were doomed to fail math from pretty early on...

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:57 | 6695848 janus
janus's picture

Seer, i agree...but it isn't so much math that dooms us, it's biology.  all that lives ends in death.  and whether that be from old age, disease, warfare, or CO2 poisoning, over-crowding...the result is the same.

the world will keep on spinning, and we won't be here to see most of it (and we've already missed a lot).

a greater doom, i believe, lies in the attempt to manage the expansion of mankind by sliderules and spreadsheets...for my part, an obsession with infinite abstractions in the minds of finite beings should lead to an overwhelming question, which is always present -- in our struggle to overcome death, we inevitably prove its grim constrictions.  the fate of an individual life we know; but is life itself eternal?  and what of consciousness and sentience?  and can the concept of infinity even be a concept without a consciousness to grasp it?  so if consciousness disappears, does infinity go along with it?  

i'm sorry, i still say to my sons -- go forth and multiply...damn the torpedoes...do not worry about tomorrow, the day's trouble is sufficient of itself...the gift of life is a miracle, and we are blessed to have it -- no matter in what share.  most importantly, may the best man win.  like the spark of Divinity and darwinism all rolled into one; not pitted against itself, but working in synthesis.  

the only option, my friend, is to turn the world over to those who breed in squalor and have no interest in the nobility of mankind.

planet earth does not need any help in stabilizing its population...it's been doing a damn fine job of it for eons and eons.

janus

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 20:33 | 6696665 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

reminds me of that george carlin line

Thu, 10/22/2015 - 01:43 | 6697327 Don Keot
Don Keot's picture

It boils down for me to "Bloom where you are planted"

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:55 | 6695299 Demdere
Demdere's picture

Who can believe such nonsense? A prediction of events 5 years in the future?  When has the IMF gotten its own budget right

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:08 | 6695371 Cornfedbloodstool
Cornfedbloodstool's picture

F those sand niggers.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:22 | 6695439 iClaudius
iClaudius's picture

'back to camel fucking'
They never stopped, it's the national sport.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:23 | 6695710 Jena
Jena's picture

They'll stop eventually. Or maybe not.

Camels are suspected to be the main vector in MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) or MERS CoV (corona virus). Causes severe respiratory distress, fever and eventually renal failure. Mortality rate around 40%, depends on age and co-morbidities. Most of the people who have become ill have had contact with camels/camel products or are secondary or tertiary contacts of the ill (family members, healthcare workers). Bats were thought to be vectors as well because a certain type tests positive for antibodies but too few of the sick and dead had any contact with them. Probably just a reservoir.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:32 | 6695487 wmbz
wmbz's picture

I believe the diaper heads aka sand niggas refer to "it" as humping, fucking sounds so rude.

Thu, 10/22/2015 - 04:50 | 6697434 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

i'm going with it's called a word, written in a script, neither of us will ever undestand.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 17:25 | 6695749 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

Going back to camel fucking will be a major fall from grace from some of the current intramural activities:

 

Sitting, high as a kite in a multi million dollar mansion, having your face farted in by sycophants, while sexually harrassing / assaulting the female help and male members of the entourage.

 

http://nypost.com/2015/10/21/saudi-prince-accused-of-gay-sex-threats-and...

 

Although... it is in the same sphere, so either way prince doo doo still gets his nut.

 

p.s downvoters, I didn't write the story, or ask a paramour to fart in my face.

Thu, 10/22/2015 - 04:52 | 6697435 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

i wish our rulers spent more time this way than as they do.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:47 | 6695810 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

The Royal Beheaders become the royally beheaded, and that USD as global reserve currency begins to look rather precarious. . . .

Recommended reading:

The Devil's Chessboard, by David Talbot

http://www.jfkessentials.com/forum/index.php?topic=220.0

 

 

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 17:37 | 6696025 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

they never stopped...

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 20:08 | 6696579 sam i am
sam i am's picture

Outhouse of Saud

Thu, 10/22/2015 - 01:21 | 6697308 wizteknet
wizteknet's picture

Did someone say nice, come on man http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAGnKpE4NCI

Fri, 10/23/2015 - 01:07 | 6701659 onmail1
onmail1's picture

Camels bite too 

thats hard

some ppl die

Hah ha

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:42 | 6695211 semperfi
semperfi's picture

like that really matters these days

 

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:19 | 6695694 Climb
Climb's picture

Exactly... I don't know anyone else that's going to make it 5 years!  Does this mean they win?

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:47 | 6695251 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

If the switch is planned...then there is nothing to benefit the common man in it.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:53 | 6695289 Tom Servo
Tom Servo's picture

the sky fell during the shemita nonsense also...

 

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:16 | 6695413 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

So that's what all those blue gobs of goo all over the ground were.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:10 | 6695659 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Naw, that was just the mess left after the great Smurf gangbang of Smurfette.  She'll be walking as bowlegged as a Saudi camel. 

Thu, 10/22/2015 - 02:29 | 6697313 wizteknet
wizteknet's picture

triple boggie, Is that how its said? Cant believe i didnt pay my light bill! thank gawd for extensions.... credit -13 futures x 3 days... -10 today.

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLPq020WpDngpl9FBU40a4R6kHQ-LVx13n

bitchezzz

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:48 | 6695260 Bay Area Guy
Bay Area Guy's picture

Technically speaking, the US is broke now.  If everyone were to redeem their chits at the same time, we go tits up.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:54 | 6695294 centerline
centerline's picture

The US is perpetually broke.  As are most modern governments. 

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:42 | 6695213 Cosmicserpent
Cosmicserpent's picture

Maybe they can stretch it out to six years if they stop funding terrorists.  Die motherfuckers.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:43 | 6695214 madcows
madcows's picture

big whoop.  america and euroland are already there.  join the club.  maybe they should buy some digital printers.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:42 | 6695216 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

And only months ago the world was declaring how Saudi 'Deep Pockets' could sustain the energy price war for 20 years or more!!!

Alternatively, they've been predicting Russia's financial collapse for months!

Methinks there is something wrong with their analytical methods.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 19:12 | 6696397 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

Methinks there is something wrong with their analytical methods.

 

That's not what I heard on CNN, FOX and CNBS!!  According to them everything is groovy man . . . .

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:43 | 6695224 blabam
blabam's picture

Would be nice. 

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:45 | 6695227 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture
Saudi Arabia Will Be Broke In 5 Years

4 years and 364 days too long to wait for the corrupt, cruel cabal that runs Saudi Arabia to meet its karma.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:48 | 6695258 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Payback for the petrodollar.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:54 | 6695291 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Are you trying to say they'll renig on building those 22,000 mosques for the muzzies in Deutschland?

 

 

PS: "Deutschland" means Germany for those of you who don't speak German.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:19 | 6695429 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

I thought Deutschland meant white women available for raping.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:40 | 6695518 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

Wait until Heidi gets a look at Mohammed's wmd:

 

http://img.izismile.com/img/img5/20120815/640/the_hottest_german_girls_o...

 

Thu, 10/22/2015 - 08:51 | 6697841 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

who can hate patriotic bunny ears?

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 17:06 | 6695887 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

Yogi - Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. 

Janus is correct on his post, the tumblers have been locked into place. But remember, there is an other side to these.times that is promised also. 

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:44 | 6695235 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

this must be the reason why the Dow just did this...

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DJIA

fuck off.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:20 | 6695434 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Fuck on.

Fuck off.

How to get the clap from her.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:45 | 6695236 news printer
news printer's picture
Blogger Reveals How Assad (Probably) Flew to Moscow, Evading US Intel http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20151021/1028885698/russia-assad-secret-flight-revealed.html
Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:34 | 6695497 Oldrepublic
Oldrepublic's picture

Nice, over the Caspian Sea

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:46 | 6695240 gadzooks
gadzooks's picture

No it Wont, Goodbye IMF

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:46 | 6695245 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Following a bankrupt country like the US and you end up bankrupt.

 

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:47 | 6695250 Jethro
Jethro's picture

Back to camel herding then...

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:51 | 6695276 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

If you want to call it "herding" that's up to you.  But we don't require polite company here at ZH. 

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:12 | 6695663 Jethro
Jethro's picture

I figured the height difference would probably make that a little more difficult, and I thought that's what Arabs used goats for.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:28 | 6695730 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Something tells me that this is a topic best not overthought. 

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 19:02 | 6696356 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

If you want to call it "herding" that's up to you.  But we don't require polite company here at ZH.

 

That's right . . . and let's call a spade a spade here.  It's camel humping the bastards are expert at.  Where else in the world would drinking camel piss be considered an aphrodisiac??  Don't believe me? Google it . . . . .

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:47 | 6695254 CHoward
CHoward's picture

Nothing personal but fuck 'em.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:50 | 6695256 FreeShitter
FreeShitter's picture

WWIII long before the house of saud goes broke.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:49 | 6695265 Teh Finn
Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:51 | 6695275 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Cry me a fucking river. Anybody, or group of somebodies who lives that ostentatiously why the rest of their society lives in poverty needs to be fucking hung. The sooner the better.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:24 | 6695445 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

Are you talking about Obama flying his dogs to Hawaii for his monthy vacations or the Saudi's?

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:52 | 6695277 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

Broke in 5 years.

Not too surprising considering that Saudi "princes" apparently get off when people fart in their faces.

 

http://nypost.com/2015/10/21/saudi-prince-accused-of-gay-sex-threats-and...

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:23 | 6695443 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

When you're used to smelling camel ass all the time you kinda need someone to fart in your face to help relive the memories.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:51 | 6695278 message
message's picture

Russia under criminal putin regime - in 2 years!

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:07 | 6695366 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

You zios are losing it  -you see dreams of Greater Israel slipping away  - a small immoral nation surrounded by powerful enemies-all allied together under the protection of the Russian Bear- your main ally  -your puppet -the US -bankrupt, losing all moral authority among the entire world  -soon to be embroiled in the Battle for America as the Patriots lead the sheeple into their great awakening from the comfort of the Matrix-- Working together to take our country back from the Luciferian elites who have raped, pillaged and corrupted America.   

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:25 | 6695453 Joke Heros
Joke Heros's picture

Has your cranial fluid been replaced with potato vodka?

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:40 | 6695481 iClaudius
iClaudius's picture

I think he is one of those people that Putin suggested have oatmeal for brains.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 18:56 | 6696331 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

I think he is one of those people that Putin suggested have oatmeal for brains.

 

Digested oatmeal (i.e. shit) is more like it . . . .

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:51 | 6695822 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

Now that would be quite an improvement!!!!!

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 18:54 | 6696319 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

Russia under criminal putin regime - in 2 years!

 

Puleasssse! 

Message - Haven't you gotten the "message" by now??  Every comment you make draws more downvotes than flies on shit!  By unanimous vote of all coherent ZHr's we demand you go back to your day job and get out of mommy's basement in Tel Aviv or Kiev or where ever the hell you post your garbage from.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:52 | 6695288 IndyPat
IndyPat's picture

Maybe Israel will hold a bake sale for them?

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:57 | 6695307 Joe Tierney
Joe Tierney's picture

Pretty soon, whether by de facto control or by outright takeover, we'll need to change the name of Saudi Arabia to Russo-Arabia anyway....

 

Then it will be set on a path of economic and financial health and stability. I hope the Russians take the Saudi 'royal' familiy out back for some long-overdue executions....

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 14:58 | 6695314 ghostzapper
ghostzapper's picture

Let's see an analysis using oil between $15-$25 for those five years.  

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:00 | 6695324 Able Ape
Able Ape's picture

New Saudi chain soon to open: "Goats R Us"...

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:02 | 6695333 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Their goats are defective.  They get stuck in fences all the time and need "help" getting through. 

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:01 | 6695327 PrimalScream
PrimalScream's picture

If that timeline is roughyl correct, then the Saudis will experience difficult economic measures and possibly violent demonstrations - well before 4 years. That means that the Saudi family will certainly attempt another coup or power play within its ranks.  And the kingdom will become much more violent and oppressive in its efforts to maintain control over its own citizens.

You want to go LONG on Saudi beheadings ... there are a lot more coming.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:02 | 6695331 silverer
silverer's picture

This one's easy.  Check with California consultants, they'll write it up for you.  "How to solve regular problems with ridiculous solutions".

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:03 | 6695334 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Don't kid yourself, they would never have crushed oil prices last year, unless the US Fed was underwriting it.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:10 | 6695378 Trick Shroadé
Trick Shroadé's picture

President Trump will have to send in ground troops to prop them up.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:11 | 6695383 wisebastard
wisebastard's picture

so the IMF is making a decleragiton of war with the saudis..................do they own any tall towers

 

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:11 | 6695385 MoonSun
MoonSun's picture

Oil producing countries have been stable because they have no taxes and they give subsidies to their people.

Subsidies have finished. Taxes are coming.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:12 | 6695393 milking institute
milking institute's picture

Broke in five years? haha, Putin says he can speed that up considerably...

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:13 | 6695397 American Sucker
American Sucker's picture

One important takeaway from the above is that if the Saudis were to burn through their reserves it would represent a nearly $700 billion global liquidity drain as Riyadh dumps its USD-denominated assets.

This doesn't make sense to me.  No dollars are being destroyed; they're being diverted to Saudi Arabia, which in turn will use them to purchase goods and services.  Why is this a liquidity drain?

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 18:51 | 6696309 Jstanley011
Jstanley011's picture

Same thing goes for China dumping Treasuries. The only entity that can inject or withdraw liquidity is the central bank.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:15 | 6695401 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture
Saudi Arabia Will Be Broke In 5 Years, IMF Predicts

 

 

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of degenerate, head chopping, lunatics . . .

Oh, and BTW . . . . their published information on their proven oil reserves is complete bullshit.  Right now most of their wells are pumping out 97% water and only 3% crude.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 17:54 | 6696088 Jack Oliver
Jack Oliver's picture

That's pretty obvious illustrated by their grab for Yemen and control of Syrian reserves - Putin has recently offered the Saudi's some joint venture opportunities - likely as a trade off to stop the slaughter in Yemen - smart guy is Mr Putin !

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 19:06 | 6696379 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

. . . . smart guy is Mr Putin !

 

Damn straight he is!  I'm no Putin worshiper but it sure is refreshing to see a world leader with some balls for a change.  Especially one that is willing to stand up to the "western" powers and is unwilling to back down . . . . it's about fucking time.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:16 | 6695410 Mewa
Mewa's picture

that okay...the US was broke 10 years ago....only they are too stupid and conceited to understand or acknowledge it.....

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:16 | 6695411 Benjamin123
Benjamin123's picture

The saudis may be broke in 5 years. Or not. Lots of things can happen.

This IMF analysis is crap.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:33 | 6695492 ncdirtdigger
ncdirtdigger's picture

So where will that $700 billion wind up? Who will purchase the US Treasuries that make up the bulk of that reserve amount? How big can the Fed's balance sheet get?

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:34 | 6695494 Omega_Man
Omega_Man's picture

go houthies

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:38 | 6695511 Kyddyl
Kyddyl's picture

This is absurd. Perhaps the Saudis are being "subsidized" under the table. Gee, I wonder who would do that? And probably on the taxpayers dime. Or there's a huge new oil find, pretty, but very remote possibility. Their oil fields are old and damaged. Plus they've been taking lessons in "modern" banking, statistics and lies. The US allies are "losing" and the US still gets some 17% of its oil from the Mid East. OPEC as it stands now is talking about price banding in oil, around $88. Oil prices are about to go up as Saudi will have to buy yet more US armament, Iran is coming online and the remanents of OPEC are going to return to more profitable levels as the people are getting restless and guillotones and axes are being sharpened.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:39 | 6695513 jesus_loves_you
jesus_loves_you's picture

My Daddy called this "nigger rich". Flush on Friday, broke on Monday.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:40 | 6695561 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

World Bank Revises Down Forecasts for Oil Prices, Other Key Commodities in 2015 and 2016
20 October 2015, Washington (World Bank)
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2015/10/20/world-bank-revises-down-forecasts-for-oil-prices-other-key-commodities-in-2015-and-2016

Maybe they should cut down on those Paris hookers.

 

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:51 | 6695569 Salzburg1756
Salzburg1756's picture

My fart goes out to them.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:55 | 6695583 hannah
hannah's picture

saudi arabia is technically broke today.....if you owe more than you make...YOU ARE BROKE...!

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 15:55 | 6695584 Oldrepublic
Oldrepublic's picture

You know having 15,000 Royals is a  big drain on the exchequer

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:02 | 6695613 scatha
scatha's picture

The Saudi regime , that was preserved in the form established in 1920-ties by the British is on a verge of collapse with huge uncertainty of what's next.

And here is why:

https://contrarianopinion.wordpress.com/short-opinionlets-of-current-eve...

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:02 | 6695615 rejected
rejected's picture

They should model after the ussa government that just prints up the money to invade or bomb the crap out of some little nation and could give a rats butt less what its citizens think.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:07 | 6695641 Bopper09
Bopper09's picture

"Of course you wouldn’t know it if you read the account of King Salman’s latest visit to Washington which included booking the entire DC Four Seasons and procuring a veritable fleet of Mercedes S-Class sedans."

 

Umm, that's EXACTLY why I believe it.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:13 | 6695669 ZippyDooDah
ZippyDooDah's picture

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of pederasts. FU S.A.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:36 | 6695764 pupdog1
pupdog1's picture

Couldn't happen to a nicer coterie of WahabiNazi twinkle-toed goat fucking accident-of-birth head chopping skyscraper targeting maid molesting do-nothing rat-faced beak-nosed Bush befriending useless eaters.

 

Thu, 10/22/2015 - 01:06 | 6697297 Pliskin
Pliskin's picture

You forgot sandal-wearing.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:54 | 6695836 fowlerja
fowlerja's picture

When the times get rough ....time to go to Allah...

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 16:59 | 6695857 IronForge
IronForge's picture

Probably not.

They can cut production, start a War with IRN, buy up Wall Street Bank Shares, and/or open major offices in Wall Street and other Financial Districts in the West to make $$$. 

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 17:00 | 6695863 madashellron
madashellron's picture

The United States dollar has been prop up by the dollars for oil scheme that the Saudi's have been the backbone of for many decades now. With more and more countries dropping out of the dollars for oil scheme the U.S. becomes weaker and weaker each day. Just like Saudi Arabia becomes weaker and weaker each day.

Wed, 10/21/2015 - 17:20 | 6695947 NubianSundance
NubianSundance's picture

The Saudi Regime will be lucky to last another year, let alone five. Especially if its true they're pulling 97% water out of those huge depleted wells of theirs.

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