"All Kinds Of Mayhem Will Let Loose" As Strongest El Nino In Decades Looms

Tyler Durden's picture

September was officially the warmest ever recorded around the globe (the 7th time this year a month has set a record) as El nino is back in a big way. As Bloomberg reports, its effects are just beginning in much of the world -- for the most part, it hasn’t really reached North America -- and yet it’s already shaping up potentially as one of the three strongest El Nino patterns since record-keeping began in 1950.  Expect "major disruptions, widespread droughts and floods," warned a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, adding that without preparation, "all kinds of mayhem will let loose."

September was the warmest ever recorded around the globe, the seventh time this year a month has set a record for average global temperature

. As CBS reports,

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said last month’s global temperature was 60.62 degrees, beating a record set just last year.

In all, seven months this year have set monthly records for global heat, including July, which was the hottest month ever recorded. Only January and April did not set records for global warmth.

It also has been the warmest first nine months of any year ever recorded, dating back to 1880.

NOAA climate scientist Jessica Blunden said it would take an extended cold stretch the rest of the year for 2015 not to pass 2014 as the hottest on record.

With a strong El Niño cycle in place over the Pacific, that appears highly unlikely, as Bloomberg details, the strongest El Nino in decades is going to mess with everything...

It has choked Singapore with smoke, triggered Pacific typhoons and left Vietnamese coffee growers staring nervously at dwindling reservoirs. In Africa, cocoa farmers are blaming it for bad harvests, and in the Americas, it has Argentines bracing for lower milk production and Californians believing that rain is finally, mercifully on the way.



Its effects are just beginning in much of the world -- for the most part, it hasn’t really reached North America -- and yet it’s already shaping up potentially as one of the three strongest El Nino patterns since record-keeping began in 1950. It will dominate weather’s many twists and turns through the end of this year and well into next. And it’s causing gyrations in everything from the price of Colombian coffee to the fate of cold-water fish.


Expect “major disruptions, widespread droughts and floods,” Kevin Trenberth, distinguished senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. In principle, with advance warning, El Nino can be managed and prepared for, “but without that knowledge, all kinds of mayhem will let loose.”

In the simplest terms, an El Nino pattern is a warming of the equatorial Pacific caused by a weakening of the trade winds that normally push sun-warmed waters to the west. This triggers a reaction from the atmosphere above.

Its name traces back hundreds of years to the coast of Peru, where fishermen noticed the Pacific Ocean sometimes warmed in late December, around Christmas, and coincided with changes in fish populations. They named it El Nino after the infant Jesus Christ. Today meteorologists call it the El Nino Southern Oscillation.



The last time there was an El Nino of similar magnitude to the current one, the record-setting event of 1997-1998, floods, fires, droughts and other calamities killed at least 30,000 people and caused $100 billion in damage, Trenberth estimates. Another powerful El Nino, in 1918-19, sank India into a brutal drought and probably contributed to the global flu pandemic, according to a study by the Climate Program Office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

*  *  *
While the effect on the U.S. may not reach a crescendo until February, much of the rest of the world is already feeling the impact, Trenberth said.

“It probably sits at No. 2 in terms of how strong this event is, but we won’t be able to rank it until it peaks out and ends,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland.

For Australia, El Nino can often mean drought.

“In broadest terms, though, we have had 26 past El Nino events since 1900, of which 17 resulted in widespread drought, so we in Australia have to manage for drought in any El Nino event,” Watkins said.

But there is some good news for California...

As the atmosphere changes, storm tracks in the U.S., for instance, are pushed down from the north, so the region from California to Florida could get more rain. This is reflected in the latest three-month outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, which sees high odds that heavy rain will sweep from California into the mid-Atlantic states through January. Texas and Florida have the greatest chance for downpours.


While this isn’t likely to end California’s four-year drought, it would improve conditions. Eliminating the dryness completely will be difficult because the state is so far behind on its normal rainfall.


“If the wettest year were to occur, we still wouldn’t erase the deficit we have seen in the last four years,” said Alan Haynes, service coordination hydrologist at the California Nevada River Forecast Center in Sacramento.

“The general thing about these things is, if you are prepared, it doesn’t have to be a negative,” Trenberth said. Here's hoping!!

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RawPawg's picture


Shemita 2.0?

Alvin Fernald's picture

Nah. But they might want to lay off the geoengineering though. Fuckers.

El Viejo's picture

October has been pretty dry.
Long term forecaster says drought to spread east. Nasa video shows drought spreading east.

Go long freeze dried food.

Tom Servo's picture

there is no way this was the record warmest florida has been...


knukles's picture

Hey!  These are the USGS charts.  All the temps been manipulated upwards!  So if this data is false then maybe Il Nino is not as bad as foretasted and the rains won't come as warned and they can blame global whateverthefuck again.
Al Gore and Krugman will cream in their mom's panties.
As as mentioned above, lay off the geoengineering already

Tom Servo's picture

I just looked, 25 days in SEPTEMBER in Pasco county Florida, were BELOW HISTORICAL AVERAGE temperature.


fuck these fucking fags...


ZerOhead's picture

Wow... 7 of the highest monthly temperatures EVER have been recorded in 2015. AFTER adjustments and JUST in time for the UN's Paris COP21 Climate Convention of course...


Billy the Poet's picture

These are the USGS charts.  All the temps been manipulated upwards!


Not all of them have been manipulated upwards. Temperatures for the 1930s and sea level increases before 1990 have been manipulate downwards.

ZerOhead's picture

The official record of the temperature adjustments (in graphic form) can be found HERE at the NOAA


What really pisses the real scientists off is that the most recent land temperatures should be adjusted DOWN not UP in order to take out the Urban Heat Island effect bias as towns and cities grow...

HopefulCynical's picture

That's the least of the lies being told.

CO2 is a lagging indicator of climate change, not a cause. It's ENTIRELY due to solar activity.


greenskeeper carl's picture

Funny how so many ZHers are so skeptical of anything government related, especially the numbers they release about pretty much anything. "250k jobs created?!?! That's fucking bullshit, they just made that up, we are in a fucking depression and these fuckers are lying"

I think that's a pretty fair representation of most reactions around here. Yet when it comes to the govts claims about global warming, they swallow that shit hook line and sinker. At least with most lefties, you know they just love and trust big brother. But you guys are really something special. They may lie about EVERYTHING else, but NOT this. Global warming is real!

Bendromeda Strain's picture

Duuude - if you want to preach to the choir get out of the bathroom stall. Nobody here is buying that shite that I can see. At least none of the respettable names. If you see someone hatin on CO2, check for the .gov IP behind the avatar.

greenskeeper carl's picture

Haha keep reading below, my friend. Well, I guess the 'respectable' part makes it a little different....

Manthong's picture

Where can I find the chart for California Mud Futures ?

Billy the Poet's picture

Yet when it comes to the govts claims about global warming, they swallow that shit hook line and sinker.

Why Skeptics hate climate skeptics


In most cases dealing with claims which emanate from scams, paranormal beliefs, pseudo-science or just ignorance, skeptics have shown great patience and fortitude in allowing proponents the opportunity to make their best case before carefully debunking the proffered evidence and arguments. Skeptics generally were fastidious in providing point by point critiques to each challenge. There was a common understanding that for valid beliefs evidence could be lined up and presented so that the average person could understand and follow the reasoning. Credentials did not matter so much as evidence and reason. When it comes to climate it seems this approach has been abandoned. Typically the response is merely to label anyone with an inconvenient idea or question as denier. Further discussion is usually limited to assertions that: 1) that the discussion has already occurred, 2) there is considerable (but undescribed) overwhelming evidence and lastly 3) appeals to scientific consensus and the argument that if you’re not a climate scientist you can’t “know” and you shouldn’t be questioning.

Perhaps with science as with magical thinking some embrace fears of climate change because they do not want to accept that weather is random and that bad things can happen for no reason.  Consistent with their role in regards to scams and hoaxes, many still see the task for skeptics as coming up with answers and explanations. Maybe the desire for impressive answers leads to excess certainty and an over-reliance on experts to quell doubts. Unfortunately today not enough skeptics see the value of critical thinking when it leads to an honest “I don’t know”.



El Viejo's picture

did you notice carbon during the carboniferous period? Wonder why its called carboniferous?

ZerOhead's picture

Check out the CO2 levels during the Devonian Silurian Ordovician and Cambrian...



4,000 to 5,000 PPM CO2 for hundreds of millions of years and yet it was also the period during which vast coral reefs evolved as well as the all of the major families of shelled molluscs.

At 4,000 PPM CO2 even a stupid global warming scientist knows that the oceans would surely have immediately dissolved everything... but they didn't for some reason.

Ocean acidification my ass.


Surely? like settled, 100% surely?

Why don't you buy the global warming scientist's book and direct your questions to him, k?

Ocean Acidification

pg. 70, jackass

coinhead's picture
coinhead (not verified) Tom Servo Oct 22, 2015 3:08 PM

Teh we can never hear "El Nino" without thinking of Chris Farley...



noodle's picture

Fuck the global data everyone. Tom stuck his head out of the window and concluded a whole planet was colder.

El Viejo's picture

Funny, but scientists are humans too.

I wonder if the US could count on the rest of the world to supply us food if we have a drought?

Hans-Zandvliet's picture

What I find a strange phenomenon among many Zero Hedge readers, is that they do realize that the corporations (the banksters, the presstitutes for profit, the military industrial complex, the oil companies) have only one thing in their short-term mind and that is to make as much profit as they can regardless of anything else. To that end they have rigged the economy and all statistic about it, bought our politicians to do their bidding and they don't give a shit about screwing billions of people the world over. Until here I fully agree and that's why I'm an enthusiastic ZH reader as well.

On the other hand, many seem unable to wrap their minds around a very similar idea: that by the same motives the energy corporations will do anything to deny that fossil fuels are increasingly expensive to extract and that the exhaust gasses are causing our atmosphere and thus our climate to change. Because admitting this is not the best way to push up their shares and their CEO's bonusses. It gets dismissed by some sort of ridiculous argument that scientists are promoting this so-called climate change hoax to secure more investment for research to preserve their jobs. Realy: how much money can scientists afford to that end? BIG OIL can easily squash that a thousand fold. And they do so indeed.

And this is what I cannot wrap my head around. It seems to me one of the biggest (and most auto-destructive) cognitive dissonances that has ever gripped humanity. I guess that for many people the truth is just to hard to bear, that the American Dream and never-ending growth are not compatible with our (any) finite planet. Too hard to bear, because once you admit the facts, this implies making hard choices to do something about it and that's way out of most people's comfort zones.

Lower Class Elite's picture

lets say instead of climate, it was an asteroid. A big freaking asteroid that you could actually see in the sky, growing bigger and bigger. The fact that a group of sociopathic bankers, and government types would use the impending asteroid impact to turn a profit, exert control over the population, and generally enrich themselves at everyone else's expense does not in any way negate the fact that a giant asteroid is about to fuck shit up..thus it is with climate change, with the added bonus that there is another much larger, richer, and more powerful group of sociopaths who actually manufactured the asteroid and have a vested interest in telling everyone that the asteroid impact is a non-issue made up by a bunch of grant-hungry astronomers.

cougar_w's picture

Florida is not the whole world.

I know, hard to think in those terms.

Tom Servo's picture

Well it's sitting in the middle of a sea of red.  Think in those terms.  25 days below historical average in September.

Billy the Poet's picture

Florida is not the whole world.


But it is on the globe, is it not?

global -adjective : of or relating to the whole world; worldwide.
cougar_w's picture

Florida is not worldwide, then.

Like I said, hard to imagine.

Billy the Poet's picture

If some areas are not showing an increase then any warming is not global by definition.


PS -- How big of  a cultist does one have to be to downvote the dictionary?

cougar_w's picture

It's an average of global temperature changes, so yes you have stumbled upon a very ugly and terrifying reality. Because if the average isn't changing in Florida, then it must be changing a lot someplace else in order for the entire planet to be warmer.

Follows from the math.

In fact most of the warming is at the poles and in the oceans. Wow isn't that too bad? The very places that actually drive our entire planetary atmospheric engine (excluding for discussion the continental equator) are warming the most AND these places are not in America and not in Florida! America and Florida being as they are the gravitational center of All Human Experience makes it hard to impossible for the average guy to wrap his over-taxed brain around the whole thing.

It's ... it's almost as if someone set us up! Oh-em-gee! I think my head just exploded.

Billy the Poet's picture

If you can't even comprehend a simple definition then how can you hope to unravel the intricacies of climate?


Read it again:

global -adjective : of or relating to the whole world; worldwide.


The definition of global is not "an average of what happens in the world." It is " of or relating to the whole world; worldwide." If some areas show no temperature increase then by definition global warming does not exist.

Maybe that's why your high priests tried to change the name of your religion from global warming to climate change. But changing the name contradicts the edict that "the science is settled." Only the faithful can remain true to a religion with so many internal inconsistencies and contradictions.

cougar_w's picture

The math wins.

But hey, you can think what you want and you know why you can do that? Because it doesn't matter for shit what anyone thinks on the topic!

Because math!

Billy the Poet's picture

First things first. Even if you believe that some areas are not warming but other areas are becoming so hot that we're all going to die can you admit that the phrase "global warming" is NOT applicable to that situation?

Because dictionary!

cougar_w's picture

We're talking descriptive science, not liguistics.

Math is the better tool to articulate what is a mathematical description of a dynamic heterogenious system during a period of forced disequilibrium, because the system dynamics are more interesting at the moment than what it is actually called. in the dictionary.

Call it "x". It's fine.

And that's how we do this. Obviously.

Billy the Poet's picture

We're talking descriptive science, not liguistics.


Yes, we're talking. If words have no meaning then we can't understand each other when we talk. Just so I understand your position do you agree that there is no "global warming" taking place?

Lower Class Elite's picture

Billy Billy Biily. Why is it so hard for you fuckers to understand that AlGore is a fuckwit AND you (and me) are shitting our nest. Look, it was fun while it lasted, but 7 plus billion fuckers all aspiring to drive to Starbucks in an SUV while talking on their iPhone is fucking things up. No amount of solar this or hybrid that or certified organic green shit can fix that. We are in classic overshoot as a species. As cougar says, do the fucking math. Or keep playing 4th grade gotcha games over definitions. Whichever.

Billy the Poet's picture

Why is it so hard for you fuckers to understand that AlGore is a fuckwit


Why is Al Gore my fault?  He's the marketing director for AGW and I'm the one trying to point out that lies such as the ones he tells get in the way of rational discussion. And yet you attack me!

Your religion has made you insane, dude. Why don't you try to think and act rationally and use language in a accurate and truthful manner?  

Can you admit that there is no "global warming?" If not, why not? You've already said that Al Gore is a bad person and that's his shtick.

And for what it's worth, my "carbon footprint" is infinitesimal. You really can't bully me and any tax increase would have little effect on me. I'm not the villain you're looking for, I'm  just a guy with a dictionary.


Fact: Al Gore is suffering the same cognitive dissonance over Putin's stance on global warming that Zero Hedge is. Gore doesn't understand the Ukraine situation correctly.

Fact: Al Gore thinks it's kinda "radical" to talk about FUNDING OF POLITICS but says it should be talked about.

No links will be provided at this time.

As couger_w says about that other guy, he's old, cut him some slack. It's as the comment above said, way way bigger than Gore's renewables thang.

detached.amusement's picture

I'll leave you with this one quote, Cougar


"For a method that relies so heavily on statistical manipulations, it is surprising that the IPCC has not employed a single professional statistician"


There's math, and there's statistics.  Dont say math and point the finger at piss poor statistics.

pacu44's picture

all year the local weather people have been saying how cool this year has been, now its the hottest every... Take this garbager liberal shit somewhere else... My guns are not going anywhere. my truck didnt do anything and you can keep your hand out of my pocket....



Peak Finance's picture

Sorry I have to agree with Tom, I live down here too and September was positively mild compared to our usual brutal "indian Summer" and you can independently verify this with real local weather data. And about the map, yes, Florida is not the world,  but Florida is in a deep sea of red on that map which really makes you wonder how much of that data is just raw bullshit. 


greenskeeper carl's picture

Haven't these fuckheads been caught "adjusting" past temperatures lower and current temperatures higher numerous times? And haven't these same fuckheads been using ONE fucking sensor where there used to be three over a large area and simply 'adjusting' all the temperatures to show what they 'think' it should show? These people have been caught lying too many times for me to believe a fucking word they say. Sorry, I'm not keen to come on board with you climate change BS that is really only a scam to tax us all even more. So, kindly, fuck off.

willwork4food's picture

I would rather suck Obama's cock than believe anything that comes out of the . gov squid.

El Viejo's picture

I have friends in TN. They said that in late nineties the West of the State was in a drought, but the East in the Mountains got drenched. I imagine terrain has a lot to do with it. Take a look at California. Mountains really affect rain patterns.

Lower Class Elite's picture

Cougar, how can you not understand this. The Koch Brothers, BP, ExxonMobil, Shell,, Total, GM, Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Chrysler, BMW, Mercedes, the entire shipping and freight industry, the entire airline industry, and all the smaller energy, transport, automotive, and related supplier industries and the banksters and politicians who fund and subsidize them are telling the truth (human caused climate change is not happening) and Nerdly McSpazington PhD, director of climate studies, is lying ( the planet appears to be warming at a rate outside of normal variations, and humans appear to be a large contributor to this) because he wants a $200,000 grant to study glaciers. See?