This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Initial Jobless Claims Hover At 42 Year Lows - So Who Is Lying?
Having hit new 42-year lows last week, initial jobless claims once again beat expectations but rose very modestly from a revised 256k to 259k this week. This continues to diverge drastically from Challenger job cuts data, from weakening payrolls data, and from collapsing ISM survey employment indicators... so who is lying?
Although payroll employment growth has slowed in recent months, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits remain very low. The four-week moving average of initial claims has trended lower again this year—despite meaningful layoffs in energy-producing states—and is currently at the lowest level since early 2000 (Exhibit 1). Does this mean that the current rate of nonfarm payroll growth understates the strength of the labor market?
Not necessarily. As we have noted in prior research, the structural relationship between jobless claims and employment growth changes over the business cycle. Unemployment insurance claims are an observable proxy for one type of labor market flow: the number of persons laid-off each month. However, employment growth is a function of other flows as well—specifically, the number of persons hired, the number who quit voluntarily, and those who separate from employment for other reasons. These other types of labor market flows—other components of Fed Chair Yellen’s labor market “dashboard”—can affect the relationship between layoffs and employment growth over time.
Moreover, initial jobless claims are an imperfect measure of layoffs because the propensity to file a claim—often called the “filing rate” or the “take up rate”—also changes over time. During the financial crisis, for example, the benefit take up rate increased significantly. Exhibit 2 shows the level of jobless claims alongside the measure of total layoffs from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) (claims here are expressed as a monthly rate by multiplying the average weekly rate by the number of weeks per months). Before 2007, approximately 70-80% of layoffs resulted in an unemployment insurance benefit filing. During the recession, claims increased more rapidly than reported layoffs, implying an increase in the claims filing rate. In the years since, claims have fallen much faster than layoffs, implying a decline in the benefit take up rate.
Charts: Bloomberg
»
- 11468 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Obama. Obama is lying. This is always the correct answer. Just as muslims justify lying with taqqiya, so to do the Alinskyites. Anything, including genocide, for the cause.
We are the uncounted......we are legion!
5% unemployment rate, 0% inflation (according to Social Security), Bernie Sanders (an independent) and Hillary Clinton (a deranged Nazi lesbian) the top Democratic presidential candidates. . . A world of lies. Now, back to watching Zero Hedge graphs.
Good news, raise the FFR now motherfuckers!
7+ years into the "recovery", in addition you can do this without increasing the interest on bank reserves.
Yes, "someone" is lying...
Who's lying? Look for the .GOV sticker and you will know.
I have very skilled friends in IT who are becoming depressed because they can't get work-in NYC no less! What a BS charade this figure is...adding insult to injury, you have the pitiful MSM proclaiming it's all good and well.
I've had the same experience - luckily, I've been able to find work (but not for lack of 3 degrees and tons of experience). I get calls, emails, from recruiters about all of these "jobs" out there - but when you dig deeper, they are generally a "pay-cut" job (and a job that is likely to disappear in a year).
"Orange pickers wanted ..."
(we are all Tom Joad now)
This is across the board in all catgories.
Even all the weed delivery jobs in CO are filled...................
The web is rife with bogus "Employment Agencies" that apparently buy contact lists from more legit agencies that big businesses like Little Caesars, for instance (from a friend's report last week), contract with to handle their employment applications.
From what I can gather, these bogus agencies then either represent themselves as frantically seeking applicants for job openings to gather additional personal data of applicants for other uses--like debt collection and a wide variety of sales pitches ranging from onliine "education" to get rich quick from home, online scams--or they just resell the information directly to other people who use it for those purposes. Once you apply for a job, your phone can be blown up by a huge cast of characters who will never stop calling, day after day after day, regardless of your answers or demands that they stop calling. I've had friends forced to change their numbers.
Not to mention that the demands for payment of debts and the wage garnishment orders start rolling in by mail. For many, it doesn't pay to even apply for a shit job.
I wonder how many of the jobs counted as unfilled openings are just vapor generated by these scams.
I had a job hunt 2 years ago and I can't seem to stop getting the spam calls and emails for job openings in TX and other states despite updating my employment status on Monster, Dice, Linkedin, Ladders, etc. Many of these are 6mo ot 1yr contract jobs, but it's work nonetheless. At every time in human history people migrated where the work was. If you're willing to move, the are jobs out there, but most of us won't do it. IMHO, if you linger in the decaying liberal bastions like NYC waiting for things to pick up, you have no one to blame but yourself.
The Professional Labor force is evolving into nomads. Workers will need to constantly relocate to find opportunities in a very dynamic economy. Businesses are no longer interested in hiring people, and are instead switching to project employement which limits labor commitments. Skilled Workers will be hired as contractos to implement projects until completion. Since the newer systems only require semi-skilled labors to operate, they use cheaper labor. One option would be for skilled workers to join a consulting company that sends you different projects from different companies to work at. This would help avoid the constant need to seek out new gigs when your current contract ends.
Of course this has an impact on real estate. Nomadic workers are not interested in buying homes since they are constantly on the move for the next contract. The unskilled/low skill workers are unlikely to afford a home. Also low skilled workers must complete with Overseas workers, that can afford a much lower salary than american workers. For instance Indian workers will rent a small shared apartment so thier living costs are low. They save thier money and eventual return home were the cost of living is much lower. Even at reduce salaries the Indian workers can enjoy a solid middle class livestyle when the return home. However, the lower wages driven by oversea workers makes it impossible for domestic workers to save any money since they have no low cost home country to return to.
One option for nomadic workers it buy a home in a very low cost region, but plan on renting small apartments for work. Plan on working hard for 6 to 9 months, and then spend the remainder of the year at home. For some IT and information jobs, working remotely could be an option. The advantage of have a home in the country, is that when the SHTF, you have a safe/safer place to go. At some point the economy is going to cause riots and much higher crime.
You guys need to use Blur. It's a relatively inexpensive service which will provide you with as many masked email addresses as you want and a masked phone number. You don't give out your real number to anyone, except maybe family. Like you I have many of these annoyance callers, the difference is I just go to my computer and switch off that caller. For them, the number just rings. Some of those callers have racked up 100's of calls on that masked number. Meanwhile my phone only rings 4 to 5 times daily, and only by people who I really want to hear from.
Unemployment survey question:
Did you work yesterday? If not, you do not count.
Were you able to work this week?
Did you turn down any offers of work this week?
Did you earn any money this week or receive any income from any source you did not tell us about?
Are you dead yet?
Know so many people that have exhausted unemployment insurance and are no longer considered to be unemployed.
The BLS can lie all they want but they can't fake demand.
At some point it translates to money velocity and profits.
Stock buy-backs are finite.
If Obama wants to make unemployment look even better he should cut the unemployment insurance to 2 weeks, then the unemployment rate would be nearly 0. The Wall Street algos would go crazy at a below 1% unemployment rate.
The shit show continues.
I swear I hadn't seen your comment when I made my 08:57 comment!
No problem.
I am sure the drug trade is hiring, they employ a few million, oh right, the rainbow kids are the customers. Guess you need to be a S.American gangsta or CIA to get into that raquet. Tough shit.
By the time Obozo leaves(?) the unemployment rate will be what? 4% or less. With 100 million no longer looking and 60% on the dole!
His MSM ball lickers will hail him as the greatest prez, that ever was or ever will be.
Hope&Change bitches!
Pick me....I know the answer!!!...pickme!!!
The Shitshow would not be called The Shitshow if it were not The Shitshow.
Why don't the data gatherers ask the people who are laid off?
Because they know the answer and don't want to face it.
Everything is rosey!!!
Maybe those falling off the table are going straight to disability and bypassing the unemployment merry-go-round all together.
RE: Initial Claims.
Years ago, before the growth of computers - the state unemployment compensation agencies used to "hand tally" initial and continued claims as they were filed in person. This led to great instances of human error in "hand tallying" and the resultant weekly counts.
Now all the figures are captured when automated computer entries are made for the claims, either initial or continued. So this should greatly increase the accuracy. ( unless the DOL purposely changes them in what would be one helluva conspiracy ).
So IMO, the discussion should remain with "why are so few initial claims filed when so many layoffs are announced and then become implemented". THIS is the question that should be addressed in seeking an answer. And it is a fascinating question with much fodder for varying viewpoints and explanations.
.................................................
BTW, this only has to do with claims filed and not "unemployment rate accuracy" issues.
Wherever somebody's fighting for a place to stand
Or a decent job or a helping hand
Wherever somebody's struggling to be free
Look in their eyes, Ma, and you'll see me"
There is a very valuable resource which goes a long way in answering this question:
It is the BLS/DOL description of its basic Current Population Survey (aka Household Survey). This is where the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, etc figures come from.
It is the most ILL-CONCEIVED, F*UCKED UP manner of collecting information imaginable. The bureaucrats who conceived this method and continue to use it for such vital information are intellectual cretins.
Except these figures are not based on any survey. This stuff, and the social security data, is the most accurate stuff we have. It involves actual money being paid out (or in, as in the case of SSA). We know who's collecting benefits, and we know who's submitted a W-2. This isn't guessing.
Once layoffs start in earnest, no fudging of stats will hide the reality. Think 2008 after Lehman.
"Once layoffs start in earnest, no fudging of stats will hide the reality. Think 2008 after Lehman."
Never, ever, under estimate the manipulation of statistics.
The unemployment figures will go up when TPTB seek to promote an agenda that required it. Ie more socialism, more regulation, etc. I am sure the weakening economy will get blamed on the pending debt ceiling crisis. The timing for another crisis is almost perfectly timed for the 2016 election. The DNC will blame the recession on the GOP for blocking/delaying the Debt Ceiling and use it to rally voters to boot the GOP out of congress.
I wonder if the reason for the end of QE and rate hike talks is a subtle/sly attempt to set up another crisis to manipulate the 2016 election.
Maybe the FEMA camps are up and running. When you get laid off, they send you there for "job training." You remove your shoes, empty your pockets in the plastic bin, queue up for a quick shower, get stuffed in an oven. Problem solved.
We're behaving like Nazi Germany everywhere else in the world, why not here?
Don't forget about having you're gold knocked out of your teeth.
Do we realy have to ask this question "So Who Is Lying?'? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yk-hivskli0