Presenting America's New Debt Ceiling: $19,600,000,000,000

Tyler Durden's picture

Even as the bond market has been rather concerned about another possible debt ceiling showdown as we showed before, and which earlier today prompted the Treasury to announce the purposefully dramatic step of postponing the auction of 2 Year Notes next week, the reality is that one way or another, with an equity-driven wake up call for the GOP or without, the debt ceiling will be raised.

The only question is how much.

As a reminder, the reason why the total US debt held by the public hasn't budged from $18.1 trillion since March 16, 2015 is because that is when the last debt ceiling limit was hit. In the seven month since, the US Treasury has been cruising along on emergency cash measures, even as the total debt - if only for reporting purposes - has not budged (in reality it has grown by about half a trillion).

It will budge very soon, because no matter what the outcome of the upcoming week of debt ceiling negotiations, one thing is certain: the US has to be able to borrow more in order to survive.

And as The Hill reported, when one gets beyond the traditional posturing, the outcome will be the following:

The House is expected as early as Friday to vote on a conservative debt-limit proposal even though chances are slim that the plan can pass the Senate. 


Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) told the GOP conference on Wednesday that he is expecting a vote on the Republican Study Committee (RSC) plan that would raise the debt limit to $19.6 trillion from $18.1 trillion and would run through March 2017.

Who will be the Republican to submit the unpopular measure? Most likely the outgoing speaker John Boehner, who will seal his tenure with this final act:  "With only two weeks to go, the pressure is on the House to pass a measure that raises the nation’s $18 trillion debt ceiling amid a search for the next Speaker."

Yes, the republicans will pretend to demand concessions, such as a balanced budet and other "sound money" conditions...

The proposal would require a House vote on a balanced-budget amendment by Dec. 31, would implement a short-term freeze on federal regulations through July 1, 2017, and would compel the House to remain in session without a break if spending bills aren't done by Sept. 1.

... but they won't get them because the corporations pulling the strings of every D.C. politicians are the biggest beneficiaries from US debt-funded largesse, especially if one throws in the occasional contained or not so contained war.

This means another victory for the Demorats who have required a "clean" debt raise. This is precisely what they will get, and why it will have to take place under John Boehner as Paul Ryan would surely tarnish his reputation with the Freedom Caucus if his first act is one seen as submission to the left.

Which means that the only certain outcome from the melodramatic debt ceiling fight over the next several days, is the following: the US is about to have a brand spanking new debt ceiling, one that should last it until March of 2017: $19,600,000,000,000.

If the chart below looks increasingly exponential, that is not a coincidence.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Dr. Engali's picture

Just get rid of the debt ceiling farce and let the market decide. I can dream can't I ?

two hoots's picture

It no longer matters what the score is but how much time is left on the clock.

Jethro's picture

They'll just try to print clocks then.

greenskeeper carl's picture

Thank god. I was getting worried for a minute. Glad to hear everything is fixed. Now we can get on with the recovery...

El Vaquero's picture

Just get rid of the fucking debt ceiling already FFS.  It's all a sham anyway and I grow tired of the Kabuki theater. 

Deathrips's picture

It was a close race and personally I was torn on how to vote on this.



Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Please, what is problem!? Just is make $20T. What is $400B between friend!?

GernB's picture

US Population 318 million

Debt 19 trillion

Debt per person 60K

Taxes collected each year per person 9K

We've spent the next 6.6 years of taxes.

BKbroiler's picture

Only congress could build a ceiling that looks like that.

I MISS KUDLOW's picture

That looks like a hockey stick i only like hockey sticks when Mario Lemieux Ryan Getzlaf or Eric Lindros is holding one...........

Manthong's picture

Well, at least it’s not over $20 Trillion..

That would be scary.

nink's picture

The only advice I ever got from my father was, If you owe someone $1000 you have a problem.  If you owe someone 20 Trillion dollars they have a problem.

Hype Alert's picture

That's totally worthless.  Not everybody pays taxes.  $19trillion isn't the total .gov debt.  Obamacare is going to blow the reported $19T out of the water.  Just wait until "FREE" college gets added to the bill.

Mentaliusanything's picture

If you ever want to calculate accurately the true inflation rate well here you have it as a catch all.


Overfed's picture

Exponential function, bitchez!

Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

Here's a fun game for you to play:


How much of the 19.6 trillion have you received vs. how much of it is YOUR personal liability?


[remember debt slave, NO division by Zero!]

Jethro's picture

Heck, you can't even count government employees (largest employer) in this equation either. Sure, they pay taxes (some of them at least), but every single penny they earn is from tax money.

NoPension's picture

I always have said, it doesn't count. Just giving back some of the vig.
And then, the Gold Plated Pensions are icing on the cake.

slovester's picture

If the "FREE" college is as *AFFORDABLE* as Obamacare, the debt load incurred from attending college is going to be parabolic from what it is now.

Handful of Dust's picture

That's why millions of illegals, aliens and refugees want to come here ... it's all FREE!

hongdo's picture

Or they could just raise taxes to $60K per year and put us all in debtors prison work camps when we can't pay.  We could make iphones to sell to the Chinese.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

@GernB: "Debt per person 60K" 

"per person".  That's a good one.  As if every 'person' will actually participate in servicing this odious Debt (which the masses have not approved actively, but do approve of with their apathy).  

Recognize that about half the population will not participate:

   - Those who can't (too poor, too old, out of workforce, on Gov payroll)

   - Those who won't (individual and organized criminals, and many corporations)

That leaves the other half:  the working stiffs, and small and mid-size entrepreneurs, who will cling on to the American Dream, until they can't.  It's human nature.

But, don't worry, Muppet-in-Chief Barry will pivot and help offload this Debt problem to all those schmucks, who will sign the TPP and TPIP agreements.  It is not the CNY but the USD that will be used for these for trade under these Agreements.  Petro-Dollar --> DOD-dollar.

You may now return to the more dramatic events/sideshows in the ME, to distract you from the real action:  preserving the USD hegemony, even if it means letting the Russian take out your stinking, toxic Trash for you.

Uhura!  Wan't some popcorn?

uhland62's picture

We may be forced to sign TPP but some people are already working on how it can be nixed afterwards.  

Arnold's picture

Where have I heard that strategy before?

(Audience quiet!)

uhland62's picture

Thank you, I was waiting for figures.

I'd like to make your day: 318 million inhabitants, 45 million bottom layer on food stamps = 273 million. Deduct children who do not pay tax (10 %?) = 245 million to carry that debt torch. My calculator doesn't do trillions, so you work it out yourselves.

What distraction can we construct now, Russia, Iraq, Syria, China, Brazil, Japan - more ideas?  

EddieLomax's picture

Looking at the info on US demographics its 19.8% of the population who are aged 14 and under, with another 7.1% between 15 and 19.

So assuming food stamps means > age 14, that leaves 219 million, so a tad worse, 13.1% are also over the age of 65 but some of them will be enjoying food stamps, so the figures are worse, I'd guess at under 200 million eligible under perfect conditions to repay that debt.

But I have to just echo what a commenter said above, thank goodness it wasn't 20 trillion, that would have been scary :D



Boris. Where have you are beink ?

Natasha and Squirrel have missed your Krap.

My heart is warm like currency bonfire for seeing you.

BillGrossJr.'s picture

Boris back from Ukraine peace mission

mc225's picture

if they make the ceiling infinite, then they probably can't 'sell' 't-bills'. if they keep saying, 'we're serious this time', apparently it soothes the 'markets' so they can keep 'selling' 't-bills'. ymmv.

Exalt's picture

All about maintaining confidence.

ajax's picture



Perpetual war, perpetual waste, perpetual multi-billionaires, perpetual debt.

What a fucking joke a national budget is. What a fucking joke.

America: here's one for you

Cardboard box economy gone utterly, utterly insane




knukles's picture

A zero here and a zero there to the left of the decimal and pretty soon y'all gotchur ass some real fuckin' money, boys!
Let's all hear it for Paul Ryan, your next Speaker of the House, who has voted for every last single Big Fuckin' Democratic Program Under the Sun.
He is Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama's favorite!
The GOP has sold out America right down the pike with the DNC.

(And if y'all think it don't make a difference, then you should be happy with the last 6 1/2 years.  Or maybe 12, or maybe 24, or maybe ....)

Bay of Pigs's picture

On January 20, 2009, the day Mr. Obama took office, the debt stood at $10.626 trillion.

"We cornholed some folks".

hawk nation's picture

Go ask most citizens and they will tell you Obama has reduced the deficit. You just cant fix stupid

Chupacabra-322's picture

Nope. You can't.

"All we have left is Ponzi & PsyOp."

JonNadler's picture

HAwk, you're absolutely right and after all hasn't the glorious NYT reported the deficit is down to like 400 B a year? And the debt keeps climbing by  a trillion a year

JonNadler's picture

after they rais it, watch the national debt shoot up higher in the next few days by hundreds of billions

EddieLomax's picture

So we know the debt in 2009, we know the debt in 2017, and we know it matches an exponential function and has done so ever since the sudden change the graph shows in 1974, a strange coincidence, I think not.

Knowing that it doubled in 8 years I still have trouble getting my head around the idea that it will double again in 8 more years, even though it has roughly done that for the past 40 years, it really is sobering.

redd_green's picture

Obama, and Bush before him, and Clinton before him... are all figureheads.  If you think Obama is the root of the problem, you don't understand the problem.   Figure out who really runs the Federal Reserve and you'll get someplace.

AGuy's picture

"A zero here and a zero there to the left of the decimal and pretty soon y'all gotchur ass some real fuckin' money, boys!"

Thank god we have a zero for president. Imagine what the debt would be  if we have a Hitler, demanding "Nein! Nein! Nein!"*

* Reference to the movie Downfall

Instead of sending fictious armies to defend germany, the US sends out ficticious currency to prop up the economy.


wizteknet's picture

heard a fighter was it a raptor


They should float the debt ceiling so it is always a long way up from the sheeple.

That way, no one panics until it all comes crashing down to the refrain of that good old standby song we all know and love - " Who knew ? "

HardAssets's picture

Who cares ?

Don't unfuned liabilities take it up to $100T or was that $ 200 T ?

Aren't all the depositors/taxpayers on the hook for derivatives losses ?

Its all fake 'debt' made up outta thin air, anyway.

A Big Fat Scam -- that people think is real.

Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

Definitely negative for gold and silver - bullish for the dollar and stocks 

Exalt's picture

Actually I think it's bullish for both at this point. We're in the Twilight Zone man...

AGuy's picture

Looks like Al gores hockey stick.


"keep your stick on the Ice" --Former Fed reserve member"


BillGrossJr.'s picture

This country borrows $1 million per minute. It's fucking over

Yohimbo's picture

when I wonder will we just go to the soul standard, currency backed by souls. 

I think we are very close. 

Ive been buying souls of CL, Im making a new market for the basis of the new global currency.

get in on the ground floor.