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S&P Breaks Key Technical Resistance, Now What?
S&P 500 Futures just broke above the 200-day moving-average for the first time since August 19th. With crude, bonds, and credit all decoupled from this exuberance, one wonders what happens next... though clearly all-time highs will be required to enable The Fed to raise rates in October (currently a 6% probability)
Charts: Bloomberg
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Bullish!
They peg it wherever they need it to be to keep the sheep pulling the cart?
Just a guess.
RIPS
WTI 20s on deck.
They can't raise rates now because the stock market has recovered.
See how easy that is kids?
pods
Bullshit!
there fixed it....
ES futures trading usually pulls back from this technical level when it is first tested from below.
Whew, I feel better now. Thanks for the tip. Moron.
Only Obama can destroy the vesitages of the real economy, while keeping the blacks, poor and middle class down, all while having them all blame each other at the same time. He is really the great deceiver.
Obama just pushed the futures above 200 DMA? Impeach!
Yep...market must be UP when liftoff occurs...action today is proof of upcoming liftoff, before year end because they said they would...
Yep...market must be UP when liftoff occurs...action today is proof of upcoming liftoff, before year end because they said they would...
Next, profits will be taken and the sheep shorn, lather, rinse, repeat.....
What are we going to do today Brain?
Same thing we do every day Pinky, buy moar stawks.
https://youtu.be/mYvAYwpUDv8
Look here baby, you hittin them corners to got damn fast. You need to slow this muthafucka down I almost spilt my yak on this $200 suit nigga. Come on get it together baby.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkqXgn50CjM
https://youtu.be/YUdktxbK9bA
Tractor Beam
And check out MCD. Wow, yup, the new economy. Good for the 1%. lol. The theater of the absurd.
It is the breakfast all day thingy.
I would think that Charmin, Scott Tissue or Cottenelle would be up as between this and Taco Bell breakfast, you can now have explosive diarrhea all day.
pods
Excellent time for the crash of all crashes.
yes it is
but apparently first need to build the buffer of all buffers
FANG doesn't seem to be participating in this. Wonder who is doing the driving?
Oh yeah. VIX is getting pounded like a failed sub-Saharan coup.
Draghi's talents at "whatever it takes" might win him the hat trick Nobel prize in economics, lliterature(for BS), and science(for defeating gravity)
<------DOW 20,000
<------DOW 14,000
wow. What else can you say? It was never like this 15 20 years ago.
if you would have bought some forward call option back on August 24, or, even 25th. Or, just threw a dart at the SnP, $COMPQ, $INDU, blindfolded, you'd be up some 30% - just for showing up - not even thinking hard. BTFD YSFI.
Most here were right as it appears to me.....
DOW 20,000
DOW 5,000!
I up arrowed you but, with htis caveat: BULL.......SHIT. :)
Super Mario
I love to fade breakouts but I'm done for this session...already short as I want to be until tomorrow.
Hmm .. not sure about futures, but my index charts show a 200-day SMA of closer to 2060, still a ways away. Do futures always foretell the future? Well, they've still got 4 hrs left ...
That's future enough, I s'pose.
There are at least 5 ways of calculating a moving average (see for example the book on technical analysis by Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist.) And there is no theoretical justification whatever why any xxx day moving average should have any predictive capability as a trend indicator. The only "validation" of MAs as " predictors" is the circular one that "market participants" (algobots) "believe that they work".
Of course MA crosses don't have predictive power (arbitraged away by algos a decade ago), but intraday traders can't ignore key DMAs, or MAs on other popular algo timeframes (60 min, 15 min) for potential bounces (e.g, today the Russell opened at the 50, then bounced lower off the 20). The key word is "potential", as many big boys have resting orders nearby, while others may have reversing orders just beyond as a fake-outs. DMAs will always be key touch-points, but whether as a rubber wall or a paper bag can only be determined after the close, auxiliary technicals, volume etc. needed to assess intraday likelihood.
Thus far, the reliable "Draghi Moar" candlestick pattern is playing out, but I'm a bit skeptical we end on the highs. we'll see ...
Interesting observations, thx. Me, I'm out of the monkey house - too much heat and droppings.
never too early to front run the Santa Claus rally!
200 DMA or any MA other has fuck all meaning except that algos are programmed with it.
MA's along with any and all other indicators provide information to traders. You want to know where money is flowing, you use indicators to give you clues. You want to execute a trade when the probability of success is in your favor. The more indicators that "line up" will give you more or less conviction on your trade (increased probability of success based on experience). Will your trade be guaranteed to succeed? Never. That's not the point. The point is to make a trade when the odds are in your favor. Indicators are just another tool to use.
Hysterical that 98% of you angry fucks are just clueless. Wah wah wah algos Wah wah wah market rigged. Rigged systems are the easiest to take advantage of, you just don't have the fucking talent and never did. Stick to manual labor...using your brain is not your strong suit.
If you've made good money trading, then I congratulate you. Not for me - don't have the talent.
well you are way ahead of so many people. If you don't have the talent. Stay out of the market. Plenty of ways to make your money work for YOU. I just find it funny that so many people are so butt hurt because they can't make money in the market..and blame banks or algos. Clearly the problem is with them..always easier to blame the big bad banks! Like they are placing your fucking orders.
Best of luck to you sir.
Absolutely disgraceful how dishonest this whole sytem has become!
Before we see a "crash" they will simply shut down the market.
(closed - for technical reasons)
THAT is absolutely the end game.
I think this is it. This run-up will NOT be sold. It won't be allowed.
For technical reasons, of course.
Yeah - I just can't wait until they have their "shut-down" and promise the market might open ... again ... some day ... in a few months ... and that becomes the new refrain, along with "yeah ... rates ... they will be going up some time next year ...".
Crash or Sudden Shut Down...I don't care
just END this Sham
Cannot think of a better way to crush Gold and Silver and get the suckers to add more to their credit cards. Another illusion of wealth from the confetti factory! Next up is Mr. Yellen and company and off we go to 20,000 during the worst economy in history!
Smart money is selling into this rally... I'm not selling my SPXS and SCO. Nope... Come pry it out of my dead cold margined fingers if you like... But I'm holding. Holding. Holding...
SPXS cost avg = 18.39 for ~2,000 shares (trading account) down $1,700
SCO cost avg = 79.50ish for 250 shares (in the green on this one...woo hoo) up 1,500 ish
RYTPX cost avg = 25.00ish for 2000 shares ish (IRA purchase) down $4,200 ish after todays calculation at end of day
Not adding to these positions here. There you go... transparency... net I'm down between 4 to 5 grand this month all by being short in some form or another. WE WILL RE-TEST THE LOWS.
Dont like Communism? Better get used to it and join the sheep parade.
You're trading SPXS on margin? Way too dangerous, in my opinion, but good luck to you.
so smart money is selling into the rally, but you're not? Does that imply you're not smart money?
And BTW, smart money is not selling into this rally - you're just telling yourself that to rationalize your own losses.
I'm short... so naturally I've already sold the rally. I'm buying Bear ETF's. 3X levered. I'm short. That means I'm not long. Which means I'm short. Which means I don't own stock, I sell it to buy it back later at a lower price. So selling the rally means smart money that "owns" stock is selling into strength. I'm short, which means I've "sold" into the rally, to buy back later... at a lower price. Which means I'm short. I haven't lost anything. Just like all those gold coins you have laying around that you haven't sold yet. It's still an ounce of gold right? You just lose your ass if you sell...right? I'm short.
The real reason for Mario Draghis games this morning have now been shown in a resurgence of the US dollar. The dishonesty is worldwide but all signs point to the Goldman sewage sytem!
"Goldman-Sucks" should be their real name ...
(but some will likely accuse me of attacking the "joos")
CAT up over 4.5%. That is all I need to know about "markets". Fucking farce.
another day where of course no one takes money off the table, yet if stawks were down this much, u know for sure that they would be flat by now.
cant ever let a 300 pt be wiped out,
drop nukes on these assholes right now!!!
Louse Yamada has been calling the rally for weeks now. According to her, it will test 2050-2060 and fail.
"Still, markets rallied, no doubt boosted by renewed expectations that a Fed rate hike is a 2016 event, even as central-bank officials and many economists cling to the idea that liftoff could take place before year end. Regardless of the outlook for monetary policy, clients of Louise Yamada Advisors were tipped off last weekend about what to expect in her monthly report titled, 'Bear Market in Progress; Rally at Hand?' [published October 3, 2015].
"While Louise contends that the highs of the six-year bull market have been seen, bear markets usually feature rallies. Even without speculation about the Fed's deferring liftoff, she spied trends in the market that pointed to bounces in deeply depressed materials and energy stocks ahead of last week's rebound. As for the latter, the Energy Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund (ticker: XLE) jumped 8% last week.
"The move could take the S&P 500 to the 2050 to 2060 range and the Dow Jones industrials to 17,500 - from Friday closes of 2014 and 17,084, respectively - but long-term sell signals remain in place. In her monthly missive, Louise writes that the risk is for a retracement to the levels where the major averages broke out from their long-term trading ranges in 2013. In round numbers, that would be back to 14,000 on the DJIA and 1600 on the S&P 500.
"'Traditionally, rallies in bear markets, if we're correct on that, can cause a return to complacency before the bear claw comes out again,' she related in an e-mail on Friday. Her key message to her clients: 'Capital preservation remains key.'
"Good advice, as the market provides higher prices for losers, which are tax-loss candidates, and winners, as well."
+1 But - I'll believe it when I see it.
2050-60: here we are. Declining trendline broken, 200-day recaptured... Just no sign of sellers yet. Usually she is very good: hope she's right this time too.
OK.....So I guess a rate hike is back on the table? Janet?
They don't even bother anymore
http://i.imgur.com/64jcjeS.png
And all w/o bullard suggesting qe4 ...
If i tilt the charts a little, it still looks like bulls and bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered.
Do you all believe me now that the Federal Reserve is buying stocks through their primary dealers to prop up the stock market?? No way these rallies are legtimate buying.
The Fed already buys bonds, why not stocks too??.. Whats to stop them?
Shall we call it the "Gartman Rally" ??.......
Its Groundhog Day!
It just keeps going and going and going like the Energizer Bunny. And the pain gets worse and worse and worse
until the only recourse is to FUCK. THE. PAIN. AWAY.
ZH: Check your data. As of this post, CQG for ES continous contract 200MA = 2054.38, Cash SPX = 2060.05. We got within ~5.5pts.